Sector Alpha Week of 2026-09-11
Not SEBI Registered !! Not Investment advice !!
Sector Alpha — machine-written from the numbers · Data as of 2026-09-11

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd

RVNL
Infra - Construction & Contracting

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's stock has fallen further than its earnings. EPS fell 31.5% in a year while the price moved −39.4%.

Biggest watch item: the P/E sits at the 68th percentile of its own range — the multiple has already done part of the work.

The price is in a downtrend (58 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 68th percentile of its own 7-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read improving — profit +19.4% year on year, and 80% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: the next one or two quarters of delivery.

Stage
Deteriorating
fundamental trajectory, 12 quarters
Price
₹205
−39.4% 1Y
P/E
47.5×
68th pctile
of its own 7-year range
Revenue (Jun 26)
₹4,321 Cr
+10.5% YoY
Profit (Jun 26)
₹160 Cr
+19.4% YoY
Operating margin
4.3%
+2.9 pp YoY
ROCE
11%
FY26
ROIC
4.5%
vs WACC 12.0% → −7.5 pp
Cash conversion
80%
of profit, last 3 FY
01 · Price story

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd trades at ₹205, in a downtrend and 58 weeks into that stage. That is −23.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 0% of a 52-week range of ₹205 to ₹388. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (31 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 58 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹205 it trades −23.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 0% of its 52-week range (₹205–₹388).

Sep 26: ₹205 Weekly closing price (₹) with 50- and 200-day averages; shaded bands mark the price stage (grey base, green advance, amber top, red decline). 3-year window.
−23.8% versus the 200-day line, week 58 of stage 4
Price50-day avg200-day avg
S2S4S4₹669₹516₹363₹211₹57.9₹205₹269Sep 23Jun 24Mar 25Dec 25Sep 26
S2S4S4₹669₹516₹363₹211₹57.9₹205₹269Sep 23Mar 25Sep 26
Beating or trailing, week by week since 2019 Each cell is one week from 2019 to now (391 weeks): the stock's trailing 13-week return minus the NIFTY 500's, green ahead / red behind (±25% ramp). Grey cells are the 13-week warm-up or weeks where the NIFTY 500 reading is not held.
trailing 13-week return vs the NIFTY 500
Apr 19Sep 26

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 7.4 years the stock moved +937% while the NIFTY 500 moved +134% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (31 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-02-27) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

02 · Valuation

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd trades at 47.5× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (68th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 10.3×, measured across 7.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 47.5× is mid-range by its own standards (68th percentile), against a long-run median of 10.3× measured over 7.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

P/E 47.5× vs a 10.3× long-run median P/E, weekly (left axis); earnings per share, trailing twelve months, weekly (right axis). 7.4-year window; loss-period spikes above 31× shown pinned at the top. The eps (ttm) bars are red where the reading is lower than the quarter before.
mid-range by its own standards (68th percentile)
P/EMedianEPS (TTM) (quarterly)
33.1×₹8.225.2×₹6.117.4×₹4.19.6×₹2.01.7×₹0.0×30.90×₹4Apr 19Feb 21Jan 23Nov 24Sep 26
33.1×₹8.225.2×₹6.117.4×₹4.19.6×₹2.01.7×₹0.0×30.90×₹4Apr 19Jan 23Sep 26
P/E
47.5×
68th percentile of 7y
PEG
n/m
not derivable — 3-year earnings growth unavailable

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −31.5% against a −39.4% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +46.4%/yr price move, ~−3.6%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+50.0 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

03 · What the price assumes

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 13 June 2026 price, Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 29.5% a year. Profit itself has compounded 7.3% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 47.5× P/E, the 68th percentile of its own 7-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is far above what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 13 June 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

