Sector Alpha Week of 2026-07-31
Bitcoin · alt breadth · functional theme rotation

Crypto market analysis

Is crypto risk-on, Bitcoin-led or in alt season?

Bottom line

RISK OFF. Bitcoin is below its 200-day average by 12.1%; the liquid-alt basket has -21.6% over 90 days; 20.8% of 159 liquid alts are above their own 200-day averages; and alts show -1.9% relative strength versus Bitcoin. Treat isolated alt rallies as countertrend until Bitcoin reclaims the 200-day average and breadth clears 50%.

Regime
RISK OFF
canonical BTC / alt state
BTC vs 200-DMA
-12%
below trend · 2026-07-31
Alt breadth
20.8%
159 liquid alts
Alts vs BTC · 90d
-1.9%
relative strength
01 · price and participation together

Is risk spreading beyond Bitcoin?

Not yet — participation is still narrow: 20.8% of 159 liquid alts are above their own 200-day average. Bitcoin is below its 200-day average by 12.1%, and the alt basket's 90-day relative strength versus Bitcoin is -1.9%. Readings are as of 2026-07-31.

What the numbers say: Bitcoin’s 90-day return is -20%, the alt basket’s is -22%, and 20.8% of liquid alts are above their 200-day average.

9751422082742021-08-132022-08-122023-08-112024-08-022025-08-012026-07-31
BitcoinLiquid alt index

Weekly observations, rebased to 100 over the visible five-year window. The alt index is equal weighted; missing weeks break the line.

02 · current-date functional taxonomy

Which crypto themes are leading Bitcoin?

Lending ranks first of the 19 functional crypto themes at 77.9/100, with +41% versus Bitcoin over 13 weeks and 57% of its rated members above trend. Leadership /35 + participation /30 + persistence /20 + liquidity /15. It ranks research attention, not portfolio action, and every row prints the exact sum.

1
Lending
11/14 rated · FOLKS leads
35.0 + 17.1 + 14.8 + 10.9 = 77.9
+41%
13w vs BTC
57%
breadth
+12%
30d median
$253.1M
daily volume
2
Liquid Staking
9/12 rated · JTO leads
35.0 + 4.3 + 11.8 + 10.3 = 61.4
+81%
13w vs BTC
14%
breadth
+4.5%
30d median
$132.6M
daily volume
3
Privacy
24/27 rated · ZAMA leads
28.2 + 5.2 + 8.6 + 12.0 = 54.0
+15%
13w vs BTC
17%
breadth
-3.5%
30d median
$853.1M
daily volume
4
Meme
52/94 rated · UTYA leads
27.7 + 6.8 + 7.2 + 12.1 = 53.6
+15%
13w vs BTC
23%
breadth
-7.1%
30d median
$947.6M
daily volume
5
DEX
33/48 rated · HDX leads
25.4 + 4.3 + 9.9 + 10.7 = 50.4
+11%
13w vs BTC
14%
breadth
-0.1%
30d median
$202.2M
daily volume
6
AI
83/110 rated · VELVET leads
25.9 + 5.4 + 6.4 + 12.1 = 49.8
+12%
13w vs BTC
18%
breadth
-8.9%
30d median
$997.2M
daily volume
7
Oracle
7/8 rated · WIN leads
19.0 + 5.0 + 10.5 + 9.4 = 43.9
+2.2%
13w vs BTC
17%
breadth
+1.2%
30d median
$45.5M
daily volume
8
Exchange Tokens
20/25 rated · OKB leads
15.3 + 4.5 + 9.6 + 12.3 = 41.8
-3.1%
13w vs BTC
15%
breadth
-0.9%
30d median
$1.3B
daily volume
9
Payments
10/13 rated · AIAT leads
20.8 + 3.0 + 8.8 + 9.0 = 41.6
+4.7%
13w vs BTC
10%
breadth
-3.0%
30d median
$26.8M
daily volume
10
DePIN
21/24 rated · GEOD leads
16.6 + 7.1 + 6.6 + 10.3 = 40.7
-1.3%
13w vs BTC
24%
breadth
-8.5%
30d median
$126.4M
daily volume
11
DeFi
31/46 rated · FLIP leads
16.5 + 2.3 + 7.6 + 11.4 = 37.8
-1.4%
13w vs BTC
8%
breadth
-6.1%
30d median
$429.6M
daily volume
12
Layer 1
63/77 rated · WLD leads
12.0 + 2.1 + 8.3 + 14.5 = 36.9
-7.8%
13w vs BTC
7%
breadth
-4.3%
30d median
$15.2B
daily volume
13
Gaming
36/43 rated · B3 leads
11.8 + 2.7 + 8.0 + 10.6 = 33.1
-8.2%
13w vs BTC
9%
breadth
-5.1%
30d median
$180.0M
daily volume
14
RWA
32/42 rated · ONDO leads
11.2 + 2.2 + 7.3 + 11.5 = 32.2
-9.1%
13w vs BTC
7%
breadth
-6.7%
30d median
$522.0M
daily volume
15
Layer 2
33/48 rated · COTI leads
9.5 + 3.8 + 6.8 + 10.3 = 30.4
-11%
13w vs BTC
13%
breadth
-8.1%
30d median
$123.8M
daily volume
16
Wallets
7/10 rated · VCNT leads
7.2 + 0.0 + 9.3 + 8.9 = 25.4
-15%
13w vs BTC
0%
breadth
-1.7%
30d median
$25.5M
daily volume
17
Interoperability/Bridges
9/11 rated · DBR leads
5.5 + 0.0 + 5.2 + 10.1 = 20.7
-17%
13w vs BTC
0%
breadth
-12%
30d median
$95.2M
daily volume
18
Perps/Derivatives
8/12 rated · GNS leads
6.2 + 0.0 + 3.4 + 9.6 = 19.2
-16%
13w vs BTC
0%
breadth
-16%
30d median
$54.7M
daily volume
19
NFT
6/9 rated · SWFTC leads
0.0 + 0.0 + 6.8 + 9.4 = 16.2
-28%
13w vs BTC
0%
breadth
-8.0%
30d median
$42.7M
daily volume

Only sectors with at least five current assets carrying comparable 90-day return data are ranked. No stale sector row is carried forward.

03 · liquid asset-level tape

Where is leadership liquid enough to matter?

Velvet leads the crypto tape on Bitcoin-relative strength at +342% over 90 days, top of 507 coins that clear this page's data screen: priced this week, no gap over 30 days in the 95-day window, and some traded volume. This is the tape layer only: native activity belongs on the theme pages, because protocol coverage differs sharply by functional theme.

CoinThemePrice7d30d90d1yRS vs BTC200-DMA30d vol30d median volume
Velvet VELVETAI$0.4115-7.9%-73%+322%+732%+342%Above443%$10.9M
SentismAI SENTISAI$0.2057+0.0%+100%+196%+216%Above64%$2.6M
KAITO KAITOAI$1.06+11%+71%+128%-8.9%+148%Above147%$45.2M
Utya UTYAMeme$0.0402+5.8%+139%+125%+2,810%+145%Above270%$634.7K
Allora ALLOAI$0.2720-47%+20%+122%+142%Above250%$43.3M
Hydration HDXDEX$0.0082+36%+111%+121%-13%+141%Above83%$8.6K
Zama ZAMAPrivacy$0.0523-2.0%+56%+93%+113%Above100%$25.8M
OpenServ SERVAI$0.0241-23%-40%+70%-45%+90%Below114%$698.5K
MimbleWimbleCoin MWCPrivacy$10.85+10.0%+58%+63%-70%+83%Above97%$735
Chainflip FLIPDeFi$0.3248+9.7%+13%+58%-29%+78%Above33%$104.0K
B3 (Base) B3Gaming$0.0005-5.1%-5.1%+57%-85%+77%Below129%$5.4M
Geodnet GEODDePIN$0.1926-1.3%-9.7%+53%+22%+73%Above81%$377.2K
Law Blocks AI LBTAI$0.2959-0.1%+0.0%+46%+121%+66%Above2%$723.6K
ZIGChain ZIGAI$0.0404-1.5%-20%+45%-60%+66%Below45%$2.9M
FOLKS FOLKSLending$1.96+2.0%+5.6%+45%+65%Above86%$1.7M
WINkLink WINOracle$0.0000+22%+33%+40%-51%+60%Above55%$6.0M
Ondo ONDORWA$0.3898+1.7%+20%+38%-58%+58%Above89%$92.9M
COINDEPO COINDEPOLending$0.1014+3.0%+27%+37%+57%Above29%$1.5M
Jito JTOLiquid Staking$0.5145-15%-33%+35%-69%+56%Above97%$32.7M
Manifesting MANIFESTMeme$0.0002+7.2%-4.1%+34%-76%+55%Above95%$32
Showing 20 of 80 assets

Not rated — and why

183 of the 690 coins tracked here are not rated this week: 134 have no price within 7 days, 1 carries a hole longer than 30 days inside the 95-day window, 48 report no traded volume. The largest are named here; a coin is not rated when its evidence is missing, never when its reading is merely weak.

CoinMarket capReasonDetail
Hyperliquid HYPE$15.8BNo price this weekNo traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
Rain RAIN$10.2BNo price this weekLast traded price is 2026-04-29, 93 days before this page's 2026-07-31 reading.
Canton CC$5.4BNo price this weekNo traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
Gram (prev. Toncoin) GRAM$4.9BHole in the price historyIts price history has a 36-day hole inside the 95-day window these readings are measured over.
LAB LAB$4.1BNo price this weekNo traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
MemeCore M$1.9BNo traded volume reportedNo traded volume is reported on most of the last 30 days, so it has no liquidity reading.
Sky SKY$1.3BNo traded volume reportedNo traded volume is reported on most of the last 30 days, so it has no liquidity reading.
Pi Network PI$1.3BNo price this weekNo traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
Audiera BEAT$930.3MNo price this weekNo traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
​​Stable STABLE$827.6MNo price this weekNo traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
Jupiter JUP$783.1MNo traded volume reportedNo traded volume is reported on most of the last 30 days, so it has no liquidity reading.
ADI ADI$723.8MNo price this weekNo traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.

