Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd trades at ₹457, in a confirmed uptrend and 13 weeks into that stage. That is −5.9% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 15% of a 52-week range of ₹439 to ₹556. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (4 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 13 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹457 it trades −5.9% versus its 200-day average and sits at 15% of its 52-week range (₹439–₹556).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 2.3 years the stock moved +31% while the NIFTY 500 moved +8% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (4 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-08-14) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 17 August 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: Going affordable-housing lender after a PE fund-to-fund; seasonal credit-cost saw-tooth with a write-off disclosure hole. Marker count: 19 not due yet. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 22 August 2026.

From the numbers. AUM delivered; Q1 PAT 282.36 versus Q4 310.92 down 9.3 percent; credit cost 31.67 versus 10.17; quarterly write-off column GAP.

From the price. Price about 498 rupees, market value about 21,788 crore rupees; dual price-to-book 2.88 / 2.95 versus median 3.05; results day plus 0.66 percent.

From the research. Ten calls show dated walk-backs; promoter event was PE fund-to-fund plus a 10 percent public SPV, silent on every call after listing.

🚨 Where they disagree. The three streams agree this is a going rated housing lender. They disagree with the old gold-tier DEPLOY sticker. Convergence is false: only Yield Spread Supremacy is CORE applied_for.

What is proven. FY26 AUM 30,571 crore rupees DELIVERED against the 30,000 crore rupee milestone; June AUM 31,364 crore rupees; spread held at 5.8 percent; CRAR 43.39 percent; CARE AA+ Stable; sequential Q1 profit drop of 28.56 crore rupees closes on credit cost plus day-1 plus funding cost

What is not proven yet. Whether March GNPA 1.08 percent was a destination or a trough, because FY26-quarter and Q1 FY27 write-off rupees are GAP; whether 17 to 18 percent disbursement and 17 to 18 percent return on equity ever print on the stated basis; whether day-1 assignment income of 13.7 percent of Q1 profit before tax is a recurring fee or sold-loan gain

🚨 What would change our mind. Next two results print write-off rupees beside GNPA, Q2 credit cost falls toward 23 to 25 basis points without parked-cheque theatre, and promoter plus AXDI share counts stay flat

Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — KEEP. Shares fell 11% because a big holder sold 10% of the company, not because this 18-20% housing lender weakened. The lending engine did not miss a beat: loan book 31,364 crore up 18% and profit 282 crore up 19%, bad loans 1.31% versus 1.34% a year earlier with net bad loans flat at 0.90%, and 99% of instalments collected on time. Meanwhile the share price fell 11% over the year — and I traced the cause to supply, not to fundamentals: a promoter block of 10.3 percentage points came out in the March quarter (75.19% to 64.90%), which is a mechanical overhang rather than an earnings signal. What holds the verdict at P2 is earnings quality the numbers alone hide: the fund's own operating-cycle dive on this company records that a one-off loan-sale gain is 13.7% of pre-tax profit an…

What would change Layer 1’s mind. Two consecutive quarters with gross bad loans above 1.75%, or Stage-2 loans turning back up, or credit cost failing to fall from 40.9 towards the guided 23-25 basis points — that is the research record's own falsification line and I adopt it. The sharper L1 version specific to what I found: if the remaining 64.66% promoter stake is cut again before write-off figures start being disclosed, I stop reading the de-rating as harmless supply and treat it as informed selling into an unverifiable loan…

Layer 2 read, 22 August 2026 — BENCH. Healthy loan growth is real, but the missing disclosure proof still blocks promotion. AUM grew 18.0% and like-for-like profit grew 19.0%, while collection efficiency was 99.0%. The external capital row is supportive, but the standing FY27-Q1 WATCH record still requires write-off rupees under M1 and lower credit cost under M2, and the management-credibility model says delivery must precede promotion.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. BENCH becomes ADVANCE if the next two results print write-off rupees beside GNPA, credit cost moves toward 23-25 bps without parked-cheque distortion, and promoter plus AXDI share counts stay flat.

