Kamdhenu Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Kamdhenu Ltd trades at ₹39.1, in a confirmed uptrend and 11 weeks into that stage. That is +31.5% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 99% of a 52-week range of ₹19 to ₹39. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 29 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 11 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹39.1 it trades +31.5% versus its 200-day average and sits at 99% of its 52-week range (₹19–₹39).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +1,578% while the NIFTY 500 moved +273% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 29 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Kamdhenu Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 19 July 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: Not stated in the research file. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 22 August 2026.

Our read, 19 July 2026. Kamdhenu earns royalties from 100 steel franchisees on 39 lakh MT of volumes; the royalty line grew 25% in FY26 on a 10% per-ton rate hike, lifting PBT margin to 13.8% — but OPM sits at the 80th percentile of its own history and normalized PE reaches the 98th percentile, marking the current price as a peak-margin bet, not a depressed-setup.

What is proven. Kamdhenu earns royalties from 100 steel franchisees on 39 lakh MT of volumes; the royalty line grew 25% in FY26 on a 10% per-ton rate hike, lifting PBT margin to 13.8% — but OPM sits at the 80th percentile of its own history and normalized PE reaches the 98th percentile, marking the current price as a peak-margin bet, not a depressed-setup.

What is not proven yet. If royalty income growth decelerates below 10% for two consecutive quarters (indicating the per-ton rate hike cadence is broken or franchise volume growth stalls), or if the unexplained capacity contradiction from 52.5 lakh MT (May 2025) to 5 million MT (May 2026) is confirmed as actual capacity erosion rather than a data-compilation delay, the royalty-compounding story is impaired and the peak-margin PE would compress simultaneously.

🚨 What would change our mind. If royalty income growth decelerates below 10% for two consecutive quarters (indicating the per-ton rate hike cadence is broken or franchise volume growth stalls), or if the unexplained capacity contradiction from 52.5 lakh MT (May 2025) to 5 million MT (May 2026) is confirmed as actual capacity erosion rather than a data-compilation delay, the royalty-compounding story is impaired and the peak-margin PE would compress simultaneously.

Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — KEEP. Cheap on a decade of real profit growth, but last quarter's growth came from the treasury, not the royalty engine. Kamdhenu licenses its brand to 100 steel franchisees who pay Rs 435 per tonne — up 10% — on 37.9 lakh tonnes, so royalty income rose 25% to Rs 175 crore in FY26 and profit rose 29% to Rs 78 crore, with no factory of its own to fund. The market has not paid for that: the shares change hands at 11.6 times earnings, the 42nd percentile of their own ten-year range, while trailing profit has grown roughly ten-fold since 2016. The catch is the June 2026 quarter, which I checked in the database directly — operating profit did not grow at all (Rs 21 crore against Rs 21 crore), and the entire 38% profit rise came from interest on the Rs 300 crore cash pile. One quarter is not a broken thesis, but it…

Layer 2 read, 22 August 2026 — BENCH. The royalty story survives, but the outside evidence is too mixed to promote it. Royalty income rose 25% to ₹175 crore in FY26, but the dated steel-sector pulse remains HEADWIND and says the cohort is bifurcated. The sector capital-cycle reading is NEUTRAL rather than a supply-tightening trough, so this P2 case stays on the bench rather than advancing.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. A verified filing showing royalty growth above 10% for two consecutive quarters and resolving franchise capacity at the stated 52.5 lakh MT level would flip BENCH to ADVANCE.

What the company does. Kamdhenu monetizes the Kamdhenu brand through a franchise royalty model: 100 units pay per-ton fees (₹435/MT in FY26) on 39 lakh MT of TMT volume, with own manufacturing flat at 1.25 lakh MT at full utilization. Royalty income of ₹175 Cr in FY26 (25% YoY, 23% of revenue) drives superior return ratios — FY26 ROCE 26.8% and ROE 19.8% per concall disclosure. The risk is that OPM is at the upper end of its 6-year band; at mid-cycle margins the implied PE rises materially, making the thesis dependent on sustaining the royalty rate-hike cadence rather than mean-reverting.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: OPM at 7.2% and trailing PE at 28.4x — the margin looks adequate and the PE looks moderate at the 68th percentile The research reads it further: OPM is at the 80th percentile of the company's own 6-year history. At mid-cycle normalized margins (4.6%), normalized PAT falls to approximately ₹17 Cr vs trailing ₹26 Cr — a 35% reduction. The implied normalized PE rises to 52.7x, the 98th percentile. This is the PEAK_MARGIN_VALUE_TRAP configuration: the multiple looks moderate only because earnings are inflated by above-average margins.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: FII buying up to 9.57% signals institutional interest in the royalty story The research reads it further: FII holding peaked at 9.57% in Sep 2024 coinciding with the PE peak of 52.3x (Jun 2024), then reversed to 2.06% by Jun 2026 — a 7.51pp exit. This is institutional profit-taking after the re-rating cycle, not a fresh allocation. The promoter reduction of 9.71pp from Dec 2023 to Mar 2026 partially reflects warrant dilution (₹100 Cr raise in FY24) but the quantum is large and the pace is notable.

Sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Kamdhenu Ltd reported ₹213 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +8.7% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at −1.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹763 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹781 Cr.

