Ambuja Cements Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Ambuja Cements Ltd trades at ₹432, in a downtrend and 35 weeks into that stage. That is −9.2% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 13% of a 52-week range of ₹409 to ₹582. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (34 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 35 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹432 it trades −9.2% versus its 200-day average and sits at 13% of its 52-week range (₹409–₹582).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +115% while the NIFTY 500 moved +276% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (34 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-01-16) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Ambuja Cements Ltd trades at 22.8× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 26% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 27.8×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 22.8× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 26% of the time, against a long-run median of 27.8× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +9.5% against a −28.9% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +1.0%/yr price move, ~+2.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−1.9 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +4.8%/yr price move, ~+9.5%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−4.7 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

The PEG ratio and its quarterly curve, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 49% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Ambuja Cements Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — profit and EPS growth are shrinking while ROCE is still lifting at 17.0% — falling growth against firm returns, so no single stage word fits yet. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

38.9/100 — rank 21 of 26 in Cement · 82% evidence confidence

Ambuja Cements Ltd scores 38.9 out of 100 against the 26 companies it is compared with in Cement, ranking 21. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 9.4 + 11 + 12.6 + 5.9 = 38.9. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Ambuja Cements Ltd reported ₹9,500 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, −7.7% year on year. Over 11 years it has compounded at 14.2% a year. The last full year, Mar 26, came in at ₹40,656 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹39,867 Cr.

Mar 26 revenue came in at ₹40,656 Cr (+15.1% on the year), capping 11 years at 14.2% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹9,500 Cr, −7.7% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +8.1% growth against the decade's 14.2% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +7.1% over the last 4 quarters against +10.2%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit −5.9% vs +9.2%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Ambuja Cements Ltd's operating margin is 17.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, −2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 13.0% to 21.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 17.0%, −2.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 13.0%–21.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −2.3 pp year on year while gross margin went −0.5 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Ambuja Cements Ltd earned ₹660 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −36.6% year on year. Full-year Mar 26 profit was ₹5,637 Cr. The 11-year compound rate is 19.3%. That is 6.9% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹1,041 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹660 Cr, −36.6% year on year. On the full year, Mar 26 printed ₹5,637 Cr (+6.5%), and the 11-year compound rate is 19.3%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed −7.7% and the margin −2.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +70.0% vs revenue +8.1%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 85% of Ambuja Cements Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In Mar 26 that was ₹5,362 Cr of operating cash against ₹5,637 Cr of profit. After ₹18,330 Cr of capital spending, ₹−12,968 Cr was left as free cash.

Mar 26: operating cash of ₹5,362 Cr against reported profit of ₹5,637 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−12,968 Cr after ₹18,330 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 85% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 85%: the cash cycle stretched 95 days between FY20 and Mar 26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 6.5× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Ambuja Cements Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 37 days in Mar 26, up from −58 days in FY20. Capital spending ran ₹48,802 Cr over the last 3 years. At Mar 26 sales of ₹40,656 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹111 Cr, so roughly ₹4,121 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

Mar 26: debtors at 17 days, inventory at 246 days — roughly 8.1 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 37 days, looser than FY20's −58.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 246 days to sell; customers pay about 17 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 227 days — netting out to the 37-day cycle.

In money terms: at Mar 26 sales of ₹40,656 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹111 Cr — so the 37-day loop keeps roughly ₹4,121 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹48,802 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹7,495 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹9,121 Cr (Mar 26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Ambuja Cements Ltd earns a ROCE of 6% in Mar 26. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 13.9% net margin on 0.45× asset turns.

Mar 26 ROCE is 6%.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (Mar 26): 13.9% net margin × 0.45× asset turns × 1.51× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 9.4% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 49% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Ambuja Cements Ltd carries ₹866 Cr of borrowings against ₹59,347 Cr of equity in Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.01. Operating profit covers the interest bill 29×. Over 6 years borrowings went from ₹471 Cr to ₹866 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹48,802 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

Mar 26: borrowings of ₹866 Cr against equity of ₹59,347 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.01. Operating profit covers the interest bill 29×. Over 6 years borrowings went from ₹471 Cr to ₹866 Cr while capital spending ran ₹48,802 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 49% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 5.0 points of Ambuja Cements Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 5.6% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +4.5 points over the same window, to 19.4%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −5.0 points over 8 quarters to 5.6%; Domestic institutions: +4.5 points over 8 quarters to 19.4%; Promoters: −0.2 points over 8 quarters to 67.3%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −5.0 points against domestic institutions +4.5 points over 8 quarters, with promoters holding steady — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Ambuja Cements Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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