Happy Forgings Ltd
HAPPYFORGEHappy Forgings Ltd's price has outrun its earnings. +131.6% in a year against EPS +12.6% — the market is paying now for delivery later.
The sharpest disagreement: the price moved +131.6% in a year while annual EPS moved +12.6% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings.
The price is in a confirmed uptrend (44 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 98th percentile of its own 3-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read improving — profit +37.9% year on year, and 114% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
Happy Forgings Ltd trades at ₹2,169, in a confirmed uptrend and 44 weeks into that stage. That is +43.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 89% of a 52-week range of ₹1,014 to ₹2,307. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 54 straight weeks.
Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 44 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹2,169 it trades +43.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 89% of its 52-week range (₹1,014–₹2,307).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 2.7 years the stock moved +111% while the NIFTY 500 moved +18% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 54 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
Story check
Happy Forgings Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 31 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: Not stated in the research file. Still open: Q3 FY27 to Q3 FY28 slip already documented; further delay would defer Rs 250 Cr+ peak-revenue contribution
What is proven. See the research file
What is not proven yet. Q3 FY27 to Q3 FY28 slip already documented; further delay would defer Rs 250 Cr+ peak-revenue contribution
Layer 1 read, 19 July 2026 — KEEP. Real data-center mix upgrade, but the market already paid for it — top-decile PE, payoff 8 quarters out. Happy Forgings has a genuine earnings inflection (OPM stepped to 31% and EPS rose 44% off its Dec-2023 trough) driven by a cited Rs 950 Cr order book at a 38-43% realization premium and data-center genset components at 230-310% premium. The catch is timing and price: the transformational revenue only starts Q3 FY28 (slipped a full year), operating margin is already at the top of its own band (RED margin_at_peak dig, unresolved), and the stock trades at PE 50.4 (95th percentile, NEAR_PEAK) with an IMPOSSIBLE implied growth rate — so multiple expansion can't add to returns from here.
What would change Layer 1’s mind. Either direction: (a) OPM falls below 28% for 2 consecutive quarters — the margin-at-peak reversion the RED dig warns of, which breaks the mix-uplift story; or (b) the data-center/heavy-engine program slips beyond FY28 or the order book is cut, removing the fuel that justifies the top-decile multiple.
Layer 2 read, 19 July 2026 — BENCH. Real improving engine but a peak multiple with the transformational payoff still two years out and a tariff overhang — bench. Happy Forgings' earnings are genuinely still climbing (EPS 6.15->8.86, OPM 27%->31%) on a real premium-mix order book (Rs 950 cr at Rs 340-350/kg vs Rs 245/kg today). But the multiple is already NEAR_PEAK at the 95.5th percentile with the price at its high, the 230-310%-premium data-center revenue is 8+ quarters out and already slipped a full year, and the sector wind is NEUTRAL because a HIGH-severity US Section-232 tariff overhang offsets the China+1 story. Extension plus a far-out catalyst on a fully-priced name benches it; earnings keep confirming so it is not a drop.
What would change Layer 2’s mind. If the US Section-232 tariff overhang resolves favourably AND the heavy-component/data-center revenue starts landing ahead of the slipped Q3-FY28 schedule (premium realizations converting toward the Rs 340-350/kg book) with EPS re-accelerating, the extended-multiple BENCH flips to ADVANCE. A realized tariff hit compressing the export book would flip it to DROP.
Sources: our stock research file (31 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.
Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.
Happy Forgings Ltd reported ₹449 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +26.8% year on year. That is the 11th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 8 years it has compounded at 13.8% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,546 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,641 Cr.
Why this happened. Order book Rs 950 Cr secured at Rs 340-350 per kg versus current Rs 245 per kg; Rs 140 Cr executed in last 4 months as of May 2026; 2.5-3 year execution window; mix-shift drives gross margin accretion as higher-realization products scale
FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,546 Cr (+9.7% on the year), capping 8 years at 13.8% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹449 Cr, +26.8% year on year — the 11th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +15.6% growth against the decade's 13.8% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.
Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +15.5% over the last 4 quarters against +9.5%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +21.1% vs +16.0%/yr — accelerating.
FY26-Q4. revenue ₹424 Cr and profit ₹84 Cr as reported.
FY27-Q1. revenue ₹449 Cr and profit ₹91 Cr as reported.
Why-sources: our stock research file (31 May 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.
Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.
Happy Forgings Ltd's operating margin is 31.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 9 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 25.0% to 30.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.
Why this happened. 3.5-4% selling price increase guided from April 1, 2026; input cost headwinds: fuel 1%, freight/carbide/packaging up 2-2.5%; steel pass-through on 85% of business; 70-80% OEM confirmation expected within 10-15 days
The latest quarter's operating margin is 31.0%, +2.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 9 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 25.0%–30.0%, and FY26's 30.0% is the top of that band — a record year.
Why the margin moved: operating margin went +2.8 pp year on year while gross margin went +2.8 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.
Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.
FY26-Q4. revenue ₹424 Cr and profit ₹84 Cr as reported.
FY27-Q1. revenue ₹449 Cr and profit ₹91 Cr as reported.
Why-sources: our stock research file (31 May 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
Happy Forgings Ltd earned ₹91.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +37.9% year on year. It is the 8th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹302 Cr. The 8-year compound rate is 22.9%. That is 20.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹66.0 Cr.
Jun 26 profit was ₹91.0 Cr, +37.9% year on year — the 8th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹302 Cr (+13.1%), and the 8-year compound rate is 22.9%.
Why profit moved: revenue contributed +26.8% and the margin +2.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.
Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +21.4% vs revenue +15.6%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.
FY26-Q4. revenue ₹424 Cr and profit ₹84 Cr as reported.
FY27-Q1. revenue ₹449 Cr and profit ₹91 Cr as reported.
Why-sources: our stock research file (31 May 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.
Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.
Over the last 3 fiscal years 114% of Happy Forgings Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹445 Cr of operating cash against ₹302 Cr of profit. After ₹403 Cr of capital spending, ₹42.0 Cr was left as free cash.
FY26: operating cash of ₹445 Cr against reported profit of ₹302 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹42.0 Cr after ₹403 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 114% of profit.
Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.
Why conversion sits at 114%: the cash cycle tightened 32 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.
Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 3.6× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.
Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).
Happy Forgings Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 193 days in FY26, down from 225 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹823 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹1,546 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹4.2 Cr, so roughly ₹817 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.
Why this happened. FY26 domestic CV growth 22% YoY in volume; FY27 CV segment growth guided 35-40%; M&HCV market share target 32% to 42%; Q4 FY26 domestic CV growth 27% YoY
FY26: debtors at 93 days, inventory at 134 days — roughly 4.4 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 193 days, tighter than FY21's 225.
The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 134 days to sell; customers pay about 93 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 34 days — netting out to the 193-day cycle.
In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹1,546 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹4.2 Cr — so the 193-day loop keeps roughly ₹817 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.
On the investment side: capital spending of ₹823 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹231 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹237 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.
The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.
Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.
Happy Forgings Ltd earns a ROCE of 18% in FY26. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +3.2 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 19.5% net margin on 0.59× asset turns.
FY26 ROCE is 18%.
Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 19.5% net margin × 0.59× asset turns × 1.24× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 14.3% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.
The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 15.2% − 12.0% = a +3.2 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.
Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.
Happy Forgings Ltd carries total debt of ₹330 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹2,128 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.16 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.22 in FY23 to 0.16 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.
Mar 26: total debt of ₹330 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹2,128 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.16. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.22 (FY23) to 0.16 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.
Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.
Domestic institutions cut 1.2 points of Happy Forgings Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 15.5% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −0.4 points over the same window, to 1.9%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.
The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: −1.2 points over 8 quarters to 15.5%; Foreign institutions: −0.4 points over 8 quarters to 1.9%; Promoters: −0.1 points over 8 quarters to 78.5%.
🚨 Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (−1.2 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
Happy Forgings Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.
Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.
