Sector Alpha Week of 2026-09-11
Not SEBI Registered !! Not Investment advice !!
Sector Alpha — machine-written from the numbers · Data as of 2026-09-11

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd

TVSSCS
Logistics - Warehousing/Supply Chain

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's three tracks disagree. Price, valuation and the earnings engine each tell a different story — the next quarter or two settles it.

The sharpest disagreement: Domestic institutions moved −3.3 points over 8 quarters while the operating story went the other way — someone close to the numbers is not convinced.

The price is in a confirmed uptrend (13 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 71st percentile of its own 3-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read improving — profit −69.0% year on year, and 931% of the last 2 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether the register turns back in the story’s favour.

Price
₹130
−1.2% 1Y
P/E
81.2×
71st pctile
of its own 3-year range
Revenue (Jun 26)
₹3,335 Cr
+28.7% YoY
Profit (Jun 26)
₹22.0 Cr
−69.0% YoY
Operating margin
7.0%
flat YoY
ROCE
10%
FY26
ROIC
4.8%
vs WACC 12.0% → −7.2 pp
Cash conversion
931%
of profit, last 2 FY
01 · Price story

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd trades at ₹130, in a confirmed uptrend and 13 weeks into that stage. That is +4.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 77% of a 52-week range of ₹94 to ₹142. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (7 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 13 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹130 it trades +4.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 77% of its 52-week range (₹94–₹142).

Sep 26: ₹130 Weekly closing price (₹) with 50- and 200-day averages; shaded bands mark the price stage (grey base, green advance, amber top, red decline). 3-year window.
+4.7% versus the 200-day line, week 13 of stage 2
Price50-day avg200-day avg
S2S4S2S4S2₹242₹202₹162₹123₹83.0₹130₹125Sep 23Jun 24Mar 25Dec 25Sep 26
S2S4S2S4S2₹242₹202₹162₹123₹83.0₹130₹125Sep 23Mar 25Sep 26
Beating or trailing, week by week since 2023 Each cell is one week from 2023 to now (164 weeks): the stock's trailing 13-week return minus the NIFTY 500's, green ahead / red behind (±25% ramp). Grey cells are the 13-week warm-up or weeks where the NIFTY 500 reading is not held.
trailing 13-week return vs the NIFTY 500
Aug 23Sep 26

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 3.0 years the stock moved −34% while the NIFTY 500 moved +35% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (7 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-24) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

02 · Story check

Story check

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 27 June 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: Not stated in the research file. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 19 July 2026.

NOT YET CHECKED

Our read, 27 June 2026. TVS SCS completed a genuine ISCS margin turnaround in FY26, but the headline earnings quality is poor — the Jun 2025 quarter PAT was inflated by a one-time InVIT gain, so the trailing PE of 31x understates the true normalized multiple, which sits above 90x on mid-cycle margins.

What is proven. TVS SCS completed a genuine ISCS margin turnaround in FY26, but the headline earnings quality is poor — the Jun 2025 quarter PAT was inflated by a one-time InVIT gain, so the trailing PE of 31x understates the true normalized multiple, which sits above 90x on mid-cycle margins.

🚨 What would change our mind. If two consecutive quarters show ISCS EBITDA margin sustained above 9.5% with reported PAT growing entirely from operating profit — other income below 15 crore per quarter — and GFS EBITDA margin reaching 4% or above without requiring a freight rate windfall, the normalized PE concern would begin to compress and the thesis would turn constructive. Conversely, if ISCS order conversion rate drops below 20% for two consecutive quarters, or GFS margin stays below 3% through December 2026, the stock…

