Nelcast Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Nelcast Ltd trades at ₹121, in a confirmed uptrend and 16 weeks into that stage. That is −5.1% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 45% of a 52-week range of ₹89 to ₹160. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (6 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 16 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹121 it trades −5.1% versus its 200-day average and sits at 45% of its 52-week range (₹89–₹160).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +106% while the NIFTY 500 moved +276% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (6 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-25) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Nelcast Ltd trades at 25.7× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (56th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 24.6×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 25.7× is mid-range by its own standards (56th percentile), against a long-run median of 24.6× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +29.8% against a −28.2% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +4.8%/yr price move, ~+35.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−30.5 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +6.4%/yr price move, ~+2.6%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+3.8 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources do not share enough overlapping reported history to be compared. A figure nobody could check is not used to price growth — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Nelcast Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −31.5% at the trough to −1.8% off a 5-quarter-old trough, ROCE holding at 11.0%. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

41.7/100 — rank 14 of 19 in Castings, Forgings & Fastners · 87% evidence confidence

Nelcast Ltd scores 41.7 out of 100 against the 19 companies it is compared with in Castings, Forgings & Fastners, ranking 14. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 15.3 + 12.3 + 11.8 + 2.3 = 41.7. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Nelcast Ltd reported ₹341 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +2.8% year on year. That is the 3rd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 9.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,328 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,338 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,328 Cr (+6.1% on the year), capping 10 years at 9.0% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹341 Cr, +2.8% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +4.5% growth against the decade's 9.0% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +4.2% over the last 4 quarters against +2.5%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit −1.8% vs −13.7%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Nelcast Ltd's operating margin is 4.6% in the Jun 26 quarter, −3.9 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 6.0% to 11.0%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 4.6%, −3.9 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 6.0%–11.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −3.9 pp year on year while gross margin went −1.8 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Nelcast Ltd earned ₹5.1 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −58.9% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹48.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 4.1%. That is 1.5% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹12.5 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹5.1 Cr, −58.9% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹48.0 Cr (+29.7%), and the 10-year compound rate is 4.1%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +2.8% and the margin −3.9 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +17.1% vs revenue +4.5%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 156% of Nelcast Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹92.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹48.0 Cr of profit. After ₹16.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹76.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹92.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹48.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹76.0 Cr after ₹16.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 156% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 156%: the cash cycle tightened 34 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Nelcast Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 51 days in FY26, down from 85 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹107 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹1,328 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹3.6 Cr, so roughly ₹186 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 98 days, inventory at 120 days — roughly 3.9 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 51 days, tighter than FY21's 85.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 120 days to sell; customers pay about 98 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 167 days — netting out to the 51-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹1,328 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹3.6 Cr — so the 51-day loop keeps roughly ₹186 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹107 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹76.0 Cr of depreciation — building somewhat ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.⚠ unverified

Nelcast Ltd earns a ROCE of 11% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 5% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −4.0 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 3.6% net margin on 1.11× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 11%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 5% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 3.6% net margin × 1.11× asset turns × 2.01× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 8.0% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 8.0% − 12.0% = a −4.0 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.⚠ unverified

Nelcast Ltd carries total debt of ₹257 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹599 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.43. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.63 in FY22 to 0.43 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹257 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹599 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.43. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.63 (FY22) to 0.43 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Nelcast Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Domestic institutions moved −0.4 points over the same window, to 0.1%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −0.4 points over 8 quarters to 0.4%; Domestic institutions: −0.4 points over 8 quarters to 0.1%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 74.9%.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Nelcast Ltd: the Z-score reads 3.14. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 3.14 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 3.14.

Frequently asked questions