Rain Industries Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Rain Industries Ltd trades at ₹223, in a confirmed uptrend and 9 weeks into that stage. That is +38.1% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 98% of a 52-week range of ₹105 to ₹225. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 18 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 9 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹223 it trades +38.1% versus its 200-day average and sits at 98% of its 52-week range (₹105–₹225).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +643% while the NIFTY 500 moved +282% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 18 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Rain Industries Ltd trades at 24.9× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (96th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 8.5×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 24.9× is at the pricey end of its own range (96th percentile), against a long-run median of 8.5× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the −3.2%/yr price move, ~−14.4%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+11.2 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +20.4%/yr price move, ~+6.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+14.2 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 72% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Rain Industries Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 8 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

4-Factor Sector Score

62.5/100 — rank 5 of 26 in Cement · 64% evidence confidence

Rain Industries Ltd scores 62.5 out of 100 against the 26 companies it is compared with in Cement, ranking 5. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 22.9 + 9.4 + 10.2 + 20 = 62.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Rain Industries Ltd reported ₹4,521 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +20.0% year on year. That is the 5th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 5.2% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at ₹16,946 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹17,699 Cr.

FY25 revenue came in at ₹16,946 Cr (+10.2% on the year), capping 10 years at 5.2% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹4,521 Cr, +20.0% year on year — the 5th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +14.6% growth against the decade's 5.2% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +14.4% over the last 4 quarters against +3.4%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Rain Industries Ltd's operating margin is 15.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +5.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 5.0% to 20.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 15.0%, +5.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 5.0%–20.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +5.3 pp year on year while gross margin went +2.2 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Rain Industries Ltd earned ₹158 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹136 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is −7.7%. That is 3.5% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost ₹115 Cr. 7 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Mar 26 profit was ₹158 Cr, null year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed ₹136 Cr (null), and the 10-year compound rate is −7.7%.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 115% of Rain Industries Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was ₹897 Cr of operating cash against ₹136 Cr of profit. After ₹2,144 Cr of capital spending, ₹−1,247 Cr was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of ₹897 Cr against reported profit of ₹136 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−1,247 Cr after ₹2,144 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 115% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 115%: the cash cycle stretched 39 days between FY20 and FY25 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Rain Industries Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 134 days in FY25, up from 95 days in FY20. Capital spending ran ₹2,940 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY25 sales of ₹16,946 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹46.4 Cr, so roughly ₹6,221 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY25: debtors at 44 days, inventory at 137 days — roughly 4.5 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 134 days, looser than FY20's 95.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 137 days to sell; customers pay about 44 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 47 days — netting out to the 134-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY25 sales of ₹16,946 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹46.4 Cr — so the 134-day loop keeps roughly ₹6,221 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹2,940 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹2,505 Cr of depreciation — building somewhat ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹336 Cr (FY25) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Rain Industries Ltd earns a ROCE of 8% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 2% in FY23. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 0.8% net margin on 0.82× asset turns.

FY25 ROCE is 8%, recovered from a FY23 trough of 2% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 0.8% net margin × 0.82× asset turns × 2.79× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 1.8% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 72% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Rain Industries Ltd carries ₹9,824 Cr of borrowings against ₹7,449 Cr of equity in FY25, a debt-to-equity of 1.32. Operating profit covers the interest bill 2×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹8,859 Cr to ₹9,824 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹2,940 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY25: borrowings of ₹9,824 Cr against equity of ₹7,449 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 1.32. Operating profit covers the interest bill 2×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹8,859 Cr to ₹9,824 Cr while capital spending ran ₹2,940 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 72% on reported income across 15 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Rain Industries Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Promoters moved +0.2 points over the same window, to 41.4%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −0.4 points over 8 quarters to 8.0%; Promoters: +0.2 points over 8 quarters to 41.4%; Domestic institutions: +0.1 points over 8 quarters to 2.7%.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Rain Industries Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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