🚨 Layer 1 read, 19 July 2026 — DROP. Optically cheap PE is an InVIT-gain illusion — real normalized multiple is ~130x, so it ranks to the bottom. The 32x trailing PE looks compressed at the 11th percentile, but the Jun 2025 quarter's 71 cr PAT was 92% one-time InVIT other income and 13 of 14 recent quarters carry one-off flags, so on clean mid-cycle margins the multiple is ~130x EXPENSIVE. The ISCS margin turnaround is genuine (Q4 EBITDA 9.3%), but with a confirmed GFS-margin miss and a softened revenue guide and only one nameable driver, this is a value trap at these levels — kept only so the ranked cut, not a gate, removes it.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. Two consecutive quarters of ISCS EBITDA margin above 9.5% with reported PAT growing entirely from operating profit (other income below 15 cr/quarter) AND GFS EBITDA reaching 4%+ without a freight windfall — that would compress the normalized-PE concern and turn the thesis constructive.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: PAT of 71 crore — a breakthrough profitable quarter for TVSSCS The research reads it further: Of the 103 crore PBT, 95 crore was other income from a one-time TVS ILP InVIT transaction. Operating earnings for the quarter were approximately 8 crore PBT. The reported EPS of 1.6 is not a repeatable operating run-rate — the actual operating run-rate from Sep-Dec 2025 quarters was 0.24-0.35 EPS.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: Trailing PE of 31x at the 0th percentile of recent history reads as inexpensive on a cycle basis The research reads it further: The trailing PE is mechanically depressed by two factors: the June 2025 quarter InVIT one-off inflated the earnings base, and current operating margins of 7.2% are at the mid-point of the twelve-quarter range of 6.18% to 8.18% — not a trough. On normalized mid-cycle margins the PE is well above 90x.

Sources: our stock research file (27 June 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

03 · Revenue

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd reported ₹3,335 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +28.7% year on year. That is the 10th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 8 years it has compounded at 31.6% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹11,003 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹11,746 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹11,003 Cr (+10.1% on the year), capping 8 years at 31.6% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹3,335 Cr, +28.7% year on year — the 10th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

FY26 revenue ₹11,003 Cr (+10.1% YoY) Revenue bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 9-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
31.6% a year over 8 years
RevenueYoY growth
11.9k490%8.9k356%5.9k223%3.0k89%0−45%₹ Cr%₹11,00310.1%FY18FY22FY26
11.9k490%8.9k356%5.9k223%3.0k89%0−45%₹ Cr%₹11,00310.1%FY18FY22FY26
Jun 26: ₹3,335 Cr (+28.7% YoY) Quarterly revenue bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
10th straight quarter of growth
Revenue (quarterly)YoY growth
3.6k438%2.7k319%1.8k199%90080%0−39%₹ Cr%₹3,33528.7%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
3.6k438%2.7k319%1.8k199%90080%0−39%₹ Cr%₹3,33528.7%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +16.8% growth against the decade's 31.6% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +16.9% over the last 4 quarters against +11.5%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating.

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹3,032 Cr and profit ₹18 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹3,335 Cr and profit ₹22 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (27 June 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

04 · Operating margin

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's operating margin is 7.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 9 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 0.0% to 8.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. GFS segment revenue grew 11.4% in FY26 to 2,764 crore, with the fourth quarter up 34.8% year-on-year as India ocean freight volumes surged. The segment's path to the management-revised target of 5-6.5% EBITDA margin from 2.4% current requires external freight rate stabilization — rates remain structurally under pressure and management explicitly acknowledges pricing volatility. The margin upgrade from the prior steady-state guidance of 3.5-4% lacks a named operational driver beyond volume and rate recovery.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 7.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 9 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 0.0%–8.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −0.1 pp year on year while gross margin went −1.2 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

FY26: 7.0% Operating margin by fiscal year, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). 9-year window.
within a 0.0–8.0% band over 9 years
operating marginYoY change (pp)
8.6%9.0%6.3%5.5%4.0%2.0%1.7%−1.6%−0.6%−5.1%%%7%0%FY18FY22FY26
8.6%9.0%6.3%5.5%4.0%2.0%1.7%−1.6%−0.6%−5.1%%%7%0%FY18FY22FY26
Jun 26: 7.0% operating margin (+0.0 pp YoY) Quarterly operating margin, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). Last 12 quarters. Operating profit as a share of revenue, per quarter.
Operating marginYoY change (pp)
8.2%14%7.6%10.0%7.0%5.9%6.4%1.9%5.8%−2.1%%%7%0%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
8.2%14%7.6%10.0%7.0%5.9%6.4%1.9%5.8%−2.1%%%7%0%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹3,032 Cr and profit ₹18 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹3,335 Cr and profit ₹22 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (27 June 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

05 · Net profit

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd earned ₹22.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −69.0% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹117 Cr. The 8-year compound rate is 23.9%. That is 0.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹71.0 Cr. 3 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Jun 26 profit was ₹22.0 Cr, −69.0% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹117 Cr (null), and the 8-year compound rate is 23.9%.

