Rossell Techsys Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Rossell Techsys Ltd trades at ₹1,214, in a confirmed uptrend and 60 weeks into that stage. That is +35.5% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 100% of a 52-week range of ₹574 to ₹1,214. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 5 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 60 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹1,214 it trades +35.5% versus its 200-day average and sits at 100% of its 52-week range (₹574–₹1,214).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.7 years the stock moved +126% while the NIFTY 500 moved +0% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 5 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Rossell Techsys Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 17 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: EXPANDING_MID_STAGE. Still open: PE 148x on FY26 EPS of Rs 5.81 prices flawless execution; a single EBITDA guide miss (17-22% not delivered in FY27) could compress multiple to 80-100x, implying 30-45% downside.

Our read, 17 May 2026. A qualification-to-production scaling story — 87% FY26 revenue growth with margin temporarily compressed; the inflection to 17-22% EBITDA is the trade.

From the numbers. PE at 148x on FY26 EPS of Rs 5.81 — pe_pb_cycle shows EXPANDING_MID_STAGE / RIDING_WAVE at 71st percentile. Not compressed; the stock is pricing in forward earnings improvement. DII buying (FII at 1.5%, DII at 2.77% and…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 60 — above its 200-day line, relative strength rising.

From the research. A qualification-to-production scaling story — 87% FY26 revenue growth with margin temporarily compressed; the inflection to 17-22% EBITDA is the trade.

🚨 Where they disagree. PE at 148x on FY26 EPS of Rs 5.81 — pe_pb_cycle shows EXPANDING_MID_STAGE / RIDING_WAVE at 71st percentile. Not compressed; the stock is pricing in forward earnings improvement. DII buying (FII at 1.5%, DII at 2.77% and building). Promoter at 74.80% stable. The cycle is mid-expansion — a multiple de-rating story if margin targets miss, not a mean-reversion opportunity.

What is proven. A qualification-to-production scaling story — 87% FY26 revenue growth with margin temporarily compressed; the inflection to 17-22% EBITDA is the trade.

What is not proven yet. PE 148x on FY26 EPS of Rs 5.81 prices flawless execution; a single EBITDA guide miss (17-22% not delivered in FY27) could compress multiple to 80-100x, implying 30-45% downside.

The test written in advance. Extreme valuation — PE 148x on FY26; any margin miss = multiple collapse — Extreme valuation — PE 148x on FY26; any margin miss = multiple collapse Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin vs 17% floor by the next result.

The test written in advance. Management consistency failures — 3 documented across 4 calls — Management consistency failures — 3 documented across 4 calls Q2 FY27 concall — does QIP close? Does EBITDA land ≥17%? by the next result.

The test written in advance. US concentration — 80% revenue; Boeing/Lockheed program dependency — US concentration — 80% revenue; Boeing/Lockheed program dependency Boeing revenue concentration Q-o-Q; India domestic order wins by the next result.

What the company does. FY26 closed with revenue Rs 485 Cr (+87% YoY), PBT Rs 28 Cr (+180% YoY); order book Rs 750 Cr confirmed POs + Rs 3,000 Cr strategic agreements provide 3+ year visibility. EBITDA margin compressed to 13.6% from intentional FAI/qualification investments for semiconductor and space programs — management targets 17-22% for FY27 as programs ramp to production. Three new growth vectors (semiconductor, space, commercial aviation MRO) collectively targeting 300-400% FY27 growth alongside 80-90% blended revenue growth; PE 148x prices flawless execution.

Lever 6 · Order-book wins — BUILDING. Rs 750 Cr confirmed POs (2-3 year execution) backed by Rs 3,000 Cr strategic agreements providing 6x+ revenue visibility; Rs 4,500 Cr bids pending. What proves it keeps working: Order Book / Contract Wins — Rs 750 Cr POs + Rs 3,000 Cr Strategic Agreements. It stops working if Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin vs 17% floor.

