Sector Alpha Week of 2026-08-14
Sector Alpha — machine-written from the numbers · Data as of 2026-08-14

Bharat Forge Ltd

BHARATFORG
Castings, Forgings & Fastners

Bharat Forge Ltd's price has outrun its earnings. +74.9% in a year against EPS +14.7% — the market is paying now for delivery later.

The sharpest disagreement: the price moved +74.9% in a year while annual EPS moved +14.7% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings.

The price is in a confirmed uptrend (40 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 96th percentile of its own 11-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read deteriorating — profit −131.7% year on year, and 170% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved.

Stage
Mixed
partial read
Price
₹2,065
+74.9% 1Y
P/E
97.8×
96th pctile
of its own 11-year range
Revenue (Jun 26)
₹4,640 Cr
+18.7% YoY
Profit (Jun 26)
₹−90.0 Cr
−131.7% YoY
Operating margin
15.0%
−2.0 pp YoY
ROCE
13%
FY26
Cash conversion
170%
of profit, last 3 FY
Withheld from this page: Part of this page is deliberately not drawn: its two data sources disagree by up to 16% on reported income across 15 comparable periods, so nothing from the second source is placed here — the PEG ratio and its quarterly curve, the quarterly return curves, the annual return-on-invested-capital overlay, the total-debt and debt-to-equity series and the F-score and the return-on-invested-capital reading are absent for that reason. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data. The quarterly history also begins where the primary source begins: 5 earlier quarters the second source carries are not spliced in front of it. Extending a reported profit series is stricter than showing a ratio chart — it needs a source that has been checked.
01 · Price story

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Bharat Forge Ltd trades at ₹2,065, in a confirmed uptrend and 40 weeks into that stage. That is +14.3% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 82% of a 52-week range of ₹1,181 to ₹2,265. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 50 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 40 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹2,065 it trades +14.3% versus its 200-day average and sits at 82% of its 52-week range (₹1,181–₹2,265).

Aug 26: ₹2,065 Weekly closing price (₹) with 50- and 200-day averages; shaded bands mark the price stage (grey base, green advance, amber top, red decline). 3-year window.
+14.3% versus the 200-day line, week 40 of stage 2
Price50-day avg200-day avg
S2S4S4S2₹2,381₹1,962₹1,542₹1,123₹704₹2,065₹1,806Aug 23May 24Feb 25Dec 25Aug 26
S2S4S4S2₹2,381₹1,962₹1,542₹1,123₹704₹2,065₹1,806Aug 23Feb 25Aug 26
Beating or trailing, week by week since 2016 Each cell is one week from 2016 to now (552 weeks): the stock's trailing 13-week return minus the NIFTY 500's, green ahead / red behind (±25% ramp). Grey cells are the 13-week warm-up or weeks where the NIFTY 500 reading is not held.
trailing 13-week return vs the NIFTY 500
Feb 16Aug 26

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +456% while the NIFTY 500 moved +284% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 50 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

02 · Valuation

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Bharat Forge Ltd trades at 97.8× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (96th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 48.6×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 97.8× is at the pricey end of its own range (96th percentile), against a long-run median of 48.6× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

P/E 97.8× vs a 48.6× long-run median P/E, weekly (left axis); earnings per share, trailing twelve months, weekly (right axis). 10.5-year window; loss-period spikes above 146× shown pinned at the top. The eps (ttm) bars are red where the reading is lower than the quarter before.
at the pricey end of its own range (96th percentile)
P/EMedianEPS (TTM) (quarterly)
156.5×₹26.5118.1×₹19.979.8×₹13.341.5×₹6.63.1×₹0.0×97.80×₹21Feb 16Aug 18Sep 21Apr 24Aug 26
156.5×₹26.5118.1×₹19.979.8×₹13.341.5×₹6.63.1×₹0.0×97.80×₹21Feb 16Sep 21Aug 26
P/E
97.8×
96th percentile of 11y

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +14.7% against a +74.9% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +20.3%/yr price move, ~+16.4%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+3.9 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +17.5%/yr price move, ~+3.7%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+13.8 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

The PEG ratio and its quarterly curve, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 16% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