FY26 profit ₹117 Cr (null YoY) Net profit bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 9-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
23.9% a year over 8 years
Net profitYoY growth
146−253%40−269%−66−286%−171−302%−277−319%₹ Cr%₹117−314.3%FY18FY22FY26
146−253%40−269%−66−286%−171−302%−277−319%₹ Cr%₹117−314.3%FY18FY22FY26
Jun 26: ₹22.0 Cr (−69.0% YoY) Quarterly net profit bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
Net profit (quarterly)YoY growth
801,015%47651%15287%−17−77%−50−440%₹ Cr%₹22−69%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
801,015%47651%15287%−17−77%−50−440%₹ Cr%₹22−69%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26

FY26-Q4. revenue ₹3,032 Cr and profit ₹18 Cr as reported.

FY27-Q1. revenue ₹3,335 Cr and profit ₹22 Cr as reported.

Why-sources: our stock research file (27 June 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

06 · Cash flow — the router

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 2 fiscal years 931% of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹746 Cr of operating cash against ₹117 Cr of profit. After ₹1,197 Cr of capital spending, ₹−451 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹746 Cr against reported profit of ₹117 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−451 Cr after ₹1,197 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 2 fiscal years the conversion rate is 931% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

FY26: CFO ₹746 Cr vs profit ₹117 Cr Operating cash flow and net profit by fiscal year, ₹ Cr; the line is free cash flow (CFO minus capital spending). 8-year window, annual resolution. FY19/FY24 reflects an acquisition year — point shown clipped.
931% of 2-year profit arrived as cash
Operating cashNet profitFree cash
842495148−200−547₹ Cr₹746₹117₹−451FY19FY22FY26
842495148−200−547₹ Cr₹746₹117₹−451FY19FY22FY26
FY26: CFO = 638% of profit (three-year rate 931%) Operating cash as a share of net profit, per fiscal year, % (line). Dashed line = 100% — every unit of profit arriving as cash; outlier years shown pinned.
Conversion100%
316%258%200%142%84%%300%FY19FY22FY26
316%258%200%142%84%%300%FY19FY22FY26

Why conversion sits at 931%: the cash cycle stretched 141 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

07 · Where the cash goes

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs −170 days in FY26, up from −311 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹2,214 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹11,003 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹30.1 Cr, so roughly ₹−5,125 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

Why this happened. TVS SCS expanded its Fortune 500 customer base from 91 to 100 customers in FY26. Average customer tenure in India is 4.1 years, with Europe at 7.5 years — metrics that support the switching-cost and long-term contract narrative. The Swami and Sons acquisition adds FMCG and consumption supply chain capability to India ISCS with management expecting margin-accretive contribution in FY27 on annualized revenue of 200 crore.

FY26: debtors at 55 days, inventory at 95 days — roughly 3.1 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of −170 days, looser than FY21's −311.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 95 days to sell; customers pay about 55 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 320 days — netting out to the −170-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹11,003 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹30.1 Cr — so the −170-day loop keeps roughly ₹−5,125 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

FY26: a −170-day cash cycle Debtor days, inventory days, payable days and the cash conversion cycle by fiscal year. 9-year window.
+141 days vs FY21
Cash cycleInventory daysDebtor daysPayable days
52630175−151−376days−170d95d55d320dFY18FY20FY22FY24FY26
52630175−151−376days−170d95d55d320dFY18FY22FY26

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹2,214 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹1,671 Cr of depreciation — building somewhat ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹15.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

FY26: capex ₹1,197 Cr, work-in-progress ₹15.0 Cr Capital spending per fiscal year, ₹ Cr (bars); capital work-in-progress, ₹ Cr (line). Quarterly capital-spending history is not held for India — annual is the honest resolution.
steady investment
CapexWork-in-progress
2.4k1.8k1.2k6080₹ Cr₹1,197₹15FY19FY20FY22FY24FY26
2.4k1.8k1.2k6080₹ Cr₹1,197₹15FY19FY22FY26

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

08 · Return on capital

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd earns a ROCE of 10% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 0% in FY20. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −7.2 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 1.1% net margin on 1.54× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 10%, recovered from a FY20 trough of 0% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 1.1% net margin × 1.54× asset turns × 3.51× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 5.9% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 4.8% − 12.0% = a −7.2 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