Happy Forgings Ltd trades at 62.5× P/E, about the priciest it has ever traded. Its long-run median P/E is 40.3×, measured across 2.7 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/E of 62.5× is about the priciest it has ever traded, against a long-run median of 40.3× measured over 2.7 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +12.6% against a +131.6% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.
Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.
Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
Happy Forgings Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 20.3% and holding. The read is built from 11 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.
Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +9.7% | +8.9% | +21.5% | — |
| Profit | +13.1% | +13.1% | +28.6% | — |
| EPS | +12.6% | +11.1% | −49.4% | — |
| Share price | +131.6% | — | — | — |
4-Factor Sector Score
61.3/100 — rank 4 of 20 in Castings, Forgings & Fastners · 100% evidence confidence
Happy Forgings Ltd scores 61.3 out of 100 against the 20 companies it is compared with in Castings, Forgings & Fastners, ranking 4. Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 23.4 + 16.8 + 1.8 + 19.3 = 61.3. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Said versus delivered
What Happy Forgings Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.
FY27 Capex Guidance Reduced Without Reconciliation · 5 August 2026. In May 2026, management guided to total FY27 capex of Rs.450-500 crores. In August 2026, management described annualized investment of Rs.350-400 crores, a materially lower range, without explaining whether the latest figure excludes solar or otherwise changes the scope.
🚨 Heavy Component Capex and Execution Delay · 22 May 2026. During the Nov 2025 call, management projected that the INR 650 crore heavy programs capex would begin generating business by the third quarter of the following year (FY27). However, by the May 2026 call, this timeline was materially pushed back by a full year, with management stating that trials will only begin in early FY28 and business execution is delayed until Q2 or Q3 of FY28 due to external infrastructure readiness.
North American Commercial Vehicle Business Narrative · 22 May 2026. In the Feb 2026 call, management explicitly blamed the U.S. market for a significant portion of their commercial vehicle (CV) export weakness, indicating an established revenue presence. During the May 2026 call, management sharply contradicted this by downplaying their North American exposure and framing it instead as an untapped frontier where they are only just beginning to submit RFQs.
🚨 Material Delay in Solar Power Plant · 10 February 2026. Management previously guided for the solar power project to commence by Q1 FY27 (April-June 2026) to generate cost savings. In the latest call, this timeline has slipped significantly, with benefits now anticipated to start partially only in FY28 (April 2027 onwards). Earlier call (Aug 2025): “We expect the project to commence by first quarter of next financial year... to be on a safe side, we expect it by first quarter of next financial year.” Later call (Feb 2026): “We anticipate the benefit of this investment to start coming in partially in FY28 and fully thereafter.”
Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.
| Company | Score | Price stage | Growth & earnings/35 | Capital efficiency/25 | Valuation/20 | Relative strength/20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kennametal India LtdKENNAMET | 84.5/100Sector-leading setup100% evidence | LEADER | 32.3/35 Revenue 29.1% · PAT 91.2% · OPM change 12 pp 100% evidence | 19.1/25 ROCE 33.2% · OPM 27% 100% evidence | 13.1/20 P/E 52.5× · PEG 1.34 100% evidence | 20.0/20 RS sector 44.1% · RS bench 82.3% · 1Y 115.2%10 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 32.3 + 19.1 + 13.1 + 20 = 84.5 · Decision use: Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence. | ||||||
