Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s three tracks disagree. Price, valuation and the earnings engine each tell a different story — the next quarter or two settles it.
Biggest watch item: the price is not yet in a confirmed uptrend — timing risk, not thesis risk.
The price is in a downtrend (1 weeks in). Underneath, the last four quarters read deteriorating — profit −23.1% year on year, and 140% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: the next one or two quarters of delivery.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. trades at $33.8, in a downtrend and 1 weeks into that stage. That is −3.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 30% of a 52-week range of $29 to $44. On relative strength it is currently behind the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view (1 week and counting).
Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 1 of stage 4. At $33.8 it trades −3.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 30% of its 52-week range ($29–$44).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +323% while the S&P 500 moved +263% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (1 week and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-31) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. trades at 34.7× P/E, against too little history to rank. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/E of 34.7× is against too little history to rank. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +2.7% against a −20.5% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.
The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the −3.6%/yr price move, ~+10.7%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−14.3 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.
Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.
Stage: Topping out Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. reads as topping out on its fundamental arc. Topping out — profit and EPS growth have decelerated hard (profit growth +48.0% at its peak → −7.6% latest) while ROCE still reads 24.0%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.
Why it matters: decelerating from a peak is where good stories quietly end — the multiple usually notices late.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +5.5% | +11.4% | — | — |
| Profit | +0.7% | +19.6% | — | — |
| EPS | +2.7% | +21.2% | — | — |
| Stock price | −20.5% | −3.6% | −2.2% | +15.5% |
4-Factor Sector Score
45.8/100 — rank 17 of 29 in Restaurants · 58% evidence confidence
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. scores 45.8 out of 100 against the 29 companies it is compared with in Restaurants, ranking 17. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 14.4 + 14.8 + 9.7 + 6.9 = 45.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. reported $3.1 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +7.3% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 12.1% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $11.9 B. The last four reported quarters add to $12.1 B.
FY25 revenue came in at $11.9 B (+5.5% on the year), capping 4 years at 12.1% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $3.1 B, +7.3% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +5.6% growth against the decade's 12.1% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.
Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +5.6% over the last 4 quarters against +9.1%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit −7.6% vs +6.0%/yr — rolling over.
Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s operating margin is 12.9% in the Mar 26 quarter, −3.8 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 10.6% to 17.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
The latest quarter's operating margin is 12.9%, −3.8 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 10.6%–17.0%.
🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −3.8 pp year on year while gross margin went −2.7 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. earned $0.3 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −23.1% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $1.5 B. The 4-year compound rate is 24.1%. That is 9.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.4 B.
Mar 26 profit was $0.3 B, −23.1% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $1.5 B (+0.7%), and the 4-year compound rate is 24.1%.
🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +7.3% and the margin −3.8 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.
Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −7.5% vs revenue +5.6%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.
Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.
Over the last 3 fiscal years 140% of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $2.1 B of operating cash against $1.5 B of profit. After $0.7 B of capital spending, $1.4 B was left as free cash.
FY25: operating cash of $2.1 B against reported profit of $1.5 B, leaving free cash of $1.4 B after $0.7 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 140% of profit.
Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.
Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.
Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.
Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $2.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 5.6% of FY25 revenue a year.
Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.
On the investment side: capital spending of $2.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.
The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.
Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. earns a ROE of 54% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 28% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +12.7 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 12.9% net margin on 1.33× asset turns.
FY25 ROE is 54%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 28% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.
Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 12.9% net margin × 1.33× asset turns × 3.18× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 54.6% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.
The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 21.0% − 8.3% = a +12.7 pp spread. The 8.3% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every dollar reinvested creates more than a dollar of value — the engine compounds.
Dividend
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. pays no dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.
Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. carries total debt of $5.4 B against shareholder equity of $2.2 B as of Jun 26, a debt-to-equity of 2.46. On the annual view that ratio went from 1.53 in FY21 to 1.80 in FY25. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.
Jun 26: total debt of $5.4 B against shareholder equity of $2.2 B — a debt-to-equity of 2.46. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 1.53 (FY21) to 1.80 (FY25). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.
Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.
4.0% of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s tradable float is currently sold short — some money is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 2.6 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.
The latest reading: 4.0% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 2.6 days to buy those positions back. Some money is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.
Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.: the Z-score reads 6.53. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.
Why it matters: a Z-score of 6.53 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 6.53.
| Company | Score | Price stage | Growth & earnings/35 | Capital efficiency/25 | Valuation/20 | Relative strength/20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brinker International, Inc.EAT | 70.3/100Favorable setup81% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 21.7/35 Revenue 11.8% · PAT 38.9% · OPM change 0.3 pp 83% evidence | 14.1/25 ROCE 8.3% · OPM 11.3% 76% evidence | 15.7/20 P/E 14.4× · PEG 0.35 65% evidence | 18.8/20 RS sector 34.9% · RS bench 30.5% · 1Y 43.6%7 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 21.7 + 14.1 + 15.7 + 18.8 = 70.3 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 2Domino's Pizza, Inc.DPZ | 63.9/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | TURNING | 23.3/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 1.1 pp 45% evidence | 21.0/25 ROCE 35.8% · OPM 20% 76% evidence | 10.9/20 P/E 18.4× · PEG — 15% evidence | 8.7/20 RS sector -11.6% · RS bench -14.7% · 1Y -16.5%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 23.3 + 21 + 10.9 + 8.7 = 63.9 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 3The Cheesecake Factory IncorporatedCAKE | 61.9/100Thin evidence · provisional56% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 19.7/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change -0.4 pp 39% evidence | 11.8/25 ROCE 6.5% · OPM 5.6% 76% evidence | 10.4/20 P/E 21.6× · PEG — 15% evidence | 20.0/20 RS sector 59.2% · RS bench 54.3% · 1Y 72%9 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 19.7 + 11.8 + 10.4 + 20 = 61.9 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 4Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.ARCO | 58.9/100Mixed-positive evidence75% evidence | ASLEEP | 22.8/35 Revenue 7.9% · PAT 74.1% · OPM change 1 pp 83% evidence | 10.0/25 ROCE 2.3% · OPM 5.2% 76% evidence | 16.5/20 P/E 7.4× · PEG 0.18 65% evidence | 9.6/20 RS sector -1.8% · RS bench -4.6% · 1Y 21.8%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 22.8 + 10 + 16.5 + 9.6 = 58.9 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 5Texas Roadhouse, Inc.TXRH | 58.4/100Mixed-positive evidence71% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 14.7/35 Revenue 13.1% · PAT 2.5% · OPM change -3.1 pp 53% evidence | 13.6/25 ROCE 5.6% · OPM 9% 76% evidence | 13.3/20 P/E 26.4× · PEG 0.65 65% evidence | 16.8/20 RS sector 9.9% · RS bench 6.5% · 1Y 20.5%6 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 14.7 + 13.6 + 13.3 + 16.8 = 58.4 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 6.5%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation. | ||||||
| 6Darden Restaurants, Inc.DRI | 58.1/100Mixed-positive evidence85% evidence | BASING | 25.1/35 Revenue 9.4% · PAT 15.4% · OPM change 2.2 pp 95% evidence | 13.9/25 ROCE 5.1% · OPM 13.9% 76% evidence | 12.4/20 P/E 19.6× · PEG 1.16 65% evidence | 6.7/20 RS sector -4.2% · RS bench -7.3% · 1Y 1.3%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 25.1 + 13.9 + 12.4 + 6.7 = 58.1 · Decision use: Acceleration candidate, not a confirmed leader: earnings are strong but sector-relative strength is -4.2% and the one-year return is 1.3%. Do not upgrade until sector-relative strength is above zero and another reported period confirms growth. | ||||||