Lever 4 · Paying down debt — BUILDING. Every new qualification program transitions from high-cost FAI phase to lean production — EBITDA should structurally step from 13.6% toward 17-22% as qualifications complete in FY27. What proves it keeps working: FAI-to-Production Margin Inflection — 13.6% → 17-22% EBITDA Target. It stops working if Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin vs 17% floor.

Lever 7 · Consolidation — BUILDING. Semiconductor went from Rs 0 to Rs 20%+ of FY26 revenue; one customer shifted from South Korean supply base; second major customer in active onboarding; $200M in 3-5 years. What proves it keeps working: Semiconductor Segment — From Single Customer to $200M Potential. It stops working if Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin vs 17% floor.

Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. Shortlisted as preferred supplier by multinational commercial aviation players; RFPs expected Q2 FY27; management calls years 2-5 revenue 'exponentially larger' than defence + space + semiconductor combined. What proves it keeps working: Commercial Aviation Entry — Transformational Optionality. It stops working if Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin vs 17% floor.

Sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Rossell Techsys Ltd reported ₹154 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +77.1% year on year. That is the 7th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹485 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹552 Cr.

Why this happened. The order pipeline provides structural forward revenue certainty. Confirmed POs at Rs 750 Cr represent approximately 1.5 years of current revenue (FY26: Rs 485 Cr), while the Rs 3,000 Cr strategic agreements map 3-5 year program visibility. The Rs 4,500 Cr bid pipeline represents 9x current revenue and provides acceleration optionality. Fortune 500 aerospace customers (Boeing, Lockheed Martin) provide repeat, level-loaded schedules. This is not single-contract concentration — 30+ customers across aerospace/defence, semiconductor, and space.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹485 Cr (+86.5% on the year). The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹154 Cr, +77.1% year on year — the 7th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +82.9% over the last 4 quarters against +58.7%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +68.8% vs +96.9%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Rossell Techsys Ltd's operating margin is 14.4% in the Jun 26 quarter, +1.8 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 3 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 13.0% to 15.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 14.4%, +1.8 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 3 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 13.0%–15.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +1.8 pp year on year while gross margin went −2.6 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Rossell Techsys Ltd earned ₹7.1 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +116.4% year on year. It is the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹22.0 Cr. That is 4.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹3.3 Cr. 2 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Jun 26 profit was ₹7.1 Cr, +116.4% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹22.0 Cr (+175.0%).

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +77.1% and the margin +1.8 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +43.4% vs revenue +89.2%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years −302% of Rossell Techsys Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹−83.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹22.0 Cr of profit. After ₹23.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹−106 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹−83.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹22.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−106 Cr after ₹23.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is −302% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at −302%: the cash cycle tightened 121 days between FY24 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Rossell Techsys Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 412 days in FY26, down from 533 days in FY24. Capital spending ran ₹48.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹485 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹1.3 Cr, so roughly ₹547 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 88 days, inventory at 380 days — roughly 12.5 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 412 days, tighter than FY24's 533.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 380 days to sell; customers pay about 88 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 55 days — netting out to the 412-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹485 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹1.3 Cr — so the 412-day loop keeps roughly ₹547 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹48.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹33.0 Cr of depreciation — building somewhat ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹2.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Rossell Techsys Ltd earns a ROCE of 12% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 8% in FY25. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −3.3 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 4.5% net margin on 0.77× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 12%, recovered from a FY25 trough of 8% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 4.5% net margin × 0.77× asset turns × 4.07× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 14.1% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 8.7% − 12.0% = a −3.3 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Rossell Techsys Ltd carries total debt of ₹409 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹155 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 2.64. On the annual view that ratio went from 1.32 in FY24 to 2.64 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Why this happened. The margin compression narrative is critical to understanding the thesis. FY26 EBITDA declined to 13.6% (from 14.6% FY25) despite 87% revenue growth because management deliberately invested in 1,200-person headcount expansion, customer FAI qualification costs, training, and setup for semiconductor and space programs. These are one-time certification costs that do not immediately generate revenue but gate future volume production. As each program transitions from FAI to production phase, unit costs normalise and margins expand. Management targets 17-22% EBITDA in FY27, implying 350-850bps expansion. The automation underway in semiconductor should maintain margins inline with…

Mar 26: total debt of ₹409 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹155 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 2.64. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 1.32 (FY24) to 2.64 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions cut 1.9 points of Rossell Techsys Ltd over 7 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 0.8% of the company. Foreign institutions moved +0.2 points over the same window, to 1.7%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: −1.9 points over 7 quarters to 0.8%; Foreign institutions: +0.2 points over 7 quarters to 1.7%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 7 quarters to 74.8%.

🚨 Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (−1.9 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Rossell Techsys Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Rossell Techsys Ltd trades at 173.0× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (91st percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 115.3×, measured across 1.8 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 173.0× is at the pricey end of its own range (91st percentile), against a long-run median of 115.3× measured over 1.8 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +176.7% against a +62.8% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Rossell Techsys Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 8 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

4-Factor Sector Score

62.9/100 — rank 5 of 25 in Aerospace & Defence - Equipments · 83% evidence confidence

Rossell Techsys Ltd scores 62.9 out of 100 against the 25 companies it is compared with in Aerospace & Defence - Equipments, ranking 5. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 28.8 + 8 + 8.9 + 17.2 = 62.9. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Rossell Techsys Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

🚨 QIP Deadline Missed and Sizing Basis Changed · 12 May 2026. In the Nov 2025 call, management committed to closing the QIP by end of December 2025, stating a fixed INR300 crore target. By the Feb 2026 call, the December deadline had passed with no revised timeline provided, though the INR300 crore figure was reaffirmed. By the May 2026 call, the QIP remains unclosed - now more than five months past the original deadline - and the sizing methodology has shifted from a specific INR300 crore to 7% to 10% based on market cap, a fundamentally different framing that implies a variable and potentially different dilution quantum without any explanation provided for either the persistent delay or the change in sizing approach.

🚨 FY26 Non-Defense Segment Mix Significantly Below Q3-Guided Level · 12 May 2026. In the Feb 2026 call with just one quarter remaining in FY26, both the Managing Director and CEO explicitly confirmed the FY26 revenue split at approximately 70% aerospace/defense and 30% non-aerospace/defense, with the CEO validating this estimate directly on the call. The May 2026 call reporting FY26 actuals disclosed that space and semiconductor - the primary constituents of the non-defense category given MRO and commercial aviation had not yet started - contributed only approximately 20% of FY26 revenue, a 10 percentage point shortfall against guidance given with dual executive confirmation and minimal time remaining in the year.

EBITDA Margin Floor Silently Raised and Misrepresented as Consistent History · 12 May 2026. In the Nov 2025 call, management framed the EBITDA margin target as 15% to 20%, explicitly invoking the phrase 'I've always said' to present this as a consistent long-standing position. In the May 2026 call, management again invokes 'I've always said' but this time cites a 17% to 22% range, raising the stated floor by 200 basis points while claiming unchanged guidance history. Using identical anchoring language to assert two different ranges in two documentable calls is a direct credibility inconsistency that analysts tracking management narrative reliability would be right to question.

🚨 QIP Fundraising Timeline Miss · 4 February 2026. In the November 2025 call, management explicitly stated the intent to close the INR300 crore QIP within 45 days (by end of December 2025). In the February 2026 call, the QIP is still described as merely "underway" with vague timing dependent on market sentiment, confirming a missed deadline without a specific new date. Earlier call (Nov 2025): “So another, I would say 45 days, the QIP should be closed. So that”. Later call (Feb 2026): “The process is underway. We are in dialogue with investors... It is a matter of timing and market sentiment. It will be done sooner rather than later.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

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