| 2Uniparts India LtdUNIPARTS | 78.9/100Favorable setup100% evidence | LEADER | 31.6/35 Revenue 27.5% · PAT 85.6% · OPM change 5 pp 100% evidence | 17.4/25 ROCE 21.6% · OPM 24% 100% evidence | 12.7/20 P/E 22.2× · PEG 0.38 100% evidence | 17.2/20 RS sector 28.6% · RS bench 62.8% · 1Y 118.1%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 31.6 + 17.4 + 12.7 + 17.2 = 78.9 · Decision use: Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence. | ||||||
| 3Amic Forging Ltd544037 | 62.1/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | LEADER | 17.8/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 5 pp 26% evidence | 19.9/25 ROCE 23.5% · OPM 33% 76% evidence | 7.1/20 P/E 96.3× · PEG — 50% evidence | 17.3/20 RS sector 18.1% · RS bench 51.3% · 1Y 60.7%11 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 17.8 + 19.9 + 7.1 + 17.3 = 62.1 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 4Happy Forgings Ltdthis pageHAPPYFORGE | 61.3/100Mixed-positive evidence100% evidence | LEADER | 23.4/35 Revenue 15.5% · PAT 21.1% · OPM change 2 pp 100% evidence | 16.8/25 ROCE 18% · OPM 31% 100% evidence | 1.8/20 P/E 62.5× · PEG 3.72 100% evidence | 19.3/20 RS sector 30.5% · RS bench 64.7% · 1Y 144.8%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 23.4 + 16.8 + 1.8 + 19.3 = 61.3 · Decision use: Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence. | ||||||
| 5Captain Technocast Ltd540652 | 59.4/100Thin evidence · provisional51% evidence | TURNING | 20.8/35 Revenue 78.2% · PAT 100% · OPM change -2 pp 48% evidence | 18.1/25 ROCE 29.7% · OPM 12% 76% evidence | 9.9/20 P/E 48.6× · PEG — 50% evidence | 10.6/20 RS sector — · RS bench 17.7% · 1Y —6 of 6 weeks ahead 25% evidence |
| Exact sum: 20.8 + 18.1 + 9.9 + 10.6 = 59.4 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 6Gala Precision Engineering LtdGALAPREC | 58.9/100Mixed-positive evidence80% evidence | LEADER | 27.3/35 Revenue 31.8% · PAT 37.2% · OPM change 1 pp 95% evidence | 14.2/25 ROCE 15.6% · OPM 16.3% 95% evidence | 10.2/20 P/E 34.7× · PEG — 15% evidence | 7.2/20 RS sector -4.7% · RS bench 21.8% · 1Y 26.3%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 27.3 + 14.2 + 10.2 + 7.2 = 58.9 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 7M M Forgings LtdMMFL | 58.1/100Mixed-positive evidence100% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 18.8/35 Revenue 9.6% · PAT 53.1% · OPM change 0 pp 100% evidence | 9.7/25 ROCE 9% · OPM 18% 100% evidence | 13.1/20 P/E 27.1× · PEG 0.66 100% evidence | 16.5/20 RS sector 14.7% · RS bench 45.7% · 1Y 99.8%11 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 18.8 + 9.7 + 13.1 + 16.5 = 58.1 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 8Sona BLW Precision Forgings LtdSONACOMS | 57.4/100Mixed-positive evidence100% evidence | LEADER | 22.3/35 Revenue 39.6% · PAT 18.1% · OPM change -1 pp 100% evidence | 12.3/25 ROCE 14.2% · OPM 23% 100% evidence | 7.0/20 P/E 67.6× · PEG 3.04 100% evidence | 15.8/20 RS sector 10.7% · RS bench 40.7% · 1Y 78.6%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 22.3 + 12.3 + 7 + 15.8 = 57.4 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 9Balu Forge Industries LtdBALUFORGE | 52.2/100Mixed-positive evidence94% evidence | TURNING | 14.5/35 Revenue 19.8% · PAT 18.1% · OPM change -3 pp 100% evidence | 17.6/25 ROCE 22.7% · OPM 28% 100% evidence | 13.8/20 P/E 24.2× · PEG 1.61 100% evidence | 6.3/20 RS sector -27.9% · RS bench 3.5% · 1Y -19.9%4 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 14.5 + 17.6 + 13.8 + 6.3 = 52.2 · Decision use: Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity. | ||||||
| 10Steelcast LtdSTEELCAS | 52.0/100Mixed-positive evidence100% evidence | LEADER | 15.2/35 Revenue 9.2% · PAT 15.2% · OPM change 0 pp 100% evidence | 18.6/25 ROCE 32.3% · OPM 26% 100% evidence | 8.8/20 P/E 36.3× · PEG 1.7 100% evidence | 9.4/20 RS sector -0.1% · RS bench 27.2% · 1Y 50.6%10 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 15.2 + 18.6 + 8.8 + 9.4 = 52 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 11Uni Abex Alloy Products Ltd504605 | 51.9/100Mixed-positive evidence82% evidence | LEADER | 16.3/35 Revenue 17.2% · PAT 100% · OPM change -7 pp 95% evidence | 15.2/25 ROCE 19.2% · OPM 10.5% 76% evidence | 10.7/20 P/E 19.7× · PEG — 50% evidence | 9.7/20 RS sector 0.1% · RS bench 27.3% · 1Y 45.9%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 16.3 + 15.2 + 10.7 + 9.7 = 51.9 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 12Tirupati Forge LtdTIRUPATIFL | 51.5/100Mixed-positive evidence80% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 15.9/35 Revenue 42.3% · PAT -8.4% · OPM change 0.1 pp 95% evidence | 8.9/25 ROCE 7.5% · OPM 11.5% 95% evidence | 8.7/20 P/E 147× · PEG — 15% evidence | 18.0/20 RS sector 21.4% · RS bench 52.9% · 1Y 72.5%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 15.9 + 8.9 + 8.7 + 18 = 51.5 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 52.9%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation. | ||||||
| 13CIE Automotive India LtdCIEINDIA | 44.7/100Mixed-negative evidence100% evidence | ASLEEP | 17.5/35 Revenue 12.5% · PAT 14.3% · OPM change 1 pp 100% evidence | 14.4/25 ROCE 14.7% · OPM 15% 100% evidence | 11.8/20 P/E 16.1× · PEG 2.4 100% evidence | 1.0/20 RS sector -32.1% · RS bench -11.7% · 1Y -3.6%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 17.5 + 14.4 + 11.8 + 1 = 44.7 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 14Ramkrishna Forgings LtdRKFORGE | 42.4/100Mixed-negative evidence75% evidence | LEADER | 14.1/35 Revenue 8.6% · PAT -71.3% · OPM change 4 pp 95% evidence | 7.5/25 ROCE 5.6% · OPM 18% 76% evidence | 8.8/20 P/E 113× · PEG — 15% evidence | 12.0/20 RS sector -1.6% · RS bench 26.6% · 1Y 24.7%8 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 14.1 + 7.5 + 8.8 + 12 = 42.4 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 15Bharat Forge LtdBHARATFORG | 40.7/100Mixed-negative evidence75% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 15.1/35 Revenue 17.5% · PAT -30.1% · OPM change -2 pp 95% evidence | 11.0/25 ROCE 12.6% · OPM 15% 76% evidence | 9.1/20 P/E 92.1× · PEG — 15% evidence | 5.5/20 RS sector -10.2% · RS bench 14.5% · 1Y 71.1%7 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 15.1 + 11 + 9.1 + 5.5 = 40.7 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 16Nelcast LtdNELCAST | 38.6/100Mixed-negative evidence87% evidence | BASING | 13.8/35 Revenue 4.2% · PAT -1.8% · OPM change -3.9 pp 95% evidence | 12.1/25 ROCE 11.4% · OPM 4.6% 95% evidence | 11.7/20 P/E 23× · PEG — 50% evidence | 1.0/20 RS sector -30.3% · RS bench -10% · 1Y -25.6%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 13.8 + 12.1 + 11.7 + 1 = 38.6 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 17Alicon Castalloy LtdALICON | 37.1/100Mixed-negative evidence81% evidence | TURNING | 11.3/35 Revenue 13.7% · PAT 0% · OPM change -3 pp 95% evidence | 10.2/25 ROCE 10.6% · OPM 9% 95% evidence | 9.4/20 P/E 32.4× · PEG — 50% evidence | 6.2/20 RS sector -20.7% · RS bench -0.2% · 1Y -12.7%3 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 11.3 + 10.2 + 9.4 + 6.2 = 37.1 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 18Sundaram Clayton LtdSUNCLAY | 26.0/100Adverse evidence74% evidence | BASING | 10.4/35 Revenue -3.9% · PAT 100% · OPM change -1.2 pp 74% evidence | 0.5/25 ROCE -3.3% · OPM 2% 100% evidence | 11.5/20 P/E 11.1× · PEG — 15% evidence | 3.6/20 RS sector -25.6% · RS bench -3% · 1Y -22.3%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 10.4 + 0.5 + 11.5 + 3.6 = 26 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 19Sterling Tools LtdSTERTOOLS | 25.9/100Adverse evidence87% evidence | TURNING | 6.9/35 Revenue -9.3% · PAT -46.4% · OPM change -0.9 pp 95% evidence | 9.1/25 ROCE 7.2% · OPM 10.6% 95% evidence | 6.9/20 P/E 40.5× · PEG — 50% evidence | 3.0/20 RS sector -33.7% · RS bench -12.9% · 1Y -33.4%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 6.9 + 9.1 + 6.9 + 3 = 25.9 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 20Synergy Green Industries LtdSGIL | 23.7/100Adverse evidence80% evidence | TURNING | 1.9/35 Revenue -2.5% · PAT -80% · OPM change -8 pp 95% evidence | 6.9/25 ROCE 9.2% · OPM 6% 95% evidence | 8.5/20 P/E 185× · PEG — 15% evidence | 6.4/20 RS sector -15% · RS bench 10.1% · 1Y 7.3%9 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 1.9 + 6.9 + 8.5 + 6.4 = 23.7 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
Missing observations are not scored as bad. Their missing weight lowers confidence and pulls the final score toward neutral. PEG is not shown when the ratio cannot mean anything: the company must be making a profit, its price-to-earnings must be positive, and its three-year earnings growth must fall between 5% and 60%. Dividing a price multiple by a loss, or by growth measured off a tiny base, produces a number that looks precise and tells you nothing. Under relative strength, one mark per week shows the last 12 weeks: a mark is filled where the company led NIFTY 500 by 5% or more over the 13 weeks ending that week, which is the same test used everywhere on this site. Price stage places the company on the same six-step curve the sector itself is placed on — basing, turning, breaking out, leader, fading, asleep — read from how many weeks running it has led NIFTY 500 and whether that lead is widening or shrinking. It describes where the PRICE stands, not the earnings trajectory and not a recommendation, and it is left blank for a company whose weekly history is too short or too stale to read.
Frequently asked questions
What is Happy Forgings Ltd's share price today?
Happy Forgings Ltd trades at ₹2,169, +131.6% over the past year. The company is valued at ₹20,471 Cr. The stock sits at 89% of its 52-week range of ₹1,014–₹2,307, +43.0% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a confirmed uptrend, 44 weeks in. — as of 11 September 2026.
What were Happy Forgings Ltd's latest quarterly results?
Happy Forgings Ltd reported revenue of ₹449 Cr and net profit of ₹91.0 Cr for the Jun 26 quarter. Revenue rose 26.8% and profit rose 37.9% year on year. Earnings per share were ₹9.69. The operating margin was 31.0%, 2.0 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 11 September 2026.
What is Happy Forgings Ltd's revenue?
Happy Forgings Ltd reported revenue of ₹449 Cr in the Jun 26 quarter, +26.8% year on year. For the full FY26 fiscal year, revenue was ₹1,546 Cr (+9.7%). Over the last 8 years revenue compounded at 13.8% a year. — as of 11 September 2026.
What is Happy Forgings Ltd's profit?
Happy Forgings Ltd earned ₹91.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +37.9% year on year — the 8th straight quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹302 Cr. The operating margin ran 31.0% in the latest quarter. — as of 11 September 2026.
What is Happy Forgings Ltd's market cap?
Happy Forgings Ltd's market capitalisation is ₹20,471 Cr at a share price of ₹2,169. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 11 September 2026.
What is Happy Forgings Ltd's P/E ratio?
Happy Forgings Ltd trades at a P/E of 62.5×, at the 98th percentile of its own 3-year range, against a long-run median of 40.3×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 11 September 2026.
Does Happy Forgings Ltd pay a dividend?
