Sector Alpha Week of 2026-08-05
Sector Alpha — machine-written from the numbers · Data as of 2026-08-05

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.

REFI
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s three tracks disagree. Price, valuation and the earnings engine each tell a different story — the next quarter or two settles it.

Biggest watch item: the price is not yet in a confirmed uptrend — timing risk, not thesis risk.

The price is between stages while the P/E sits at the 5th percentile of its own 1-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read mixed — profit −100.0% year on year, and 67% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: the next one or two quarters of delivery.

Stage
Deteriorating
partial read
Price
$10.0
−22.5% 1Y
P/E
6.9×
5th pctile
of its own 1-year range
Revenue (Mar 26)
$0.0 B
+0.0% YoY
Profit (Mar 26)
$0.0 B
−100.0% YoY
ROE
10%
FY25
Cash conversion
67%
of profit, last 3 FY
01 · Price story

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. trades at $10.0, between stages. That is −16.1% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 5% of a 52-week range of $10 to $14. On relative strength it is currently behind the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view (44 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is between stages. At $10.0 it trades −16.1% versus its 200-day average and sits at 5% of its 52-week range ($10–$14).

Aug 26: $10.0 Weekly closing price ($) with 50- and 200-day averages; shaded bands mark the price stage (grey base, green advance, amber top, red decline). 1-year window.
−16.1% versus the 200-day line, week — of stage —
Price50-day avg200-day avg
$14.8$13.4$12.1$10.7$9.4$$10$12Jul 25Oct 25Jan 26May 26Aug 26
$14.8$13.4$12.1$10.7$9.4$$10$12Jul 25Jan 26Aug 26
Beating or trailing, week by week since 2025 Each cell is one week from 2025 to now (57 weeks): the stock's trailing 13-week return minus the S&P 500's, green ahead / red behind (±25% ramp). Grey cells are the 13-week warm-up or weeks where the S&P 500 reading is not held.
trailing 13-week return vs the S&P 500
Jul 25Aug 26

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.1 years the stock moved −28% while the S&P 500 moved +24% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (44 weeks and counting) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

02 · Valuation

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. trades at 6.9× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 5% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 7.5×, measured across 1.1 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 6.9× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 5% of the time, against a long-run median of 7.5× measured over 1.1 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

P/E 6.9× vs a 7.5× long-run median P/E, weekly (left axis); earnings per share, trailing twelve months, weekly step line (right axis). 1.1-year window; loss-period spikes above 8.4× shown pinned at the top. The eps (ttm) bars are red where the reading is lower than the quarter before.
near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 5% of the time
P/EMedianEPS (TTM) (quarterly)
8.5×$2.08.1×$1.57.6×$1.07.1×$0.56.7×$0.0×$6.94×$1Jul 25Oct 25Jan 26May 26Aug 26
8.5×$2.08.1×$1.57.6×$1.07.1×$0.56.7×$0.0×$6.94×$1Jul 25Jan 26Aug 26
P/E
6.9×
5th percentile of 1y
PEG
n/m
not derivable — 3-year earnings growth unavailable

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −10.6% against a −22.5% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