| 7Restaurant Brands International Inc.QSR | 55.9/100Mixed-positive evidence81% evidence | BASING | 22.6/35 Revenue 9.3% · PAT 6.2% · OPM change 6.2 pp 83% evidence | 13.7/25 ROCE 2.7% · OPM 26.8% 76% evidence | 13.8/20 P/E 26× · PEG 0.49 65% evidence | 5.8/20 RS sector -3.8% · RS bench -6.6% · 1Y 14.5%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 22.6 + 13.7 + 13.8 + 5.8 = 55.9 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 8El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.LOCO | 55.4/100Thin evidence · provisional52% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 18.2/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 0.7 pp 45% evidence | 10.3/25 ROCE 2.3% · OPM 9.7% 76% evidence | 11.2/20 P/E 14.2× · PEG — 15% evidence | 15.7/20 RS sector 24.2% · RS bench 20.9% · 1Y 62.1%11 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 18.2 + 10.3 + 11.2 + 15.7 = 55.4 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 9Yum! Brands, Inc.YUM | 55.2/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | BASING | 21.3/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 0.6 pp 45% evidence | 18.9/25 ROCE 14.4% · OPM 31.3% 76% evidence | 10.6/20 P/E 20.1× · PEG — 15% evidence | 4.4/20 RS sector -10.8% · RS bench -13.5% · 1Y 4.5%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 21.3 + 18.9 + 10.6 + 4.4 = 55.2 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 10Starbucks CorporationSBUX | 53.3/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | ASLEEP | 21.1/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 1.8 pp 45% evidence | 12.7/25 ROCE 4.8% · OPM 8.7% 76% evidence | 9.0/20 P/E 60.1× · PEG — 15% evidence | 10.5/20 RS sector 4% · RS bench 0.9% · 1Y 13.9%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 21.1 + 12.7 + 9 + 10.5 = 53.3 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 11Dine Brands Global, Inc.DIN | 52.1/100Mixed-positive evidence65% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 9.8/35 Revenue 8.4% · PAT -70.9% · OPM change -4 pp 83% evidence | 17.2/25 ROCE 12.3% · OPM 74.1% 76% evidence | 10.5/20 P/E 21.3× · PEG — 15% evidence | 14.6/20 RS sector 7.3% · RS bench 4.2% · 1Y 65.5%9 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 9.8 + 17.2 + 10.5 + 14.6 = 52.1 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 4.2%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation. | ||||||
| 12Dutch Bros Inc.BROS | 50.6/100Mixed-positive evidence71% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 20.3/35 Revenue 28.4% · PAT 63.9% · OPM change -1.3 pp 83% evidence | 7.2/25 ROCE 1.3% · OPM 7.4% 76% evidence | 8.9/20 P/E 79.2× · PEG — 15% evidence | 14.2/20 RS sector 1.9% · RS bench -1.5% · 1Y -3%9 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 20.3 + 7.2 + 8.9 + 14.2 = 50.6 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 13Yum China Holdings, Inc.YUMC | 49.7/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | BASING | 19.5/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 0.3 pp 45% evidence | 13.3/25 ROCE 4% · OPM 13.7% 76% evidence | 11.0/20 P/E 15× · PEG — 15% evidence | 5.9/20 RS sector -5.6% · RS bench -8.6% · 1Y 7.4%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 19.5 + 13.3 + 11 + 5.9 = 49.7 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 14Wingstop Inc.WING | 49.3/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | BASING | 20.2/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 5 pp 45% evidence | 16.7/25 ROCE 8.9% · OPM 27.4% 76% evidence | 9.1/20 P/E 39.6× · PEG — 15% evidence | 3.3/20 RS sector -48.4% · RS bench -50.5% · 1Y -61.5%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 20.2 + 16.7 + 9.1 + 3.3 = 49.3 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 15Super Hi International Holding Ltd.HDL | 48.6/100Mixed-negative evidence75% evidence | BASING | 19.6/35 Revenue 10.1% · PAT -26.3% · OPM change 2.9 pp 83% evidence | 8.3/25 ROCE 2.5% · OPM 6.5% 76% evidence | 14.4/20 P/E 24.3× · PEG 0.41 65% evidence | 6.3/20 RS sector -8.7% · RS bench -19.3% · 1Y -31.4%0 of 11 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 19.6 + 8.3 + 14.4 + 6.3 = 48.6 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 16Biglari Holdings Inc.BH | 47.3/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 20.6/35 Revenue 8.4% · PAT — · OPM change 4.9 pp 62% evidence | 4.0/25 ROCE -0.5% · OPM -4.2% 76% evidence | 8.7/20 P/E 138.1× · PEG — 15% evidence | 14.0/20 RS sector 6.3% · RS bench 2.8% · 1Y 42.8%6 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 20.6 + 4 + 8.7 + 14 = 47.3 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 17Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.this pageCMG | 45.8/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | BASING | 14.4/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change -3.8 pp 45% evidence | 14.8/25 ROCE 6.7% · OPM 12.9% 76% evidence | 9.7/20 P/E 31.2× · PEG — 15% evidence | 6.9/20 RS sector -13% · RS bench -16.1% · 1Y -18.4%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 14.4 + 14.8 + 9.7 + 6.9 = 45.8 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 18Bloomin' Brands, Inc.BLMN | 44.7/100Mixed-negative evidence71% evidence | LEADER | 11.1/35 Revenue 0.9% · PAT -193.9% · OPM change 0.1 pp 83% evidence | 8.7/25 ROCE 2.4% · OPM 5.6% 76% evidence | 10.3/20 P/E 21.9× · PEG — 15% evidence | 14.6/20 RS sector 16.4% · RS bench 12.8% · 1Y 34.5%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 11.1 + 8.7 + 10.3 + 14.6 = 44.7 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 12.8%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation. | ||||||
| 19McDonald's CorporationMCD | 41.9/100Mixed-negative evidence81% evidence | BASING | 18.4/35 Revenue 6.8% · PAT 6.3% · OPM change 0.8 pp 83% evidence | 15.3/25 ROCE 5.5% · OPM 45.3% 76% evidence | 5.1/20 P/E 25.6× · PEG 3.63 65% evidence | 3.1/20 RS sector -17.6% · RS bench -20.3% · 1Y -12.1%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 18.4 + 15.3 + 5.1 + 3.1 = 41.9 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 20The Wendy's CompanyWEN | 40.3/100Mixed-negative evidence75% evidence | TURNING | 11.0/35 Revenue -1.8% · PAT -11.8% · OPM change -3.3 pp 83% evidence | 12.4/25 ROCE 2.3% · OPM 19.2% 76% evidence | 10.9/20 P/E 8.7× · PEG 1.69 65% evidence | 6.0/20 RS sector -12.5% · RS bench -15.6% · 1Y -23.8%3 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 11 + 12.4 + 10.9 + 6 = 40.3 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 21Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.CBRL | 38.9/100Mixed-negative evidence79% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 7.8/35 Revenue -4.9% · PAT -55.2% · OPM change -1 pp 95% evidence | 7.2/25 ROCE 0.4% · OPM 0.8% 76% evidence | 7.5/20 P/E 26.8× · PEG 2.29 65% evidence | 16.4/20 RS sector 41.5% · RS bench 36% · 1Y -0.3%9 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 7.8 + 7.2 + 7.5 + 16.4 = 38.9 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 36%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation. | ||||||
| 22CAVA Group, Inc.CAVA | 37.1/100Thin evidence · provisional56% evidence | BASING | 18.9/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 1.1 pp 39% evidence | 7.2/25 ROCE 2.1% · OPM 5.8% 76% evidence | 8.6/20 P/E 182.3× · PEG — 15% evidence | 2.4/20 RS sector -15.7% · RS bench -18.2% · 1Y -25.4%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 18.9 + 7.2 + 8.6 + 2.4 = 37.1 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 23First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.FWRG | 34.5/100Adverse evidence68% evidence | TURNING | 18.7/35 Revenue 20.4% · PAT 54.5% · OPM change -0.1 pp 62% evidence | 6.3/25 ROCE 0.1% · OPM 0.3% 76% evidence | 4.9/20 P/E 36.8× · PEG 3.06 65% evidence | 4.6/20 RS