Yes — Happy Forgings Ltd's dividend payout was 13% of profit in FY26, and it recorded a payout in 4 of its last 9 reported fiscal years. This page holds the payout ratio, not a per-share amount. — as of 11 September 2026.
Is Happy Forgings Ltd overvalued?
On its own history, Happy Forgings Ltd looks expensive: its P/E of 62.5× sits at the 98th percentile of its 3-year range (long-run median 40.3×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. One caveat: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. — as of 11 September 2026.
Is Happy Forgings Ltd growing?
Yes — Happy Forgings Ltd is growing: latest-quarter revenue +26.8% year on year, profit +37.9%, and the margin +2.0 pp at 31.0%. The 8-year compound rates are 13.8% (revenue) and 22.9% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 11 September 2026.
How is Happy Forgings Ltd performing?
Happy Forgings Ltd is in a confirmed uptrend, 44 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 26.8% and profit rose 37.9% year on year. Against the NIFTY 500 it has been ahead on a trailing-13-week view for 54 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 11 September 2026.
What stage is Happy Forgings Ltd in?
Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 20.3% and holding. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +15.5% latest, profit growth +21.1% latest, eps growth +21.4% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 11 September 2026.
Is Happy Forgings Ltd in an uptrend?
Yes — the price is in a confirmed uptrend (week 44 of stage 2), trading +43.0% versus its 200-day average and at 89% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 11 September 2026.
Is Happy Forgings Ltd beating the market?
On recent form, yes — Happy Forgings Ltd has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 54 straight weeks, the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 2.7 years the stock moved +111% against the NIFTY 500's +18% — ahead of the index over the full window. — as of 11 September 2026.
Will Happy Forgings Ltd's share price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for Happy Forgings Ltd. What it measures instead: the share price is ₹2,169, the price is in a confirmed uptrend 44 weeks in. Its P/E of 62.5× sits at the 98th percentile of its own 3-year range. — as of 11 September 2026.
Who owns Happy Forgings Ltd?
Promoters hold 78.5% of Happy Forgings Ltd, foreign institutions 1.9%, domestic institutions 15.5% and the public 4.1% (latest quarter). The biggest move on the register over the last two years: Domestic institutions cut 1.2 points over 8 quarters. — as of 11 September 2026.
Does Happy Forgings Ltd have too much debt?
No — Happy Forgings Ltd's debt-to-equity is 0.16, and operating profit covers the interest bill 47×. FY26 borrowings were ₹330 Cr against equity of ₹2,128 Cr. The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed — as of 11 September 2026.
What is Happy Forgings Ltd's capex?
Happy Forgings Ltd spent ₹823 Cr on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY26 alone that was ₹403 Cr, with ₹237 Cr in capital work-in-progress — capacity paid for but not yet earning. — as of 11 September 2026.
What is Happy Forgings Ltd's cash flow?
Happy Forgings Ltd generated ₹445 Cr of operating cash flow in FY26 and ₹42.0 Cr of free cash flow after ₹403 Cr of capital spending. Reported profit that year was ₹302 Cr, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. Cash-flow resolution for India is annual. — as of 11 September 2026.
Is Happy Forgings Ltd's profit real cash?
Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 114% of Happy Forgings Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY26, operating cash was ₹445 Cr against reported profit of ₹302 Cr. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 11 September 2026.
Where is Happy Forgings Ltd in its business cycle?
Happy Forgings Ltd's FY26 operating margin was 30.0%, against a 9-year band of 25.0%–30.0%: the top of the band — a record year. Record profitability is late-cycle territory: every ratio flatters at the top, and the story leans on margins holding. The latest quarter ran 31.0%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 11 September 2026.
What could break the Happy Forgings Ltd story?
The sharpest disagreement: the price moved +131.6% in a year while annual EPS moved +12.6% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 11 September 2026.
Is Happy Forgings Ltd a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: Happy Forgings Ltd's price has outrun its earnings. +131.6% in a year against EPS +12.6% — the market is paying now for delivery later. The sharpest open question: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 11 September 2026.
Not SEBI Registered !! Not Investment advice !!