04 · Stage: Deteriorating

Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — profit and EPS growth are shrinking (profit growth −24.5% latest against +15.6% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE slipping at 10.8%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Growth, year by year: revenue +2.5% in FY26, profit −31.8% Year-over-year growth per fiscal year, %: revenue (left axis); net profit and EPS (right axis — profit growth swings far wider). Zero line drawn.
Revenue YoYProfit YoYEPS YoY
49%36%33%18%18%0.0%2.3%−19%−13%−37%%%2.5%−31.8%FY16FY21FY26
49%36%33%18%18%0.0%2.3%−19%−13%−37%%%2.5%−31.8%FY16FY21FY26
Three growth curves, twelve quarters Year-on-year growth of trailing-twelve-month revenue (left axis), profit and EPS (right axis — they swing far wider), % at each quarter-end. A missing point means that reading is not held for the quarter.
the trajectory the stage is read from · revenue accelerating, profit stabilising
RevenueProfitEPS
9.3%19%4.4%5.6%−0.5%−8.1%−5.5%−22%−10%−36%%%5.4%−24.5%−24.4%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
9.3%19%4.4%5.6%−0.5%−8.1%−5.5%−22%−10%−36%%%5.4%−24.5%−24.4%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
ROCE Trailing-twelve-month operating profit (before interest and tax) as a share of average capital employed — total assets minus current liabilities, the standard textbook basis, %.
the return curve, computed quarterly
ROCE
19%17%15%12%10%%10.8%Sep 23Mar 24Dec 24Sep 25Jun 26
19%17%15%12%10%%10.8%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
Revenue growth
Flat
latest +5.4% · span −9.0% to +7.9%
Profit growth
Falling
latest −24.5% · span −31.8% to +15.6%
EPS growth
Falling
latest −24.4% · span −31.4% to +15.4%
ROCE
Falling
latest 10.8% · span 10.8%–18.2%

🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.

Compound annual growth rate (%) Compound annual growth rate over each window, %. Revenue, profit and EPS from fiscal-year figures; share price is the price CAGR over the same spans. A dash = that window is not held, or the base was a loss.
1yr3yr5yr10yr
Revenue+2.5%+0.2%+5.8%+16.2%
Profit−31.8%−13.4%−2.6%+7.3%
EPS−31.5%−13.3%−2.5%+7.4%
Share price−39.4%+8.0%+46.4%
Revenue YoY (Jun 26)
+10.5%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Profit YoY (Jun 26)
+19.4%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Revenue 10y
16.2%
long-run compound pace
05 · 4-Factor Sector Score

4-Factor Sector Score

38.7/100 — rank 16 of 18 in Infra - Construction & Contracting · 87% evidence confidence

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd scores 38.7 out of 100 against the 18 companies it is compared with in Infra - Construction & Contracting, ranking 16. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 16.1 + 7 + 4.5 + 11.1 = 38.7. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

06 · Revenue

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd reported ₹4,321 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +10.5% year on year. That is the 4th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 16.2% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹20,412 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹20,824 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹20,412 Cr (+2.5% on the year), capping 10 years at 16.2% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹4,321 Cr, +10.5% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

FY26 revenue ₹20,412 Cr (+2.5% YoY) Revenue bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 11-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
16.2% a year over 10 years
RevenueYoY growth
23.6k49%17.7k33%11.8k18%5.9k2.3%0−13%₹ Cr%₹20,4122.5%FY16FY21FY26
23.6k49%17.7k33%11.8k18%5.9k2.3%0−13%₹ Cr%₹20,4122.5%FY16FY21FY26
Jun 26: ₹4,321 Cr (+10.5% YoY) Quarterly revenue bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
4th straight quarter of growth
Revenue (quarterly)YoY growth
7.3k21%5.4k8.1%3.6k−4.8%1.8k−18%0−30%₹ Cr%₹4,32110.5%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
7.3k21%5.4k8.1%3.6k−4.8%1.8k−18%0−30%₹ Cr%₹4,32110.5%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +5.7% growth against the decade's 16.2% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +5.4% over the last 4 quarters against +1.1%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit −24.5% vs −21.5%/yr — stabilising.

