Aya Gold & Silver Inc.

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. trades at $22.9, in a confirmed uptrend and 34 weeks into that stage. That is +39.5% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 100% of a 52-week range of $9 to $23. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 3 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 34 of stage 2. At $22.9 it trades +39.5% versus its 200-day average and sits at 100% of its 52-week range ($9–$23).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +4,480% while the S&P 500 moved +263% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 3 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. trades at 37.7× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 12% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 147.9×, measured across 3.6 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 37.7× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 12% of the time, against a long-run median of 147.9× measured over 3.6 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +55.0%/yr price move, ~+146.6%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−91.6 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — EPS growth swung from −440.0% at the trough to −100.0%, a 2-quarter improving streak, ROCE lifting at 33.7%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

77.0/100 — rank 1 of 8 in Silver · 61% evidence confidence

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. scores 77.0 out of 100 against the 8 companies it is compared with in Silver, ranking 1. Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 27.5 + 19.5 + 10 + 20 = 77. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. reported $0.1 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +300.0% year on year. That is the 5th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 60.7% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $0.2 B. The last four reported quarters add to $0.3 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $0.2 B (+400.0% on the year), capping 4 years at 60.7% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $0.1 B, +300.0% year on year — the 5th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +425.0% growth against the decade's 60.7% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +383.3% over the last 4 quarters against +169.3%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Aya Gold & Silver Inc.'s operating margin is 66.7% in the Mar 26 quarter, +66.7 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −100.0% to 33.3%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 66.7%, +66.7 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −100.0%–33.3%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +66.7 pp year on year while gross margin went +33.4 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. earned $0.1 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +400.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.1 B. That is 41.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.0 B. 1 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Mar 26 profit was $0.1 B, +400.0% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.1 B (null).

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 2 fiscal years 117% of Aya Gold & Silver Inc.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $0.1 B of operating cash against $0.1 B of profit. After $0.0 B of capital spending, $0.0 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $0.1 B against reported profit of $0.1 B, leaving free cash of $0.0 B after $0.0 B of capital spending. Across the last 2 fiscal years the conversion rate is 117% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $0.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 0.0% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $0.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. earns a ROE of 12% in FY25. That is up from a trough of −12% in FY24. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +8.1 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 25.0% net margin on 0.32× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is 12%, recovered from a FY24 trough of −12% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 25.0% net margin × 0.32× asset turns × 1.54× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 12.3% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 21.2% − 13.1% = a +8.1 pp spread. The 13.1% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every dollar reinvested creates more than a dollar of value — the engine compounds.

Dividend

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. pays no dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. carries total debt of $0.1 B against shareholder equity of $0.5 B as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.21 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.00 in FY21 to 0.27 in FY25. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of $0.1 B against shareholder equity of $0.5 B — a debt-to-equity of 0.21. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.00 (FY21) to 0.27 (FY25). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

No ownership or positioning reading is held for Aya Gold & Silver Inc., so this section names the gap rather than filling it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 15.8 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

We hold no ownership or positioning reading for this stock, so this section says that plainly.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Aya Gold & Silver Inc.: the Z-score reads 6.58. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 6.58 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 6.58.

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