The 171 smaller coins not shown here are excluded for the same stated reasons.

04 · what is measured and what is not

How should this page be used?

Use this page as a research queue, not an instruction set: it ranks where crypto attention is currently justified by price, participation and liquidity evidence. The regime is context and never a hidden addition to a theme score, each asset carries exactly one canonical functional theme, and 4 named datasets are unavailable rather than inferred. Evidence runs through 2026-07-31.

Market contextBTC trend, alt breadth, alt-vs-BTC relative strength and the liquid-universe count set the regime. The regime is context, not a hidden addition to theme scores.
Theme membershipEach asset receives one canonical functional theme. Pegged, wrapped and receipt tokens are excluded.
FreshnessPrice and regime: 2026-07-31. Market-cap snapshot: 2026-07-04.
Decision useScores rank what deserves research. They are not entry, exit, sizing or leverage instructions.
Unavailable, therefore not inferred: Market-cap data is a dated universe snapshot; historical circulating supply and FDV are not held. Today’s top-1,000 universe and today’s category tags are projected backward, so long history contains survivorship and taxonomy hindsight. Funding, open interest, liquidations, exchange flows, unlocks and developer activity are not available and are not inferred. Network fees and protocol revenue are operating evidence, not automatic token-holder cash flow.
Questions the page should answer directly

Crypto analysis FAQs

These 16 answers cover the questions this page can settle from data it holds — what the category is, how the score is built, what the coverage gaps are, and what would change the read. Every answer below is also present in the page’s FAQ schema and in its plain-text rendition. None of them is a recommendation.

Is crypto risk-on now?

RISK OFF as of 2026-07-31. Bitcoin is below its 200-day average; alt breadth is 20.8%; and the liquid-alt basket’s 90-day relative strength versus Bitcoin is -1.9%.

Is this Bitcoin-led or alt season?

RISK OFF is the canonical state. Alt season requires Bitcoin risk-on plus broad alt participation; a narrow alt rally with breadth below 50% is not called alt season.

How many liquid altcoins are above the 200-day average?

20.8% of 159 liquid eligible altcoins are above their 200-day averages as of 2026-07-31.

Which crypto theme ranks strongest now?

Lending ranks first at 77.89/100: 35.0 + 17.1 + 14.8 + 10.9 = 77.9. Its 13-week return versus Bitcoin, on an equal-weight index of its current rated members, is +40.8% with 57.1% breadth.

Why are some crypto coins not rated on this page?

183 of the 690 coins tracked here are not rated this week: 134 have no price within 7 days, 1 carries a hole longer than 30 days inside the 95-day window, 48 report no traded volume. A coin is rated only if it has a traded price within 7 days of 2026-07-31, no hole longer than 30 days inside the 95-day window these readings are measured over, and some traded volume across the last 30 days.

What does alt breadth mean?

Alt breadth is the share of the liquid eligible altcoin universe trading above its own 200-day moving average. It measures participation, not index return.

Why benchmark crypto themes against Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is the opportunity-cost benchmark for crypto risk. A sector can rise in dollars yet destroy relative capital if Bitcoin rises faster.

How is the alt index built?

It is a chain-linked equal-weight index of liquid non-stable altcoins. Equal weighting prevents Bitcoin-sized assets from hiding broad weakness.

Are stablecoins included?

No. Stablecoins, wrapped assets, liquid-staking receipts and tokenized securities are excluded because they do not have independent price discovery.

How are illiquid coins handled?

The regime and public sector ranks require liquid current data. Asset pages still show thin names, but the score labels sub-$5 million median daily volume as research-only.

Why can a sector rise while breadth falls?

A small number of large or fast-rising tokens can lift a sector index while most members remain below their trend. The page therefore reads return and breadth together.

Does Sector Alpha have funding rates or open interest?

Not in the current public research store. Funding, open interest, liquidations and unlock schedules are named as unavailable and are never inferred from spot price.

Does crypto have a P/E or PEG ratio?

No company-style P/E or PEG is used. Crypto pages compare network fees, protocol revenue, token-liquidity and BTC-relative price evidence with explicit token-accrual caveats.

How often is the crypto MLA page updated?

The page is rebuilt every weekday, and the CDN cache is invalidated when that rebuild publishes. Price and regime evidence currently run through 2026-07-31; market-cap metadata is separately dated 2026-07-04.

Why can dates differ across crypto metrics?

Spot prices, derived technicals, market-cap snapshots, protocol activity and chain activity come from separate refresh jobs. The page shows each freshness date rather than pretending they share one as-of date.

Which crypto themes are beating Bitcoin?

8 of the 19 crypto themes tracked here are ahead of Bitcoin over 13 weeks. Liquid Staking leads at +81.2%, followed by Lending at +40.8% and Privacy at +15.3%. Bitcoin is itself below its 200-day average, so being ahead of it does not mean rising.

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