07 · Operating margin

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's operating margin is 4.3% in the Jun 26 quarter, +2.9 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 3.8% to 6.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 4.3%, +2.9 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 3.8%–6.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +2.9 pp year on year while gross margin went −1.5 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

FY26: 3.8% Operating margin by fiscal year, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). 12-year window.
within a 3.8–6.0% band over 12 years
operating marginYoY change (pp)
6.2%1.4%5.5%0.4%4.9%−0.6%4.3%−1.5%3.6%−2.5%%%3.8%−2.2%FY15FY20FY26
6.2%1.4%5.5%0.4%4.9%−0.6%4.3%−1.5%3.6%−2.5%%%3.8%−2.2%FY15FY20FY26
Jun 26: 4.3% operating margin (+2.9 pp YoY) Quarterly operating margin, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). Last 12 quarters. Operating profit as a share of revenue, per quarter.
Operating marginYoY change (pp)
7.4%3.4%5.8%1.6%4.2%−0.1%2.6%−1.8%1.0%−3.6%%%4.3%2.9%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
7.4%3.4%5.8%1.6%4.2%−0.1%2.6%−1.8%1.0%−3.6%%%4.3%2.9%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
08 · Net profit

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd earned ₹160 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +19.4% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹871 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 7.3%. That is 3.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹134 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹160 Cr, +19.4% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹871 Cr (−31.8%), and the 10-year compound rate is 7.3%.

FY26 profit ₹871 Cr (−31.8% YoY) Net profit bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 11-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
7.3% a year over 10 years
Net profitYoY growth
1.7k36%1.3k18%8380.0%419−19%0−37%₹ Cr%₹871−31.8%FY16FY21FY26
1.7k36%1.3k18%8380.0%419−19%0−37%₹ Cr%₹871−31.8%FY16FY21FY26
Jun 26: ₹160 Cr (+19.4% YoY) Quarterly net profit bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
Net profit (quarterly)YoY growth
51641%38714%258−13%129−40%0−67%₹ Cr%₹16019.4%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
51641%38714%258−13%129−40%0−67%₹ Cr%₹16019.4%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +10.5% and the margin +2.9 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −14.1% vs revenue +5.7%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

09 · Cash flow — the router

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 80% of Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹−1,889 Cr of operating cash against ₹871 Cr of profit. After ₹34.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹−1,923 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹−1,889 Cr against reported profit of ₹871 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−1,923 Cr after ₹34.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 80% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

FY26: CFO ₹−1,889 Cr vs profit ₹871 Cr Operating cash flow and net profit by fiscal year, ₹ Cr; the line is free cash flow (CFO minus capital spending). 11-year window, annual resolution.
80% of 3-year profit arrived as cash
Operating cashNet profitFree cash
5.5k2.9k365−2.2k−4.8k₹ Cr₹−1,889₹871₹−1,923FY16FY21FY26
5.5k2.9k365−2.2k−4.8k₹ Cr₹−1,889₹871₹−1,923FY16FY21FY26
FY26: CFO = −217% of profit (three-year rate 80%) Operating cash as a share of net profit, per fiscal year, % (line). Dashed line = 100% — every unit of profit arriving as cash; outlier years shown pinned.
Conversion100%
348%173%0.0%−176%−351%%−217%FY16FY21FY26
348%173%0.0%−176%−351%%−217%FY16FY21FY26

Why conversion sits at 80%: the cash cycle stretched 73 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 8.6× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

10 · Where the cash goes

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 96 days in FY26, up from 23 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹757 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹20,412 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹55.9 Cr, so roughly ₹5,369 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 96 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 96 days, looser than FY21's 23.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹20,412 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹55.9 Cr — so the 96-day loop keeps roughly ₹5,369 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

FY26: a 96-day cash cycle Debtor days, inventory days, payable days and the cash conversion cycle by fiscal year. 12-year window.
+73 days vs FY21
Cash cycleDebtor days
10279573411days96d96dFY15FY17FY20FY23FY26
10279573411days96d96dFY15FY20FY26

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹757 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹88.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

FY26: capex ₹34.0 Cr, work-in-progress ₹0.0 Cr Capital spending per fiscal year, ₹ Cr (bars); capital work-in-progress, ₹ Cr (line). Quarterly capital-spending history is not held for India — annual is the honest resolution.
a build-out
CapexWork-in-progress
645471297123−51₹ Cr₹34₹0FY16FY18FY21FY23FY26
645471297123−51₹ Cr₹34₹0FY16FY21FY26

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

11 · Return on capital

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd earns a ROCE of 11% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 7% in FY16. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −7.5 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 4.3% net margin on 0.94× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 11%, recovered from a FY16 trough of 7% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 4.3% net margin × 0.94× asset turns × 2.21× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 8.9% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 4.5% − 12.0% = a −7.5 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

FY26: ROCE 11% Return on capital employed by fiscal year, % (line); ROIC by fiscal year, % (line). 11-year window, dips included. Dashed line = the 12.0% cost of capital used on this page.
the climb back from FY16's 7%
ROCEROIC (annual)WACC
19%15%11%7.2%3.2%%11%4.3%FY16FY21FY26
19%15%11%7.2%3.2%%11%4.3%FY16FY21FY26
Q4 FY26: ROCE 5.0% (TTM) vs WACC 12.0% Trailing-twelve-month ROCE and ROIC, per quarter, %; dashed line = the cost of capital. Last 12 quarters, put on a trailing-twelve-month basis and anchored to the annual figure.
ROCE (TTM)ROIC (TTM)WACC
13%11%8.5%6.5%4.4%%5%6.4%Q1 FY24Q2 FY25Q4 FY26
13%11%8.5%6.5%4.4%%5%6.4%Q1 FY24Q2 FY25Q4 FY26
12 · Debt

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd carries total debt of ₹4,818 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹9,818 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.49. On the annual view that ratio went from 1.05 in FY22 to 0.49 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹4,818 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹9,818 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.49. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 1.05 (FY22) to 0.49 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

FY26: debt ₹4,818 Cr at 0.49× equity Total debt by fiscal year, ₹ Cr (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). 5-year window.
Total debtDebt-to-equity
7.2k1.1×5.4k0.9×3.6k0.8×1.8k0.6×00.4×₹ Cr×₹4,8180.49×FY22FY24FY26
7.2k1.1×5.4k0.9×3.6k0.8×1.8k0.6×00.4×₹ Cr×₹4,8180.49×FY22FY24FY26
Mar 26: debt ₹4,818 Cr, debt-to-equity 0.49 Total debt per quarter, ₹ Cr (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). Last 12 quarters. India reports the full balance sheet half-yearly, so the intervening quarter carries the prior reading forward.
Total debt (quarterly)Debt-to-equity
7.0k0.9×5.2k0.8×3.5k0.7×1.7k0.6×00.5×₹ Cr×₹4,8180.49×Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
7.0k0.9×5.2k0.8×3.5k0.7×1.7k0.6×00.5×₹ Cr×₹4,8180.49×Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
13 · Ownership

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Domestic institutions moved −0.2 points over the same window, to 6.6%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −0.7 points over 8 quarters to 2.4%; Domestic institutions: −0.2 points over 8 quarters to 6.6%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 72.8%.

Fiscal-year ends: promoters +0.0 pts from Mar 24 to Mar 26 Shareholding at each fiscal-year end (March quarter), % of the company. 3 year-ends held.
PromotersForeign inst.Domestic inst.Public
78%58%38%17%−3.3%%72.8%4.9%6.4%15.9%Mar 24Mar 25Mar 26
78%58%38%17%−3.3%%72.8%4.9%6.4%15.9%Mar 24Mar 25Mar 26
A quiet register: no holder moved a full point in two years Shareholding by holder class, % of the company, quarterly, last 13 quarters.
PromotersForeign inst.Domestic inst.Public
84%62%40%18%−4.4%%72.8%2.4%6.6%18.1%Jun 23Dec 24Jun 26
84%62%40%18%−4.4%%72.8%2.4%6.6%18.1%Jun 23Dec 24Jun 26
14 · Safety line

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

15 · Related companies · Infra - Construction & Contracting
CompanyScorePrice stageGrowth & earnings/35Capital efficiency/25Valuation/20Relative strength/20
1Cemindia Projects LtdCEMPRO 58.4/100Mixed-positive evidence100% evidence LEADER 24.1/35 Revenue 8.9% · PAT 47.2% · OPM change 1 pp 100% evidence 17.3/25 ROCE 32.8% · OPM 10% 100% evidence 2.5/20 P/E 35.5× · PEG 5.81 100% evidence 14.5/20 RS sector 44.8% · RS bench 39.7% · 1Y 71.8%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 24.1 + 17.3 + 2.5 + 14.5 = 58.4 · Decision use: Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.
2Mold-Tek Technologies LtdMOLDTECH 57.8/100Mixed-positive evidence67% evidence 28.0/35 Revenue 48.7% · PAT 100% · OPM change 18.5 pp 95% evidence 10.2/25 ROCE 9.5% · OPM 19.9% 76% evidence 7.3/20 P/E 32.4× · PEG — 50% evidence 12.3/20 RS sector — · RS bench 39% · 1Y — 25% evidence
Exact sum: 28 + 10.2 + 7.3 + 12.3 = 57.8 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
3Patel Engineering LtdPATELENG 54.1/100Mixed-positive evidence100% evidence ASLEEP 14.7/35 Revenue -1.4% · PAT 4.7% · OPM change 1 pp 100% evidence 15.3/25 ROCE 13.3% · OPM 14% 100% evidence 14.7/20 P/E 6.7× · PEG 1.52 100% evidence 9.4/20 RS sector -6.4% · RS bench -9.6% · 1Y -26.5%3 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 14.7 + 15.3 + 14.7 + 9.4 = 54.1 · Decision use: Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity.
4Larsen & Toubro LtdLT 53.6/100Mixed-positive evidence82% evidence ASLEEP 18.7/35 Revenue 9.8% · PAT 5.8% · OPM change -1 pp 95% evidence 15.6/25 ROCE 14.6% · OPM 12% 76% evidence 8.7/20 P/E 30.7× · PEG — 50% evidence 10.6/20 RS sector 3.4% · RS bench 0.7% · 1Y 10.6%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 18.7 + 15.6 + 8.7 + 10.6 = 53.6 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
5SPML Infra LtdSPMLINFRA 52.9/100Mixed-positive evidence74% evidence ASLEEP 27.3/35 Revenue 37.8% · PAT 80.8% · OPM change 4.4 pp 95% evidence 3.5/25 ROCE 6.8% · OPM 9% 95% evidence 10.6/20 P/E 17.1× · PEG — 15% evidence 11.5/20 RS sector 3.7% · RS bench -11.3% · 1Y -41.3%1 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 27.3 + 3.5 + 10.6 + 11.5 = 52.9 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
6Ramky Infrastructure LtdRAMKY 51.0/100Mixed-positive evidence76% evidence ASLEEP 13.2/35 Revenue 4.6% · PAT 17.8% · OPM change -14 pp 95% evidence 12.1/25 ROCE 13.7% · OPM 6% 76% evidence 14.0/20 P/E 12.3× · PEG — 50% evidence 11.7/20 RS sector 13.8% · RS bench -31.1% · 1Y -41%0 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 13.2 + 12.1 + 14 + 11.7 = 51 · Decision use: Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity.
7NBCC (India) LtdNBCC 49.4/100Mixed-negative evidence82% evidence ASLEEP 18.5/35 Revenue 3.8% · PAT 30.9% · OPM change 2.4 pp 95% evidence 17.8/25 ROCE 29.3% · OPM 7% 76% evidence 10.1/20 P/E 32.7× · PEG — 50% evidence 3.0/20 RS sector -13.7% · RS bench -16.5% · 1Y -18.9%3 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 18.5 + 17.8 + 10.1 + 3 = 49.4 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
8Hindustan Construction Company LtdHCC 48.5/100Mixed-negative evidence93% evidence ASLEEP 5.8/35 Revenue -20.7% · PAT 0% · OPM change -5 pp 100% evidence 15.4/25 ROCE 24.8% · OPM 11% 100% evidence 11.4/20 P/E 44× · PEG 1.3 65% evidence 15.9/20 RS sector 14.1% · RS bench 10.1% · 1Y -6.3%4 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 5.8 + 15.4 + 11.4 + 15.9 = 48.5 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 10.1%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.
9PNC Infratech LtdPNCINFRA 47.1/100Mixed-negative evidence100% evidence ASLEEP 15.9/35 Revenue -6.5% · PAT 9.4% · OPM change 5 pp 100% evidence 10.0/25 ROCE 8% · OPM 31% 100% evidence 17.7/20 P/E 7.4× · PEG 0.17 100% evidence 3.5/20 RS sector -20.3% · RS bench -23.2% · 1Y -44%6 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 15.9 + 10 + 17.7 + 3.5 = 47.1 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