The test written in advance. Write-off disclosure beside GNPA — Same-period write-off rupees next to GNPA / Stage 3 a rupee disclosed, not blank; FY26 annual-report 39.33 crore rupees reconciled into the quarterly spine by FY27-Q2 results, November 2026.

The test written in advance. Q2 credit cost toward the year-end talk — Credit cost rupees and basis points back toward 23 to 25 basis points full-year path, not stuck near Q1 40.9 basis points by FY27-Q2 results, November 2026.

The test written in advance. Stage 3 with write-offs — Stage 3 gross rupees and percent, with write-off rupees Stage 3 not above 2 percent for two consecutive quarters; write-off rupee in the same sentence by FY27-Q3 results, February 2027.

What the company does. Aadhar lends small fully secured home loans and loans against property, typical ticket about 10 to 11 lakh rupees, funded by banks, the National Housing Bank, bonds and a small foreign loan, originated through 628 branches and local introducers. About three-quarters of the book is a home loan; about one-quarter is loan against property. There is no developer book.

How the money is made. Profit equals loan book times lending spread plus fees plus day-1 assignment and co-lending gain minus operating cost minus credit cost (provisions plus write-offs) minus tax.

Did the business cover its own costs? Operating profit covered credit cost and write-offs against pre-provision operating profit in 7 of 14 periods; cumulatively . PPoP covered the provision line wherever we have official numbers. That is not the same as covering losses that left the book. Black Box remains violated.

🚨 Gold-tier 1.08 percent versus the write-off column. Pipeline L3/CIO called March GNPA 1.08 percent best-in-class. That print is a seasonal trough beside annual-report write-offs 39.33 crore rupees. June is 1.31 / 1.32 / Stage 3 339.8 crore rupees beside write-off GAP. The brochure and the arithmetic disagree.

🚨 Year-on-year plus 19 percent versus sequential minus 9.3 percent. The easy slide is PAT 282 versus 237. The honest slide is 282 versus 311. Credit cost 31.67 versus 10.17 and day-1 49.94 versus 70.49 close the gap. Results day plus 0.66 percent priced the shrug, not a collapse.

🚨 Promoter dump versus PE fund-to-fund. Layer 3 BENCH on 2026-06-27 treated a 10 percentage-point promoter drop as selling. Filings name BCP Topco VII to BCP Asia II Holdco VII off-market at 425 rupees plus AXDI 10.09 percent public. Not founder dump. Not skin in the game. DII_BUYING does not cancel minus 10.95 percentage points. Silent on ten calls.

🚨 AUM DELIVERED versus the engine MISSED. 30,571 crore rupees printed. Disbursement 18 to 20 percent did not. Branches 70 to 75 did not. Lower BT-out rescued AUM. That is a different machine than the one sold in 2024.

🚨 Compressed price-to-book versus no inflection. Dual 2.88 / 2.95 versus median 3.05 with GOLDEN_SETUP flagged and low_reliability true. AUM growth 23 percent to 18 percent, Q1 ROE 14.7 percent, write-off hole open. Screen and business disagree. GARP cannot stamp DEPLOY.

Lever 16 · Asset quality — ACTIVE. Seasonal June GNPA pop versus March trough, credit-cost saw-tooth, and a missing quarterly write-off column. Secured book and 5 percent BT-out are real insulation, not a substitute for write-off rupees. What proves it keeps working: Q2 FY27 GNPA / Stage 3 printed with same-period write-off rupees, and credit cost back toward 23 to 25 basis points. It stops working if Write-offs stay undisclosed, or Stage 3 stays above 2 percent for two quarters, or Q2 credit cost stays near 40.9 basis points while they still guide 23 to 25.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — ACTIVE. Day-1 assignment gain is 13.7 percent of Q1 profit before tax on 397.42 crore rupees sold and 14.3 percent of FY26 PBT. Qual 9M net 22 to 28 crore rupees is a different family. Sold-loan gain is mix, not spread. What proves it keeps working: Q2 day-1 in crore and as a percent of PBT; net DA impact (day-1 minus unwinding) disclosed in rupees. It stops working if Day-1 stays at or above 10 percent of PBT while they sell a 20 percent compounder story, or assignment volume falls without the spread replacing it.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. Cost-to-income improved as AUM scaled, then a 14 crore rupee-a-quarter stock-option cost arrived. That is a grind, not a catapult. What proves it keeps working: Cost-to-income excluding ESOP stays at or below about 36 percent as AUM grows. It stops working if Cost-to-income including ESOP reverses above 36 percent while branch adds stay slow.