03 · Stage: Mixed

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Bharat Forge Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — revenue growth is rising at +17.5% while profit growth is falling at −30.1% — the curves disagree, so the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 9 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Growth, year by year: revenue +11.2% in FY26, profit +19.3% Year-over-year growth per fiscal year, %: revenue (left axis); net profit and EPS (right axis — profit growth swings far wider). Zero line drawn.
Revenue YoYProfit YoYEPS YoY
72%97%47%35%22%−28%−3.2%−91%−28%−154%%%11.2%19.3%FY16FY21FY26
72%97%47%35%22%−28%−3.2%−91%−28%−154%%%11.2%19.3%FY16FY21FY26
Three growth curves, twelve quarters Year-on-year growth of trailing-twelve-month revenue (left axis), profit and EPS (right axis — they swing far wider), % at each quarter-end. A missing point means that reading is not held for the quarter.
the trajectory the stage is read from · revenue accelerating, profit rolling over
RevenueProfitEPS
19%66%13%40%5.7%14%−1.2%−12%−8.1%−38%%%17.5%−30.1%−31.3%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
19%66%13%40%5.7%14%−1.2%−12%−8.1%−38%%%17.5%−30.1%−31.3%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
ROCE Annual readings — the quarterly balance-sheet pieces this curve needs are not held for this stock, so the returns read moves once a year and carries less weight in the call.
the return curve, annual readings
ROCE
13%12%11%9.1%7.6%%13%FY23FY24FY26
13%12%11%9.1%7.6%%13%FY23FY24FY26
Revenue growth
Rising
latest +17.5% · span −6.2% to +17.5%
Profit growth
Falling
latest −30.1% · span −30.1% to +54.7%
EPS growth
Falling
latest −31.3% · span −31.3% to +58.5%
ROCE
Rising
latest 13.0% · span 8.0%–13.0%

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

Compound annual growth rate (%) Compound annual growth rate over each window, %. Revenue, profit and EPS from fiscal-year figures; share price is the price CAGR over the same spans. A dash = that window is not held, or the base was a loss.
1yr3yr5yr10yr
Revenue+11.2%+9.2%+21.6%+9.5%
Profit+19.3%+28.9%+4.9%
EPS+14.7%+25.8%+4.5%
Share price+74.9%+28.6%+20.3%+17.5%
Revenue YoY (Jun 26)
+18.7%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Profit YoY (Jun 26)
−131.7%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Revenue 10y
9.5%
long-run compound pace
04 · 4-Factor Sector Score

4-Factor Sector Score

42.6/100 — rank 15 of 20 in Castings, Forgings & Fastners · 75% evidence confidence

Bharat Forge Ltd scores 42.6 out of 100 against the 20 companies it is compared with in Castings, Forgings & Fastners, ranking 15. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 15.1 + 11 + 9 + 7.5 = 42.6. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

05 · Revenue

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Bharat Forge Ltd reported ₹4,640 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +18.7% year on year. That is the 4th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 9.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹16,812 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹17,543 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹16,812 Cr (+11.2% on the year), capping 10 years at 9.5% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹4,640 Cr, +18.7% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

FY26 revenue ₹16,812 Cr (+11.2% YoY) Revenue bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 11-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
9.5% a year over 10 years
RevenueYoY growth
18.2k72%13.6k47%9.1k22%4.5k−3.2%0−28%₹ Cr%₹16,81211.2%FY16FY21FY26
18.2k72%13.6k47%9.1k22%4.5k−3.2%0−28%₹ Cr%₹16,81211.2%FY16FY21FY26
Jun 26: ₹4,640 Cr (+18.7% YoY) Quarterly revenue bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
4th straight quarter of growth
Revenue (quarterly)YoY growth
5.0k28%3.8k18%2.5k7.4%1.3k−2.8%0−13%₹ Cr%₹4,64018.7%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
5.0k28%3.8k18%2.5k7.4%1.3k−2.8%0−13%₹ Cr%₹4,64018.7%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +17.6% growth against the decade's 9.5% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +17.5% over the last 4 quarters against +5.0%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit −30.1% vs −9.4%/yr — rolling over.

06 · Operating margin

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Bharat Forge Ltd's operating margin is 15.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, −2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 13.0% to 21.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 15.0%, −2.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 13.0%–21.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −2.1 pp year on year while gross margin went −1.2 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

FY26: 17.0% Operating margin by fiscal year, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). 13-year window.
within a 13.0–21.0% band over 13 years
operating marginYoY change (pp)
22%7.0%19%3.3%17%−0.5%15%−4.3%12%−8.0%%%17%−1%FY14FY20FY26
22%7.0%19%3.3%17%−0.5%15%−4.3%12%−8.0%%%17%−1%FY14FY20FY26
Jun 26: 15.0% operating margin (−2.0 pp YoY) Quarterly operating margin, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). Last 12 quarters. Operating profit as a share of revenue, per quarter.
Operating marginYoY change (pp)
18.2%5.6%17.4%3.5%16.5%1.5%15.6%−0.5%14.8%−2.6%%%15%−2%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
18.2%5.6%17.4%3.5%16.5%1.5%15.6%−0.5%14.8%−2.6%%%15%−2%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
07 · Net profit

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Bharat Forge Ltd posted a net loss of ₹90.0 Cr in the Jun 26 quarter. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹1,089 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 4.9%. That loss is 1.9% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹284 Cr. 1 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Jun 26 profit was ₹−90.0 Cr, −131.7% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹1,089 Cr (+19.3%), and the 10-year compound rate is 4.9%.

FY26 profit ₹1,089 Cr (+19.3% YoY) Net profit bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 11-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
4.9% a year over 10 years
Net profitYoY growth
1.2k96%83434%481−29%128−91%−224−154%₹ Cr%₹1,08919.3%FY16FY21FY26
1.2k96%83434%481−29%128−91%−224−154%₹ Cr%₹1,08919.3%FY16FY21FY26
Jun 26: ₹−90.0 Cr (−131.7% YoY) Quarterly net profit bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
Net profit (quarterly)YoY growth
330250%217147%10545%−8−58%−121−160%₹ Cr%₹−90−131.7%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
330250%217147%10545%−8−58%−121−160%₹ Cr%₹−90−131.7%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +18.7% and the margin −2.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −24.5% vs revenue +17.6%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

08 · Cash flow — the router

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 170% of Bharat Forge Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹1,487 Cr of operating cash against ₹1,089 Cr of profit. After ₹2,125 Cr of capital spending, ₹−638 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹1,487 Cr against reported profit of ₹1,089 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−638 Cr after ₹2,125 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 170% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

FY26: CFO ₹1,487 Cr vs profit ₹1,089 Cr Operating cash flow and net profit by fiscal year, ₹ Cr; the line is free cash flow (CFO minus capital spending). 11-year window, annual resolution.
170% of 3-year profit arrived as cash
Operating cashNet profitFree cash
2.0k1.3k579−127−833₹ Cr₹1,487₹1,089₹−638FY16FY21FY26
2.0k1.3k579−127−833₹ Cr₹1,487₹1,089₹−638FY16FY21FY26
FY26: CFO = 137% of profit (three-year rate 170%) Operating cash as a share of net profit, per fiscal year, % (line). Dashed line = 100% — every unit of profit arriving as cash; outlier years shown pinned.
Conversion100%
320%247%174%100%27%%137%FY16FY21FY26
320%247%174%100%27%%137%FY16FY21FY26

Why conversion sits at 170%: the cash cycle tightened 27 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 2.0× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

09 · Where the cash goes

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Bharat Forge Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 136 days in FY26, down from 163 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹5,344 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹16,812 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹46.1 Cr, so roughly ₹6,264 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 85 days, inventory at 195 days — roughly 6.4 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 136 days, tighter than FY21's 163.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 195 days to sell; customers pay about 85 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 144 days — netting out to the 136-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹16,812 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹46.1 Cr — so the 136-day loop keeps roughly ₹6,264 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

FY26: a 136-day cash cycle Debtor days, inventory days, payable days and the cash conversion cycle by fiscal year. 13-year window.
−27 days vs FY21
Cash cycleInventory daysDebtor daysPayable days
2672031397410days136d195d85d144dFY14FY17FY20FY23FY26
2672031397410days136d195d85d144dFY14FY20FY26

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹5,344 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹2,693 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹1,298 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

