Subex Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Subex Ltd trades at ₹12.3, in a downtrend and 119 weeks into that stage. That is +6.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 79% of a 52-week range of ₹9 to ₹13. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 4 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 119 of stage 4. At ₹12.3 it trades +6.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 79% of its 52-week range (₹9–₹13).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 4 months the stock moved +27% while the NIFTY 500 moved +2% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 4 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Subex Ltd trades at 21.7× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (53rd percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 20.7×, measured across 9.6 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 21.7× is mid-range by its own standards (53rd percentile), against a long-run median of 20.7× measured over 9.6 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources do not share enough overlapping reported history to be compared. A figure nobody could check is not used to price growth — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Subex Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 9 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

4-Factor Sector Score

50.0/100 — rank 33 of 63 in IT - Software · 53% evidence confidence

Subex Ltd scores 50.0 out of 100 against the 63 companies it is compared with in IT - Software, ranking 33. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 19.8 + 8.7 + 9.9 + 11.6 = 50. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Subex Ltd reported ₹73.0 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +3.3% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at −1.4% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹279 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹279 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹279 Cr (−2.4% on the year), capping 10 years at −1.4% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹73.0 Cr, +3.3% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −2.3% growth against the decade's −1.4% — the current year is running in line with its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −2.3% over the last 4 quarters against −5.1%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Subex Ltd's operating margin is 12.6% in the Mar 26 quarter, +31.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −11.0% to 28.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 12.6%, +31.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −11.0%–28.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +31.0 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.0 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Subex Ltd earned ₹9.9 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹29.0 Cr. That is 13.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost ₹17.6 Cr. 7 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Mar 26 profit was ₹9.9 Cr, null year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹29.0 Cr (null).

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 152% of Subex Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹72.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹29.0 Cr of profit. After ₹23.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹49.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹72.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹29.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹49.0 Cr after ₹23.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 152% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 152%: the cash cycle stretched 24 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Subex Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 122 days in FY26, up from 98 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹−115 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹279 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹0.8 Cr, so roughly ₹93.0 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 122 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 122 days, looser than FY21's 98.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹279 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹0.8 Cr — so the 122-day loop keeps roughly ₹93.0 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹−115 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹42.0 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.⚠ unverified

Subex Ltd earns a ROCE of 13% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −6% in FY23. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −7.6 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 10.4% net margin on 0.51× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 13%, recovered from a FY23 trough of −6% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 10.4% net margin × 0.51× asset turns × 1.61× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 8.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 4.4% − 12.0% = a −7.6 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.⚠ unverified

Subex Ltd carries total debt of ₹28.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹343 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.08 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.03 in FY22 to 0.08 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹28.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹343 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.08. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.03 (FY22) to 0.08 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Subex Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Domestic institutions moved +0.0 points over the same window, to 0.0%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −0.5 points over 8 quarters to 0.6%; Domestic institutions: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 0.0%.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Subex Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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