sector -19% · RS bench -22% · 1Y -27.5%2 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 18.7 + 6.3 + 4.9 + 4.6 = 34.5 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 24Kura Sushi USA, Inc.KRUS | 33.1/100Adverse evidence67% evidence | ASLEEP | 17.8/35 Revenue 18.2% · PAT — · OPM change 0.2 pp 71% evidence | 4.6/25 ROCE 0% · OPM 0% 76% evidence | 8.5/20 P/E 678.8× · PEG — 15% evidence | 2.2/20 RS sector -25.1% · RS bench -28% · 1Y -37.7%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 17.8 + 4.6 + 8.5 + 2.2 = 33.1 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 25Cannae Holdings, Inc.CNNE | 32.0/100Adverse evidence64% evidence | FADING | 9.2/35 Revenue -6.5% · PAT — · OPM change -2.3 pp 62% evidence | 3.4/25 ROCE -1.5% · OPM -23% 76% evidence | 11.4/20 P/E 8.1× · PEG — 15% evidence | 8.0/20 RS sector -8.6% · RS bench -11.8% · 1Y -24.4%9 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 9.2 + 3.4 + 11.4 + 8 = 32 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 26Papa John's International, Inc.PZZA | 31.5/100Adverse evidence75% evidence | BASING | 10.1/35 Revenue -2.4% · PAT -62% · OPM change -0.3 pp 83% evidence | 11.2/25 ROCE 3.6% · OPM 4.3% 76% evidence | 6.2/20 P/E 38.3× · PEG 2.49 65% evidence | 4.0/20 RS sector -26.2% · RS bench -28.9% · 1Y -29.1%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 10.1 + 11.2 + 6.2 + 4 = 31.5 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 27Shake Shack Inc.SHAK | 27.3/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | BASING | 10.6/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change -7 pp 45% evidence | 4.6/25 ROCE -0.2% · OPM -0.7% 76% evidence | 8.8/20 P/E 93.5× · PEG — 15% evidence | 3.3/20 RS sector -27.4% · RS bench -30% · 1Y -37.3%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 10.6 + 4.6 + 8.8 + 3.3 = 27.3 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 28Sweetgreen, Inc.SG | 24.9/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | ASLEEP | 8.9/35 Revenue -1.5% · PAT — · OPM change -4.1 pp 62% evidence | 3.1/25 ROCE -4.5% · OPM -21.3% 76% evidence | 9.3/20 P/E 39.2× · PEG — 15% evidence | 3.6/20 RS sector -26.5% · RS bench -28.9% · 1Y -41.4%8 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 8.9 + 3.1 + 9.3 + 3.6 = 24.9 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 29BJ's Restaurants, Inc.BJRI | 53.2/100Thin evidence · provisional50% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 19.8/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 3.9 pp 39% evidence | 7.1/25 ROCE 2.2% · OPM 3% 76% evidence | 9.6/20 P/E 32.5× · PEG — 15% evidence | 16.7/20 RS sector 50.2% · RS bench 46.1% · 1Y 100.3%11 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 19.8 + 7.1 + 9.6 + 16.7 = 53.2 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
Missing observations are not scored as bad. Their missing weight lowers confidence and pulls the final score toward neutral. PEG is not shown when the ratio cannot mean anything: the company must be making a profit, its price-to-earnings must be positive, and its three-year earnings growth must fall between 5% and 60%. Dividing a price multiple by a loss, or by growth measured off a tiny base, produces a number that looks precise and tells you nothing. Under relative strength, one mark per week shows the last 12 weeks: a mark is filled where the company led S&P 500 by 5% or more over the 13 weeks ending that week, which is the same test used everywhere on this site. Price stage places the company on the same six-step curve the sector itself is placed on — basing, turning, breaking out, leader, fading, asleep — read from how many weeks running it has led S&P 500 and whether that lead is widening or shrinking. It describes where the PRICE stands, not the earnings trajectory and not a recommendation, and it is left blank for a company whose weekly history is too short or too stale to read.