FY26: capex ₹2,125 Cr, work-in-progress ₹1,298 Cr Capital spending per fiscal year, ₹ Cr (bars); capital work-in-progress, ₹ Cr (line). Quarterly capital-spending history is not held for India — annual is the honest resolution.
a build-out
CapexWork-in-progress
2.3k1.7k1.1k5740₹ Cr₹2,125₹1,298FY16FY18FY21FY23FY26
2.3k1.7k1.1k5740₹ Cr₹2,125₹1,298FY16FY21FY26

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

10 · Return on capital

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Bharat Forge Ltd earns a ROCE of 13% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 3% in FY21. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 6.5% net margin on 0.76× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 13%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 3% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 6.5% net margin × 0.76× asset turns × 2.32× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 11.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

FY26: ROCE 13% Return on capital employed by fiscal year, % (line). 13-year window, dips included. Dashed line = the 12.0% cost of capital used on this page.
the climb back from FY21's 3%
ROCEWACC
22%17%12%6.8%1.6%%13%FY14FY17FY20FY23FY26
22%17%12%6.8%1.6%%13%FY14FY20FY26

The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 16% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

11 · Debt

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Bharat Forge Ltd carries ₹7,309 Cr of borrowings against ₹9,580 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.76. Operating profit covers the interest bill 9×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹5,271 Cr to ₹7,309 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹5,344 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹7,309 Cr against equity of ₹9,580 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.76. Operating profit covers the interest bill 9×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹5,271 Cr to ₹7,309 Cr while capital spending ran ₹5,344 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

FY26: borrowings ₹7,309 Cr at 0.76× equity Borrowings by fiscal year, ₹ Cr (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). 13-year window. Quarterly balance-sheet history is not held for India — annual is the honest resolution.
the debt trajectory
BorrowingsDebt-to-equity
8.6k1.1×6.4k1.0×4.3k0.9×2.1k0.8×00.7×₹ Cr×₹7,3090.76×FY14FY17FY20FY23FY26
8.6k1.1×6.4k1.0×4.3k0.9×2.1k0.8×00.7×₹ Cr×₹7,3090.76×FY14FY20FY26

The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 16% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

12 · Ownership

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 4.2 points of Bharat Forge Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 32.2% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −2.0 points over the same window, to 15.0%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +4.2 points over 8 quarters to 32.2%; Foreign institutions: −2.0 points over 8 quarters to 15.0%; Promoters: −1.2 points over 8 quarters to 44.1%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −2.0 points against domestic institutions +4.2 points over 8 quarters, with promoters −1.2 points — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Fiscal-year ends: promoters −1.2 pts from Mar 24 to Mar 26 Shareholding at each fiscal-year end (March quarter), % of the company. 3 year-ends held.
PromotersForeign inst.Domestic inst.Public
48%38%27%17%6.1%%44.1%14.2%32.6%9%Mar 24Mar 25Mar 26
48%38%27%17%6.1%%44.1%14.2%32.6%9%Mar 24Mar 25Mar 26
Domestic institutions added 4.2 points over 8 quarters Shareholding by holder class, % of the company, quarterly, last 13 quarters.
PromotersForeign inst.Domestic inst.Public
48%38%27%16%5.6%%44.1%15.0%32.2%8.5%Jun 23Dec 24Jun 26
48%38%27%16%5.6%%44.1%15.0%32.2%8.5%Jun 23Dec 24Jun 26
13 · Safety line

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Bharat Forge Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

14 · Related companies · Castings, Forgings & Fastners
CompanyScorePrice stageGrowth & earnings/35Capital efficiency/25Valuation/20Relative strength/20
1Uniparts India LtdUNIPARTS 80.7/100Sector-leading setup100% evidence LEADER 31.6/35 Revenue 27.5% · PAT 85.6% · OPM change 5 pp 100% evidence 17.4/25 ROCE 21.6% · OPM 24% 100% evidence 12.7/20 P/E 20.1× · PEG 0.38 100% evidence 19.0/20 RS sector 23.9% · RS bench 52.9% · 1Y 140.6%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 31.6 + 17.4 + 12.7 + 19 = 80.7 · Decision use: Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.
2Kennametal India LtdKENNAMET 79.5/100Favorable setup100% evidence LEADER 32.3/35 Revenue 29.1% · PAT 91.2% · OPM change 12 pp 100% evidence 19.1/25 ROCE 33.2% · OPM 27% 100% evidence 13.5/20 P/E 39.4× · PEG 1.34 100% evidence 14.6/20 RS sector 14.7% · RS bench 42% · 1Y 69.2%10 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 32.3 + 19.1 + 13.5 + 14.6 = 79.5 · Decision use: Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.
3Happy Forgings LtdHAPPYFORGE 61.5/100Mixed-positive evidence100% evidence LEADER 23.4/35 Revenue 15.5% · PAT 21.1% · OPM change 2 pp 100% evidence 16.8/25 ROCE 18% · OPM 31% 100% evidence 1.5/20 P/E 60.2× · PEG 3.72 100% evidence 19.8/20 RS sector 34.8% · RS bench 66.2% · 1Y 118.4%9 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 23.4 + 16.8 + 1.5 + 19.8 = 61.5 · Decision use: Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.
4Amic Forging Ltd544037 60.0/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence LEADER 17.8/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 5 pp 26% evidence 19.9/25 ROCE 23.5% · OPM 33% 76% evidence 7.5/20 P/E 82.7× · PEG — 50% evidence 14.8/20 RS sector 4.1% · RS bench 29.6% · 1Y 42.7%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 17.8 + 19.9 + 7.5 + 14.8 = 60 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
5Captain Technocast Ltd540652 59.1/100Thin evidence · provisional51% evidence TURNING 20.8/35 Revenue 78.2% · PAT 100% · OPM change -2 pp 48% evidence 18.1/25 ROCE 29.7% · OPM 12% 76% evidence 9.4/20 P/E 54.2× · PEG — 50% evidence 10.8/20 RS sector — · RS bench 27.6% · 1Y —3 of 3 weeks ahead 25% evidence
Exact sum: 20.8 + 18.1 + 9.4 + 10.8 = 59.1 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
6Gala Precision Engineering LtdGALAPREC 59.0/100Mixed-positive evidence80% evidence LEADER 27.3/35 Revenue 31.8% · PAT 37.2% · OPM change 1 pp 95% evidence 14.2/25 ROCE 15.6% · OPM 16.3% 95% evidence 10.2/20 P/E 33.7× · PEG — 15% evidence 7.3/20 RS sector -5.9% · RS bench 16.8% · 1Y 22.2%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 27.3 + 14.2 + 10.2 + 7.3 = 59 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
7Sona BLW Precision Forgings LtdSONACOMS 58.7/100Mixed-positive evidence97% evidence LEADER 22.1/35 Revenue 39.6% · PAT 18.1% · OPM change -1 pp 95% evidence 12.3/25 ROCE 14.2% · OPM 23% 95% evidence 7.0/20 P/E 67.9× · PEG 3.04 100% evidence 17.3/20 RS sector 16.4% · RS bench 44% · 1Y 78%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 22.1 + 12.3 + 7 + 17.3 = 58.7 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
8M M Forgings LtdMMFL 57.2/100Mixed-positive evidence100% evidence BREAKING OUT 18.8/35 Revenue 9.6% · PAT 53.1% · OPM change 0 pp 100% evidence 9.7/25 ROCE 9% · OPM 18% 100% evidence 12.9/20 P/E 25.3× · PEG 0.66 100% evidence 15.8/20 RS sector 12.9% · RS bench 39.5% · 1Y 90.7%7 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 18.8 + 9.7 + 12.9 + 15.8 = 57.2 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
9Uni Abex Alloy Products Ltd504605 56.5/100Mixed-positive evidence82% evidence LEADER 16.3/35 Revenue 17.2% · PAT 100% · OPM change -7 pp 95% evidence 15.2/25 ROCE 19.2% · OPM 10.5% 76% evidence 10.4/20 P/E 19.7× · PEG — 50% evidence 14.6/20 RS sector 3.4% · RS bench 27.8% · 1Y 42.4%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 16.3 + 15.2 + 10.4 + 14.6 = 56.5 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 27.8%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.
10Steelcast LtdSTEELCAS 56.4/100Mixed-positive evidence100% evidence LEADER 15.2/35 Revenue 9.2% · PAT 15.2% · OPM change 0 pp 100% evidence 18.6/25 ROCE 32.3% · OPM 26% 100% evidence 8.6/20 P/E 39.3× · PEG 1.7 100% evidence 14.0/20 RS sector 12.3% · RS bench 38.9% · 1Y 71.9%10 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 15.2 + 18.6 + 8.6 + 14 = 56.4 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 38.9%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.
