Amic Forging Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Amic Forging Ltd trades at ₹1,382, in a downtrend and 6 weeks into that stage. That is −2.1% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 62% of a 52-week range of ₹929 to ₹1,653. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (10 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 6 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹1,382 it trades −2.1% versus its 200-day average and sits at 62% of its 52-week range (₹929–₹1,653).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 2.2 years the stock moved +399% while the NIFTY 500 moved +20% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (10 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2025-12-26) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Amic Forging Ltd trades at 58.9× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (64th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 49.7×, measured across 2.2 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 58.9× is mid-range by its own standards (64th percentile), against a long-run median of 49.7× measured over 2.2 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +157.0% against a +24.6% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Amic Forging Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 4 quarters across 1 curve, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

4-Factor Sector Score

No sector-relative score — Amic Forging Ltd is not present in the sector comparison for Castings, Forgings & Fastners.

The score is a rank WITHIN a peer set: every metric is scored by percentile against the other members. Without the peer set there is no score to state, so none is invented here.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Amic Forging Ltd reported ₹67.0 Cr of revenue in the Sep 25 quarter, +4.7% year on year. Over 5 years it has compounded at 56.0% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at ₹120 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹264 Cr.

FY25 revenue came in at ₹120 Cr (−4.8% on the year), capping 5 years at 56.0% compound. The latest quarter (Sep 25) printed ₹67.0 Cr, +4.7% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +1.7% growth against the decade's 56.0% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Amic Forging Ltd's operating margin is 27.0% in the Sep 25 quarter, +8.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 6 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 3.0% to 23.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 27.0%, +8.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 6 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 3.0%–23.0%, and FY25's 23.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +8.5 pp year on year while gross margin went +11.5 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Amic Forging Ltd earned ₹12.0 Cr of net profit in the Sep 25 quarter, −47.8% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹36.0 Cr. That is 17.9% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹7.0 Cr.

Sep 25 profit was ₹12.0 Cr, −47.8% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed ₹36.0 Cr (+157.1%).

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +4.7% and the margin +8.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +88.8% vs revenue +1.7%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 27% of Amic Forging Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY25 that was ₹6.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹36.0 Cr of profit. After ₹32.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹−26.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of ₹6.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹36.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−26.0 Cr after ₹32.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 27% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at 27%: the cash cycle stretched 44 days between FY20 and FY25 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 44 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Amic Forging Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 88 days in FY25, up from 44 days in FY20. Capital spending ran ₹41.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY25 sales of ₹120 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹0.3 Cr, so roughly ₹29.0 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY25: debtors at 83 days, inventory at 77 days — roughly 2.5 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 88 days, looser than FY20's 44.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 77 days to sell; customers pay about 83 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 72 days — netting out to the 88-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY25 sales of ₹120 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹0.3 Cr — so the 88-day loop keeps roughly ₹29.0 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹41.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹5.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹6.0 Cr (FY25) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Amic Forging Ltd earns a ROCE of 28% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 13% in FY21. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 30.0% net margin on 0.78× asset turns.

FY25 ROCE is 28%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 13% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 30.0% net margin × 0.78× asset turns × 1.23× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 28.8% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Amic Forging Ltd carries ₹0.0 Cr of borrowings against ₹124 Cr of equity in FY25, a debt-to-equity of 0.00. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹2.0 Cr to ₹0.0 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹41.0 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY25: borrowings of ₹0.0 Cr against equity of ₹124 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.00. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹2.0 Cr to ₹0.0 Cr while capital spending ran ₹41.0 Cr in just the last 3 — the build-out is being paid for out of cash, not debt.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 6.8 points of Amic Forging Ltd over 4 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 0.1% of the company. Domestic institutions moved −2.6 points over the same window, to 0.5%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −6.8 points over 4 quarters to 0.1%; Domestic institutions: −2.6 points over 4 quarters to 0.5%; Promoters: +0.2 points over 4 quarters to 58.0%.

🚨 Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (−6.8 points), alongside domestic institutions (−2.6 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Amic Forging Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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