FY26: ROCE 10% Return on capital employed by fiscal year, % (line); ROIC by fiscal year, % (line). 8-year window, dips included. Dashed line = the 12.0% cost of capital used on this page.
the climb back from FY20's 0%
ROCEROIC (annual)WACC
15%4.7%−5.4%−15%−26%%10%4.8%FY19FY22FY26
15%4.7%−5.4%−15%−26%%10%4.8%FY19FY22FY26
Q4 FY26: ROCE 7.3% (TTM) vs WACC 12.0% Trailing-twelve-month ROCE and ROIC, per quarter, %; dashed line = the cost of capital. Last 12 quarters, put on a trailing-twelve-month basis and anchored to the annual figure.
ROCE (TTM)ROIC (TTM)WACC
13%9.7%6.5%3.2%0.0%%7.3%3%Q3 FY23Q2 FY25Q4 FY26
13%9.7%6.5%3.2%0.0%%7.3%3%Q3 FY23Q2 FY25Q4 FY26
09 · Debt

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd carries total debt of ₹2,755 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹2,062 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 1.34. On the annual view that ratio went from 3.92 in FY22 to 1.34 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Why this happened. The ISCS segment delivered revenue of 8,239 crore in FY26 (up 9.6%) with EBITDA margin expanding to 9.3% from 8.5%. Project One in Europe delivered 50-60 crore in in-year FY26 savings, and the full 110-120 crore annualized benefit flows through in FY27. The second North America facility went live in the fourth quarter of FY26, with management targeting account-level revenue of 50-60 million dollars per large engagement. The conversion rate on the 6,100 crore order pipeline — currently at 22% historically with a 25% target — is the specific execution lever management identified to unlock 18-20% ISCS segment growth.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹2,755 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹2,062 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 1.34. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 3.92 (FY22) to 1.34 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

FY26: debt ₹2,755 Cr at 1.34× equity Total debt by fiscal year, ₹ Cr (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). 5-year window.
Total debtDebt-to-equity
3.6k4.6×2.7k3.7×1.8k2.8×8971.8×00.9×₹ Cr×₹2,7551.34×FY22FY24FY26
3.6k4.6×2.7k3.7×1.8k2.8×8971.8×00.9×₹ Cr×₹2,7551.34×FY22FY24FY26
Mar 26: debt ₹2,755 Cr, debt-to-equity 1.34 Total debt per quarter, ₹ Cr (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). Last 12 quarters. India reports the full balance sheet half-yearly, so the intervening quarter carries the prior reading forward.
Total debt (quarterly)Debt-to-equity
3.6k4.6×2.7k3.7×1.8k2.7×8971.8×00.9×₹ Cr×₹2,7551.34×Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
3.6k4.6×2.7k3.7×1.8k2.7×8971.8×00.9×₹ Cr×₹2,7551.34×Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
10 · Ownership

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions cut 3.3 points of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 2.2% of the company. Foreign institutions moved +2.1 points over the same window, to 2.4%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: −3.3 points over 8 quarters to 2.2%; Foreign institutions: +2.1 points over 8 quarters to 2.4%; Promoters: −0.1 points over 8 quarters to 43.0%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions +2.1 points against domestic institutions −3.3 points over 8 quarters, with promoters holding steady — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Fiscal-year ends: promoters −0.1 pts from Mar 24 to Mar 26 Shareholding at each fiscal-year end (March quarter), % of the company. 3 year-ends held.
PromotersForeign inst.Domestic inst.Public
56%41%26%11%−3.9%%43.0%2.5%2.2%52.3%Mar 24Mar 25Mar 26
56%41%26%11%−3.9%%43.0%2.5%2.2%52.3%Mar 24Mar 25Mar 26
Domestic institutions cut 3.3 points over 8 quarters Shareholding by holder class, % of the company, quarterly, last 12 quarters.
PromotersForeign inst.Domestic inst.Public
57%41%26%11%−3.9%%43.0%2.4%2.2%52.4%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
57%41%26%11%−3.9%%43.0%2.4%2.2%52.4%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
11 · Safety line

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

12 · Valuation

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd trades at 81.2× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (71st percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 42.5×, measured across 3.0 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 81.2× is at the pricey end of its own range (71st percentile), against a long-run median of 42.5× measured over 3.0 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