Lever 3 · Management change — ACTIVE. BCP Topco VII sold 75.19 percent off-market at 425 rupees to BCP Asia II Holdco VII (64.66 percent) plus AXDI LDII SPV 1 Ltd 10.09 percent public. PE fund-life, not founder dump, and not skin in the game. Silent on ten calls. What proves it keeps working: Promoter share count unchanged at 28,27,88,827 and AXDI still about 10 percent on the next shareholding pattern. It stops working if AXDI or the new promoter sells without NHB consent theatre, or a second regulator penalty row appears.

What this research does not know. Quarterly write-off rupees for FY26 quarters and Q1 FY27 — working column GAP. FY25 call 32 crore rupees and FY26 annual-report 39.33 crore rupees exist; they are not a 14-quarter series.; Net DA impact (day-1 minus unwinding) in rupees for FY26 and Q1 FY27. Qual 9M net 22 to 28 crore rupees is not that number.; FY26 statutory assignment note: about 1,580.48 crore rupees versus call about 1,725 crore rupees — which is gross versus investor-share.; Q2/Q3 intra-year AUM, disbursement and BT-out points the investor-presentation charts skip.; Which book sits under price-to-book 2.88 versus June net worth 7,853 crore rupees (the 2.77 path).; Share count at December 2025 for exact promoter-share arithmetic on the open-offer date.

Sources: Aadhar Q1 FY27 investor presentation (31 July 2026); Aadhar Q1 FY27 unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results (31 July 2026); Aadhar Q1 FY27 press release (31 July 2026); Aadhar Q1 FY27 earnings call transcript (company IR) (31 July 2026); Aadhar FY26 investor presentation (5 May 2026); Aadhar Q1 FY26 investor presentation (25 July 2025); Aadhar FY26 audited results (5 May 2026); Aadhar FY26 annual report and AGM notice (1 August 2026); +20 more. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fee and other income.

Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd reported ₹993 Cr of income in the Jun 26 quarter, +17.1% year on year. That is the 10th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 7 years it has compounded at 16.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹3,683 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹3,818 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹3,683 Cr (+18.5% on the year), capping 7 years at 16.5% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹993 Cr, +17.1% year on year — the 10th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +17.7% growth against the decade's 16.5% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +17.7% over the last 4 quarters against +18.8%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +20.1% vs +19.2%/yr — stabilising.

Why-sources: our stock research file (17 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every ₹100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. It is the cleanest single margin we can read for a lender.

Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd's net margin is 28.4% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.5 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 8 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 12.8% to 29.8%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. Exit spread held at 5.8 percent after a 15 basis-point February prime-lending-rate cut; cost of funds 7.7 percent; yield 13.5 percent. Official Q1 net interest margin in rupees is 620.80 crore (total income 997.19 minus finance costs 376.39). Spread is real. Day-1 13.7 percent of PBT still sits in reported profit.

The latest quarter's net margin is 28.4%, +0.5 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 8 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 12.8%–29.8%, and FY26's 29.8% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd earned ₹282 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +19.0% year on year. It is the 10th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹1,096 Cr. The 7-year compound rate is 31.4%. That is 28.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹237 Cr.

🚨 Why this happened. Q1 PAT 282.36 versus Q4 310.92 (minus 9.3 percent) versus Q1 last year 237.28 (plus 19 percent). Sequential drop closes: extra credit cost 21.50 plus PPoP minus 13.12. Day-1 49.94 equals 13.7 percent of PBT. ESOP 14 crore rupees is a year-on-year extra. PPoP 395.30 versus rounded financing profit 368.

Jun 26 profit was ₹282 Cr, +19.0% year on year — the 10th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹1,096 Cr (+20.2%), and the 7-year compound rate is 31.4%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +17.1% and the margin +0.5 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +20.0% vs revenue +17.7%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.

Reported profit rose with AUM and with sold-loan day-1 inside it · FY23-Q4 → FY26-Q4. Spine starts here. GNPA GAP. Financing profit rounded 209. Write-off GAP. GNPA 1.46 percent on AUM. AUM 17,947. Disbursement 1,438. Write-off GAP.

Why-sources: our stock research file (17 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.

Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd's gross NPA is 1.31% of the loan book in Jun 26, down from 1.34% a year ago. Net of provisions already set aside, 0.90% remains. Across the 12 quarters held here the book has ranged 1.05% to 1.40%. Falling NPAs are a loan book healing; rising NPAs are damage arriving.

Why this happened. Industrial operating cash flow is NOT_APPLICABLE. Annual OCF is negative because new loans are cash going out. Lender substitute is credit cost plus write-offs plus funding access. Credit cost is known. Write-offs are GAP for Q1 and unreconciled for FY26 quarters. Funding is open: CRAR 43.39 percent, CARE AA+ Stable, liquidity 2,371, undrawn 991.

🚨 Why this happened. June GNPA 1.31 percent of AUM / 1.32 percent of loans / Stage 3 339.8 crore rupees sits beside write-off GAP. March 1.08 percent was a seasonal trough beside annual-report write-offs 39.33 crore rupees. Q1 credit cost 31.67 crore rupees (40.9 bps) versus Q4 10.17. Stage 3 cover about 34 percent. Do not reprint 1.08 percent as best-in-class.

Jun 26: gross NPA at 1.31% and net NPA at 0.90%, against 1.34% / 1.00% a year ago. Over the 12 quarters we hold, the book's worst reading was 1.40% and its best is 1.05%.

The synthesis: profit growth at a bank is only as good as the book behind it, and this book is better than a year ago. A note on depth: quarterly provisioning detail is not in our numbers yet, so this ladder reads levels and trend, not the cost of the cleanup.

Why the ladder moved: recoveries, write-offs and slippages each play a part, and that split sits below what we hold — the numbers show the healing; the driver mix does not travel with them.

The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book grows, revenue grows with it. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.

Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd's revenue grew +18.5% in FY26 to ₹3,683 Cr, so the book is growing. The latest quarter ran +17.1% year on year. The net margin on that income is 28.4%, +0.5 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.

Why this happened. AUM 31,364 crore rupees is plus 18 percent year on year against a 20 percent medium-term guide. FY26 30,571 DELIVERED the 30,000 crore rupee milestone at plus 19.7 percent recomputed. The original engine was 18 to 20 percent disbursement; FY25 printed plus 16 and FY26 plus 17. Lower BT-out rescued AUM. Q1 handover 2,359 versus clearance 2,036 parks 323 crore rupees into Q2.

FY26 revenue was ₹3,683 Cr, +18.5% on the year, and the latest quarter ran +17.1% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 28.4% this quarter (+0.5 pp YoY) — growth with a widening margin on it.

The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — gross NPA is the loan-quality read we carry here.

Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.

Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd earns a return on equity of 16% in FY26. Its trough over the ladder below was 12% in FY20. For a lender the balance sheet is the operating asset, so equity return and asset return have to be read together.

🚨 Why this happened. FY26 ROE 15.9 percent without labour code; Q1 14.7 percent. The 17 to 18 percent recovery is MISSED so far. Excess CRAR 43 percent plus ESOP 14 crore rupees plus IPO primary still sitting in net worth explain the drag. FY24 ROE about 18 percent is the memory, not the current print.

FY26 ROE came in at 16%, recovered from a FY20 trough of 12%. Return on assets is withheld on this page — its two source series disagree for this quarter. That clears the bar a bank must beat for its book value to compound.

