McDonald's Corporation

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

McDonald's Corporation trades at $268, in a downtrend and 5 weeks into that stage. That is −10.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 5% of a 52-week range of $265 to $341. On relative strength it is currently behind the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view (17 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 5 of stage 4. At $268 it trades −10.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 5% of its 52-week range ($265–$341).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +121% while the S&P 500 moved +263% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (17 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-04-10) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

McDonald's Corporation trades at 21.9× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 3% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 26.2×, measured across 4.3 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 21.9× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 3% of the time, against a long-run median of 26.2× measured over 4.3 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

One caveat before moving on: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. If profitability mean-reverts, today's multiple is higher than it looks.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +4.9% against a −11.4% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the −2.2%/yr price move, ~+3.7%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−5.9 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

McDonald's Corporation reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 12 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

The return-on-capital curve is not shown — net worth is negative, so a return on capital is not a meaningful number in any basis. This is a distressed balance sheet, and the stage is read from the growth curves alone.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

41.9/100 — rank 19 of 29 in Restaurants · 81% evidence confidence

McDonald's Corporation scores 41.9 out of 100 against the 29 companies it is compared with in Restaurants, ranking 19. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 18.4 + 15.3 + 5.1 + 3.1 = 41.9. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

McDonald's Corporation reported $6.5 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +9.4% year on year. That is the 4th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 3.7% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $26.9 B. The last four reported quarters add to $27.4 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $26.9 B (+3.7% on the year), capping 4 years at 3.7% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $6.5 B, +9.4% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +6.9% growth against the decade's 3.7% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +6.8% over the last 4 quarters against +3.2%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +6.3% vs +0.4%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

McDonald's Corporation's operating margin is 45.2% in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.7 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 40.4% to 46.1%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 45.2%, +0.7 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 40.4%–46.1%, and FY25's 46.1% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.7 pp year on year while gross margin went −0.2 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

McDonald's Corporation earned $2.0 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +5.9% year on year. It is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY25 profit was $8.6 B. The 4-year compound rate is 3.2%. That is 30.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $1.9 B.

Mar 26 profit was $2.0 B, +5.9% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY25 printed $8.6 B (+4.1%), and the 4-year compound rate is 3.2%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +9.4% and the margin +0.7 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +6.4% vs revenue +6.9%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 117% of McDonald's Corporation's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $10.6 B of operating cash against $8.6 B of profit. After $3.4 B of capital spending, $7.2 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $10.6 B against reported profit of $8.6 B, leaving free cash of $7.2 B after $3.4 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 117% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

McDonald's Corporation does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $9.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 11.2% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $9.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

McDonald's Corporation earns a ROE of −478% in FY25. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +12.7 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 31.8% net margin on 0.45× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is −478%.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 31.8% net margin × 0.45× asset turns × −33.25× balance-sheet leverage ≈ −475.8% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 18.3% − 5.6% = a +12.7 pp spread. The 5.6% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every dollar reinvested creates more than a dollar of value — the engine compounds.

Dividend A dividend is cash paid out per share. Dividend per share is the declared amount for the period; the trailing twelve-month total is the four most recent quarters added together.

McDonald's Corporation paid $7.26 per share over the last four reported quarters, up 5.1% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $1.86 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $268 that is a trailing yield of 2.71%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.

McDonald's Corporation paid $7.26 per share across the last four reported quarters, most recently $1.86 for Mar 26. That is up 5.1% against the same quarter a year earlier. Against the current price of $268 the trailing twelve months work out to 2.71% — trailing dividends measured against today's price, not a forward estimate.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

McDonald's Corporation's net worth is negative — it owes more than it owns — so a debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful here. On the annual view that ratio went from −10.73 in FY21 to −30.62 in FY25. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of $54.9 B against shareholder equity of $−1.3 B — a debt-to-equity of −42.54. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from −10.73 (FY21) to −30.62 (FY25). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

1.6% of McDonald's Corporation's tradable float is currently sold short — the crowd is not positioned against this stock. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 2.3 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

The latest reading: 1.6% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 2.3 days to buy those positions back. The crowd is not positioned against this stock. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.

Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

McDonald's Corporation: the Z-score reads 4.98. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 4.98 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 4.98.

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