Frequently asked questions
What is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s stock price today?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. trades at $33.8, −20.5% over the past year. The company is valued at $43.0 B. The stock sits at 30% of its 52-week range of $29–$44, −3.0% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a downtrend, 1 weeks in. — as of 5 August 2026.
What were Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s latest quarterly results?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. reported revenue of $3.1 B and net profit of $0.3 B for the Mar 26 quarter. Revenue rose 7.3% and profit fell 23.1% year on year. Earnings per share were $0.23. The operating margin was 12.9%, 3.8 pp lower than a year earlier. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s revenue?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. reported revenue of $3.1 B in the Mar 26 quarter, +7.3% year on year. For the full FY25 fiscal year, revenue was $11.9 B (+5.5%). Over the last 4 years revenue compounded at 12.1% a year. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s profit?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. earned $0.3 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −23.1% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $1.5 B. The operating margin ran 12.9% in the latest quarter. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s market cap?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s market capitalisation is $43.0 B at a stock price of $33.8. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 5 August 2026.
Does Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. pay a dividend?
No — Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. has declared no dividend per share in any of its last 12 reported quarters, so there is no payout history and no yield to quote. That is a reading of the filed statements, not an estimate. — as of 5 August 2026.
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. growing?
Not right now — Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s latest numbers are shrinking: latest-quarter revenue +7.3% year on year, profit −23.1%, and the margin −3.8 pp at 12.9%. The 4-year compound rates are 12.1% (revenue) and 24.1% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: deteriorating — as of 5 August 2026.
How is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. performing?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is in a downtrend, 1 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 7.3% and profit fell 23.1% year on year. Against the S&P 500 it has been behind on a trailing-13-week view for 1 week. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 5 August 2026.
What stage is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. in?
Topping out — profit and EPS growth have decelerated hard (profit growth +48.0% at its peak → −7.6% latest) while ROCE still reads 24.0%. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +5.6% latest, profit growth −7.6% latest, eps growth −3.5% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 5 August 2026.
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. in an uptrend?
No — the price is in a downtrend (week 1 of stage 4), trading −3.0% versus its 200-day average and at 30% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 5 August 2026.
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. beating the market?
Not lately — on a trailing-13-week view Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is currently behind the S&P 500 (1 week and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-31), the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +323% against the S&P 500's +263% — ahead of the index over the full window. — as of 5 August 2026.
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s stock price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. What it measures instead: the stock price is $33.8, the price is in a downtrend 1 weeks in. Direction is not something this site claims to know. — as of 5 August 2026.
Is the market betting against Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.?
Somewhat — short interest is 4.0% of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s tradable float, about 2.6 days to cover at typical volumes. A moderate reading: some money is positioned against it. With no quarter-by-quarter holder register here, short interest is the cleanest crowd read we hold — as of 5 August 2026.
Does Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. have too much debt?
It carries real leverage — Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s debt-to-equity is 2.46. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so the latest reading is the cleanest hold. Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind — as of 5 August 2026.
What is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s capex?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. spent $2.0 B on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY25 alone that was $0.7 B. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s cash flow?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. generated $2.1 B of operating cash flow in FY25 and $1.4 B of free cash flow after $0.7 B of capital spending. Reported profit that year was $1.5 B, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. — as of 5 August 2026.
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s profit real cash?
Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 140% of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY25, operating cash was $2.1 B against reported profit of $1.5 B. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 5 August 2026.
How financially safe is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.?
On the balance sheet, the Z-score reads 6.53 — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the distress zone. That sits well clear of trouble. — as of 5 August 2026.
Where is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. in its business cycle?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s FY25 operating margin was 16.3%, against a 5-year band of 10.6%–17.0%: mid-band by its own history — neither the peak that precedes mean-reversion nor the trough that precedes recovery. The latest quarter ran 12.9%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 5 August 2026.
What could break the Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. story?
Biggest watch item: the price is not yet in a confirmed uptrend — timing risk, not thesis risk. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 5 August 2026.
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s three tracks disagree. Price, valuation and the earnings engine each tell a different story — the next quarter or two settles it. The sharpest open question: the next one or two quarters of delivery. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 5 August 2026.