Modis Navnirman Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Modis Navnirman Ltd trades at ₹368, in a confirmed uptrend and 63 weeks into that stage. That is +5.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 68% of a 52-week range of ₹299 to ₹399. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 9 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 63 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹368 it trades +5.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 68% of its 52-week range (₹299–₹399).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 4.2 years the stock moved +639% while the NIFTY 500 moved +67% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 9 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Modis Navnirman Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 17 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: MID_CONTRACTION. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 19 July 2026.

Our read, 17 May 2026. A Mumbai micro-cap redeveloper delivering 84% revenue growth — but management guidance accuracy is among the worst seen this cycle.

From the numbers. PE at 81.8x vs median 77.4x — 63rd percentile, above median. PE compressed from Dec 2024 peak of 185.9x as EPS improved from the lumpy completion events. EARNINGS_DISCONNECT per cycle engine: EPS setup mixed because OPM…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 63 — above its 200-day line, relative strength rising.

From the research. A Mumbai micro-cap redeveloper delivering 84% revenue growth — but management guidance accuracy is among the worst seen this cycle.

🚨 Where they disagree. PE at 81.8x vs median 77.4x — 63rd percentile, above median. PE compressed from Dec 2024 peak of 185.9x as EPS improved from the lumpy completion events. EARNINGS_DISCONNECT per cycle engine: EPS setup mixed because OPM is volatile quarter to quarter. FII buying from 0% to 11.17% is a positive institutional signal but does not compress valuation from here. The cycle is MID_CONTRACTION — earnings need to sustain for multiple quarters to compress PE meaningfully. No margin of safety at current price.

What is proven. A Mumbai micro-cap redeveloper delivering 84% revenue growth — but management guidance accuracy is among the worst seen this cycle.

What is not proven yet. Zero measurable guidance items delivered accurately in FY26: revenue target missed by 85% (upward), EBITDA margin missed by 13pp (downward), Rashmi Signature delivery slipped, geographic strategy retracted mid-year.

🚨 Layer 1 read, 19 July 2026 — DROP. Fast-growing debt-free redeveloper, but the profit is not turning to cash and management has missed guidance four times. Modis grew revenue 84% to Rs 333 cr at 29.6% ROCE with no debt, yet its 3-year operating cash flow is negative (OCF/PAT -1.32) and it recorded 0 BEAT against 4 MISS on its own FY26 guidance, including EBITDA guided 22-25% versus 11.5% delivered. The growth is real but accrual-heavy and the guidance credibility is broken, so the story is strained.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. A single quarter of clearly POSITIVE operating cash flow as the Rashmi handovers convert (OCF turning positive), plus one guidance item actually HIT on the next call — that would show the accruals are real project timing and management can be trusted, moving it toward P1. Conversely, a fifth guidance miss or Icon/Avenue recognition slipping past Q3 FY27 confirms the strain.

The test written in advance. Management Guidance Credibility — 4 Consecutive Misses — Management Guidance Credibility — 4 Consecutive Misses Any FY27 guidance provided — verify against actuals within 1 quarter by the next result.

The test written in advance. Revenue Lumpiness and Quarterly OPM Volatility — Revenue Lumpiness and Quarterly OPM Volatility Quarterly OPM below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters by the next result.

The test written in advance. Promoter Stake Reduction — Promoter Stake Reduction Further promoter stake reduction below 60% by the next result.

What the company does. FY26 revenue Rs 333 Cr (+84% YoY) and PAT Rs 29 Cr (+252% YoY) driven by two project completions (Rashmi Vasudev + Celestial) and merger consolidation; six concurrent projects now in pipeline. Management has missed on all four measurable guidance items this cycle — revenue target by 85%, EBITDA margin target by 13pp, Rashmi Signature delivery by one quarter, and geographic strategy reversed mid-year. The NRI repatriation demand tailwind + debt-free model + premium ASP expansion to Khar (Rs 45-50K/sqft) could 2x the business by FY28 — but only if execution credibility improves.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. Each project completion unlocks 100% Ind-AS revenue recognition; two completions in FY26 drove 158% YoY Q4 revenue spike and 84% FY26 revenue growth. What proves it keeps working: Operating Leverage Inflection — Project Completion Velocity. It stops working if Any FY27 guidance provided — verify against actuals within 1 quarter.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. Blended ASP trajectory: current Rs 25-27K with near-completion projects targeting Rs 27-28K; strategic premium entry in Khar targeting Rs 45-50K (near 2x current portfolio). What proves it keeps working: ASP Expansion — Rs 25-27K → Rs 27-28K (flagship) → Rs 45-50K (Khar premium). It stops working if Any FY27 guidance provided — verify against actuals within 1 quarter.

Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. Geopolitical uncertainty (war) catalyzing NRI repatriation; Dubai diaspora purchasing flats for family safety — new and credible demand channel not previously modeled. What proves it keeps working: NRI Geopolitical Demand Tailwind. It stops working if Any FY27 guidance provided — verify against actuals within 1 quarter.

Lever 6 · Order-book wins — BUILDING. Rashmi Icon (Feb 2026, 4,500 sqm, GDV Rs 190-200 Cr) and Rashmi Avenue (Mar 2026, 4,900 sqm) cross the Ind-AS 25% cost threshold in Q3 FY27 — triggering revenue recognition for the first time. What proves it keeps working: Pipeline Expansion — Icon and Avenue Revenue Recognition Unlock (Q3 FY27). It stops working if Any FY27 guidance provided — verify against actuals within 1 quarter.

Sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Modis Navnirman Ltd reported ₹58.3 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +27.9% year on year. That is the 4th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 7 years it has compounded at 84.6% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹189 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹202 Cr.

Why this happened. Management cited specific examples: Dubai-based brothers purchasing two flats in Rashmi Avenue for family relocation. This is not a manufactured narrative — it aligns with broader India real estate demand data from NRI buyers in 2025-2026. The footfall pickup and Q4 booking conversion strength was partially attributed to this channel. Duration is uncertain — contingent on geopolitical resolution — but near-term demand is visible in the Q4 sales data.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹189 Cr (+83.5% on the year), capping 7 years at 84.6% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹58.3 Cr, +27.9% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +65.0% growth against the decade's 84.6% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +50.8% over the last 4 quarters against +43.3%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +55.0% vs +57.2%/yr — stabilising.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Modis Navnirman Ltd's operating margin is 19.2% in the Jun 26 quarter, −2.9 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 8 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 2.2% to 26.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. Mumbai redevelopment revenue recognition under Ind-AS is binary at project completion — once the occupation certificate is received, all pre-sold units can be recognized. FY26 saw two completions: Rashmi Vasudev (90 units, Borivali West) in Q3 FY26 and Rashmi Celestial (81 units + 23 commercial, LT Road) in Q4 FY26. These completions created the Q4 revenue spike of 158% YoY to Rs 51.49 Cr. With Rashmi Square (19 floors, GDV Rs 131 Cr) and Rashmi Signature (19 floors, GDV Rs 190-200 Cr) targeting completion in FY27, the revenue unlocking event-chain continues.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 19.2%, −2.9 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 8 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 2.2%–26.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −2.9 pp year on year while gross margin went −24.7 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Modis Navnirman Ltd earned ₹8.6 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +26.4% year on year. It is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹29.0 Cr. The 7-year compound rate is 99.6%. That is 14.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹6.8 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹8.6 Cr, +26.4% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹29.0 Cr (+26.1%), and the 7-year compound rate is 99.6%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +27.9% and the margin −2.9 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +77.8% vs revenue +65.0%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years −100% of Modis Navnirman Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹−2.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹29.0 Cr of profit. After ₹0.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹−2.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹−2.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹29.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−2.0 Cr after ₹0.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is −100% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at −100%: the cash cycle stretched 72 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 72 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Modis Navnirman Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 17 days in FY26, up from −55 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹1.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹189 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹0.5 Cr, so roughly ₹9.0 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 17 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 17 days, looser than FY21's −55.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹189 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹0.5 Cr — so the 17-day loop keeps roughly ₹9.0 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹1.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.⚠ unverified

Modis Navnirman Ltd earns a ROCE of 26% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 5% in FY24. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +7.3 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 15.3% net margin on 0.62× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 26%, recovered from a FY24 trough of 5% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 15.3% net margin × 0.62× asset turns × 1.94× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 18.4% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 19.3% − 12.0% = a +7.3 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every rupee reinvested creates more than a rupee of value — the engine compounds.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.⚠ unverified

Modis Navnirman Ltd carries total debt of ₹6.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹157 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.04 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 5.00 in FY22 to 0.04 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹6.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹157 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.04. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 5.00 (FY22) to 0.04 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions added 9.5 points of Modis Navnirman Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 9.5% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +1.4 points over the same window, to 1.4%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: +9.5 points over 8 quarters to 9.5%; Domestic institutions: +1.4 points over 8 quarters to 1.4%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 63.8%.

Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (+9.5 points), alongside domestic institutions (+1.4 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Modis Navnirman Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Modis Navnirman Ltd trades at 23.2× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 3% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 49.6×, measured across 4.2 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 23.2× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 3% of the time, against a long-run median of 49.6× measured over 4.2 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +26.2% against a +25.3% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +26.9%/yr price move, ~+63.6%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−36.7 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources do not share enough overlapping reported history to be compared. A figure nobody could check is not used to price growth — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 20 July 2026 price, Modis Navnirman Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 16.3% a year. Profit itself has compounded 99.6% a year over the past 7 years. Today the market pays 23.2× P/E, the 3rd percentile of its own 4-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is low against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 20 July 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Modis Navnirman Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE slipping at 26.0% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 10 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

71.0/100 — rank 2 of 12 in Construction & Contracting · 87% evidence confidence

Modis Navnirman Ltd scores 71.0 out of 100 against the 12 companies it is compared with in Construction & Contracting, ranking 2. Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 23.5 + 18.5 + 13.8 + 15.2 = 71. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Modis Navnirman Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Rashmi Signature handover target moved later · 10 August 2026. In May 2026, management explicitly targeted handover of Rashmi Signature in Q1 FY27. In Aug 2026, after the company was already reporting Q1 FY27, management said both Signature and Square would probably be handed over in the third quarter, indicating a material delay with no explanation for the revised timeline.

War-related margin impact was materially recharacterized · 10 August 2026. In May 2026, management described the war-related raw material impact as minor and attributed margin moderation primarily to project mix, execution and construction expenses. In Aug 2026, management instead said the major impact was because of the war, materially increasing the stated importance of the factor without reconciling the changed explanation.

Near-term expansion scope narrowed without explanation · 10 August 2026. Earlier calls described active interest in expanding beyond the core western suburbs, including southern Bombay and a potential township outside Bombay. In Aug 2026, management said it was not looking at any other city outside Maharashtra and would remain around Bombay for now, a meaningful narrowing of the previously discussed expansion opportunity set.

Significant Revenue Guidance Divergence · 18 May 2026. Management provided a full-year revenue target of 180 crore in the February 2026 call, which was less than two months before the end of the financial year. However, the latest call reports actual FY 2026 revenue of 333 crore, indicating a significant breakdown in management internal forecasting or guidance communication accuracy, even after accounting for the reported merger impact.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

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