Panchmahal Steel Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Panchmahal Steel Ltd trades at ₹304, losing momentum at the top and 10 weeks into that stage. That is +2.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 70% of a 52-week range of ₹193 to ₹351. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 1 straight week.

Today the stock is losing momentum at the top — week 10 of stage 3, confirmed. At ₹304 it trades +2.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 70% of its 52-week range (₹193–₹351).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +1,868% while the NIFTY 500 moved +262% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 1 straight week — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Panchmahal Steel Ltd trades at 138.0× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (69th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 57.6×, measured across 9.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 138.0× is mid-range by its own standards (69th percentile), against a long-run median of 57.6× measured over 9.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −167.4% against a +8.6% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +27.8%/yr price move, ~−28.4%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+56.2 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Panchmahal Steel Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 8 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

4-Factor Sector Score

45.7/100 — rank 7 of 16 in Steel Products · 61% evidence confidence

Panchmahal Steel Ltd scores 45.7 out of 100 against the 16 companies it is compared with in Steel Products, ranking 7. Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 2%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 17.3 + 5.2 + 8.7 + 14.5 = 45.7. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Panchmahal Steel Ltd reported ₹94.0 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +7.3% year on year. That is the 3rd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 2.8% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹384 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹391 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹384 Cr (+0.3% on the year), capping 10 years at 2.8% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹94.0 Cr, +7.3% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +5.1% growth against the decade's 2.8% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +4.9% over the last 4 quarters against −3.4%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Panchmahal Steel Ltd's operating margin is 8.7% in the Jun 26 quarter, +9.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −0.6% to 13.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 8.7%, +9.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −0.6%–13.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +9.0 pp year on year while gross margin went +9.7 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Panchmahal Steel Ltd earned ₹4.3 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter. The full FY26 year was a loss of ₹2.0 Cr. That is 4.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost ₹1.9 Cr. 4 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Jun 26 profit was ₹4.3 Cr, null year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹−2.0 Cr (−166.7%).

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 71% of Panchmahal Steel Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — most of the profit is real cash. In FY26 that was ₹29.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹−2.0 Cr of profit. After ₹3.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹26.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹29.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹−2.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹26.0 Cr after ₹3.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 71% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 71%: the cash cycle stretched 85 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 85 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Panchmahal Steel Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 176 days in FY26, up from 91 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹4.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹384 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹1.1 Cr, so roughly ₹185 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 45 days, inventory at 161 days — roughly 5.3 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 176 days, looser than FY21's 91.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 161 days to sell; customers pay about 45 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 30 days — netting out to the 176-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹384 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹1.1 Cr — so the 176-day loop keeps roughly ₹185 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹4.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹24.0 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Panchmahal Steel Ltd earns a ROCE of 3% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −4% in FY16. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is −0.5% net margin on 1.71× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 3%, recovered from a FY16 trough of −4% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): −0.5% net margin × 1.71× asset turns × 1.48× balance-sheet leverage ≈ −1.3% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Panchmahal Steel Ltd carries ₹35.0 Cr of borrowings against ₹151 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.23. Operating profit covers the interest bill 2×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹55.0 Cr to ₹35.0 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹4.0 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹35.0 Cr against equity of ₹151 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.23. Operating profit covers the interest bill 2×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹55.0 Cr to ₹35.0 Cr while capital spending ran ₹4.0 Cr in just the last 3 — the build-out is being paid for out of cash, not debt.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions cut 3.9 points of Panchmahal Steel Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 0.0% of the company. Promoters moved −1.1 points over the same window, to 73.8%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: −3.9 points over 8 quarters to 0.0%; Promoters: −1.1 points over 8 quarters to 73.8%.

🚨 Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (−3.9 points), alongside promoters (−1.1 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Panchmahal Steel Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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