P/E 81.2× vs a 42.5× long-run median P/E, weekly (left axis); earnings per share, trailing twelve months, weekly (right axis). 3.0-year window; loss-period spikes above 128× shown pinned at the top. The eps (ttm) bars are red where the reading is lower than the quarter before.
at the pricey end of its own range (71st percentile)
P/EMedianEPS (TTM) (quarterly)
135.6×₹4.5106.4×₹3.377.2×₹2.247.9×₹1.118.7×₹0.0×81.00×₹2Aug 23Feb 25Jan 26May 26Sep 26
135.6×₹4.5106.4×₹3.377.2×₹2.247.9×₹1.118.7×₹0.0×81.00×₹2Aug 23Jan 26Sep 26
PEG 3.42 PEG ratio per quarter — the P/E divided by the earnings-growth rate. The dashed line marks 1.0: below it the growth is cheap against the multiple, above it the price already prices the growth in. Last 10 quarters.
above 1.0, the multiple already banks the growth
PEGPEG = 1.0
3.6×2.9×2.2×1.5×0.8××3.42×Q3 FY24Q1 FY25Q3 FY25Q1 FY26Q4 FY26
3.6×2.9×2.2×1.5×0.8××3.42×Q3 FY24Q3 FY25Q4 FY26
P/E
81.2×
71st percentile of 3y
PEG
n/m
not derivable — 3-year earnings growth unavailable

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the −17.3%/yr price move, ~+16.8%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−34.1 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

13 · What the price assumes

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 20 July 2026 price, TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 28.5% a year. Profit itself has compounded 23.9% a year over the past 8 years. Today the market pays 81.2× P/E, the 71st percentile of its own 3-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is close to what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 20 July 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

14 · Stage: No read

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 12 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.

Growth, year by year: revenue +10.1% in FY26 Year-over-year growth per fiscal year, %: revenue (left axis); net profit and EPS (right axis — profit growth swings far wider). Zero line drawn. Turnaround-year spikes shown pinned (▲).
Revenue YoYProfit YoYEPS YoY
490%−152%356%−192%223%−232%89%−271%−45%−311%%%10.1%−300%FY18FY22FY26
490%−152%356%−192%223%−232%89%−271%−45%−311%%%10.1%−300%FY18FY22FY26
Three growth curves, twelve quarters Year-on-year growth of trailing-twelve-month revenue (left axis), profit and EPS (right axis — they swing far wider), % at each quarter-end. Where the trailing-twelve-month history is short, the curve falls back to single-quarter year-on-year growth — noisier, and the classifier smooths and caps base-effect spikes before reading. Base-effect spikes shown pinned (▲). A missing point means that reading is not held for the quarter.
the trajectory the stage is read from · revenue accelerating
RevenueProfitEPS
29%348%23%174%16%0.0%9.6%−174%3.1%−348%%%16.9%−69%28.1%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
29%348%23%174%16%0.0%9.6%−174%3.1%−348%%%16.9%−69%28.1%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
ROCE Trailing-twelve-month operating profit (before interest and tax) as a share of average capital employed — total assets minus current liabilities, the standard textbook basis, %.
the return curve, computed quarterly
ROCE
6.9%6.7%6.4%6.2%6.0%%6.5%Sep 23Mar 24Dec 24Sep 25Jun 26
6.9%6.7%6.4%6.2%6.0%%6.5%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
Revenue growth
Rising
latest +16.9% · span +4.9% to +27.2%
ROCE
Stuck low
latest 6.5% · span 6.1%–6.8%

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

Compound annual growth rate (%) Compound annual growth rate over each window, %. Revenue, profit and EPS from fiscal-year figures; share price is the price CAGR over the same spans. A dash = that window is not held, or the base was a loss.
1yr3yr5yr10yr
Revenue+10.1%+3.3%+9.7%
Profit+40.7%
EPS+33.4%
Share price−1.2%−17.3%
Revenue YoY (Jun 26)
+28.7%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Profit YoY (Jun 26)
−69.0%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Revenue 10y
31.6%
long-run compound pace
15 · 4-Factor Sector Score

4-Factor Sector Score

50.4/100 — rank 5 of 8 in Logistics - Warehousing/Supply Chain · 77% evidence confidence

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd scores 50.4 out of 100 against the 8 companies it is compared with in Logistics - Warehousing/Supply Chain, ranking 5. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 21 + 10 + 9.8 + 9.6 = 50.4. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

16 · Said versus delivered

Said versus delivered

What TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

4% PBT commitment shifted to FY28 · 11 August 2026. Management's confidence in the 4% PBT objective has weakened in the latest call. In Feb 2026, it described the objective as firmly aligned across the leadership team, whereas in Aug 2026 it made achieving 4% by the end of the current year only an aspiration and moved its definite commitment to FY28. The latest call cited geopolitical factors and the need to improve GFS margins, but did not reconcile this materially softer timing with the prior level of confidence.

