ZF Commercial Vehicle Control System India Ltd (ZFCVINDIA) — share price & stock analysis

Market cap

₹28,288 Cr

P/E

54.1×

ROE

15.2%

vs own 10-yr valuation

17th pctile

Book value / share

₹324

EPS (TTM)

₹46.0

10-yr median P/E

68.6×

Revenue (FY26)

₹4,119 Cr

Profit after tax (FY26)

₹517 Cr

Weinstein stage

Stage 2 (29 weeks)

Data as of

1 July 2026

4 of the 6 things we track are currently moving the right way — most of the dashboard is turning up.

Where the levels actually stand: ROCE 20% — a high-quality engine; effectively no debt; margins near the top of their band. Momentum says which way things are moving; these say where they are.

Read this number for what it is: it measures the DIRECTION of change, not the quality of the business. A mediocre business getting better scores high here; a great one having a soft quarter scores low. Profit, sales and margins count double.

The price is tracking the earnings — no froth, no gift

Since Mar 2016, the stock is down 60% and earnings per share are down 57% — the price has tracked the profits, not run ahead of them.pricettm_eps

The market is paying for delivery, not promises. What you see in earnings is what you get in the price.

Today’s P/E of 54.1× sits near the bottom of its own range — it has been cheaper than this only 17% of the time against its own 10-year history.pe_ratio

Price is the weekly close (₹). EPS is trailing-twelve-month profit per share, anchored on Screener's own snapshots; between snapshots it is filled from price ÷ P/E (an exact identity), and any fill straying more than 18% from the neighbouring snapshots is dropped rather than shown. The lower panel is the P/E — what the market pays per rupee of profit; the dotted line is its long-run median (68.6×).

An uptrend that has held for 29 weeks

Every stock cycles through the same four seasons — a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Right now this one is in Stage 2: advancing, 29 weeks in, confirmed.stage

The price sits above its rising 200-day average (₹2,389 today) — trends like this persist more often than they reverse, which is why the system rides them instead of guessing the top.dma_200

Beating NIFTY 500 for 36 weeks — relative strength is the market’s live opinion, and right now it is on this stock’s side.rs_mansfield

What would end it: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the house exit rule — mechanical, no debates.dma_200

10 of the last 12 years ended with profits higher — quiet, steady compounding

Over 12 years, sales went from ₹1,110 Cr to ₹4,119 Cr (about 12% a year), and profit from ₹117 Cr to ₹517 Cr.revenuenet_profit

Margins took a round trip — down to 9.9% in FY22, back to 15.9% now. The profit growth survived the squeeze.operating_profit

Sales grew 14% last quarter — the 6th straight quarter of growth

Mar 26 sales were ₹1,155 Cr, up 14% on the same quarter last year.revenue

That makes 6 quarters of growth in a row — this is a trend, not a blip.revenue

Margins have been rebuilt — 9.9% in FY22 to 15.9% now

Of every ₹100 of sales, the company keeps ₹16.4 as operating profit (a year ago it kept ₹17.3).opm_pct

Zoom out and this is the page's quiet hero: annual operating margin bottomed at 9.9% in FY22 and has been rebuilt to 15.9% — that recovery, not sales alone, is what powers the profit growth elsewhere on this page.operating_profit

Profit grew 15% last quarter

Mar 26 profit after tax was ₹146 Cr, up 15% year on year.net_profit

A caution: a meaningful slice of this jump came from income outside the core business — that is lower-quality profit and may not repeat.other_income

The profits are real — they turn into cash

Over the last 5 profitable years, the business reported ₹1,844 Cr of profit and collected ₹1,725 Cr of operating cash — about 94% conversion.operating_cash_flownet_profit

When cash tracks profit this closely, the earnings need no asterisk.

The cash cycle is tightening — money comes home faster

One rupee now takes about 56 days to go out the door as materials and come back as collected cash — down from 80 days the year before.cash_conversion_cycle

The biggest mover: customers paying faster (107 → 83 days).debtor_days

The asset base keeps compounding — this company builds

The productive asset base has gone from ₹306 Cr (FY14) to ₹732 Cr, with another ₹61.0 Cr of capacity under construction right now.fixed_assetscwip

The build is self-funded: the last 3 years' investing outflow (₹1,065 Cr) fits inside the operating cash the business generated (₹1,289 Cr).investing_cash_flowoperating_cash_flow

Almost no debt — this company cannot be killed by a bad year

For every ₹100 shareholders have put in (and left in), the company has borrowed ₹1 — total borrowings have grown from ₹0.0 Cr to ₹55.0 Cr over the window.borrowings

Every ₹100 kept in the business earns ₹20 — a high-quality engine

Return on capital employed is 20.0% (a year ago: 20.0%). This is the single best test of business quality: what the company earns on the money it keeps.roce_pct

Promoters have trimmed their stake — 7.5 points over 8 quarters

Promoters hold 60.0% (down 7.5 points over 8 quarters). Foreign funds own 5.8%, domestic funds 26.2%.promoters_pctfiis_pctdiis_pct

A falling promoter stake is a red flag until explained — it can be a fund-raise or an exit; the difference matters.promoters_pct

The numbers earn a deeper study — and watch the one thing that matters

The numbers lean positive, and the price is roughly fair to the delivery so far.

Best thing in the data: cash generation rising (₹286 Cr → ₹810 Cr).operating_cash_flow

Biggest worry: promoter holding falling (63.2% → 60.0%).promoters_pct

One dissent worth hearing: our growth at a price lens reads negative — “Growth & Value: 6/20 (non-financial). PEG 4.45 (PE 54.1 / TTM 12.2%) → 0/6. Moderate Grower (PAT YoY 15.0%, MCap ₹28K Cr) → 1/4. GARP: ROCE 20.3%, PAT growth 15”. When a lens disagrees with the committee, it is usually pointing at the thing that breaks first.

Machine-written research from Screener data — every number traces to its source column. Sector Alpha is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell. Not investment advice.

Straight answers from the data