Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd trades at ₹586, in a confirmed uptrend and 14 weeks into that stage. That is +12.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 88% of a 52-week range of ₹413 to ₹610. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 11 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 14 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹586 it trades +12.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 88% of its 52-week range (₹413–₹610).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +535% while the NIFTY 500 moved +276% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 11 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd trades at 32.7× P/E, about the priciest it has ever traded. Its long-run median P/E is 15.5×, measured across 10.0 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 32.7× is about the priciest it has ever traded, against a long-run median of 15.5× measured over 10.0 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −13.4% against a +4.1% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +9.0%/yr price move, ~−3.7%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+12.7 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +16.0%/yr price move, ~+6.8%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+9.2 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — profit and EPS growth are shrinking (profit growth −13.1% latest against +117.5% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE holding at 12.8%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.

4-Factor Sector Score

50.3/100 — rank 9 of 20 in Sugar · 96% evidence confidence

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd scores 50.3 out of 100 against the 20 companies it is compared with in Sugar, ranking 9. Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 16.5%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 15.3 + 13.2 + 2.4 + 19.4 = 50.3. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd reported ₹1,604 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +6.6% year on year. That is the 5th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 8.6% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹6,271 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹6,271 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹6,271 Cr (+15.8% on the year), capping 10 years at 8.6% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹1,604 Cr, +6.6% year on year — the 5th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +16.4% growth against the decade's 8.6% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +15.8% over the last 4 quarters against +5.9%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit −13.1% vs −15.8%/yr — stabilising.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd's operating margin is 18.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, −6.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.3% to 26.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 18.0%, −6.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.3%–26.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −6.5 pp year on year while gross margin went −6.4 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd earned ₹160 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −30.1% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹378 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 14.2%. That is 10.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹229 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹160 Cr, −30.1% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹378 Cr (−13.5%), and the 10-year compound rate is 14.2%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +6.6% and the margin −6.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −3.4% vs revenue +16.4%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 89% of Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹599 Cr of operating cash against ₹378 Cr of profit. After ₹1,777 Cr of capital spending, ₹−1,178 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹599 Cr against reported profit of ₹378 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−1,178 Cr after ₹1,777 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 89% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 89%: the cash cycle stretched 12 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 4.3× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 219 days in FY26, up from 207 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹2,244 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹6,271 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹17.2 Cr, so roughly ₹3,763 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 10 days, inventory at 248 days — roughly 8.2 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 219 days, looser than FY21's 207.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 248 days to sell; customers pay about 10 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 40 days — netting out to the 219-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹6,271 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹17.2 Cr — so the 219-day loop keeps roughly ₹3,763 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹2,244 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹516 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹1,747 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd earns a ROCE of 9% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 1% in FY15. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −5.6 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 6.0% net margin on 0.75× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 9%, recovered from a FY15 trough of 1% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 6.0% net margin × 0.75× asset turns × 2.03× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 9.1% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 6.4% − 12.0% = a −5.6 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd carries total debt of ₹3,170 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹4,138 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.77. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.44 in FY22 to 0.77 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹3,170 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹4,138 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.77. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.44 (FY22) to 0.77 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 6.5 points of Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 29.1% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −2.9 points over the same window, to 9.3%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +6.5 points over 8 quarters to 29.1%; Foreign institutions: −2.9 points over 8 quarters to 9.3%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 42.9%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −2.9 points against domestic institutions +6.5 points over 8 quarters, with promoters holding steady — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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