10Hazoor Multi Projects LtdHAZOOR 46.0/100Mixed-negative evidence69% evidence 13.6/35 Revenue -30.5% · PAT -34.1% · OPM change 70.1 pp 95% evidence 13.4/25 ROCE 12% · OPM 84.5% 76% evidence 10.4/20 P/E 17.8× · PEG — 15% evidence 8.6/20 RS sector 1.7% · RS bench -36.5% · 1Y -53.8%4 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 13.6 + 13.4 + 10.4 + 8.6 = 46 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
11IRB Infrastructure Developers LtdIRB 45.7/100Mixed-negative evidence82% evidence BASING 15.7/35 Revenue -2.2% · PAT -80% · OPM change 9 pp 95% evidence 10.7/25 ROCE 7.5% · OPM 54% 76% evidence 10.2/20 P/E 24.1× · PEG — 50% evidence 9.1/20 RS sector -2.4% · RS bench -5% · 1Y -7.2%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 15.7 + 10.7 + 10.2 + 9.1 = 45.7 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
12Simplex Infrastructures LtdSIMPLEXINF 43.2/100Mixed-negative evidence81% evidence FADING 24.5/35 Revenue 4.6% · PAT 80.8% · OPM change 3.9 pp 95% evidence 4.4/25 ROCE 2.4% · OPM 7% 95% evidence 5.6/20 P/E 44.6× · PEG — 50% evidence 8.7/20 RS sector -19.8% · RS bench 6.1% · 1Y -14.7%7 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 24.5 + 4.4 + 5.6 + 8.7 = 43.2 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
13Likhitha Infrastructure LtdLIKHITHA 42.9/100Mixed-negative evidence87% evidence ASLEEP 7.2/35 Revenue -18.8% · PAT -51.4% · OPM change -2.7 pp 95% evidence 14.1/25 ROCE 13.7% · OPM 12.9% 95% evidence 7.1/20 P/E 26.2× · PEG — 50% evidence 14.5/20 RS sector 11.3% · RS bench 7.3% · 1Y -12.6%4 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 7.2 + 14.1 + 7.1 + 14.5 = 42.9 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 7.3%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.
14H.G. Infra Engineering LtdHGINFRA 39.9/100Mixed-negative evidence94% evidence BASING 15.1/35 Revenue -3.1% · PAT -57.9% · OPM change 10 pp 100% evidence 13.3/25 ROCE 11.3% · OPM 28% 100% evidence 7.0/20 P/E 12.1× · PEG 3.17 100% evidence 4.5/20 RS sector -27.7% · RS bench -25.5% · 1Y -51.5%1 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 15.1 + 13.3 + 7 + 4.5 = 39.9 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
15KNR Constructions LtdKNRCON 39.5/100Mixed-negative evidence82% evidence TURNING 4.3/35 Revenue -39% · PAT -58.8% · OPM change -14 pp 95% evidence 11.7/25 ROCE 10.4% · OPM 16% 76% evidence 13.8/20 P/E 10.3× · PEG — 50% evidence 9.7/20 RS sector -7.9% · RS bench -11.3% · 1Y -36.8%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 4.3 + 11.7 + 13.8 + 9.7 = 39.5 · Decision use: Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity.
16Rail Vikas Nigam Ltdthis pageRVNL 38.7/100Mixed-negative evidence87% evidence BASING 16.1/35 Revenue 5.4% · PAT -24.5% · OPM change 2.9 pp 100% evidence 7.0/25 ROCE 10.8% · OPM 4.3% 100% evidence 4.5/20 P/E 47.5× · PEG 5.08 65% evidence 11.1/20 RS sector 6% · RS bench -27.9% · 1Y -37.8%0 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 16.1 + 7 + 4.5 + 11.1 = 38.7 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
17Vishnu Prakash R Punglia LtdVPRPL 30.3/100Thin evidence · provisional54% evidence 9.4/35 Revenue -22.6% · PAT -80% · OPM change -18 pp 53% evidence 9.4/25 ROCE 11.4% · OPM -7% 71% evidence 8.5/20 P/E 59.9× · PEG — 15% evidence 3.0/20 RS sector -56.9% · RS bench -67.1% · 1Y -72.8%0 of 12 weeks ahead to 2026-03-29 70% evidence
Exact sum: 9.4 + 9.4 + 8.5 + 3 = 30.3 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
18Giriraj Civil Developers LtdGIRIRAJ 51.2/100Thin evidence · provisional44% evidence 21.2/35 Revenue 100% · PAT 100% · OPM change 2 pp 27% evidence 15.0/25 ROCE 20.1% · OPM 8% 71% evidence 10.3/20 P/E 21.1× · PEG — 15% evidence 4.7/20 RS sector -32.2% · RS bench -12.3% · 1Y -42.4%4 of 11 weeks ahead to 2026-03-29 70% evidence
Exact sum: 21.2 + 15 + 10.3 + 4.7 = 51.2 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