11Tirupati Forge LtdTIRUPATIFL 52.5/100Mixed-positive evidence80% evidence BREAKING OUT 15.9/35 Revenue 42.3% · PAT -8.4% · OPM change 0.1 pp 95% evidence 8.9/25 ROCE 7.5% · OPM 11.5% 95% evidence 8.7/20 P/E 139× · PEG — 15% evidence 19.0/20 RS sector 20.7% · RS bench 48.4% · 1Y 80.8%10 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 15.9 + 8.9 + 8.7 + 19 = 52.5 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 48.4%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.
12Balu Forge Industries LtdBALUFORGE 50.7/100Mixed-positive evidence94% evidence BASING 14.5/35 Revenue 19.8% · PAT 18.1% · OPM change -3 pp 100% evidence 17.6/25 ROCE 22.7% · OPM 28% 100% evidence 14.4/20 P/E 22.4× · PEG 1.61 100% evidence 4.2/20 RS sector -27.9% · RS bench -8.3% · 1Y -18.5%0 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 14.5 + 17.6 + 14.4 + 4.2 = 50.7 · Decision use: Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity.
13CIE Automotive India LtdCIEINDIA 44.9/100Mixed-negative evidence100% evidence ASLEEP 17.5/35 Revenue 12.5% · PAT 14.3% · OPM change 1 pp 100% evidence 14.4/25 ROCE 14.7% · OPM 15% 100% evidence 11.4/20 P/E 17.2× · PEG 2.4 100% evidence 1.6/20 RS sector -26.9% · RS bench -8.3% · 1Y 2.3%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 17.5 + 14.4 + 11.4 + 1.6 = 44.9 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
14Ramkrishna Forgings LtdRKFORGE 44.5/100Mixed-negative evidence75% evidence BREAKING OUT 14.1/35 Revenue 8.6% · PAT -71.3% · OPM change 4 pp 95% evidence 7.5/25 ROCE 5.6% · OPM 18% 76% evidence 8.8/20 P/E 116× · PEG — 15% evidence 14.1/20 RS sector 3.1% · RS bench 29% · 1Y 25.2%5 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 14.1 + 7.5 + 8.8 + 14.1 = 44.5 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 29%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.
15Bharat Forge Ltdthis pageBHARATFORG 42.6/100Mixed-negative evidence75% evidence FADING 15.1/35 Revenue 17.5% · PAT -30.1% · OPM change -2 pp 95% evidence 11.0/25 ROCE 12.6% · OPM 15% 76% evidence 9.0/20 P/E 97.8× · PEG — 15% evidence 7.5/20 RS sector -0.8% · RS bench 22.4% · 1Y 81.9%9 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 15.1 + 11 + 9 + 7.5 = 42.6 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
16Nelcast LtdNELCAST 39.5/100Mixed-negative evidence87% evidence ASLEEP 13.8/35 Revenue 4.2% · PAT -1.8% · OPM change -3.9 pp 95% evidence 12.1/25 ROCE 11.4% · OPM 4.6% 95% evidence 11.6/20 P/E 25× · PEG — 50% evidence 2.0/20 RS sector -25.9% · RS bench -7.5% · 1Y -31.4%5 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 13.8 + 12.1 + 11.6 + 2 = 39.5 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
17Alicon Castalloy LtdALICON 37.5/100Mixed-negative evidence81% evidence TURNING 11.3/35 Revenue 13.7% · PAT 0% · OPM change -3 pp 95% evidence 10.0/25 ROCE 10% · OPM 9% 95% evidence 10.7/20 P/E 31.8× · PEG — 50% evidence 5.5/20 RS sector -20.7% · RS bench -6.5% · 1Y -12.2%1 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 11.3 + 10 + 10.7 + 5.5 = 37.5 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
18Sterling Tools LtdSTERTOOLS 24.4/100Adverse evidence87% evidence ASLEEP 6.9/35 Revenue -9.3% · PAT -46.4% · OPM change -0.9 pp 95% evidence 9.1/25 ROCE 7.2% · OPM 10.6% 95% evidence 7.2/20 P/E 42.3× · PEG — 50% evidence 1.2/20 RS sector -32.7% · RS bench -14.7% · 1Y -25.7%5 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 6.9 + 9.1 + 7.2 + 1.2 = 24.4 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
19Sundaram Clayton LtdSUNCLAY 23.9/100Adverse evidence74% evidence ASLEEP 10.4/35 Revenue -3.9% · PAT 100% · OPM change -1.2 pp 74% evidence 0.5/25 ROCE -3.3% · OPM 2% 100% evidence 11.5/20 P/E 11× · PEG — 15% evidence 1.5/20 RS sector -29.8% · RS bench -11.6% · 1Y -27.2%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 10.4 + 0.5 + 11.5 + 1.5 = 23.9 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
20Synergy Green Industries LtdSGIL 22.0/100Adverse evidence80% evidence FADING 1.9/35 Revenue -2.5% · PAT -80% · OPM change -8 pp 95% evidence 6.9/25 ROCE 9.2% · OPM 6% 95% evidence 8.5/20 P/E 175× · PEG — 15% evidence 4.7/20 RS sector -19.6% · RS bench 0.8% · 1Y 7%8 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 1.9 + 6.9 + 8.5 + 4.7 = 22 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

Missing observations are not scored as bad. Their missing weight lowers confidence and pulls the final score toward neutral. PEG is not shown when the ratio cannot mean anything: the company must be making a profit, its price-to-earnings must be positive, and its three-year earnings growth must fall between 5% and 60%. Dividing a price multiple by a loss, or by growth measured off a tiny base, produces a number that looks precise and tells you nothing. Under relative strength, one mark per week shows the last 12 weeks: a mark is filled where the company led NIFTY 500 by 5% or more over the 13 weeks ending that week, which is the same test used everywhere on this site. Price stage places the company on the same six-step curve the sector itself is placed on — basing, turning, breaking out, leader, fading, asleep — read from how many weeks running it has led NIFTY 500 and whether that lead is widening or shrinking. It describes where the PRICE stands, not the earnings trajectory and not a recommendation, and it is left blank for a company whose weekly history is too short or too stale to read.

15 · Frequently asked questions

Frequently asked questions

What is Bharat Forge Ltd's share price today?

Bharat Forge Ltd trades at ₹2,065, +74.9% over the past year. The company is valued at ₹98,725 Cr. The stock sits at 82% of its 52-week range of ₹1,181–₹2,265, +14.3% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a confirmed uptrend, 40 weeks in. — as of 14 August 2026.

What were Bharat Forge Ltd's latest quarterly results?

Bharat Forge Ltd reported revenue of ₹4,640 Cr and a net loss of ₹90.0 Cr for the Jun 26 quarter. Revenue rose 18.7% and profit fell 131.7% year on year. Earnings per share were ₹−1.88. The operating margin was 15.0%, 2.0 pp lower than a year earlier. — as of 14 August 2026.

What is Bharat Forge Ltd's revenue?

Bharat Forge Ltd reported revenue of ₹4,640 Cr in the Jun 26 quarter, +18.7% year on year. For the full FY26 fiscal year, revenue was ₹16,812 Cr (+11.2%). Over the last 10 years revenue compounded at 9.5% a year. — as of 14 August 2026.

What is Bharat Forge Ltd's profit?

Bharat Forge Ltd earned ₹−90.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −131.7% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹1,089 Cr. The operating margin ran 15.0% in the latest quarter. — as of 14 August 2026.

What is Bharat Forge Ltd's market cap?

Bharat Forge Ltd's market capitalisation is ₹98,725 Cr at a share price of ₹2,065. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 14 August 2026.

What is Bharat Forge Ltd's P/E ratio?

Bharat Forge Ltd trades at a P/E of 97.8×, at the 96th percentile of its own 11-year range, against a long-run median of 48.6×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 14 August 2026.

Does Bharat Forge Ltd pay a dividend?

Yes — Bharat Forge Ltd's dividend payout was 38% of profit in FY26, and it recorded a payout in 12 of its last 13 reported fiscal years. One of those years shows a negative ratio because profit itself was negative. This page holds the payout ratio, not a per-share amount. — as of 14 August 2026.

