Cincinnati Financial Corporation
CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation's three tracks disagree. Price, valuation and the earnings engine each tell a different story — the next quarter or two settles it.
Biggest watch item: the price is already 10 weeks into its uptrend — timing risk, not thesis risk.
The price is in a confirmed uptrend (10 weeks in) while the P/BV sits at the 60th percentile of its own 5-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read improving, with the the net margin at 9.4%. What settles it: the next one or two quarters of delivery.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation trades at $179, in a confirmed uptrend and 10 weeks into that stage. That is +8.3% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 69% of a 52-week range of $151 to $192. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 7 straight weeks.
Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 10 of stage 2. At $179 it trades +8.3% versus its 200-day average and sits at 69% of its 52-week range ($151–$192).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +137% while the S&P 500 moved +263% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 7 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each $1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation trades at 1.6× P/BV, mid-range by its own standards (60th percentile). Its long-run median P/BV is 1.6×, measured across 5.1 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/BV of 1.6× is mid-range by its own standards (60th percentile), against a long-run median of 1.6× measured over 5.1 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year book value grew while the price moved +22.7% — price and book moved together, holding the multiple in its range.
The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +8.5%/yr price move, ~+8.0%/yr came from book-value growth and ~+0.5 pp from the multiple (roughly flat). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus book-value growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.
Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.
Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
Cincinnati Financial Corporation reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −30.6% at the trough to +90.3%, a 3-quarter improving streak, ROE lifting at 17.6%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.
Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +11.4% | +24.4% | — | — |
| Profit | +4.4% | — | — | — |
| EPS | +4.4% | — | — | — |
| Stock price | +22.7% | +18.1% | +8.5% | +9.0% |
4-Factor Sector Score
54.8/100 — rank 8 of 30 in Insurance - Property & Casualty · 60% evidence confidence
Cincinnati Financial Corporation scores 54.8 out of 100 against the 30 companies it is compared with in Insurance - Property & Casualty, ranking 8. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 21.3 + 16.4 + 10.7 + 6.4 = 54.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fees from its businesses.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation reported $2.9 B of income in the Mar 26 quarter, +11.3% year on year. That is the 4th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 7.0% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $12.6 B. The last four reported quarters add to $12.9 B.
FY25 revenue came in at $12.6 B (+11.4% on the year), capping 4 years at 7.0% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $2.9 B, +11.3% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +18.3% growth against the decade's 7.0% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.
Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +17.9% over the last 4 quarters against +9.9%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +90.3% vs +7.9%/yr — accelerating.
Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every $100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. With big fee businesses in the mix, it is the cleanest margin we can read for this bank.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation's net margin is 9.4% in the Mar 26 quarter, +12.9 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the net margin has ranged −7.5% to 30.8%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
The latest quarter's net margin is 9.4%, +12.9 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the net margin has ranged −7.5%–30.8%.
Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation earned $0.3 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter. Full-year FY25 profit was $2.4 B. The 4-year compound rate is −5.3%. That is 9.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost $0.1 B. 2 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.
Mar 26 profit was $0.3 B, null year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $2.4 B (+4.4%), and the 4-year compound rate is −5.3%.
Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +75.0% vs revenue +18.3%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra dollar of revenue drops more to the bottom line.
Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.
Loan-book quality history is not available for Cincinnati Financial Corporation, so this section names the gap rather than estimating a ratio. No gross or net non-performing-asset series is filed in a form this page can read, and none is inferred from the profit line. The income, margin and return sections above carry the evidence this business does report.
We do not hold quarterly loan-book quality numbers for this bank, so this section states that plainly rather than working around it.
Why: loan-book quality is the engine room of a bank, and its drivers — slippages, recoveries, provisioning — sit below what we hold for this name; the sections around it carry the reads we can stand behind.
The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book and the businesses grow, revenue grows with them. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation's revenue grew +11.4% in FY25 to $12.6 B, so the book is growing. The latest quarter ran +11.3% year on year. The net margin on that income is 9.4%, +12.9 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.
FY25 revenue was $12.6 B, +11.4% on the year, and the latest quarter ran +11.3% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 9.4% this quarter (+12.9 pp YoY) — growth with a widening margin on it.
The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — with quarterly loan-quality numbers missing here, revenue growth and margin are the two we watch.
Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation earns a return on equity of 15% in FY25. Its trough over the ladder below was −5% in FY22. On the asset side every $100 of the balance sheet earned about $6.41, which is the return before leverage is applied.
FY25 ROE came in at 15%, recovered from a FY22 trough of −5%. On assets, the latest reading is about 6.41% — every $100 the bank deploys earns roughly $6.41 a year. That clears the bar a bank must beat for its book value to compound.
Why ROE moved: profit compounded −5.3% a year over 4 years while the equity base grew more slowly — earnings recovering faster than book value builds is what lifts ROE off a trough.
Dividend A dividend is cash paid out per share. Dividend per share is the declared amount for the period; the trailing twelve-month total is the four most recent quarters added together.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation paid $3.55 per share over the last four reported quarters, up 8.0% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $0.94 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $179 that is a trailing yield of 1.98%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation paid $3.55 per share across the last four reported quarters, most recently $0.94 for Mar 26. That is up 8.0% against the same quarter a year earlier. Against the current price of $179 the trailing twelve months work out to 1.98% — trailing dividends measured against today's price, not a forward estimate.
Debt
For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.
A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.
Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.
2.3% of Cincinnati Financial Corporation's tradable float is currently sold short — some money is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 3.4 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.
The latest reading: 2.3% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 3.4 days to buy those positions back. Some money is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.
Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.
| Company | Score | Price stage | Growth & earnings/35 | Capital efficiency/25 | Valuation/20 | Relative strength/20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1The Allstate CorporationALL | 69.3/100Favorable setup76% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 24.5/35 Income 4.4% · PAT 100% 71% evidence | 15.6/25 ROA 2.1% · ROE 9.2% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 12.2/20 P/BV 1.69× · P/BV÷ROE 0.18 70% evidence | 17.0/20 RS sector 8.8% · RS bench 10.4% · 1Y 27%6 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 24.5 + 15.6 + 12.2 + 17 = 69.3 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 2Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc.SLDE | 68.5/100Thin evidence · provisional54% evidence | TURNING | 20.5/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence | 20.0/25 ROA 4.2% · ROE 13.1% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 13.5/20 P/BV 1.87× · P/BV÷ROE 0.14 70% evidence | 14.5/20 RS sector 5.5% · RS bench 7.2% · 1Y 20.5%3 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 20.5 + 20 + 13.5 + 14.5 = 68.5 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 3The Travelers Companies, Inc.TRV | 60.2/100Mixed-positive evidence60% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 20.1/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence | 14.5/25 ROA 1.6% · ROE 7% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 7.5/20 P/BV 2.08× · P/BV÷ROE 0.3 70% evidence | 18.1/20 RS sector 12.1% · RS bench 13.8% · 1Y 42.4%4 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 20.1 + 14.5 + 7.5 + 18.1 = 60.2 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 4Mercury General CorporationMCY | 57.8/100Mixed-positive evidence67% evidence | FADING | 22.2/35 Income 9.7% · PAT 100% 45% evidence | 15.1/25 ROA 2.1% · ROE 8.6% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 9.8/20 P/BV 1.89× · P/BV÷ROE 0.22 70% evidence | 10.7/20 RS sector 3% · RS bench 4.7% · 1Y 50.5%7 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 22.2 + 15.1 + 9.8 + 10.7 = 57.8 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 5Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.SKWD | 57.0/100Mixed-positive evidence76% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 19.9/35 Income 28.9% · PAT 43.5% 71% evidence | 11.7/25 ROA 1.1% · ROE 4.8% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 6.6/20 P/BV 1.59× · P/BV÷ROE 0.33 70% evidence | 18.8/20 RS sector 12.2% · RS bench 13.7% · 1Y 26.4%8 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 19.9 + 11.7 + 6.6 + 18.8 = 57 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 6United Fire Group, Inc.UFCS | 56.8/100Mixed-positive evidence70% evidence | LEADER | 22.9/35 Income 10.6% · PAT 97% 71% evidence | 9.3/25 ROA 0.9% · ROE 3.4% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 7.9/20 P/BV 1× · P/BV÷ROE 0.29 70% evidence | 16.7/20 RS sector 21.9% · RS bench 24.1% · 1Y 84.7%11 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 22.9 + 9.3 + 7.9 + 16.7 = 56.8 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 7HCI Group, Inc.HCI | 55.2/100Mixed-positive evidence62% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 22.5/35 Income 22.1% · PAT 100% 55% evidence | 13.9/25 ROA — · ROE 9.9% · GNPA — 34% evidence | 11.7/20 P/BV 1.83× · P/BV÷ROE 0.18 70% evidence | 7.1/20 RS sector -7.7% · RS bench -6.5% · 1Y 27.4%6 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 22.5 + 13.9 + 11.7 + 7.1 = 55.2 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 8Cincinnati Financial Corporationthis pageCINF | 54.8/100Mixed-positive evidence60% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 21.3/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence | 16.4/25 ROA 3.1% · ROE 8.1% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 10.7/20 P/BV 1.7× · P/BV÷ROE 0.21 70% evidence | 6.4/20 RS sector -3.4% · RS bench -1.9% · 1Y 19.5%4 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 21.3 + 16.4 + 10.7 + 6.4 = 54.8 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 9The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.THG | 53.7/100Mixed-positive evidence60% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 18.0/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence | 13.5/25 ROA 1.6% · ROE 5.6% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 5.9/20 P/BV 2.03× · P/BV÷ROE 0.36 70% evidence | 16.3/20 RS sector 9.2% · RS bench 10.9% · 1Y 35%7 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 18 + 13.5 + 5.9 + 16.3 = 53.7 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 10RLI Corp.RLI | 52.9/100Mixed-positive evidence60% evidence | TURNING | 20.7/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence | 17.5/25 ROA 2.7% · ROE 9.6% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 6.5/20 P/BV 3.09× · P/BV÷ROE 0.32 70% evidence | 8.2/20 RS sector -9.3% · RS bench -8.2% · 1Y -7.1%3 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 20.7 + 17.5 + 6.5 + 8.2 = 52.9 · Decision use: Strong business, demanding price: keep it on the quality list, but require either earnings upgrades or valuation compression. | ||||||
| 11W. R. Berkley CorporationWRB | 52.3/100Mixed-positive evidence60% evidence | TURNING | 21.6/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence | 17.9/25 ROA 2.2% · ROE 9.7% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 8.3/20 P/BV 2.54× · P/BV÷ROE 0.26 70% evidence | 4.5/20 RS sector -9.6% · RS bench -8.4% · 1Y 2.1%3 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 21.6 + 17.9 + 8.3 + 4.5 = 52.3 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 12Assurant, Inc.AIZ | 52.0/100Mixed-positive evidence76% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 22.1/35 Income 9% · PAT 49% 71% evidence | 10.8/25 ROA 0.8% · ROE 4.9% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 5.7/20 P/BV 1.84× · P/BV÷ROE 0.38 70% evidence | 13.4/20 RS sector 6.2% · RS bench 7.9% · 1Y 38.4%11 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 22.1 + 10.8 + 5.7 + 13.4 = 52 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 13Palomar Holdings, Inc.PLMR | 48.7/100Mixed-negative evidence62% evidence | TURNING | 21.8/35 Income 60.4% · PAT 47% 55% evidence | 11.9/25 ROA — · ROE 4.9% · GNPA — 34% evidence | 3.3/20 P/BV 3.3× · P/BV÷ROE 0.67 70% evidence | 11.7/20 RS sector -2.2% · RS bench -0.9% · 1Y 13.1%3 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 21.8 + 11.9 + 3.3 + 11.7 = 48.7 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 14Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.KNSL | 48.1/100Mixed-negative evidence60% evidence | TURNING | 18.8/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence | 18.1/25 ROA 3% · ROE 9.4% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 4.8/20 P/BV 3.69× · P/BV÷ROE 0.39 70% evidence | 6.4/20 RS sector -15.2% · RS bench -14.2% · 1Y -17.3%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 18.8 + 18.1 + 4.8 + 6.4 = 48.1 · Decision use: Strong business, demanding price: keep it on the quality list, but require either earnings upgrades or valuation compression. | ||||||
| 15Selective Insurance Group, Inc.SIGI | 46.0/100Mixed-negative evidence60% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 18.3/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence | 10.3/25 ROA 0.9% · ROE 3.7% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 5.1/20 P/BV 1.58× · P/BV÷ROE 0.43 70% evidence | 12.3/20 RS sector 2.1% · RS bench 3.7% · 1Y 23.6%9 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 18.3 + 10.3 + 5.1 + 12.3 = 46 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 16Markel Group Inc.MKL | 45.5/100Mixed-negative evidence60% evidence | BASING | 20.5/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence | 14.6/25 ROA 1.8% · ROE 6.3% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 8.6/20 P/BV 1.28× · P/BV÷ROE 0.2 70% evidence | 1.8/20 RS sector -15.2% · RS bench -14% · 1Y -1.2%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 20.5 + 14.6 + 8.6 + 1.8 = 45.5 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 17Old Republic International CorporationORI | 44.8/100Mixed-negative evidence60% evidence | TURNING | 20.2/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence | 11.8/25 ROA 1.1% · ROE 5.3% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 7.3/20 P/BV 1.64× · P/BV÷ROE 0.31 70% evidence | 5.5/20 RS sector -7.1% · RS bench -5.9% · 1Y 16.2%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 20.2 + 11.8 + 7.3 + 5.5 = 44.8 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 18The Progressive CorporationPGR | 43.6/100Mixed-negative evidence60% evidence | FADING | 14.9/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence | 18.1/25 ROA 2.8% · ROE 9.9% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 5.3/20 P/BV 3.61× · P/BV÷ROE 0.36 70% evidence | 5.3/20 RS sector -14.1% · RS bench -13% · 1Y -14.5%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 14.9 + 18.1 + 5.3 + 5.3 = 43.6 · Decision use: Strong business, demanding price: keep it on the quality list, but require either earnings upgrades or valuation compression. | ||||||
| 19Safety Insurance Group, Inc.SAFT | 42.0/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | TURNING | 10.0/35 Income 10.8% · PAT -13.7% 71% evidence | 5.8/25 ROA -0.6% · ROE -1.7% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 9.8/20 P/BV 1.25× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence | 16.4/20 RS sector 20.4% · RS bench 22.1% · 1Y 45.5%3 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 10 + 5.8 + 9.8 + 16.4 = 42 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 20Horace Mann Educators CorporationHMN | 41.6/100Mixed-negative evidence76% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 17.4/35 Income 5.5% · PAT 43.9% 71% evidence | 7.5/25 ROA 0.3% · ROE 2.9% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 5.3/20 P/BV 1.17× · P/BV÷ROE 0.4 70% evidence | 11.4/20 RS sector 0.1% · RS bench 1.6% · 1Y 17.8%7 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 17.4 + 7.5 + 5.3 + 11.4 = 41.6 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 21White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.WTM | 40.1/100Mixed-negative evidence64% evidence | ASLEEP | 21.4/35 Income 69.3% · PAT 100% 71% evidence | 5.8/25 ROA 0% · ROE -0.5% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 9.8/20 P/BV 1.01× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence | 3.1/20 RS sector -8.7% · RS bench -7.2% · 1Y 20.9%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 21.4 + 5.8 + 9.8 + 3.1 = 40.1 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 22Chubb LimitedCB | 38.8/100Mixed-negative evidence60% evidence | TURNING | 14.8/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence | 11.7/25 ROA 1.1% · ROE 3.7% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 4.6/20 P/BV 1.75× · P/BV÷ROE 0.47 70% evidence | 7.7/20 RS sector -1.4% · RS bench 0.2% · 1Y 28.4%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 14.8 + 11.7 + 4.6 + 7.7 = 38.8 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 23CNA Financial CorporationCNA | 38.6/100Mixed-negative evidence76% evidence | TURNING | 14.0/35 Income 4% · PAT 35.8% 71% evidence | 7.7/25 ROA 0.3% · ROE 2% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 4.2/20 P/BV 1.14× · P/BV÷ROE 0.57 70% evidence | 12.7/20 RS sector -0.8% · RS bench 0.6% · 1Y 12.7%3 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 14 + 7.7 + 4.2 + 12.7 = 38.6 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 24Stewart Information Services CorporationSTC | 36.7/100Mixed-negative evidence60% evidence | ASLEEP | 17.3/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence | 12.6/25 ROA 1.6% · ROE 2.7% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 4.8/20 P/BV 1.21× · P/BV÷ROE 0.45 70% evidence | 2.0/20 RS sector -12.4% · RS bench -11.2% · 1Y 1.8%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 17.3 + 12.6 + 4.8 + 2 = 36.7 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 25Loews CorporationL | 32.9/100Adverse evidence76% evidence | TURNING | 14.5/35 Income 4.2% · PAT 23.8% 71% evidence | 7.9/25 ROA 0.5% · ROE 1.9% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 4.0/20 P/BV 1.17× · P/BV÷ROE 0.62 70% evidence | 6.5/20 RS sector -3.2% · RS bench -1.7% · 1Y 23.7%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 14.5 + 7.9 + 4 + 6.5 = 32.9 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 26Hagerty, Inc.HGTY | 32.2/100Adverse evidence64% evidence | TURNING | 13.1/35 Income 15.4% · PAT 12.4% 71% evidence | 4.9/25 ROA -0.6% · ROE -2.2% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 9.1/20 P/BV 4.87× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence | 5.1/20 RS sector -11.6% · RS bench -10.4% · 1Y 10%4 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 13.1 + 4.9 + 9.1 + 5.1 = 32.2 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 27American Financial Group, Inc.AFG | 29.7/100Adverse evidence76% evidence | TURNING | 11.9/35 Income -1.2% · PAT 10% 71% evidence | 9.8/25 ROA 0.6% · ROE 4.2% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 4.1/20 P/BV 2.27× · P/BV÷ROE 0.54 70% evidence | 3.9/20 RS sector -7.9% · RS bench -6.6% · 1Y 8.7%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 11.9 + 9.8 + 4.1 + 3.9 = 29.7 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 28Kemper CorporationKMPR | 24.7/100Thin evidence · provisional58% evidence | BASING | 6.2/35 Income 0.3% · PAT -90.6% 71% evidence | 5.7/25 ROA 0% · ROE -0.2% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 9.8/20 P/BV 0.68× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence | 3.0/20 RS sector -30.2% · RS bench -29.5% · 1Y -41.5%0 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 6.2 + 5.7 + 9.8 + 3 = 24.7 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 29Porch Group, Inc.PRCH | 47.6/100Thin evidence · provisional48% evidence | BREAKING OUT | 13.2/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence | 4.6/25 ROA -0.5% · ROE -164.7% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 9.8/20 P/BV -143.74× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence | 20.0/20 RS sector 28.2% · RS bench 29.5% · 1Y 16.3%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 13.2 + 4.6 + 9.8 + 20 = 47.6 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 30Lemonade, Inc.LMND | 30.7/100Thin evidence · provisional48% evidence | ASLEEP | 17.3/35 Income — · PAT — 26% evidence | 4.1/25 ROA -2.2% · ROE -8.5% · GNPA — 68% evidence | 9.0/20 P/BV 10× · P/BV÷ROE — 10% evidence | 0.3/20 RS sector -24% · RS bench -23% · 1Y 10.5%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 17.3 + 4.1 + 9 + 0.3 = 30.7 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
Missing observations are not scored as bad. Their missing weight lowers confidence and pulls the final score toward neutral. Financial companies use P/BV÷ROE and asset quality; PEG, industrial OPM and ROCE are excluded. Under relative strength, one mark per week shows the last 12 weeks: a mark is filled where the company led S&P 500 by 5% or more over the 13 weeks ending that week, which is the same test used everywhere on this site. Price stage places the company on the same six-step curve the sector itself is placed on — basing, turning, breaking out, leader, fading, asleep — read from how many weeks running it has led S&P 500 and whether that lead is widening or shrinking. It describes where the PRICE stands, not the earnings trajectory and not a recommendation, and it is left blank for a company whose weekly history is too short or too stale to read.
Frequently asked questions
What is Cincinnati Financial Corporation's stock price today?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation trades at $179, +22.7% over the past year. The company is valued at $28.0 B. The stock sits at 69% of its 52-week range of $151–$192, +8.3% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a confirmed uptrend, 10 weeks in. — as of 5 August 2026.
What were Cincinnati Financial Corporation's latest quarterly results?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation reported total income of $2.9 B and net profit of $0.3 B for the Mar 26 quarter. Earnings per share were $1.75. The net margin was 9.4%, 12.9 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is Cincinnati Financial Corporation's revenue?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation reported revenue of $2.9 B in the Mar 26 quarter, +11.3% year on year. For the full FY25 fiscal year, revenue was $12.6 B (+11.4%). Over the last 4 years revenue compounded at 7.0% a year. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is Cincinnati Financial Corporation's profit?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation earned $0.3 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter. Full-year FY25 profit was $2.4 B. The net margin ran 9.4% in the latest quarter. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is Cincinnati Financial Corporation's market cap?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation's market capitalisation is $28.0 B at a stock price of $179. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is Cincinnati Financial Corporation's P/BV ratio?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation trades at a P/BV of 1.6×, at the 60th percentile of its own 5-year range, against a long-run median of 1.6×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 5 August 2026.
Does Cincinnati Financial Corporation pay a dividend?
Yes — Cincinnati Financial Corporation declared $0.94 per share for Mar 26, and $3.55 per share across the last four reported quarters. The latest quarter is up 8.0% on the same quarter a year earlier. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is Cincinnati Financial Corporation's dividend per share?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation's most recently declared dividend is $0.94 per share for Mar 26, giving $3.55 per share over the trailing twelve months. Each figure is the amount declared for that quarter as reported, added across four quarters for the trailing total. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is Cincinnati Financial Corporation's dividend yield?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation's trailing dividend yield is 1.98%: $3.55 declared per share across the last four reported quarters, against a share price of $179. Each quarter’s figure is the amount declared for that quarter as reported, added across four quarters and divided by the latest close. — as of 5 August 2026.
Is Cincinnati Financial Corporation overvalued?
On its own history, Cincinnati Financial Corporation looks mid-range against its own history: its P/BV of 1.6× sits at the 60th percentile of its 5-year range (long-run median 1.6×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. — as of 5 August 2026.
How is Cincinnati Financial Corporation performing?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation is in a confirmed uptrend, 10 weeks in. Against the S&P 500 it has been ahead on a trailing-13-week view for 7 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 5 August 2026.
What stage is Cincinnati Financial Corporation in?
Turning around — profit growth swung from −30.6% at the trough to +90.3%, a 3-quarter improving streak, ROE lifting at 17.6%. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +17.9% latest, profit growth +90.3% latest, eps growth +90.8% latest) plus the ROE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 5 August 2026.
Is Cincinnati Financial Corporation in an uptrend?
Yes — the price is in a confirmed uptrend (week 10 of stage 2), trading +8.3% versus its 200-day average and at 69% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 5 August 2026.
Is Cincinnati Financial Corporation beating the market?
On recent form, yes — Cincinnati Financial Corporation has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 7 straight weeks, the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +137% against the S&P 500's +263% — behind the index over the full window. — as of 5 August 2026.
Will Cincinnati Financial Corporation's stock price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for Cincinnati Financial Corporation. What it measures instead: the stock price is $179, the price is in a confirmed uptrend 10 weeks in. Its P/BV of 1.6× sits at the 60th percentile of its own 5-year range. — as of 5 August 2026.
Is the market betting against Cincinnati Financial Corporation?
Somewhat — short interest is 2.3% of Cincinnati Financial Corporation's tradable float, about 3.4 days to cover at typical volumes. A moderate reading: some money is positioned against it. With no quarter-by-quarter holder register here, short interest is the cleanest crowd read we hold — as of 5 August 2026.
Is Cincinnati Financial Corporation's loan book healthy?
We do not hold quarterly loan-book quality numbers for Cincinnati Financial Corporation, so this page says that plainly. The cleanest available reads are revenue growth (+11.4% in FY25) and the net margin on it (9.4%) — as of 5 August 2026.
Where is Cincinnati Financial Corporation in its business cycle?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation's FY25 net margin was 18.9%, against a 5-year band of −7.5%–30.8%: mid-band by its own history — neither the peak that precedes mean-reversion nor the trough that precedes recovery. The latest quarter ran 9.4%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 5 August 2026.
What could break the Cincinnati Financial Corporation story?
Biggest watch item: the price is already 10 weeks into its uptrend — timing risk, not thesis risk. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 5 August 2026.
Is Cincinnati Financial Corporation a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: Cincinnati Financial Corporation's three tracks disagree. Price, valuation and the earnings engine each tell a different story — the next quarter or two settles it. The sharpest open question: the next one or two quarters of delivery. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 5 August 2026.