Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd trades at ₹86.0, in a downtrend and 98 weeks into that stage. That is −7.4% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 26% of a 52-week range of ₹76 to ₹115. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (2 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 98 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹86.0 it trades −7.4% versus its 200-day average and sits at 26% of its 52-week range (₹76–₹115).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.9 years the stock moved −47% while the NIFTY 500 moved −4% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (2 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-17) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each ₹1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.

Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd trades at 3.2× P/BV, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 4% of the time. Its long-run median P/BV is 4.3×, measured across 1.8 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/BV of 3.2× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 4% of the time, against a long-run median of 4.3× measured over 1.8 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

The honest context for that discount: a bank earning about 12% on its equity is worth less per rupee of book, and the market has priced that in rather than overlooked it. The discount closes only if the returns themselves improve.

One caveat before moving on: the net margin is the best this company has ever printed — cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. If profitability mean-reverts, today's multiple is higher than it looks.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year book value grew while the price moved −23.8% — price and book moved together, holding the multiple in its range.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — the growth curves are steadily positive, but ROE at 11.4% is below the 12% bar this page requires to call it Consistent. The read is built from 10 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

42.7/100 — rank 11 of 13 in Finance - Housing · 87% evidence confidence

Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd scores 42.7 out of 100 against the 13 companies it is compared with in Finance - Housing, ranking 11. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 19.1 + 11.7 + 4.2 + 7.7 = 42.7. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fee and other income.

Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd reported ₹3,063 Cr of income in the Jun 26 quarter, +17.1% year on year. That is the 10th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 6 years it has compounded at 86.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹11,150 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹11,605 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹11,150 Cr (+16.7% on the year), capping 6 years at 86.5% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹3,063 Cr, +17.1% year on year — the 10th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +16.3% growth against the decade's 86.5% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +16.3% over the last 4 quarters against +20.0%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +18.9% vs +24.0%/yr — rolling over.

Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every ₹100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. It is the cleanest single margin we can read for a lender.

Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd's net margin is 23.3% in the Jun 26 quarter, +1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 7 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 14.4% to 23.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's net margin is 23.3%, +1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 14.4%–23.0%, and FY26's 23.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd earned ₹715 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +22.6% year on year. It is the 10th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹2,560 Cr. The 6-year compound rate is 98.4%. That is 23.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹583 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹715 Cr, +22.6% year on year — the 10th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹2,560 Cr (+18.4%), and the 6-year compound rate is 98.4%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +17.1% and the margin +1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +19.0% vs revenue +16.3%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.

Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.

Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd's gross NPA is 0.27% of the loan book in Mar 26, down from 0.29% a year ago. Net of provisions already set aside, 0.11% remains. Across the 11 quarters held here the book has ranged 0.24% to 0.30%. Falling NPAs are a loan book healing; rising NPAs are damage arriving.

Mar 26: gross NPA at 0.27% and net NPA at 0.11%, against 0.29% / 0.11% a year ago. Over the 11 quarters we hold, the book's worst reading was 0.30% and its best is 0.24%.

The synthesis: profit growth at a bank is only as good as the book behind it, and this book is better than a year ago. A note on depth: quarterly provisioning detail is not in our numbers yet, so this ladder reads levels and trend, not the cost of the cleanup.

Why the ladder moved: recoveries, write-offs and slippages each play a part, and that split sits below what we hold — the numbers show the healing; the driver mix does not travel with them.

The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book grows, revenue grows with it. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.

Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd's revenue grew +16.7% in FY26 to ₹11,150 Cr, so the book is growing. The latest quarter ran +17.1% year on year. The net margin on that income is 23.3%, +1.0 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.

FY26 revenue was ₹11,150 Cr, +16.7% on the year, and the latest quarter ran +17.1% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 23.3% this quarter (+1.0 pp YoY) — growth with a widening margin on it.

The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — gross NPA is the loan-quality read we carry here.

Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.

Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd earns a return on equity of 12% in FY26. Its trough over the ladder below was 8% in FY20. For a lender the balance sheet is the operating asset, so equity return and asset return have to be read together.

FY26 ROE came in at 12%, recovered from a FY20 trough of 8%. On assets, the latest reading is about null% — every ₹100 the bank deploys earns roughly null a year. That return is below the bar a bank must clear to compound book value quickly — which is also the honest reason the stock trades where it does.

Why ROE moved: profit compounded 98.4% a year over 6 years while the equity base grew more slowly — earnings recovering faster than book value builds is what lifts ROE off a trough.

Debt

For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.

A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 2.0 points of Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd over 7 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 86.7% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −0.8 points over the same window, to 0.9%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −2.0 points over 7 quarters to 86.7%; Foreign institutions: −0.8 points over 7 quarters to 0.9%; Domestic institutions: −0.8 points over 7 quarters to 1.0%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−2.0 points), alongside foreign institutions (−0.8 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.

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