Is Bharat Forge Ltd overvalued?

On its own history, Bharat Forge Ltd looks expensive: its P/E of 97.8× sits at the 96th percentile of its 11-year range (long-run median 48.6×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. — as of 14 August 2026.

Is Bharat Forge Ltd growing?

Not right now — Bharat Forge Ltd's latest numbers are shrinking: latest-quarter revenue +18.7% year on year, profit −131.7%, and the margin −2.0 pp at 15.0%. The 10-year compound rates are 9.5% (revenue) and 4.9% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: deteriorating — as of 14 August 2026.

How is Bharat Forge Ltd performing?

Bharat Forge Ltd is in a confirmed uptrend, 40 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 18.7% and profit fell 131.7% year on year. Against the NIFTY 500 it has been ahead on a trailing-13-week view for 50 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 14 August 2026.

What stage is Bharat Forge Ltd in?

Mixed — revenue growth is rising at +17.5% while profit growth is falling at −30.1% — the curves disagree, so the per-curve reads carry the story. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +17.5% latest, profit growth −30.1% latest, eps growth −31.3% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 14 August 2026.

Is Bharat Forge Ltd in an uptrend?

Yes — the price is in a confirmed uptrend (week 40 of stage 2), trading +14.3% versus its 200-day average and at 82% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 14 August 2026.

Is Bharat Forge Ltd beating the market?

On recent form, yes — Bharat Forge Ltd has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 50 straight weeks, the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +456% against the NIFTY 500's +284% — ahead of the index over the full window. — as of 14 August 2026.

Will Bharat Forge Ltd's share price go up?

This page publishes no price forecast for Bharat Forge Ltd. What it measures instead: the share price is ₹2,065, the price is in a confirmed uptrend 40 weeks in. Its P/E of 97.8× sits at the 96th percentile of its own 11-year range. — as of 14 August 2026.

Who owns Bharat Forge Ltd?

Promoters hold 44.1% of Bharat Forge Ltd, foreign institutions 15.0%, domestic institutions 32.2% and the public 8.5% (latest quarter). The biggest move on the register over the last two years: Domestic institutions added 4.2 points over 8 quarters. — as of 14 August 2026.

Does Bharat Forge Ltd have too much debt?

It is moderate — Bharat Forge Ltd's debt-to-equity is 0.76, and operating profit covers the interest bill 9×. FY26 borrowings were ₹7,309 Cr against equity of ₹9,580 Cr. Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind — as of 14 August 2026.

What is Bharat Forge Ltd's capex?

Bharat Forge Ltd spent ₹5,344 Cr on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY26 alone that was ₹2,125 Cr, with ₹1,298 Cr in capital work-in-progress — capacity paid for but not yet earning. — as of 14 August 2026.

What is Bharat Forge Ltd's cash flow?

Bharat Forge Ltd generated ₹1,487 Cr of operating cash flow in FY26 and ₹−638 Cr of free cash flow after ₹2,125 Cr of capital spending. Reported profit that year was ₹1,089 Cr, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. Cash-flow resolution for India is annual. — as of 14 August 2026.

Is Bharat Forge Ltd's profit real cash?

Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 170% of Bharat Forge Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash. Though the latest year ran at 137% — the trend is the thing to watch. In FY26, operating cash was ₹1,487 Cr against reported profit of ₹1,089 Cr. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 14 August 2026.

Where is Bharat Forge Ltd in its business cycle?

Bharat Forge Ltd's FY26 operating margin was 17.0%, against a 13-year band of 13.0%–21.0%: mid-band by its own history — neither the peak that precedes mean-reversion nor the trough that precedes recovery. The latest quarter ran 15.0%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 14 August 2026.

What could break the Bharat Forge Ltd story?

The sharpest disagreement: the price moved +74.9% in a year while annual EPS moved +14.7% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 14 August 2026.

Is Bharat Forge Ltd a stock worth studying right now?

This is not investment advice. The machine read: Bharat Forge Ltd's price has outrun its earnings. +74.9% in a year against EPS +14.7% — the market is paying now for delivery later. The sharpest open question: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 14 August 2026.

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