Mufin Green Finance Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Mufin Green Finance Ltd trades at ₹135, in a confirmed uptrend and 42 weeks into that stage. That is +16.1% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 96% of a 52-week range of ₹88 to ₹137. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 3 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 42 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹135 it trades +16.1% versus its 200-day average and sits at 96% of its 52-week range (₹88–₹137).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 6.9 years the stock moved +4,185% while the NIFTY 500 moved +155% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 3 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Mufin Green Finance Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 31 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: EARLY_EXPANSION. Still open: At Rs 2,134 Cr MCap vs Rs 28 Cr FY26 PAT, P/E of 75x demands execution against the 300% PAT growth guide — any slip destroys the multiple.

Our read, 31 May 2026. A micro-cap NBFC repricing via product-mix pivot from 2–2.5% ROA EV lending to 8–9% ROA insurance premium financing — profitability growing 3x faster than AUM.

From the numbers. P/B at 3.3x vs median 6.0x — 0th percentile per pe_pb_cycle. However, this is a mean-revert opportunity ONLY IF ROE expands toward 12–15%+ to justify the median P/B. Current ROE 6.69% does not support median P/B…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 42 — above its 200-day line, relative strength falling.

From the research. A micro-cap NBFC repricing via product-mix pivot from 2–2.5% ROA EV lending to 8–9% ROA insurance premium financing — profitability growing 3x faster than AUM.

🚨 Where they disagree. P/B at 3.3x vs median 6.0x — 0th percentile per pe_pb_cycle. However, this is a mean-revert opportunity ONLY IF ROE expands toward 12–15%+ to justify the median P/B. Current ROE 6.69% does not support median P/B re-rating. The cycle call depends on FY27 execution. DII selling (11.90% → 8.39% in one quarter) is a negative institutional signal.

What is proven. A micro-cap NBFC repricing via product-mix pivot from 2–2.5% ROA EV lending to 8–9% ROA insurance premium financing — profitability growing 3x faster than AUM.

What is not proven yet. At Rs 2,134 Cr MCap vs Rs 28 Cr FY26 PAT, P/E of 75x demands execution against the 300% PAT growth guide — any slip destroys the multiple.

🚨 Layer 1 read, 27 June 2026 — DROP. Genuine young NBFC profit inflection, but priced at 4.4x book and 90x PE in advance of a 6.7% ROE. Mufin's PAT is accelerating cleanly (3 to 11cr across FY26 with financing margin rising 9% to 24%) on a real pivot into 8-9% ROA insurance premium financing. The problem is the price has already paid for it: PE 89.8 and P/BV 4.4x (absolute RICH) on a still-sub-cost-of-equity 6.69% ROE, with true_story flagging is_trap and a CEO-vs-CFO profit-timeline contradiction — so the fresh engine ranks low until the ROE catches the multiple.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. If realised ROE climbs toward the cost of equity (the guided FY27 PAT of 80-90cr actually lands, lifting ROE well above 6.69%), the EXTREME multiple becomes justified and this re-rates from a low-ranked P2 to P1; conversely a missed Q1 FY27 PAT below 18cr confirms the multiple ran ahead of the engine.

The test written in advance. Valuation pricing in flawless execution at 75x PE / 3.7x P/B on 6.69% ROE — Valuation pricing in flawless execution at 75x PE / 3.7x P/B on 6.69% ROE Q1 FY27 PAT vs implied run-rate of Rs 20+ Cr/quarter to hit Rs 80 Cr FY27 guide by the next result.

The test written in advance. AUM concentration in insurance premium financing — 3 lakh crore market but early stage — AUM concentration in insurance premium financing — 3 lakh crore market but early stage NPA on insurance premium financing portfolio exceeds 0.5% for two consecutive quarters by the next result.

The test written in advance. Promoter dilution trend — 58.19% (Mar 2023) to 54.11% (Dec 2025) — Promoter dilution trend — 58.19% (Mar 2023) to 54.11% (Dec 2025) Promoter holding drops below 50% or accelerates by 2pp+ in a single quarter by the next result.

What the company does. FY26 PAT Rs 28 Cr from Rs 19 Cr FY25 (+47% YoY); Q4 FY26 PBT Rs 14.83 Cr (+200% YoY) — insurance premium financing at Rs 600 Cr AUM (39% of portfolio) with 0.01% NPA and 8–9% ROA drove the inflection. Credit rating upgraded to A-; borrowing rate compressed from 13.80% to 12.17% QoQ; PSU bank lending activated at 9.50%; net worth doubled to Rs 574 Cr from Rs 270 Cr with a 300 Cr capital raise. FY27 management guidance: Rs 80–90 Cr PAT (300% growth), Rs 2,500 Cr AUM minimum, insurance product at 50–60% of mix — product economics widening spread as rates compress toward 11% target.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. Insurance premium financing: Rs 600 Cr AUM (39% of portfolio), 0.01% NPA, 8–9% ROA vs 2–2.5% on EV/solar. CRISIL A+ pool rating on the portfolio. FY27 target Rs 1,000+ Cr at 50–60% of mix. What proves it keeps working: Product Mix Pivot to Insurance Premium Financing. It stops working if Q1 FY27 PAT vs implied run-rate of Rs 20+ Cr/quarter to hit Rs 80 Cr FY27 guide.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. Borrowing rate from 13.80% (Q1 FY26) to 12.17% (Q4 FY26); PSU bank lending activated at 9.50% after A- upgrade; FY27 target 11%. What proves it keeps working: Borrowing Cost Compression Post A- Upgrade. It stops working if Q1 FY27 PAT vs implied run-rate of Rs 20+ Cr/quarter to hit Rs 80 Cr FY27 guide.

Lever 14 · A bigger market to sell into — BUILDING. Live in Rajasthan (18 lakh employees) and Assam — EMI deducted at treasury level before salary credit; 4–5% ROA, 12–20% yield; discussions ongoing with Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Meghalaya, Goa. What proves it keeps working: Salary Saathi Government Employee Lending. It stops working if Q1 FY27 PAT vs implied run-rate of Rs 20+ Cr/quarter to hit Rs 80 Cr FY27 guide.

Sources: our stock research file (31 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fee and other income.

Mufin Green Finance Ltd reported ₹77.0 Cr of income in the Jun 26 quarter, +57.1% year on year. That is the 8th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 2 years it has compounded at 46.4% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹210 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹248 Cr.

Why this happened. The structural delinquency protection (EMI at top of government waterfall) makes this a near-zero credit-cost product in practice. Avg ticket Rs 4 lakhs, 5-year tenure. The ROA of 4–5% is 2x the EV/solar product. Scale depends on state MOU execution, which carries political/execution risk. Four states in discussion; successful conversion of one large state (Maharashtra) would add 25+ lakh government employees to the addressable pool.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹210 Cr (+15.4% on the year), capping 2 years at 46.4% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹77.0 Cr, +57.1% year on year — the 8th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +27.6% growth against the decade's 46.4% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +27.8% over the last 4 quarters against +45.6%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +111.1% vs +49.5%/yr — accelerating.

Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every ₹100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. It is the cleanest single margin we can read for a lender.

Mufin Green Finance Ltd's net margin is 18.2% in the Jun 26 quarter, +12.1 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 3 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 10.4% to 16.3%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

Why this happened. Insurance premium financing carries zero customer acquisition cost, negligible delinquency, embedded securitization, and ROA of 8–9%. At Rs 600 Cr AUM with 0.01% NPA, this product is the primary driver of Q4 FY26 PBT tripling YoY. The business model is tech-based checkout integration at insurance company pages — scalable without proportional cost addition. FY27 target of Rs 1,000+ Cr AUM at 50–60% of mix, if achieved, would lift consolidated ROA toward 4–5% from current 1.4%.

The latest quarter's net margin is 18.2%, +12.1 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 3 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 10.4%–16.3%.

Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Mufin Green Finance Ltd earned ₹14.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +366.7% year on year. It is the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹28.0 Cr. The 2-year compound rate is 32.3%. That is 18.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹3.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹14.0 Cr, +366.7% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹28.0 Cr (+47.4%), and the 2-year compound rate is 32.3%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +57.1% and the margin +12.1 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +162.5% vs revenue +27.6%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.

Loan-book quality history is not available for Mufin Green Finance Ltd, so this section names the gap rather than estimating a ratio. No gross or net non-performing-asset series is filed in a form this page can read, and none is inferred from the profit line. The income, margin and return sections above carry the evidence this business does report.

We do not hold quarterly loan-book quality numbers for this bank, so this section states that plainly rather than working around it.

Why: loan-book quality is the engine room of a bank, and its drivers — slippages, recoveries, provisioning — sit below what we hold for this name; the sections around it carry the reads we can stand behind.

The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book grows, revenue grows with it. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.

Mufin Green Finance Ltd's revenue grew +15.4% in FY26 to ₹210 Cr, so the book is growing. The latest quarter ran +57.1% year on year. The net margin on that income is 18.2%, +12.1 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.

FY26 revenue was ₹210 Cr, +15.4% on the year, and the latest quarter ran +57.1% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 18.2% this quarter (+12.1 pp YoY) — growth with a widening margin on it.

The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — gross NPA is the loan-quality read we carry here.

Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.

Mufin Green Finance Ltd earns a return on equity of 7% in FY26. Its trough over the ladder below was 7% in FY24. For a lender the balance sheet is the operating asset, so equity return and asset return have to be read together.

FY26 ROE came in at 7%. Return on assets is withheld on this page — its two source series disagree for this quarter. That return is below the bar a bank must clear to compound book value quickly — which is also the honest reason the stock trades where it does.

Why: the ROE ladder shows the move; the deposit-cost and provisioning drivers behind it sit below what we hold.

Debt

For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.

A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 7.2 points of Mufin Green Finance Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 47.3% of the company. Domestic institutions moved −3.0 points over the same window, to 10.1%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −7.2 points over 8 quarters to 47.3%; Domestic institutions: −3.0 points over 8 quarters to 10.1%; Foreign institutions: +1.8 points over 8 quarters to 2.3%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions +1.8 points against domestic institutions −3.0 points over 8 quarters, with promoters −7.2 points — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Mufin Green Finance Ltd: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.

Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each ₹1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.

Mufin Green Finance Ltd trades at 4.7× P/BV, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 25% of the time. Its long-run median P/BV is 5.8×, measured across 2.2 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/BV of 4.7× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 25% of the time, against a long-run median of 5.8× measured over 2.2 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

The honest context for that discount: a bank earning about 7% on its equity is worth less per rupee of book, and the market has priced that in rather than overlooked it. The discount closes only if the returns themselves improve.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year book value grew while the price moved +47.1% — price and book moved together, holding the multiple in its range.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Mufin Green Finance Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −25.0% at the trough to +366.7% off a 4-quarter-old trough (single-quarter readings), ROE holding at 4.7%. The read is built from 8 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

54.8/100 — rank 9 of 33 in Finance & Investments - Others · 82% evidence confidence

Mufin Green Finance Ltd scores 54.8 out of 100 against the 33 companies it is compared with in Finance & Investments - Others, ranking 9. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 23.9 + 11.1 + 3.7 + 16.1 = 54.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Mufin Green Finance Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 1 tracked promise on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Profit Target Timeline Contradiction · 28 May 2026. During the Q&A session, management provided conflicting forward-looking timelines for reaching their ambitious 500 crore profitability target. One executive asserted the milestone would be achieved in "a couple of years," but this was immediately walked back by another management member to a more conservative 3-4 year timeline to align with formal investor projections.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions