M M Forgings Ltd (MMFL) — share price & stock analysis

Market cap

₹2,231 Cr

P/E

22.7×

ROE

10.5%

vs own 10-yr valuation

80th pctile

Book value / share

₹203

EPS (TTM)

₹20.4

10-yr median P/E

19.1×

Revenue (FY26)

₹1,590 Cr

Profit after tax (FY26)

₹99 Cr

Weinstein stage

Stage 2 (24 weeks)

Data as of

1 July 2026

4 of the 6 things we track are currently moving the right way — most of the dashboard is turning up.

Where the levels actually stand: ROCE 9% — weak; real debt (1.1× equity); margins mid-band. Momentum says which way things are moving; these say where they are.

Read this number for what it is: it measures the DIRECTION of change, not the quality of the business. A mediocre business getting better scores high here; a great one having a soft quarter scores low. Profit, sales and margins count double.

The market has pre-paid for growth that hasn’t arrived yet

Since Mar 2016, the stock is up 298% while earnings per share grew 96%. The difference is re-rating — investors paying more for the same rupee of profit.pricettm_eps

That works until it doesn’t: from here, earnings have to do the lifting, because the multiple has already done its part.

Today’s P/E of 22.7× means the market is paying up — this is the expensive end of its own 10-year history (80th percentile).pe_ratio

Price is the weekly close (₹). EPS is trailing-twelve-month profit per share, anchored on Screener's own snapshots; between snapshots it is filled from price ÷ P/E (an exact identity), and any fill straying more than 18% from the neighbouring snapshots is dropped rather than shown. The lower panel is the P/E — what the market pays per rupee of profit; the dotted line is its long-run median (19.1×).

An uptrend that has held for 24 weeks

Every stock cycles through the same four seasons — a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Right now this one is in Stage 2: advancing, 24 weeks in, confirmed.stage

The price sits above its rising 200-day average (₹422 today) — trends like this persist more often than they reverse, which is why the system rides them instead of guessing the top.dma_200

Beating NIFTY 500 for 31 weeks — relative strength is the market’s live opinion, and right now it is on this stock’s side.rs_mansfield

What would end it: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the house exit rule — mechanical, no debates.dma_200

Profits have now fallen two years running

Over 16 years, sales went from ₹177 Cr to ₹1,590 Cr (about 15% a year), and profit from ₹14.0 Cr to ₹99.0 Cr.revenuenet_profit

Sales grew 16% last quarter

Mar 26 sales were ₹430 Cr, up 16% on the same quarter last year.revenue

Margins are holding steady

Of every ₹100 of sales, the company keeps ₹18.8 as operating profit (a year ago it kept ₹19.7).opm_pct

Profit jumped 36% — mostly from the tax bill

Mar 26 profit after tax was ₹45.0 Cr, up 36% year on year.net_profit

The profits are real — they turn into cash

Over the last 5 profitable years, the business reported ₹575 Cr of profit and collected ₹871 Cr of operating cash — about 151% conversion.operating_cash_flownet_profit

One asterisk on that strength: suppliers are being paid 21 days later than a year ago (95 → 116 days). Cash flattered by stretching payables is real cash — but it is borrowed timing, not extra earning power.payable_days

The cash cycle is tightening — money comes home faster

One rupee now takes about 160 days to go out the door as materials and come back as collected cash — down from 178 days the year before.cash_conversion_cycle

The biggest mover: customers taking longer to pay (84 → 105 days).debtor_days

Building hard — new capacity is under construction

The productive asset base has gone from ₹82.0 Cr (FY07) to ₹1,101 Cr, with another ₹337 Cr of capacity under construction right now.fixed_assetscwip

Work-in-progress is 31% of the existing asset base — that is a serious bet on future demand. Capacity like this shows up in sales with a lag; it is tomorrow’s growth being paid for today.cwip

The build is bigger than the cash engine: investing outflows (₹771 Cr) exceeded operating cash (₹561 Cr) over the last 3 years — the difference comes from debt or shareholders.investing_cash_flowoperating_cash_flow

Carrying real debt

For every ₹100 shareholders have put in (and left in), the company has borrowed ₹110 — total borrowings have grown from ₹63.0 Cr to ₹1,074 Cr over the window.borrowings

Every ₹100 kept in the business earns just ₹9

Return on capital employed is 9.0% (a year ago: 12.0%). This is the single best test of business quality: what the company earns on the money it keeps.roce_pct

Institutions bought the story, then started backing away

Promoters hold 56.3%, essentially unchanged. Foreign funds own 1.9%, domestic funds 8.4%.promoters_pctfiis_pctdiis_pct

Meanwhile domestic funds have been the sellers — from 16.6% to 8.4% over the window. Someone on the other side of the table disagrees; both sides count.diis_pct

Interesting, not obvious

The numbers are genuinely mixed, and the price already assumes the good news continues.

Best thing in the data: free cash flow rising (₹−176 Cr → ₹49.0 Cr).operating_cash_flow

Biggest worry: foreign-fund holding falling (3.1% → 1.9%).fiis_pct

Machine-written research from Screener data — every number traces to its source column. Sector Alpha is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell. Not investment advice.

Straight answers from the data