Lupin Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Lupin Ltd trades at ₹2,092, in a confirmed uptrend and 42 weeks into that stage. That is −6.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 13% of a 52-week range of ₹2,029 to ₹2,496. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (8 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 42 of stage 2. At ₹2,092 it trades −6.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 13% of its 52-week range (₹2,029–₹2,496).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.6 years the stock moved +21% while the NIFTY 500 moved +268% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (8 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-31) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Lupin Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 22 August 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: MID_EXPANSION_WITH_PEAK_MARGIN_RISK. Still open: A sustained operating margin below management's FY27 framework after Tolvaptan competition, without a measurable launch offset from Pegfilgrastim or other complex products, would break the thesis.

Our read, 22 August 2026. Lupin combines broad geographic growth with a pipeline rebuild, but the low trailing multiple is not value unless peak margins survive the US competition reset.

From the numbers. The current PE snapshot is far below its median, but the normalized valuation reading is less favourable because operating margin is above its through-cycle estimate. The operating cycle remains in expansion rather than…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 42 — below its 200-day line, relative strength falling.

From the research. Lupin combines broad geographic growth with a pipeline rebuild, but the low trailing multiple is not value unless peak margins survive the US competition reset.

🚨 Where they disagree. The current PE snapshot is far below its median, but the normalized valuation reading is less favourable because operating margin is above its through-cycle estimate. The operating cycle remains in expansion rather than a confirmed trough. The low multiple is therefore an opportunity only if product-mix and launch execution prevent margin mean reversion.

What is proven. Lupin combines broad geographic growth with a pipeline rebuild, but the low trailing multiple is not value unless peak margins survive the US competition reset.

What is not proven yet. A sustained operating margin below management's FY27 framework after Tolvaptan competition, without a measurable launch offset from Pegfilgrastim or other complex products, would break the thesis.

🚨 What would change our mind. A sustained operating margin below management's FY27 framework after Tolvaptan competition, without a measurable launch offset from Pegfilgrastim or other complex products, would break the thesis.

🚨 CIO read, 22 August 2026 — EXIT. EXIT (system_dma) · forward-asymmetry 68/100 · CONTESTED. The rating is at the 3rd percentile of its own history and the re-rating leg is intact. Management still guides high-single-digit FY27 revenue growth and about 25% EBITDA margin, although US competition and delayed launches cap judged EPS growth at 13%; that clears the model's 9.1% requirement by 3.9 points.

The test written in advance. A sustained operating margin below management's FY27 framework after Tolvaptan competition, without a measurable launch offset from Pegfilgrastim or other complex products, would break the thesis. — the thesis as written as stated by the next result.

The test written in advance. US competition and product erosion — US competition and product erosion US quarterly revenue declines by more than the management framework after competitive entry. by the next result.

The test written in advance. Peak-margin valuation trap — Peak-margin valuation trap Operating margin moves below the management framework while US competition accelerates. by the next result.

What the company does. The latest quarter extended revenue growth while reported profit grew more slowly because tax rose and operating margin eased from the preceding peak. The stock screens inexpensive on trailing earnings, yet normalized earnings convert that reading into a mid-range valuation because current margins sit above their through-cycle level. The investable outcome depends on whether new launches, Brazil-led emerging markets and Europe offset Tolvaptan and Mirabegron pressure without a further margin reset.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: A 30% operating margin reads as sustained high profitability. The research reads it further: The normalized analysis places current operating margin above the through-cycle estimate, while management cites competition, development spending and cost inflation as prospective pressures.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: A trailing PE near the bottom of history reads as cheap. The research reads it further: Trailing EPS benefits from an operating margin above the normalized level, so normalized EPS is lower and normalized PE is materially higher.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. Brazil-led emerging markets and other developed markets broaden growth beyond the US portfolio. What proves it keeps working: International growth diversification. It stops working if Brazil's metabolic launches fail to sustain growth or VISUfarma does not convert its new distribution footprint into sales.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. Respiratory, injectables, biosimilars and 505(b)(2) programs are intended to replace fading US exclusivity economics. What proves it keeps working: Complex-product pipeline. It stops working if Regulatory remediation delays approvals or launch dates move beyond the period in which Tolvaptan revenue is falling.

Lever 3 · Management change — BUILDING. Chronic mix, diabetes launches and prescription growth provide a domestic counterweight to US volatility. What proves it keeps working: India chronic and metabolic franchise. It stops working if Core prescription growth falls below the market after new-product launches and the chronic mix ceases rising.

Lever 4 · Paying down debt — BUILDING. Operating cash generation and free cash flow can fund pipeline investment without relying on equity issuance. What proves it keeps working: Cash-funded reinvestment. It stops working if Operating cash flow falls below profit while payable days reverse or development spending rises without launch conversion.

Sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Lupin Ltd reported ₹8,277 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +32.1% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 7.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹27,958 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹29,968 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹27,958 Cr (+23.1% on the year), capping 10 years at 7.0% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹8,277 Cr, +32.1% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +28.1% growth against the decade's 7.0% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +28.2% over the last 4 quarters against +20.0%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +49.2% vs +55.8%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Lupin Ltd's operating margin is 30.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 1.3% to 29.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

Why this happened. Emerging-markets sales rose on Brazil, South Africa and the Philippines, while Europe benefited from VISUfarma consolidation. This reduces dependence on a single US exclusivity product, but these businesses must keep converting launches into recurring revenue.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 30.0%, +2.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 1.3%–29.0%, and FY26's 29.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +2.0 pp year on year while gross margin went +3.0 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Lupin Ltd earned ₹1,417 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +16.1% year on year. It is the 12th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹5,355 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 9.0%. That is 17.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹1,221 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹1,417 Cr, +16.1% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹5,355 Cr (+62.0%), and the 10-year compound rate is 9.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +32.1% and the margin +2.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +53.6% vs revenue +28.1%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 132% of Lupin Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹7,334 Cr of operating cash against ₹5,355 Cr of profit. After ₹3,150 Cr of capital spending, ₹4,184 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹7,334 Cr against reported profit of ₹5,355 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹4,184 Cr after ₹3,150 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 132% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 132%: the cash cycle tightened 68 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 1.6× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Lupin Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 181 days in FY26, down from 249 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹6,159 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹27,958 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹76.6 Cr, so roughly ₹13,864 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 86 days, inventory at 303 days — roughly 10.0 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 181 days, tighter than FY21's 249.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 303 days to sell; customers pay about 86 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 208 days — netting out to the 181-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹27,958 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹76.6 Cr — so the 181-day loop keeps roughly ₹13,864 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹6,159 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹3,742 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹1,016 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Lupin Ltd earns a ROCE of 30% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −7% in FY22. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +14.3 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 19.2% net margin on 0.73× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 30%, recovered from a FY22 trough of −7% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 19.2% net margin × 0.73× asset turns × 1.70× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 23.8% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 26.3% − 12.0% = a +14.3 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every rupee reinvested creates more than a rupee of value — the engine compounds.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Lupin Ltd carries total debt of ₹6,616 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹22,513 Cr as of Jun 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.29 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.34 in FY22 to 0.29 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Why this happened. The multi-year cash record supports reinvestment, though payable-led cash-cycle improvement means cash quality should be monitored alongside reported profit.

Jun 26: total debt of ₹6,616 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹22,513 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.29. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.34 (FY22) to 0.29 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions added 3.1 points of Lupin Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 22.4% of the company. Domestic institutions moved −2.1 points over the same window, to 24.6%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

Why this happened. India sales grew faster than the India pharmaceutical market in the latest quarter, led by diabetes and a higher chronic mix. The chronic-therapy annuity premium applies if launch-led growth remains durable rather than being confined to an initial product burst.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: +3.1 points over 8 quarters to 22.4%; Domestic institutions: −2.1 points over 8 quarters to 24.6%; Promoters: −0.1 points over 8 quarters to 46.9%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions +3.1 points against domestic institutions −2.1 points over 8 quarters, with promoters holding steady — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Lupin Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Lupin Ltd trades at 16.1× P/E, about the cheapest it has ever traded. Its long-run median P/E is 28.4×, measured across 10.6 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 16.1× is about the cheapest it has ever traded, against a long-run median of 28.4× measured over 10.6 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

One caveat before moving on: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. If profitability mean-reverts, today's multiple is higher than it looks.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +62.3% against a +9.0% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +17.7%/yr price move, ~+28.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−11.2 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +3.5%/yr price move, ~+8.6%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−5.1 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 24 August 2026 price, Lupin Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 9.1% a year. Profit itself has compounded 9.0% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 16.1× P/E, the 1st percentile of its own 11-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is low against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is close to what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 24 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 25 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Lupin Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: profit growth has eased from +1746.6% at its peak to +49.2% but is still expanding, ROCE lifting at 34.5%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

4-Factor Sector Score

68.6/100 — rank 2 of 19 in Pharma - Formulators · 93% evidence confidence

Lupin Ltd scores 68.6 out of 100 against the 19 companies it is compared with in Pharma - Formulators, ranking 2. Acceleration candidate, not a confirmed leader: earnings are strong but sector-relative strength is -10.3% and the one-year return is 1.8%. Do not upgrade until sector-relative strength is above zero and another reported period confirms growth.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 30.4 + 19.2 + 15.9 + 3.1 = 68.6. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Lupin Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

FY27 Tax Rate Guidance Raised · 7 August 2026. In May 2026, management guided to a 25%-26% FY27 effective tax rate and explicitly cited the phase-out of incentives. In August 2026, management raised the range to 27%-28% without explaining what changed, creating a material adverse revision to earnings expectations.

🚨 Dulera Launch Timing Becomes Conditional · 7 August 2026. In May 2026, management expected Dulera to be in the market in FY28. In August 2026, FY28 became only a possibility and FY29 was introduced as the fallback, with no explanation for the timeline slippage.

Pegfilgrastim Launch Delayed Versus Earlier Commitment · 7 August 2026. In February 2026, management expected Pegfilgrastim to launch before the end of the then-current quarter. In August 2026, management stated that it had yet to launch and moved the expected launch to H2 FY27, a material timeline delay with no explanation in the latest call.

India Growth Target Discrepancy · 13 February 2026. Management continues to reiterate a strategic target of outperforming the India Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) by 1.2 to 1.3 times, yet performance has materially slowed to near-parity with the market. While the November 2025 call reported first-half prescription growth at 1.1 times the IPM, the February 2026 call revealed that the nine-month cumulative growth has dropped to 9.4% against an IPM growth of 9.3%. Earlier call (Nov 2025): “We remain confident that our India formulations business will continue to outperform the IPM by 1.2 to 1.3 times as we have stated in the past... the core prescription business grew by 8.8% YoY during Q2FY26, and 8.7% in H1, handsomely outperforming the IPM growth by 1.2x and 1.1x, respectively.” Later call (Feb 2026): “We remain confident that our India formulation business will continue to outperform IPM by 1.2 to 1.3 times... For the nine-month period, our prescription business has grown 9.4% against IPM growth of 9.3%.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions