Bharat Forge Ltd (BHARATFORG) — share price & stock analysis

Market cap

₹1,00,819 Cr

P/E

85.5×

ROE

12.5%

vs own 10-yr valuation

94th pctile

Book value / share

₹200

EPS (TTM)

₹24.7

10-yr median P/E

48.9×

Revenue (FY26)

₹16,812 Cr

Profit after tax (FY26)

₹1,089 Cr

Weinstein stage

Stage 2 (34 weeks)

Data as of

1 July 2026

1 of the 6 things we track are currently moving the right way — most of the dashboard is red.

Where the levels actually stand: ROCE 13% — decent; debt moderate (0.76× equity); margins mid-band. Momentum says which way things are moving; these say where they are.

Read this number for what it is: it measures the DIRECTION of change, not the quality of the business. A mediocre business getting better scores high here; a great one having a soft quarter scores low. Profit, sales and margins count double.

The market has pre-paid for growth that hasn’t arrived yet

Since May 2016, the stock is up 487% while earnings per share grew 57%. The difference is re-rating — investors paying more for the same rupee of profit.pricettm_eps

That works until it doesn’t: from here, earnings have to do the lifting, because the multiple has already done its part.

Today’s P/E of 85.5× means the market is paying up — this is the expensive end of its own 10-year history (94th percentile).pe_ratio

Price is the weekly close (₹). EPS is trailing-twelve-month profit per share, anchored on Screener's own snapshots; between snapshots it is filled from price ÷ P/E (an exact identity), and any fill straying more than 18% from the neighbouring snapshots is dropped rather than shown. The lower panel is the P/E — what the market pays per rupee of profit; the dotted line is its long-run median (48.9×).

An uptrend that has held for 34 weeks

Every stock cycles through the same four seasons — a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Right now this one is in Stage 2: advancing, 34 weeks in, confirmed.stage

The price sits above its rising 200-day average (₹1,677 today) — trends like this persist more often than they reverse, which is why the system rides them instead of guessing the top.dma_200

Beating NIFTY 500 for 40 weeks — relative strength is the market’s live opinion, and right now it is on this stock’s side.rs_mansfield

What would end it: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the house exit rule — mechanical, no debates.dma_200

A business that went through the fire — losses in FY21, records now

Over 12 years, sales went from ₹6,704 Cr to ₹16,812 Cr (about 8% a year), and profit from ₹482 Cr to ₹1,089 Cr.revenuenet_profit

The books show real losses in FY21 (worst: ₹−127 Cr). Everything about today’s cheap-looking numbers must be read against that history — the recovery is what you are buying.net_profit

Sales grew 18% last quarter

Mar 26 sales were ₹4,528 Cr, up 18% on the same quarter last year.revenue

Margins have been rebuilt — 13.1% in FY21 to 17.4% now

Of every ₹100 of sales, the company keeps ₹17.2 as operating profit (a year ago it kept ₹17.6).opm_pct

Zoom out and this is the page's quiet hero: annual operating margin bottomed at 13.1% in FY21 and has been rebuilt to 17.4% — that recovery, not sales alone, is what powers the profit growth elsewhere on this page.operating_profit

Profit declined 18% — mostly from selling more

Mar 26 profit after tax was ₹233 Cr, down 18% year on year.net_profit

A caution: a meaningful slice of this jump came from income outside the core business — that is lower-quality profit and may not repeat.other_income

The profits are real — they turn into cash

Over the last 5 profitable years, the business reported ₹4,497 Cr of profit and collected ₹6,747 Cr of operating cash — about 150% conversion.operating_cash_flownet_profit

When cash tracks profit this closely, the earnings need no asterisk.

The cash cycle is stable

One rupee now takes about 136 days to go out the door as materials and come back as collected cash.cash_conversion_cycle

The biggest mover: customers taking longer to pay (70 → 85 days).debtor_days

Building hard — new capacity is under construction

The productive asset base has gone from ₹2,534 Cr (FY14) to ₹8,262 Cr, with another ₹1,251 Cr of capacity under construction right now.fixed_assetscwip

Work-in-progress is 15% of the existing asset base — that is a serious bet on future demand. Capacity like this shows up in sales with a lag; it is tomorrow’s growth being paid for today.cwip

The build is self-funded: the last 3 years' investing outflow (₹3,662 Cr) fits inside the operating cash the business generated (₹4,947 Cr).investing_cash_flowoperating_cash_flow

Debt is present but comfortable

For every ₹100 shareholders have put in (and left in), the company has borrowed ₹76 — total borrowings have grown from ₹2,561 Cr to ₹7,309 Cr over the window.borrowings

Every ₹100 kept in the business earns ₹13 — decent, not special

Return on capital employed is 13.0% (a year ago: 12.0%). This is the single best test of business quality: what the company earns on the money it keeps.roce_pct

Promoter holding dropped in one step — an event, not a slow exit

Promoters hold 44.1% (down 1.2 points over 8 quarters). Foreign funds own 14.2%, domestic funds 32.6%.promoters_pctfiis_pctdiis_pct

The promoter move came in a single step (Dec 24) — promoters rarely buy on-market, so a jump like this is almost always an allotment, infusion or restructuring: a capital event, not a slow accumulation of conviction. Worth knowing which, before reading it as a signal.promoters_pct

Domestic funds tell the real story: they sold from 28.6% down to 26.3% (Sep 24), and have been buying back since — now 32.6%. A completed round trip like that usually means the doubts got answered.diis_pct

The numbers earn a deeper study — and watch the one thing that matters

The numbers lean positive, and the price already assumes the good news continues.

Best thing in the data: free cash flow rising (₹−168 Cr → ₹454 Cr).operating_cash_flow

Biggest worry: profit falling (₹283 Cr → ₹233 Cr).net_profit

One dissent worth hearing: our valuation lens reads negative — “its fair-value math says the price sits about 58% above what the numbers justify”. When a lens disagrees with the committee, it is usually pointing at the thing that breaks first.

Machine-written research from Screener data — every number traces to its source column. Sector Alpha is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell. Not investment advice.

Straight answers from the data