03 · Stage: Deteriorating

Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — revenue, profit and EPS growth are shrinking (revenue growth −20.0% latest against +100.0% at its 12-quarter best), ROE holding at 12.9%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Growth, year by year: revenue −16.7% in FY25, profit +0.0% Year-over-year growth per fiscal year, %: revenue (left axis); net profit and EPS (right axis — profit growth swings far wider). Zero line drawn.
Revenue YoYProfit YoYEPS YoY
55%37%36%24%17%11%−2.7%−1.6%−22%−14%%%−16.7%0%FY22FY23FY25
55%37%36%24%17%11%−2.7%−1.6%−22%−14%%%−16.7%0%FY22FY23FY25
Three growth curves, twelve quarters Year-on-year growth of trailing-twelve-month revenue (left axis), profit and EPS (right axis — they swing far wider), % at each quarter-end. A missing point means that reading is not held for the quarter.
the trajectory the stage is read from · revenue rolling over, profit rolling over
RevenueProfitEPS
111%110%72%74%33%38%−5.3%0.0%−44%−35%%%−20%−25%−23.4%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
111%110%72%74%33%38%−5.3%0.0%−44%−35%%%−20%−25%−23.4%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
ROE Annual readings — the quarterly balance-sheet pieces this curve needs are not held for this stock, so the returns read moves once a year and carries less weight in the call.
the return curve, annual readings
ROE
15%14%13%12%11%%12.9%FY22FY23FY25
15%14%13%12%11%%12.9%FY22FY23FY25
Revenue growth
Falling
latest −20.0% · span −33.3% to +100.0%
Profit growth
Falling
latest −25.0% · span −25.0% to +100.0%
EPS growth
Falling
latest −23.4% · span −23.4% to +16.5%
ROE
Stuck low
latest 12.9% · span 11.5%–14.8%

🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

Compound annual growth rate (%) Compound annual growth rate over each window, %. Revenue, profit and EPS from fiscal-year figures; stock price is the price CAGR over the same spans. A dash = that window is not held, or the base was a loss.
1yr3yr5yr10yr
Revenue−16.7%+7.7%
Profit+0.0%+10.1%
EPS−10.6%−2.6%
Stock price−22.5%
Revenue YoY (Mar 26)
+0.0%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Profit YoY (Mar 26)
−100.0%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Revenue 10y
7.7%
long-run compound pace
04 · 4-Factor Sector Score

4-Factor Sector Score

39.1/100 — rank 7 of 29 in REIT - Mortgage · 56% evidence confidence

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. scores 39.1 out of 100 against the 29 companies it is compared with in REIT - Mortgage, ranking 7. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 13.8 + 13.6 + 6.4 + 5.3 = 39.1. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

05 · Revenue

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. reported $0.0 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.0% year on year. Over 3 years it has compounded at 7.7% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $0.1 B. The last four reported quarters add to $0.0 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $0.1 B (−16.7% on the year), capping 3 years at 7.7% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $0.0 B, +0.0% year on year.

FY25 revenue $0.1 B (−16.7% YoY) Revenue bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 4-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
7.7% a year over 3 years
RevenueYoY growth
0.0655%0.0536%0.0317%0.02−2.7%0.00−22%$ B%$0B−16.7%FY22FY23FY25
0.0655%0.0536%0.0317%0.02−2.7%0.00−22%$ B%$0B−16.7%FY22FY23FY25
Mar 26: $0.0 B (+0.0% YoY) Quarterly revenue bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
Revenue (quarterly)YoY growth
0.022112%0.01669%0.01125%0.005−19%0.000−62%$ B%$0B0%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
0.022112%0.01669%0.01125%0.005−19%0.000−62%$ B%$0B0%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −12.5% growth against the decade's 7.7% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −20.0% over the last 4 quarters against −10.6%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit −25.0% vs −13.4%/yr — rolling over.

06 · Operating margin

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

A clean operating margin is not in our numbers for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. — its accounts do not report the operating-profit line this section reads, which is common for lenders and holding companies. The sections above and below carry the readings this company's filings do support.

This company's accounts do not report the operating-profit line this section reads — common for lenders and holding companies classified outside the financial bucket. The revenue and net-profit sections are the cleaner reads for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc..

Why: the numbers show the operating margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

07 · Net profit

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. earned $0.0 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −100.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.0 B. The 3-year compound rate is 10.1%. That is 0.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.0 B.

Mar 26 profit was $0.0 B, −100.0% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.0 B (+0.0%), and the 3-year compound rate is 10.1%.