Why this happened. FY26 royalty income reached ₹175 Cr (+25% YoY from ₹139 Cr in FY25), driven by a dual lever: franchise volume grew to 37.9 lakh MT (+10%) AND royalty rate per MT was raised to ₹435 from ₹398 (+9.3%). Management has guided 10-15% annual rate increases going forward, targeting a path toward ₹500/MT. At current volume and a ₹478-501/MT realized rate, royalty income in FY27 would reach ₹215-225 Cr — a 23-29% growth on FY26. This royalty line carries minimal incremental cost post the established dealer network infrastructure, making it the primary driver of PBT expansion.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹763 Cr (+2.1% on the year), capping 10 years at −1.0% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹213 Cr, +8.7% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +2.7% growth against the decade's −1.0% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +2.9% over the last 4 quarters against +5.6%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +30.3% vs +27.4%/yr — stabilising.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹208 Cr and profit ₹17 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹213 Cr and profit ₹29 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Kamdhenu Ltd's operating margin is 10.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, −1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 3.1% to 13.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. North and East together represent 66% of FY26 franchise volume (31% and 35% respectively), while South contributes only 15% despite national brand presence. Management indicated South will receive new franchise additions as the primary geographic expansion priority, while other regions grow through capacity expansion of existing units. New franchise additions in an established-brand region follow the asset-light model: Kamdhenu funds no capital, the franchisee bears the plant investment while paying a per-ton royalty from day one of production.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 10.0%, −1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 3.1%–13.0%, and FY26's 13.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −1.0 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.9 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹208 Cr and profit ₹17 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹213 Cr and profit ₹29 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Kamdhenu Ltd earned ₹29.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +38.1% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹78.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 25.6%. That is 13.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹21.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹29.0 Cr, +38.1% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹78.0 Cr (+27.9%), and the 10-year compound rate is 25.6%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +8.7% and the margin −1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +33.0% vs revenue +2.7%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹208 Cr and profit ₹17 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹213 Cr and profit ₹29 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (19 July 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 125% of Kamdhenu Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹66.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹78.0 Cr of profit. After ₹24.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹42.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹66.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹78.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹42.0 Cr after ₹24.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 125% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 125%: the cash cycle tightened 71 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 1.8× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Kamdhenu Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 18 days in FY26, down from 89 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹29.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹763 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹2.1 Cr, so roughly ₹38.0 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 25 days, inventory at 6 days — roughly 0.2 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 18 days, tighter than FY21's 89.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 6 days to sell; customers pay about 25 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 13 days — netting out to the 18-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹763 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹2.1 Cr — so the 18-day loop keeps roughly ₹38.0 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹29.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹16.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹11.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.⚠ unverified

Kamdhenu Ltd earns a ROCE of 30% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 12% in FY17. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +40.0 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 10.2% net margin on 1.70× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 30%, recovered from a FY17 trough of 12% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 10.2% net margin × 1.70× asset turns × 1.14× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 19.8% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 52.0% − 12.0% = a +40.0 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every rupee reinvested creates more than a rupee of value — the engine compounds.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.⚠ unverified

Kamdhenu Ltd carries total debt of ₹9.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹396 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.02 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.43 in FY22 to 0.02 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹9.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹396 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.02. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.43 (FY22) to 0.02 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 8.0 points of Kamdhenu Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 49.0% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −4.1 points over the same window, to 2.1%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −8.0 points over 8 quarters to 49.0%; Foreign institutions: −4.1 points over 8 quarters to 2.1%; Domestic institutions: −0.1 points over 8 quarters to 0.0%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−8.0 points), alongside foreign institutions (−4.1 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Kamdhenu Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Kamdhenu Ltd trades at 12.9× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (54th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 12.1×, measured across 10.1 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 12.9× is mid-range by its own standards (54th percentile), against a long-run median of 12.1× measured over 10.1 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +26.9% against a +34.7% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +30.2%/yr price move, ~+25.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+4.9 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +29.0%/yr price move, ~+23.1%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+5.9 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources do not share enough overlapping reported history to be compared. A figure nobody could check is not used to price growth — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 27 August 2026 price, Kamdhenu Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 3.8% a year. Profit itself has compounded 25.6% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 12.9× P/E, the 54th percentile of its own 10-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is unremarkable against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 27 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Kamdhenu Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 30.0% and holding. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

71.6/100 — rank 3 of 18 in Steel Products · 87% evidence confidence

Kamdhenu Ltd scores 71.6 out of 100 against the 18 companies it is compared with in Steel Products, ranking 3. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 20.7 + 19.5 + 12.9 + 18.5 = 71.6. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Kamdhenu Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 2 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Capital Allocation Pivot · 29 May 2026. In the May 2025 call, management highlighted a strategic initiative to acquire stakes in select franchisee units to reshape their business model and expand in-house capacity. However, in the May 2026 call, this M&A strategy was completely abandoned without explanation, with management shifting focus to utilizing their treasury funds solely for organic steel business operations and rewarding shareholders.

Unexplained Capacity Contradiction · 29 May 2026. During the May 2025 call, management stated their franchisee capacity was 52.5 lakh metric tons (5.25 million MT) and elsewhere committed to a 20% expansion over the year. However, in the May 2026 call, they stated the existing capacity was only around 5 million metric tons, indicating an undisclosed contraction rather than the promised growth.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions