NCC Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

NCC Ltd trades at ₹141, in a downtrend and 85 weeks into that stage. That is −11.1% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 5% of a 52-week range of ₹137 to ₹212. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (14 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 85 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹141 it trades −11.1% versus its 200-day average and sits at 5% of its 52-week range (₹137–₹212).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +108% while the NIFTY 500 moved +267% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (14 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-19) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

NCC Ltd trades at 12.2× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 31% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 14.0×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 12.2× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 31% of the time, against a long-run median of 14.0× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −17.6% against a −32.5% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +12.4%/yr price move, ~+17.5%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−5.1 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +4.8%/yr price move, ~+17.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−12.4 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

The PEG ratio and its quarterly curve, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 9.5% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 13 June 2026 price, NCC Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 4.3% a year. Profit itself has compounded 24.3% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 12.2× P/E, the 31st percentile of its own 11-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is low against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 13 June 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

NCC Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — revenue, profit and EPS growth are shrinking while ROCE holds at 17.0% — falling growth against firm returns, so no single stage word fits yet. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

45.4/100 — rank 6 of 12 in Construction & Contracting · 76% evidence confidence

NCC Ltd scores 45.4 out of 100 against the 12 companies it is compared with in Construction & Contracting, ranking 6. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 11.2 + 15.6 + 11.7 + 6.9 = 45.4. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

NCC Ltd reported ₹5,812 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +12.2% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 8.1% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹20,823 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹21,456 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹20,823 Cr (−6.2% on the year), capping 10 years at 8.1% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹5,812 Cr, +12.2% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −1.9% growth against the decade's 8.1% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −1.8% over the last 4 quarters against −1.2%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit −12.1% vs −2.0%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

NCC Ltd's operating margin is 9.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 8.0% to 12.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 9.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 8.0%–12.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.6 pp year on year while gross margin went +2.5 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

NCC Ltd earned ₹229 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +11.7% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹724 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 24.3%. That is 3.9% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹205 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹229 Cr, +11.7% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹724 Cr (−16.6%), and the 10-year compound rate is 24.3%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +12.2% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −11.4% vs revenue −1.9%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 70% of NCC Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — most of the profit is real cash. In FY26 that was ₹−459 Cr of operating cash against ₹724 Cr of profit. After ₹955 Cr of capital spending, ₹−1,414 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹−459 Cr against reported profit of ₹724 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−1,414 Cr after ₹955 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 70% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 70%: the cash cycle tightened 25 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 2.3× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

NCC Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs −283 days in FY26, down from −258 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹1,545 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹20,823 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹57.0 Cr, so roughly ₹−16,145 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 66 days, inventory at 129 days — roughly 4.2 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of −283 days, tighter than FY21's −258.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 129 days to sell; customers pay about 66 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 478 days — netting out to the −283-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹20,823 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹57.0 Cr — so the −283-day loop keeps roughly ₹−16,145 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹1,545 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹663 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹351 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

NCC Ltd earns a ROCE of 17% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 8% in FY17. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 3.5% net margin on 0.80× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 17%, recovered from a FY17 trough of 8% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 3.5% net margin × 0.80× asset turns × 3.30× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 9.2% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 9.5% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

NCC Ltd carries ₹3,457 Cr of borrowings against ₹7,869 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.44. Operating profit covers the interest bill 3×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹2,062 Cr to ₹3,457 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹1,545 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹3,457 Cr against equity of ₹7,869 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.44. Operating profit covers the interest bill 3×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹2,062 Cr to ₹3,457 Cr while capital spending ran ₹1,545 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 9.5% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 12.4 points of NCC Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 11.3% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +6.5 points over the same window, to 17.9%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −12.4 points over 8 quarters to 11.3%; Domestic institutions: +6.5 points over 8 quarters to 17.9%; Promoters: +1.1 points over 8 quarters to 23.1%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −12.4 points against domestic institutions +6.5 points over 8 quarters, with promoters +1.1 points — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

NCC Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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