GFS Margin Target Revision · 26 May 2026. In the Nov 2025 call, management stated that the steady-state, sustainable EBITDA margin for the Global Forwarding Solutions (GFS) segment was between 3.5% and 4%, noting this was the historical standard they had achieved in the past. However, in the May 2026 call, management shifted this expected baseline significantly upward, stating they expect to move GFS margins to 5% or 6.5% over the next several quarters. They did not provide a clear operational justification for this elevated structural margin target amidst their own acknowledgment of ongoing freight rate uncertainty and pricing pressures.

🚨 GFS Margin Recovery Delayed · 11 February 2026. Management previously guided in August 2025 that Global Forwarding Solutions (GFS) margins would return to the 3-3.5% range within '1 or 2 quarters' (implying recovery by Q3 FY26). In the latest call, margins remained depressed at 2.3%, and management has pushed the recovery timeline out to FY27, failing to meet the near-term guidance previously set. Earlier call (Aug 2025): “Probably in 1 or 2 quarters, it will return to some kind of a normalcy... and we”. Later call (Feb 2026): “GFS delivered... adjusted EBITDA of 17.3 crores at a 2.3% margin... we think FY27 will provide a clear opportunity to double down on GFS.”

🚨 Revenue Growth Guidance Downgrade · 11 February 2026. In the prior two calls, management explicitly targeted and guided for 'mid-teen' revenue growth (typically 14-16%). The latest call reports only 11.1% growth, and the forward-looking narrative has been softened to 'double-digit' growth without acknowledging the miss against the earlier 'mid-teen' target. Earlier call (Nov 2025): “If you look at what we are targeting, it”. Later call (Feb 2026): “Our consolidated revenue grew 11.1% year-on-year... We continue to push very hard for double-digit growth.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

17 · Related companies · Logistics - Warehousing/Supply Chain
CompanyScorePrice stageGrowth & earnings/35Capital efficiency/25Valuation/20Relative strength/20
1VRL Logistics LtdVRLLOG 80.2/100Sector-leading setup100% evidence BREAKING OUT 22.3/35 Revenue 5.6% · PAT 22.4% · OPM change 1 pp 100% evidence 20.7/25 ROCE 18.3% · OPM 21% 100% evidence 19.5/20 P/E 18.9× · PEG 0.6 100% evidence 17.7/20 RS sector 6.3% · RS bench 10.9% · 1Y 9.2%5 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 22.3 + 20.7 + 19.5 + 17.7 = 80.2 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
2Allcargo Logistics LtdALLCARGO 56.6/100Mixed-positive evidence72% evidence BREAKING OUT 16.2/35 Revenue 5.3% · PAT 87.5% · OPM change 3 pp 71% evidence 10.2/25 ROCE 4.8% · OPM 13% 95% evidence 10.2/20 P/E 39.6× · PEG — 15% evidence 20.0/20 RS sector 17.7% · RS bench 22.5% · 1Y 10.8%5 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 16.2 + 10.2 + 10.2 + 20 = 56.6 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 22.5%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.
3Navkar Corporation LtdNAVKARCORP 52.7/100Mixed-positive evidence81% evidence ASLEEP 31.2/35 Revenue 46% · PAT 100% · OPM change 2 pp 95% evidence 8.1/25 ROCE 3.1% · OPM 17% 95% evidence 7.8/20 P/E 35.2× · PEG — 50% evidence 5.6/20 RS sector -10.7% · RS bench -6.8% · 1Y -19.1%1 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 31.2 + 8.1 + 7.8 + 5.6 = 52.7 · Decision use: Acceleration candidate, not a confirmed leader: earnings are strong but sector-relative strength is -10.7% and the one-year return is -19.1%. Do not upgrade until sector-relative strength is above zero and another reported period confirms growth.
4Mahindra Logistics LtdMAHLOG 50.7/100Mixed-positive evidence67% evidence BREAKING OUT 19.3/35 Revenue 16.9% · PAT 100% · OPM change 1.3 pp 71% evidence 7.7/25 ROCE 7.4% · OPM 6% 76% evidence 9.4/20 P/E 100× · PEG — 15% evidence 14.3/20 RS sector 5.6% · RS bench 10.2% · 1Y 23.9%6 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 19.3 + 7.7 + 9.4 + 14.3 = 50.7 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
5TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltdthis pageTVSSCS 50.4/100Mixed-positive evidence77% evidence FADING 21.0/35 Revenue 16.9% · PAT 24.1% · OPM change 0 pp 100% evidence 10.0/25 ROCE 10.1% · OPM 7% 100% evidence 9.8/20 P/E 81.2× · PEG — 15% evidence 9.6/20 RS sector -5% · RS bench 10.7% · 1Y -0.7%6 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 21 + 10 + 9.8 + 9.6 = 50.4 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
6TCI Express LtdTCIEXP 40.5/100Mixed-negative evidence81% evidence FADING 8.8/35 Revenue 5.2% · PAT 0% · OPM change 0 pp 95% evidence 13.8/25 ROCE 13.8% · OPM 10% 95% evidence 13.6/20 P/E 23.6× · PEG — 50% evidence 4.3/20 RS sector -14% · RS bench -7.9% · 1Y -28.7%5 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 8.8 + 13.8 + 13.6 + 4.3 = 40.5 · Decision use: Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity.
7Snowman Logistics LtdSNOWMAN 35.8/100Mixed-negative evidence80% evidence BASING 13.3/35 Revenue 7.7% · PAT -17.6% · OPM change 1.1 pp 95% evidence 12.3/25 ROCE 3.8% · OPM 16.1% 95% evidence 8.9/20 P/E 255× · PEG — 15% evidence 1.3/20 RS sector -14.6% · RS bench -11.1% · 1Y -32.4%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 13.3 + 12.3 + 8.9 + 1.3 = 35.8 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
8Delhivery LtdDELHIVERY 23.4/100Adverse evidence93% evidence TURNING 11.8/35 Revenue 23.1% · PAT -52.8% · OPM change -1.2 pp 100% evidence 2.4/25 ROCE 1% · OPM 4.8% 100% evidence 3.5/20 P/E 276× · PEG 3.8 65% evidence 5.7/20 RS sector -4.6% · RS bench -0.4% · 1Y -6.3%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 11.8 + 2.4 + 3.5 + 5.7 = 23.4 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

