Novavax, Inc.

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Novavax, Inc. trades at $7.7, between stages. That is −9.5% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 26% of a 52-week range of $6 to $11. On relative strength it is currently behind the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view (4 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is between stages. At $7.7 it trades −9.5% versus its 200-day average and sits at 26% of its 52-week range ($6–$11).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.1 years the stock moved +12% while the S&P 500 moved +24% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (4 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-10) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

Novavax, Inc. trades at 3.2× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 14% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 3.7×, measured across 1.1 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 3.2× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 14% of the time, against a long-run median of 3.7× measured over 1.1 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

One caveat before moving on: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. If profitability mean-reverts, today's multiple is higher than it looks.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Novavax, Inc. reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 12 quarters across 1 curve, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

The return-on-capital curve is not shown — net worth is negative, so a return on capital is not a meaningful number in any basis. This is a distressed balance sheet, and the stage is read from the growth curves alone.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

4-Factor Sector Score

No sector-relative score — Novavax, Inc. is not among the largest members shown in this industry comparison for Biotechnology.

The score is a rank WITHIN a peer set: every metric is scored by percentile against the other members. Without the peer set there is no score to state, so none is invented here.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Novavax, Inc. reported $0.1 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −79.1% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at −0.7% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $1.1 B. The last four reported quarters add to $0.6 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $1.1 B (+64.7% on the year), capping 4 years at −0.7% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $0.1 B, −79.1% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −16.9% growth against the decade's −0.7% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −52.4% over the last 4 quarters against −22.2%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Novavax, Inc.'s operating margin is −14.3% in the Mar 26 quarter, −91.9 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −147.0% to 40.2%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is −14.3%, −91.9 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −147.0%–40.2%, and FY25's 40.2% is the top of that band — a record year.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −91.9 pp year on year while gross margin went −18.4 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Novavax, Inc. posted a net loss of $0.01 B in the Mar 26 quarter. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.4 B. That loss is 7.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.5 B. 7 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Mar 26 profit was $−0.0 B, −101.9% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.4 B (null).

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Novavax, Inc.'s cash-flow history is too thin to judge how much reported profit converts into cash. In FY25 that was $−0.2 B of operating cash against $0.4 B of profit. After $0.0 B of capital spending, $−0.3 B was left as free cash. Cash resolution here is annual, because quarterly cash statements are not published.

FY25: operating cash of $−0.2 B against reported profit of $0.4 B, leaving free cash of $−0.3 B after $0.0 B of capital spending.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Novavax, Inc. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $0.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 0.0% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $0.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

Novavax, Inc. earns a ROE of −339% in FY25. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −10.2 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 39.3% net margin on 0.95× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is −339%.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 39.3% net margin × 0.95× asset turns × −9.08× balance-sheet leverage ≈ −339.0% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 5.2% − 15.4% = a −10.2 pp spread. The 15.4% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Dividend

Novavax, Inc. pays no dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.

Novavax, Inc. does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Novavax, Inc.'s net worth is negative — it owes more than it owns — so a debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful here. On the annual view that ratio went from −1.29 in FY21 to −1.92 in FY25. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of $0.3 B against shareholder equity of $−0.1 B — a debt-to-equity of −2.14. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from −1.29 (FY21) to −1.92 (FY25). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

31.0% of Novavax, Inc.'s tradable float is currently sold short — a large bloc is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 10.0 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

The latest reading: 31.0% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 10.0 days to buy those positions back. A large bloc is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.

Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Novavax, Inc.: the Z-score reads −4.23. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits inside the distress zone. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

🚨 Why it matters: a Z-score of −4.23 is inside the distress zone — the balance sheet is a real risk, not a detail.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads −4.23.

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