Missing observations are not scored as bad. Their missing weight lowers confidence and pulls the final score toward neutral. PEG is not shown when the ratio cannot mean anything: the company must be making a profit, its price-to-earnings must be positive, and its three-year earnings growth must fall between 5% and 60%. Dividing a price multiple by a loss, or by growth measured off a tiny base, produces a number that looks precise and tells you nothing. Under relative strength, one mark per week shows the last 12 weeks: a mark is filled where the company led NIFTY 500 by 5% or more over the 13 weeks ending that week, which is the same test used everywhere on this site. Price stage places the company on the same six-step curve the sector itself is placed on — basing, turning, breaking out, leader, fading, asleep — read from how many weeks running it has led NIFTY 500 and whether that lead is widening or shrinking. It describes where the PRICE stands, not the earnings trajectory and not a recommendation, and it is left blank for a company whose weekly history is too short or too stale to read.

16 · Frequently asked questions

Frequently asked questions

What is Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's share price today?

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd trades at ₹205, −39.4% over the past year. The company is valued at ₹42,722 Cr. The stock sits at the very bottom of its 52-week range (₹205–₹388), −23.8% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a downtrend, 58 weeks in. — as of 11 September 2026.

What were Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's latest quarterly results?

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd reported revenue of ₹4,321 Cr and net profit of ₹160 Cr for the Jun 26 quarter. Revenue rose 10.5% and profit rose 19.4% year on year. Earnings per share were ₹0.76. The operating margin was 4.3%, 2.9 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 11 September 2026.

What is Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's revenue?

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd reported revenue of ₹4,321 Cr in the Jun 26 quarter, +10.5% year on year. For the full FY26 fiscal year, revenue was ₹20,412 Cr (+2.5%). Over the last 10 years revenue compounded at 16.2% a year. — as of 11 September 2026.

What is Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's profit?

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd earned ₹160 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +19.4% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹871 Cr. The operating margin ran 4.3% in the latest quarter. — as of 11 September 2026.

What is Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's market cap?

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's market capitalisation is ₹42,722 Cr at a share price of ₹205. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 11 September 2026.

What is Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's P/E ratio?

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd trades at a P/E of 47.5×, at the 68th percentile of its own 7-year range, against a long-run median of 10.3×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 11 September 2026.

Does Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd pay a dividend?

Yes — Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's dividend payout was 41% of profit in FY26, and it recorded a payout in each of its last 12 reported fiscal years. This page holds the payout ratio, not a per-share amount. — as of 11 September 2026.

Is Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd overvalued?

On its own history, Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd looks expensive: its P/E of 47.5× sits at the 68th percentile of its 7-year range (long-run median 10.3×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. — as of 11 September 2026.

Is Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd growing?

Yes — Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd is growing: latest-quarter revenue +10.5% year on year, profit +19.4%, and the margin +2.9 pp at 4.3%. The 10-year compound rates are 16.2% (revenue) and 7.3% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 11 September 2026.

How is Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd performing?

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd is in a downtrend, 58 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 10.5% and profit rose 19.4% year on year. Against the NIFTY 500 it has been behind on a trailing-13-week view for 31 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 11 September 2026.

What stage is Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd in?

Deteriorating — profit and EPS growth are shrinking (profit growth −24.5% latest against +15.6% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE slipping at 10.8%. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +5.4% latest, profit growth −24.5% latest, eps growth −24.4% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 11 September 2026.

Is Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd in an uptrend?

No — the price is in a downtrend (week 58 of stage 4), trading −23.8% versus its 200-day average and at the very bottom of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 11 September 2026.

Is Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd beating the market?

Not lately — on a trailing-13-week view Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd is currently behind the NIFTY 500 (31 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-02-27), the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 7.4 years the stock moved +937% against the NIFTY 500's +134% — ahead of the index over the full window. — as of 11 September 2026.

Will Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's share price go up?

This page publishes no price forecast for Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd. What it measures instead: the share price is ₹205, the price is in a downtrend 58 weeks in. Its P/E of 47.5× sits at the 68th percentile of its own 7-year range. — as of 11 September 2026.

Who owns Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd?

Promoters hold 72.8% of Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd, foreign institutions 2.4%, domestic institutions 6.6% and the public 18.1% (latest quarter). No holder moved a full point over the last two years — the register is quiet. — as of 11 September 2026.

Does Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd have too much debt?

It is moderate — Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's debt-to-equity is 0.49, and operating profit covers the interest bill 2×. FY26 borrowings were ₹4,818 Cr against equity of ₹9,822 Cr. Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind — as of 11 September 2026.

What is Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's capex?

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd spent ₹757 Cr on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY26 alone that was ₹34.0 Cr, with ₹0.0 Cr in capital work-in-progress — capacity paid for but not yet earning. — as of 11 September 2026.

What is Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's cash flow?

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd consumed ₹1,889 Cr of operating cash in FY26 — cash flowed out rather than in (free cash flow: ₹−1,923 Cr). Operating cash was negative while the company reported a profit of ₹871 Cr. Cash-flow resolution for India is annual. — as of 11 September 2026.

Is Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's profit real cash?

Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 80% of Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash. Though the latest year ran at -217% — the trend is the thing to watch. In FY26, operating cash was ₹−1,889 Cr against reported profit of ₹871 Cr. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 11 September 2026.

Where is Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd in its business cycle?

Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's FY26 operating margin was 3.8%, against a 12-year band of 3.8%–6.0%: the low end of its own band, which is where recoveries start when they come. The latest quarter ran 4.3%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 11 September 2026.

What growth does Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's price assume?

At its price on 13 June 2026, Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd was priced for profit growth of about 29.5% a year. Profit itself has compounded 7.3% a year over the past 10 years. The figure reads the multiple backwards: the growth a buyer at that price was already paying for. — as of 11 September 2026.

What could break the Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd story?

Biggest watch item: the P/E sits at the 68th percentile of its own range — the multiple has already done part of the work. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 11 September 2026.

Is Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd a stock worth studying right now?

This is not investment advice. The machine read: Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd's stock has fallen further than its earnings. EPS fell 31.5% in a year while the price moved −39.4%. The sharpest open question: the next one or two quarters of delivery. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 11 September 2026.

Sector Alpha — machine-written from the numbers · Data as of 2026-09-11. Every chart on this page is drawn by deterministic code from the raw series — no forecasts, no price opinions, and nothing here is investment advice.

Not SEBI Registered !! Not Investment advice !!

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