Missing observations are not scored as bad. Their missing weight lowers confidence and pulls the final score toward neutral. PEG is not shown when the ratio cannot mean anything: the company must be making a profit, its price-to-earnings must be positive, and its three-year earnings growth must fall between 5% and 60%. Dividing a price multiple by a loss, or by growth measured off a tiny base, produces a number that looks precise and tells you nothing. Under relative strength, one mark per week shows the last 12 weeks: a mark is filled where the company led NIFTY 500 by 5% or more over the 13 weeks ending that week, which is the same test used everywhere on this site. Price stage places the company on the same six-step curve the sector itself is placed on — basing, turning, breaking out, leader, fading, asleep — read from how many weeks running it has led NIFTY 500 and whether that lead is widening or shrinking. It describes where the PRICE stands, not the earnings trajectory and not a recommendation, and it is left blank for a company whose weekly history is too short or too stale to read.

18 · Frequently asked questions

Frequently asked questions

What is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's share price today?

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd trades at ₹130, −1.2% over the past year. The company is valued at ₹5,758 Cr. The stock sits at 77% of its 52-week range of ₹94–₹142, +4.7% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a confirmed uptrend, 13 weeks in. — as of 11 September 2026.

What were TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's latest quarterly results?

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd reported revenue of ₹3,335 Cr and net profit of ₹22.0 Cr for the Jun 26 quarter. Revenue rose 28.7% and profit fell 69.0% year on year. Earnings per share were ₹0.47. The operating margin was 7.0%, 0.0 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 11 September 2026.

What is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's revenue?

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd reported revenue of ₹3,335 Cr in the Jun 26 quarter, +28.7% year on year. For the full FY26 fiscal year, revenue was ₹11,003 Cr (+10.1%). Over the last 8 years revenue compounded at 31.6% a year. — as of 11 September 2026.

What is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's profit?

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd earned ₹22.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −69.0% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹117 Cr. The operating margin ran 7.0% in the latest quarter. — as of 11 September 2026.

What is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's market cap?

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's market capitalisation is ₹5,758 Cr at a share price of ₹130. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 11 September 2026.

What is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's P/E ratio?

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd trades at a P/E of 81.2×, at the 71st percentile of its own 3-year range, against a long-run median of 42.5×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 11 September 2026.

Does TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd pay a dividend?

No — TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd has recorded a dividend payout of 0% of profit in each of its last 9 reported fiscal years, so there is no payout history to quote. That is a reading of the filed annual statements, not an estimate. — as of 11 September 2026.

Is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd overvalued?

On its own history, TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd looks expensive: its P/E of 81.2× sits at the 71st percentile of its 3-year range (long-run median 42.5×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. — as of 11 September 2026.

Is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd growing?

Yes — TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd is growing: latest-quarter revenue +28.7% year on year, profit −69.0%, and the margin +0.0 pp at 7.0%. The 8-year compound rates are 31.6% (revenue) and 23.9% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 11 September 2026.

How is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd performing?

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd is in a confirmed uptrend, 13 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 28.7% and profit fell 69.0% year on year. Against the NIFTY 500 it has been behind on a trailing-13-week view for 7 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 11 September 2026.

Is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd in an uptrend?

Yes — the price is in a confirmed uptrend (week 13 of stage 2), trading +4.7% versus its 200-day average and at 77% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 11 September 2026.

Is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd beating the market?

Not lately — on a trailing-13-week view TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd is currently behind the NIFTY 500 (7 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-24), the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 3.0 years the stock moved −34% against the NIFTY 500's +35% — behind the index over the full window. — as of 11 September 2026.

Will TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's share price go up?

This page publishes no price forecast for TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd. What it measures instead: the share price is ₹130, the price is in a confirmed uptrend 13 weeks in. Its P/E of 81.2× sits at the 71st percentile of its own 3-year range. — as of 11 September 2026.

Who owns TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd?

Promoters hold 43.0% of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd, foreign institutions 2.4%, domestic institutions 2.2% and the public 52.4% (latest quarter). The biggest move on the register over the last two years: Domestic institutions cut 3.3 points over 8 quarters. — as of 11 September 2026.

Does TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd have too much debt?

It carries real leverage — TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's debt-to-equity is 1.36, and operating profit covers the interest bill 5×. FY26 borrowings were ₹2,755 Cr against equity of ₹2,033 Cr. Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind — as of 11 September 2026.

What is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's capex?

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd spent ₹2,214 Cr on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY26 alone that was ₹1,197 Cr, with ₹15.0 Cr in capital work-in-progress — capacity paid for but not yet earning. — as of 11 September 2026.

What is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's cash flow?

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd generated ₹746 Cr of operating cash flow in FY26 and ₹−451 Cr of free cash flow after ₹1,197 Cr of capital spending. Reported profit that year was ₹117 Cr, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. Cash-flow resolution for India is annual. — as of 11 September 2026.

Is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's profit real cash?

Yes — over the last 2 fiscal years, 931% of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash. Though the latest year ran at 638% — the trend is the thing to watch. In FY26, operating cash was ₹746 Cr against reported profit of ₹117 Cr. The cash then goes into a mix of the working-capital cycle and capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 11 September 2026.

Where is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd in its business cycle?

TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's FY26 operating margin was 7.0%, against a 9-year band of 0.0%–8.0%: mid-band by its own history — neither the peak that precedes mean-reversion nor the trough that precedes recovery. The latest quarter ran 7.0%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 11 September 2026.

What growth does TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's price assume?

At its price on 20 July 2026, TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd was priced for profit growth of about 28.5% a year. Profit itself has compounded 23.9% a year over the past 8 years. The figure reads the multiple backwards: the growth a buyer at that price was already paying for. — as of 11 September 2026.

What could break the TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd story?

The sharpest disagreement: Domestic institutions moved −3.3 points over 8 quarters while the operating story went the other way — someone close to the numbers is not convinced. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 11 September 2026.

Is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd a stock worth studying right now?

This is not investment advice. The machine read: TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd's three tracks disagree. Price, valuation and the earnings engine each tell a different story — the next quarter or two settles it. The sharpest open question: whether the register turns back in the story’s favour. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 11 September 2026.

Sector Alpha — machine-written from the numbers · Data as of 2026-09-11. Every chart on this page is drawn by deterministic code from the raw series — no forecasts, no price opinions, and nothing here is investment advice.

Not SEBI Registered !! Not Investment advice !!

Chat with this pageChat with pageChatChatGPTClaudePerplexityGoogle AI