Why ROE moved: profit compounded 31.4% a year over 7 years while the equity base grew more slowly — earnings recovering faster than book value builds is what lifts ROE off a trough.

Debt

For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.

Why this happened. Borrowings about 20,000 crore rupees (plus 19 percent year on year). Mix: banks 49, NHB 24, NCDs 17, foreign 7, others 3. Gross gearing 2.55 times on June net worth; net debt-equity 2.36 after cash. Incremental Q1 borrowings 2,238 crore rupees at 7.3 percent. They will not lever fast: 3 times first, rating comfort about 4.5 times for a AA name.

A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 11.8 points of Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 64.7% of the company. Foreign institutions moved +1.6 points over the same window, to 5.8%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

🚨 Why this happened. Promoter 75.61 percent March 2025 to 64.90 March 2026 to 64.66 June 2026 (minus 10.95 percentage points). BCP Topco VII sold 75.19 percent off-market 25 to 26 February 2026 at 425 rupees to BCP Asia II Holdco VII (64.66 percent) plus AXDI LDII SPV 1 Ltd 10.09 percent public. June dip is ESOP dilution; promoter share count flat at 28,27,88,827. NHB non-disposal undertaking on the whole promoter block, 26 percent floor. DII buying (mutual funds 5.53 to 6.70) does not cancel the cliff. Silent on ten calls.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −11.8 points over 8 quarters to 64.7%; Foreign institutions: +1.6 points over 8 quarters to 5.8%; Domestic institutions: +1.4 points over 8 quarters to 9.9%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−11.8 points), absorbed on the other side by foreign institutions (+1.6 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.

Why this happened. One RBI/NHB monetary penalty in the last 24 months: 5 lakh rupees on 2 September 2024 for charging interest before actual disbursement. Same Fair Practices issue as the Q1 cheque-clearance change. FY26 annual report no RBI fine in 2025-26 is true for that year only. Q1 limited review not qualified. 39 fraud cases of 1 lakh-plus reported to NHB/RBI in FY26; rupee total GAP. CARE AA+ Stable 13 July 2026 is the live rating.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.

Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each ₹1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.

Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd trades at 2.6× P/BV, about the cheapest it has ever traded. Its long-run median P/BV is 3.1×, measured across 1.9 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Why this happened. Primary lens is price-to-book versus return on equity, not PE about 18.9. Dual prints 2.88 and 2.95 (and 2.77 on June net worth 7,853 crore rupees) versus own median 3.05, percentile 25, COMPRESSED, GOLDEN_SETUP flagged, DII_BUYING, low_reliability true, sufficiency MODERATE. GARP is screen only. Price about 498 rupees; market value about 21,788 crore rupees. Results day 31 July 2026 closed 497.25, plus 0.66 percent.

Today's P/BV of 2.6× is about the cheapest it has ever traded, against a long-run median of 3.1× measured over 1.9 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

One caveat before moving on: the net margin is the best this company has ever printed — cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. If profitability mean-reverts, today's multiple is higher than it looks.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year book value grew while the price moved −9.8% — price and book moved together, holding the multiple in its range.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 26 August 2026 price, Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 10.5% a year. Profit itself has compounded 31.4% a year over the past 7 years. Today the market pays 2.6× P/BV, the 1st percentile of its own 2-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is low against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 26 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue and profit growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROE at 14.5% and holding. The read is built from 10 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

59.4/100 — rank 4 of 13 in Finance - Housing · 94% evidence confidence

Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd scores 59.4 out of 100 against the 13 companies it is compared with in Finance - Housing, ranking 4. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 21.7 + 19.1 + 8.3 + 10.3 = 59.4. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Quarterly scorecard

19 markers came out of our Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd research file of 17 August 2026, and each results season scores every one of them. No results season has been scored against them yet. A row is permanent: a miss stays on the record after it is fixed.

Said versus delivered

What Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 6 tracked promises on the record. Scored in our research file, promise by promise. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Said 2026-01-30, due FY26 close — not due yet. Promised: Cross 30,000 crore rupees AUM by FY26-end (the pipeline claim). What arrived: AUM 30,571 crore rupees; 30,571 / 25,531 equals plus 19.7 percent versus spoken plus 20 percent.

🚨 Said 2024-08-08, due FY25 close — missed. Promised: 18 to 20 percent disbursement growth driving 20 to 23 percent AUM (same call also 22 to 23 percent this year). What arrived: Disbursement 8,192 crore rupees, plus 16 percent. AUM plus 21 percent.

🚨 Said 2024-11-06, due FY25 close — missed. Promised: AUM 22 to 24 percent; profit 23 to 27 percent (explicitly not 30 to 35 percent). What arrived: AUM plus 21 percent. PAT 912 / 750 equals plus 21.6 percent.

🚨 Said 2024-08-08, due FY25 close — missed. Promised: 70 to 75 new branches in FY25. What arrived: 6 Feb 2025 already cut to about 55. 6 May 2025: 57 added.

Said 2025-05-06, due FY26 close — not due yet. Promised: FY26 disbursement 18 to 19 percent; AUM 20 to 21 percent; PAT 20 to 21 percent. What arrived: Disbursement plus 17 percent. AUM plus 19.7 percent recomputed (spoken plus 20). PAT 1,096 / 912 equals plus 20.2 percent (1,108 without labour code equals plus 21.5 percent).

🚨 Said 2025-07-25, due FY26 close — missed. Promised: FY26 disbursement 18 to 20 percent; AUM 20 to 22 percent. What arrived: Disbursement plus 17 percent. AUM plus 20 percent spoken / 19.7 percent recomputed.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Governance

What we checked on how Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd is run. 6 items came back clean and 7 are being watched. Read from the company’s own filings and earnings calls; a watch item is a question, not a finding.

Clean (6). Joint statutory auditors, RBI rotation observed: S.R. Batliboi continuing; Kirtane and Pandit term ended 6 Aug 2026; N.M. Raiji and Co. recommended FY27 to FY29, fee up to 45 lakh rupees, no non-audit work; FY26 audit unmodified; no 143(12) fraud report to the Board; Q1 limited review not qualified; No Section 188 material related-party transactions in FY26; no transactions with promoter-group holders of 10 percent or more; AOC-2 not applicable; MD and CEO Rishi Anand pay 47.23 times median employee; Executive Vice Chairman 45.69 times; median employee pay plus 1.16 percent; 5,430 permanent staff at year-end (5,671 at 30 Jun 2026); Board chaired by Raj Vikash Verma (ex-NHB, independent); independents include Sharmila Karve and Punita Kumar Sinha; Blackstone nominees unpaid; Material fraud to NHB / 143(12): none of 1 crore rupees or more in FY26.

🚨 On watch (7). Promoter 75.61 percent (Mar 2025) to 64.90 (Mar 2026) to 64.66 (Jun 2026), minus 10.95 percentage points: BCP Topco VII sold 75.19 percent off-market 25 to 26 Feb 2026 at 425 rupees to BCP Asia II Holdco VII; AXDI LDII SPV 1 Ltd 10.09…; NHB non-disposal undertaking on the entire 28,27,88,827 promoter shares (7 Apr 2026), 26 percent floor while refinance is outstanding; aggregator 40 percent pledge is a misread of 26 / 64.66; AXDI 10.09 percent sitting in the public bucket is a second 10 percent block, not India retail piling in; ESOP Plan 2020: 93,35,814 options outstanding at 31 Mar 2026; Plan 2025 pool 3,11,22,170; Q1 P and L already took 14 crore rupees; Jun 24 basis-point promoter dip is this dilution; 39 fraud cases of 1 lakh rupees or more reported to NHB/RBI in FY26; rupee total not disclosed; FY26 annual-report rating table still printed CARE AA at 31 Mar 2026 while CARE 13 Jul 2026 PDF is AA+ Stable; RBI/NHB 5 lakh rupee Fair Practices penalty on 2 Sep 2024 (interest before disbursement) sits next to the Q1 2026 cheque-clearance governance change — same issue, 22 months later.

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