Credo Brands Marketing Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Credo Brands Marketing Ltd trades at ₹81.5, in a downtrend and 51 weeks into that stage. That is −14.1% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 26% of a 52-week range of ₹69 to ₹118. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (3 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 51 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹81.5 it trades −14.1% versus its 200-day average and sits at 26% of its 52-week range (₹69–₹118).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 2.6 years the stock moved −72% while the NIFTY 500 moved +21% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (3 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-10) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Credo Brands Marketing Ltd trades at 7.7× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 23% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 10.8×, measured across 2.6 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 7.7× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 23% of the time, against a long-run median of 10.8× measured over 2.6 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +14.1% against a −38.3% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Topping out Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Credo Brands Marketing Ltd reads as topping out on its fundamental arc. Topping out — revenue and profit growth have decelerated hard (revenue growth +16.1% at its peak → −11.8% latest) while ROCE still reads 19.0%. The read is built from 9 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: decelerating from a peak is where good stories quietly end — the multiple usually notices late.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

50.9/100 — rank 14 of 26 in Textiles - Readymade Apparel · 63% evidence confidence

Credo Brands Marketing Ltd scores 50.9 out of 100 against the 26 companies it is compared with in Textiles - Readymade Apparel, ranking 14. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 13.5 + 17 + 12.6 + 7.8 = 50.9. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Credo Brands Marketing Ltd reported ₹164 Cr of revenue in the Sep 25 quarter, −11.8% year on year. Over 6 years it has compounded at 7.7% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at ₹618 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹593 Cr.

FY25 revenue came in at ₹618 Cr (+9.0% on the year), capping 6 years at 7.7% compound. The latest quarter (Sep 25) printed ₹164 Cr, −11.8% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +1.0% growth against the decade's 7.7% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +0.0% over the last 4 quarters against +4.1%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit −3.4% vs −14.5%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Credo Brands Marketing Ltd's operating margin is 29.0% in the Sep 25 quarter, −2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 9.0% to 33.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 29.0%, −2.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 9.0%–33.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +3.6 pp year on year while gross margin went −1.9 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Credo Brands Marketing Ltd earned ₹19.0 Cr of net profit in the Sep 25 quarter, −26.9% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹68.0 Cr. The 6-year compound rate is 26.0%. That is 11.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹26.0 Cr.

Sep 25 profit was ₹19.0 Cr, −26.9% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed ₹68.0 Cr (+15.3%), and the 6-year compound rate is 26.0%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed −11.8% and the margin −2.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +11.4% vs revenue +1.0%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 140% of Credo Brands Marketing Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was ₹159 Cr of operating cash against ₹68.0 Cr of profit. After ₹79.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹80.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of ₹159 Cr against reported profit of ₹68.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹80.0 Cr after ₹79.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 140% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 140%: the cash cycle stretched 60 days between FY20 and FY25 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 1.6× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Credo Brands Marketing Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 246 days in FY25, up from 186 days in FY20. Capital spending ran ₹296 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY25 sales of ₹618 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹1.7 Cr, so roughly ₹417 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY25: debtors at 141 days, inventory at 141 days — roughly 4.6 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 246 days, looser than FY20's 186.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 141 days to sell; customers pay about 141 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 35 days — netting out to the 246-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY25 sales of ₹618 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹1.7 Cr — so the 246-day loop keeps roughly ₹417 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹296 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹184 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹1.0 Cr (FY25) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Credo Brands Marketing Ltd earns a ROCE of 19% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 8% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −2.3 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 11.0% net margin on 0.80× asset turns.

FY25 ROCE is 19%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 8% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 11.0% net margin × 0.80× asset turns × 1.88× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 16.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 9.7% − 12.0% = a −2.3 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Credo Brands Marketing Ltd carries ₹237 Cr of borrowings against ₹410 Cr of equity in FY25, a debt-to-equity of 0.58. Operating profit covers the interest bill 7×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹43.0 Cr to ₹237 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹296 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY25: borrowings of ₹237 Cr against equity of ₹410 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.58. Operating profit covers the interest bill 7×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹43.0 Cr to ₹237 Cr while capital spending ran ₹296 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions cut 4.6 points of Credo Brands Marketing Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 3.0% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −1.4 points over the same window, to 0.5%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: −4.6 points over 8 quarters to 3.0%; Foreign institutions: −1.4 points over 8 quarters to 0.5%; Promoters: −0.2 points over 8 quarters to 55.0%.

🚨 Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (−4.6 points), alongside foreign institutions (−1.4 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Credo Brands Marketing Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Frequently asked questions