FY25 profit $0.0 B (+0.0% YoY) Net profit bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 4-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
10.1% a year over 3 years
Net profitYoY growth
0.0436%0.0326%0.0217%0.017.0%0.00−2.7%$ B%$0B0%FY22FY23FY25
0.0436%0.0326%0.0217%0.017.0%0.00−2.7%$ B%$0B0%FY22FY23FY25
Mar 26: $0.0 B (−100.0% YoY) Quarterly net profit bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
Net profit (quarterly)YoY growth
0.0118.0%0.008−21%0.005−50%0.003−79%0.000−108%$ B%$0B−100%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
0.0118.0%0.008−21%0.005−50%0.003−79%0.000−108%$ B%$0B−100%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −25.0% vs revenue −12.5%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

08 · Cash flow — the router

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 67% of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — most of the profit is real cash. In FY25 that was $0.0 B of operating cash against $0.0 B of profit. After null of capital spending, $0.0 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $0.0 B against reported profit of $0.0 B, leaving free cash of $0.0 B after null of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 67% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

FY25: CFO $0.0 B vs profit $0.0 B Operating cash flow and net profit by fiscal year, $ B; the line is free cash flow (CFO minus capital spending). 4-year window, annual resolution.
67% of 3-year profit arrived as cash
Operating cashNet profitFree cash
0.040.030.020.010.00$ B$0B$0B$0BFY22FY23FY25
0.040.030.020.010.00$ B$0B$0B$0BFY22FY23FY25
Mar 26: operating cash $0.0 B Operating cash per quarter, $ B (bars); conversion = operating cash as % of net profit (line, right). Last 12 quarters. Dashed line = 100%.
Operating cash (quarterly)Conversion100%
0.022216%0.016158%0.011100%0.00542%0.000−16%$ B%$0B100%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
0.022216%0.016158%0.011100%0.00542%0.000−16%$ B%$0B100%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

🚨 Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

09 · Where the cash goes

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Nothing is estimated in place of the missing day-counts, so no cash-cycle chart is drawn.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

10 · Return on equity

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. earns a ROE of 13% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 12% in FY22. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 80.0% net margin on 0.12× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is 13%, recovered from a FY22 trough of 12% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 80.0% net margin × 0.12× asset turns × 1.35× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 13.0% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

FY25: ROE 13% Return on equity by fiscal year, % (line). 4-year window, dips included. Dashed line = the 4.1% cost of capital used on this page.
the climb back from FY22's 12%
ROEWACC
16%13%9.4%6.3%3.2%%12.9%FY22FY23FY25
16%13%9.4%6.3%3.2%%12.9%FY22FY23FY25
Mar 26: ROE 10.1% (TTM) Trailing-twelve-month ROE, per quarter, %. Last 12 quarters, put on a trailing-twelve-month basis and anchored to the annual figure.
ROE (TTM)
15%14%12%11%9.7%%10.1%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
15%14%12%11%9.7%%10.1%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
11 · Dividend

Dividend A dividend is cash paid out per share. Dividend per share is the declared amount for the period; the trailing twelve-month total is the four most recent quarters added together.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. paid $1.88 per share over the last four reported quarters. The most recent declaration was $0.47 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $10.0 that is a trailing yield of 18.80%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. paid $1.88 per share across the last four reported quarters, most recently $0.47 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $10.0 the trailing twelve months work out to 18.80% — trailing dividends measured against today's price, not a forward estimate.

Dividend per share by quarter Declared dividend per share, $ B, per reported quarter. 12 quarters on file.
latest $0.47 (Mar 26)
Dividend per share
0.50.40.30.10.0$ B$1BJun 23Dec 23Sep 24Jun 25Mar 26
0.50.40.30.10.0$ B$1BJun 23Sep 24Mar 26
12 · Debt

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. carries total debt of $0.1 B against shareholder equity of $0.3 B as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.17 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.00 in FY21 to 0.16 in FY25. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of $0.1 B against shareholder equity of $0.3 B — a debt-to-equity of 0.17. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.00 (FY21) to 0.16 (FY25). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

FY25: debt $0.1 B at 0.16× equity Total debt by fiscal year, $ B (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). 5-year window.
Total debtDebt-to-equity
0.050.17×0.040.13×0.030.08×0.010.03×0.00−0.01×$ B×$0B0.16×FY21FY23FY25
0.050.17×0.040.13×0.030.08×0.010.03×0.00−0.01×$ B×$0B0.16×FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: debt $0.1 B, debt-to-equity 0.17 Total debt per quarter, $ B (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). Last 12 quarters.
Total debt (quarterly)Debt-to-equity
0.050.18×0.040.13×0.030.09×0.010.04×0.00−0.01×$ B×$0B0.17×Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
0.050.18×0.040.13×0.030.09×0.010.04×0.00−0.01×$ B×$0B0.17×Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
13 · Ownership

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

5.0% of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s tradable float is currently sold short — some money is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 5.3 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

The latest reading: 5.0% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 5.3 days to buy those positions back. Some money is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.

Short interest
5.0%
of the tradable float
Days to cover
5.3
at typical volumes

Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.

14 · Safety line

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

15 · Related companies · REIT - Mortgage
CompanyScorePrice stageGrowth & earnings/35Capital efficiency/25Valuation/20Relative strength/20
1NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc.NREF 62.5/100Thin evidence · provisional56% evidence FADING 24.1/35 Income 41.8% · PAT 57.9% 55% evidence 13.1/25 ROA — · ROE 3.1% · GNPA — 34% evidence 8.6/20 P/BV 0.65× · P/BV÷ROE 0.21 70% evidence 16.7/20 RS sector 27.5% · RS bench 5% · 1Y 20.6%5 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 24.1 + 13.1 + 8.6 + 16.7 = 62.5 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
2Ellington Financial Inc.EFC 60.6/100Thin evidence · provisional56% evidence ASLEEP 24.8/35 Income 39.9% · PAT 43.1% 55% evidence 13.9/25 ROA — · ROE 6% · GNPA — 34% evidence 8.6/20 P/BV 0.77× · P/BV÷ROE 0.13 70% evidence 13.3/20 RS sector 9.6% · RS bench -10.1% · 1Y 2.5%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 24.8 + 13.9 + 8.6 + 13.3 = 60.6 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
3Starwood Property Trust, Inc.STWD 45.6/100Mixed-negative evidence62% evidence BASING 20.2/35 Income 12.3% · PAT 13.9% 55% evidence 12.8/25 ROA — · ROE 0.8% · GNPA — 34% evidence 3.3/20 P/BV 0.96× · P/BV÷ROE 1.2 70% evidence 9.3/20 RS sector -1.5% · RS bench -19.5% · 1Y -18.2%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 20.2 + 12.8 + 3.3 + 9.3 = 45.6 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
4Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.ARI 43.1/100Thin evidence · provisional56% evidence ASLEEP 21.5/35 Income -8.3% · PAT 100% 55% evidence 12.8/25 ROA — · ROE 1.4% · GNPA — 34% evidence 5.0/20 P/BV 0.8× · P/BV÷ROE 0.57 70% evidence 3.8/20 RS sector -26.8% · RS bench -40.1% · 1Y -32.2%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 21.5 + 12.8 + 5 + 3.8 = 43.1 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
5Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.FBRT 42.0/100Thin evidence · provisional54% evidence ASLEEP 20.4/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence 11.0/25 ROA -0.6% · ROE 1.1% · GNPA — 68% evidence 6.0/20 P/BV 0.55× · P/BV÷ROE 0.5 70% evidence 4.6/20 RS sector -12.2% · RS bench -28.5% · 1Y -29.2%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 20.4 + 11 + 6 + 4.6 = 42 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
6Ready Capital CorporationRC 39.2/100Thin evidence · provisional56% evidence ASLEEP 12.5/35 Income -25.8% · PAT -38.6% 55% evidence 14.2/25 ROA — · ROE 5.9% · GNPA — 34% evidence 8.6/20 P/BV 0.2× · P/BV÷ROE 0.03 70% evidence 3.9/20 RS sector -25.8% · RS bench -40.5% · 1Y -60.9%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 12.5 + 14.2 + 8.6 + 3.9 = 39.2 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
7Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.this pageREFI 39.1/100Thin evidence · provisional56% evidence ASLEEP 13.8/35 Income -12.5% · PAT -18.4% 55% evidence 13.6/25 ROA — · ROE 1.6% · GNPA — 34% evidence 6.4/20 P/BV 0.79× · P/BV÷ROE 0.49 70% evidence 5.3/20 RS sector -10.2% · RS bench -26.7% · 1Y -27.1%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 13.8 + 13.6 + 6.4 + 5.3 = 39.1 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
8Annaly Capital Management, Inc.NLY 56.9/100Thin evidence · provisional46% evidence BASING 19.1/35 Income — · PAT — 10% evidence 13.1/25 ROA — · ROE 5.4% · GNPA — 34% evidence 8.0/20 P/BV 0.97× · P/BV÷ROE 0.18 70% evidence 16.7/20 RS sector 12.1% · RS bench -7.9% · 1Y 10.4%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 19.1 + 13.1 + 8 + 16.7 = 56.9 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
9Adamas Trust, Inc.ADAM 56.7/100Thin evidence · provisional40% evidence FADING 18.8/35 Income — · PAT — 10% evidence 12.3/25 ROA — · ROE 3.7% · GNPA — 34% evidence 8.6/20 P/BV 0.57× · P/BV÷ROE 0.15 70% evidence 17.0/20 RS sector 30.5% · RS bench 7.9% · 1Y 43.2%7 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 18.8 + 12.3 + 8.6 + 17 = 56.7 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
10Dynex Capital, Inc.DX 50.7/100Thin evidence · provisional41% evidence BASING 19.7/35 Income 100% · PAT 100% 29% evidence 9.6/25 ROA — · ROE -3.9% · GNPA — 34% evidence 9.1/20 P/BV 0.97× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 12.3/20 RS sector 5% · RS bench -13.8% · 1Y 2.7%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 19.7 + 9.6 + 9.1 + 12.3 = 50.7 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
11Two Harbors Investment Corp.TWO 50.3/100Thin evidence · provisional28% evidence ASLEEP 16.0/35 Income — · PAT — 10% evidence 9.3/25 ROA — · ROE -3.4% · GNPA — 34% evidence 9.8/20 P/BV 0.75× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 15.2/20 RS sector 19.1% · RS bench -1.6% · 1Y 22.5%5 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 16 + 9.3 + 9.8 + 15.2 = 50.3 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
12Rithm Capital Corp.RITM 49.6/100Thin evidence · provisional46% evidence BASING 16.5/35 Income — · PAT — 10% evidence 12.5/25 ROA — · ROE 0.8% · GNPA — 34% evidence 4.7/20 P/BV 0.62× · P/BV÷ROE 0.77 70% evidence 15.9/20 RS sector 6.9% · RS bench -12.9% · 1Y -16.5%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 16.5 + 12.5 + 4.7 + 15.9 = 49.6 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
13Ares Commercial Real Estate CorporationACRE 47.6/100Thin evidence · provisional49% evidence BASING 15.1/35 Income -20.9% · PAT — 45% evidence 11.3/25 ROA 0.1% · ROE -1.9% · GNPA — 68% evidence 9.8/20 P/BV 0.54× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 11.4/20 RS sector 4% · RS bench -14.7% · 1Y 6.9%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 15.1 + 11.3 + 9.8 + 11.4 = 47.6 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
14MFA Financial, Inc.MFA 47.2/100Thin evidence · provisional44% evidence BASING 15.3/35 Income -3% · PAT -2.2% 55% evidence 11.4/25 ROA — · ROE -0.1% · GNPA — 34% evidence 9.8/20 P/BV 0.55× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 10.7/20 RS sector 3% · RS bench -15.5% · 1Y -2.4%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 15.3 + 11.4 + 9.8 + 10.7 = 47.2 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
15AGNC Investment Corp.AGNC 46.8/100Thin evidence · provisional50% evidence ASLEEP 14.9/35 Income — · PAT — 30% evidence 8.4/25 ROA -0.5% · ROE -4.8% · GNPA — 68% evidence 9.0/20 P/BV 1× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 14.5/20 RS sector 10.1% · RS bench -9.5% · 1Y 12.6%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 14.9 + 8.4 + 9 + 14.5 = 46.8 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
16TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.TRTX 45.6/100Thin evidence · provisional40% evidence ASLEEP 17.6/35 Income — · PAT — 10% evidence 12.7/25 ROA — · ROE 1.2% · GNPA — 34% evidence 5.5/20 P/BV 0.62× · P/BV÷ROE 0.51 70% evidence 9.8/20 RS sector 1.1% · RS bench -17.2% · 1Y -10%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 17.6 + 12.7 + 5.5 + 9.8 = 45.6 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
17Redwood Trust, Inc.RWT 45.6/100Thin evidence · provisional28% evidence BASING 19.2/35 Income — · PAT — 10% evidence 11.0/25 ROA — · ROE -0.1% · GNPA — 34% evidence 9.8/20 P/BV 0.73× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 5.6/20 RS sector -7.7% · RS bench -24.6% · 1Y -18.3%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 19.2 + 11 + 9.8 + 5.6 = 45.6 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
18Ladder Capital CorpLADR 43.5/100Thin evidence · provisional40% evidence BASING 17.9/35 Income — · PAT — 10% evidence 13.0/25 ROA — · ROE 1% · GNPA — 34% evidence 3.8/20 P/BV 0.88× · P/BV÷ROE 0.88 70% evidence 8.8/20 RS sector -0.1% · RS bench -18.3% · 1Y -13.2%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 17.9 + 13 + 3.8 + 8.8 = 43.5 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
19BrightSpire Capital, Inc.BRSP 43.4/100Thin evidence · provisional48% evidence ASLEEP 19.6/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence 10.2/25 ROA -0.4% · ROE -2.2% · GNPA — 68% evidence 9.6/20 P/BV 0.8× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 4.0/20 RS sector -3.3% · RS bench -20.7% · 1Y -6.6%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 19.6 + 10.2 + 9.6 + 4 = 43.4 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
20TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc.MITT 42.8/100Thin evidence · provisional44% evidence ASLEEP 13.3/35 Income -6.1% · PAT -23.4% 55% evidence 11.4/25 ROA — · ROE -0.6% · GNPA — 34% evidence 9.8/20 P/BV 0.43× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 8.3/20 RS sector -0.6% · RS bench -18.5% · 1Y -3.5%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 13.3 + 11.4 + 9.8 + 8.3 = 42.8 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
21Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.AOMR 42.6/100Thin evidence · provisional44% evidence BASING 9.3/35 Income -36.8% · PAT -56.8% 55% evidence 9.8/25 ROA — · ROE -2.9% · GNPA — 34% evidence 9.6/20 P/BV 0.8× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 13.9/20 RS sector 11.9% · RS bench -8.3% · 1Y -0.1%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 9.3 + 9.8 + 9.6 + 13.9 = 42.6 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
22Chimera Investment CorporationCIM 42.5/100Thin evidence · provisional44% evidence BASING 9.5/35 Income -35.7% · PAT -98.9% 55% evidence 11.0/25 ROA — · ROE -0.8% · GNPA — 34% evidence 9.8/20 P/BV 0.43× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 12.2/20 RS sector 5% · RS bench -13.8% · 1Y -5.7%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 9.5 + 11 + 9.8 + 12.2 = 42.5 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
23Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.ABR 42.0/100Thin evidence · provisional28% evidence BASING 17.0/35 Income — · PAT — 10% evidence 11.9/25 ROA — · ROE -1% · GNPA — 34% evidence 9.8/20 P/BV 0.37× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 3.3/20 RS sector -29.9% · RS bench -43.6% · 1Y -55.8%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 17 + 11.9 + 9.8 + 3.3 = 42 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
24ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.ARR 40.6/100Thin evidence · provisional48% evidence BASING 14.0/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence 5.1/25 ROA -1% · ROE -9.5% · GNPA — 68% evidence 9.5/20 P/BV 0.84× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 12.0/20 RS sector 6.6% · RS bench -12.4% · 1Y 5.2%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 14 + 5.1 + 9.5 + 12 = 40.6 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
25PennyMac Mortgage Investment TrustPMT 40.4/100Thin evidence · provisional28% evidence BASING 16.3/35 Income — · PAT — 10% evidence 9.4/25 ROA — · ROE -4.7% · GNPA — 34% evidence 9.8/20 P/BV 0.53× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 4.9/20 RS sector -11.2% · RS bench -27.6% · 1Y -20.4%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 16.3 + 9.4 + 9.8 + 4.9 = 40.4 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
26Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.BXMT 37.7/100Thin evidence · provisional34% evidence ASLEEP 16.8/35 Income — · PAT — 10% evidence 10.2/25 ROA — · ROE -2.4% · GNPA — 34% evidence 9.4/20 P/BV 0.88× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 1.3/20 RS sector -15.6% · RS bench -31% · 1Y -23.6%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 16.8 + 10.2 + 9.4 + 1.3 = 37.7 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
27Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc.CMTG 37.1/100Thin evidence · provisional35% evidence ASLEEP 15.0/35 Income -677.5% · PAT — 29% evidence 9.3/25 ROA — · ROE -3.2% · GNPA — 34% evidence 9.8/20 P/BV 0.22× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 3.0/20 RS sector -32.4% · RS bench -45.2% · 1Y -48.4%1 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 15 + 9.3 + 9.8 + 3 = 37.1 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
28Orchid Island Capital, Inc.ORC 36.7/100Thin evidence · provisional42% evidence BASING 14.1/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence 6.4/25 ROA -0.7% · ROE -5.8% · GNPA — 68% evidence 9.1/20 P/BV 0.97× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 7.1/20 RS sector -2.3% · RS bench -20% · 1Y -10.6%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 14.1 + 6.4 + 9.1 + 7.1 = 36.7 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
29Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.IVR 36.4/100Thin evidence · provisional42% evidence BASING 12.9/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence 4.4/25 ROA -1.2% · ROE -9.5% · GNPA — 68% evidence 9.8/20 P/BV 0.74× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence 9.3/20 RS sector 0.7% · RS bench -17.4% · 1Y -2.8%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 12.9 + 4.4 + 9.8 + 9.3 = 36.4 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

