NICE Ltd.

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

NICE Ltd. trades at $103, in a downtrend and 57 weeks into that stage. That is −4.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 27% of a 52-week range of $85 to $153. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 1 straight week.

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 57 of stage 4. At $103 it trades −4.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 27% of its 52-week range ($85–$153).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +60% while the S&P 500 moved +263% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 1 straight week — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

NICE Ltd. trades at 11.3× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 5% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 31.0×, measured across 4.3 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 11.3× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 5% of the time, against a long-run median of 31.0× measured over 4.3 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

One caveat before moving on: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. If profitability mean-reverts, today's multiple is higher than it looks.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +43.0% against a −32.5% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the −21.3%/yr price move, ~+22.4%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−43.7 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Topping out Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

NICE Ltd. reads as topping out on its fundamental arc. Topping out — profit and EPS growth have decelerated hard (profit growth +35.0% at its peak → +12.8% latest) while ROCE still reads 16.6%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: decelerating from a peak is where good stories quietly end — the multiple usually notices late.

4-Factor Sector Score

No sector-relative score — NICE Ltd. is not among the largest members shown in this industry comparison for Software - Application.

The score is a rank WITHIN a peer set: every metric is scored by percentile against the other members. Without the peer set there is no score to state, so none is invented here.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

NICE Ltd. reported $0.8 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +10.0% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 11.3% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $3.0 B. The last four reported quarters add to $3.0 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $3.0 B (+7.7% on the year), capping 4 years at 11.3% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $0.8 B, +10.0% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +9.0% growth against the decade's 11.3% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +9.0% over the last 4 quarters against +10.8%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +12.8% vs +19.7%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

NICE Ltd.'s operating margin is 16.9% in the Mar 26 quarter, −4.5 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 13.5% to 22.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 16.9%, −4.5 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 13.5%–22.0%, and FY25's 22.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −4.5 pp year on year while gross margin went −3.5 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

NICE Ltd. earned $0.1 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −61.5% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.6 B. The 4-year compound rate is 32.2%. That is 6.5% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.1 B.

Mar 26 profit was $0.1 B, −61.5% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.6 B (+38.6%), and the 4-year compound rate is 32.2%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +10.0% and the margin −4.5 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +15.9% vs revenue +9.0%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra dollar of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 152% of NICE Ltd.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $0.7 B of operating cash against $0.6 B of profit. After $0.0 B of capital spending, $0.7 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $0.7 B against reported profit of $0.6 B, leaving free cash of $0.7 B after $0.0 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 152% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

NICE Ltd. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $0.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 0.0% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $0.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

NICE Ltd. earns a ROE of 16% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 7% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +9.7 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 20.7% net margin on 0.58× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is 16%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 7% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 20.7% net margin × 0.58× asset turns × 1.32× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 15.8% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 13.9% − 4.2% = a +9.7 pp spread. The 4.2% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every dollar reinvested creates more than a dollar of value — the engine compounds.

Dividend

NICE Ltd. pays no dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.

NICE Ltd. does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

NICE Ltd. carries total debt of $0.1 B against shareholder equity of $3.7 B as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.02 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.33 in FY21 to 0.02 in FY25. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of $0.1 B against shareholder equity of $3.7 B — a debt-to-equity of 0.02. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.33 (FY21) to 0.02 (FY25). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

No ownership or positioning reading is held for NICE Ltd., so this section names the gap rather than filling it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 4.9 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

We hold no ownership or positioning reading for this stock, so this section says that plainly.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

NICE Ltd.: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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