Missing observations are not scored as bad. Their missing weight lowers confidence and pulls the final score toward neutral. Financial companies use P/BV÷ROE and asset quality; PEG, industrial OPM and ROCE are excluded. Under relative strength, one mark per week shows the last 12 weeks: a mark is filled where the company led S&P 500 by 5% or more over the 13 weeks ending that week, which is the same test used everywhere on this site. Price stage places the company on the same six-step curve the sector itself is placed on — basing, turning, breaking out, leader, fading, asleep — read from how many weeks running it has led S&P 500 and whether that lead is widening or shrinking. It describes where the PRICE stands, not the earnings trajectory and not a recommendation, and it is left blank for a company whose weekly history is too short or too stale to read.

16 · Frequently asked questions

Frequently asked questions

What is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s stock price today?

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. trades at $10.0, −22.5% over the past year. The company is valued at $0.0 B. The stock sits at 5% of its 52-week range of $10–$14, −16.1% versus its 200-day average. Against the S&P 500 it has been behind on a trailing-13-week view for 44 weeks. — as of 5 August 2026.

What were Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s latest quarterly results?

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. reported revenue of $0.0 B and net profit of $0.0 B for the Mar 26 quarter. Revenue rose 0.0% and profit fell 100.0% year on year. Earnings per share were $0.23. — as of 5 August 2026.

What is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s revenue?

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. reported revenue of $0.0 B in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.0% year on year. For the full FY25 fiscal year, revenue was $0.1 B (−16.7%). Over the last 3 years revenue compounded at 7.7% a year. — as of 5 August 2026.

What is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s profit?

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. earned $0.0 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −100.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.0 B. — as of 5 August 2026.

What is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s market cap?

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s market capitalisation is $0.0 B at a stock price of $10.0. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 5 August 2026.

What is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s P/E ratio?

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. trades at a P/E of 6.9×, at the 5th percentile of its own 1-year range, against a long-run median of 7.5×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 5 August 2026.

Does Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. pay a dividend?

Yes — Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. declared $0.47 per share for Mar 26, and $1.88 per share across the last four reported quarters. — as of 5 August 2026.

What is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s dividend per share?

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s most recently declared dividend is $0.47 per share for Mar 26, giving $1.88 per share over the trailing twelve months. Each figure is the amount declared for that quarter as reported, added across four quarters for the trailing total. — as of 5 August 2026.

What is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s dividend yield?

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s trailing dividend yield is 18.80%: $1.88 declared per share across the last four reported quarters, against a share price of $10.0. Each quarter’s figure is the amount declared for that quarter as reported, added across four quarters and divided by the latest close. — as of 5 August 2026.

Is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. overvalued?

On its own history, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. looks cheap against its own history: its P/E of 6.9× has been cheaper only 5% of the time in 1 years (long-run median 7.5×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. — as of 5 August 2026.

Is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. growing?

The picture is mixed for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.: latest-quarter revenue +0.0% year on year, profit −100.0%. The 3-year compound rates are 7.7% (revenue) and 10.1% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: mixed — as of 5 August 2026.

How is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. performing?

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s latest readings are below. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 0.0% and profit fell 100.0% year on year. Against the S&P 500 it has been behind on a trailing-13-week view for 44 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 5 August 2026.

What stage is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. in?

Deteriorating — revenue, profit and EPS growth are shrinking (revenue growth −20.0% latest against +100.0% at its 12-quarter best), ROE holding at 12.9%. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth −20.0% latest, profit growth −25.0% latest, eps growth −23.4% latest) plus the ROE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 5 August 2026.

Is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. beating the market?

Not lately — on a trailing-13-week view Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. is currently behind the S&P 500 (44 weeks and counting), the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 1.1 years the stock moved −28% against the S&P 500's +24% — behind the index over the full window. — as of 5 August 2026.

Will Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s stock price go up?

This page publishes no price forecast for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. What it measures instead: the stock price is $10.0. Its P/E of 6.9× sits at the 5th percentile of its own 1-year range. Direction is not something this site claims to know. — as of 5 August 2026.

Is the market betting against Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.?

Somewhat — short interest is 5.0% of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s tradable float, about 5.3 days to cover at typical volumes. A moderate reading: some money is positioned against it. With no quarter-by-quarter holder register here, short interest is the cleanest crowd read we hold — as of 5 August 2026.

Does Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. have too much debt?

It is moderate — Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s debt-to-equity is 0.38. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so the latest reading is the cleanest hold. Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind — as of 5 August 2026.

What is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s cash flow?

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. generated $0.0 B of operating cash flow in FY25 and $0.0 B of free cash flow after null of capital spending. Reported profit that year was $0.0 B, so operating cash ran behind profit. — as of 5 August 2026.

Is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s profit real cash?

Mostly — over the last 3 fiscal years, 67% of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY25, operating cash was $0.0 B against reported profit of $0.0 B. The cash then goes into a mix of the working-capital cycle and capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 5 August 2026.

What could break the Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. story?

Biggest watch item: the price is not yet in a confirmed uptrend — timing risk, not thesis risk. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 5 August 2026.

Is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. a stock worth studying right now?

This is not investment advice. The machine read: Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s three tracks disagree. Price, valuation and the earnings engine each tell a different story — the next quarter or two settles it. The sharpest open question: the next one or two quarters of delivery. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 5 August 2026.

Chat with this pageChat with pageChatChatGPTClaudePerplexityGoogle AI