Delhivery Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Delhivery Ltd trades at ₹439, in a confirmed uptrend and 26 weeks into that stage. That is −2.3% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 39% of a 52-week range of ₹387 to ₹520. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (2 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 26 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹439 it trades −2.3% versus its 200-day average and sits at 39% of its 52-week range (₹387–₹520).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 4.3 years the stock moved −19% while the NIFTY 500 moved +62% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (2 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-08-28) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Delhivery Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 17 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: EARLY_PROFIT_INFLECTION. Still open: PE near 200 and ROE below 2% leave little room for a margin or growth disappointment.

Our read, 17 May 2026. Delhivery has crossed from recovery to operating-leverage compounding, but the stock already discounts a long runway at roughly 200x trailing earnings.

From the numbers. The operating cycle is improving faster than the valuation cycle is de-risking. The PE/PB cycle payload classifies the stock as MODERATE/FALLING_KNIFE with current PE at the median, percentile 43, mixed QoQ momentum and…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 26 — below its 200-day line, relative strength falling.

From the research. Delhivery has crossed from recovery to operating-leverage compounding, but the stock already discounts a long runway at roughly 200x trailing earnings.

🚨 Where they disagree. The operating cycle is improving faster than the valuation cycle is de-risking. The PE/PB cycle payload classifies the stock as MODERATE/FALLING_KNIFE with current PE at the median, percentile 43, mixed QoQ momentum and FII selling. This makes the setup a quality-of-execution bet rather than a classic valuation-reversion bet.

What is proven. Delhivery has crossed from recovery to operating-leverage compounding, but the stock already discounts a long runway at roughly 200x trailing earnings.

What is not proven yet. PE near 200 and ROE below 2% leave little room for a margin or growth disappointment.

The test written in advance. Valuation ahead of current profitability — Valuation ahead of current profitability TTM PAT growth and ROE progression versus PE compression by the next result.

The test written in advance. Fuel and labor cost inflation — Fuel and labor cost inflation PTL gross margin and transport adjusted EBITDA margin after fuel-price changes by the next result.

The test written in advance. Management guidance volatility — Management guidance volatility Whether Q1-Q2 FY27 new-business losses stay within the Rs 130-160 crore annual investment envelope by the next result.

What the company does. FY26 revenue rose to Rs 10,508 crore while operating profit expanded to Rs 640 crore, lifting full-year OPM to 6% from 4% in FY25. The latest Tijori call highlights FY26 free cash flow of Rs 89 crore, 1 billion Express parcels, 2 million PTL tons, and ROIC improving to 16%. The forward case rests on Express holding 16-18% EBITDA margins, PTL moving toward 18%, SCS staying profitable, and capex intensity declining toward 4%; the counterweight is fuel, labor, customer concentration, and a very high PE base.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. FY26 revenue grew while OPM moved to 6%, and Tijori's latest call summary says free cash flow turned positive at Rs 89 crore. What proves it keeps working: Operating leverage and FCF inflection. It stops working if TTM PAT growth and ROE progression versus PE compression.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. Express delivered 1 billion FY26 parcels and the latest call still anchors normalized EBITDA margin in the 16-18% range. What proves it keeps working: Express share gain with margin band intact. It stops working if TTM PAT growth and ROE progression versus PE compression.

Lever 3 · Management change — BUILDING. PTL reached 2 million FY26 tons and management sees a path from 13-14% adjusted EBITDA margin toward 18%. What proves it keeps working: PTL margin expansion. It stops working if TTM PAT growth and ROE progression versus PE compression.

Lever 4 · Paying down debt — BUILDING. Supply Chain Solutions moved to a 10.9% FY26 service EBITDA margin after exiting weak contracts. What proves it keeps working: SCS profitability reset. It stops working if TTM PAT growth and ROE progression versus PE compression.

Sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Delhivery Ltd reported ₹2,931 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +27.8% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 7 years it has compounded at 30.2% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹10,508 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹11,145 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹10,508 Cr (+17.6% on the year), capping 7 years at 30.2% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹2,931 Cr, +27.8% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +23.1% growth against the decade's 30.2% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +23.1% over the last 4 quarters against +15.3%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating.

FY26-Q4. Record volumes and profit inflection, but overhead explanations changed

FY27-Q1. FCF positive, 1 billion Express parcels, ROIC step-up

Why-sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Delhivery Ltd's operating margin is 4.8% in the Jun 26 quarter, −1.2 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 8 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −98.0% to 6.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. The most important shift is that incremental network utilization is now showing up in operating profit and cash flow. The Mar-2026 quarter printed Rs 2,850 crore revenue and Rs 214 crore operating profit, while the latest management summary cites FCF positivity one year ahead of plan. This supports a multi-quarter thesis if capex intensity continues to fall and overheads scale down.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 4.8%, −1.2 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 8 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −98.0%–6.0%, and FY26's 6.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −1.4 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.0 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

FY26-Q4. Record volumes and profit inflection, but overhead explanations changed

FY27-Q1. FCF positive, 1 billion Express parcels, ROIC step-up

Why-sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Delhivery Ltd earned ₹32.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −64.8% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹153 Cr. That is 1.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹91.0 Cr. 3 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Jun 26 profit was ₹32.0 Cr, −64.8% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹153 Cr (−5.6%).

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +27.8% and the margin −1.2 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −151.5% vs revenue +23.1%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

FY26-Q4. Record volumes and profit inflection, but overhead explanations changed

FY27-Q1. FCF positive, 1 billion Express parcels, ROIC step-up

Why-sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 2 fiscal years 469% of Delhivery Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹911 Cr of operating cash against ₹153 Cr of profit. After ₹2,208 Cr of capital spending, ₹−1,297 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹911 Cr against reported profit of ₹153 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−1,297 Cr after ₹2,208 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 2 fiscal years the conversion rate is 469% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 469%: the cash cycle tightened 12 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 2.2× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Delhivery Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 48 days in FY26, down from 60 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹4,367 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹10,508 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹28.8 Cr, so roughly ₹1,382 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 48 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 48 days, tighter than FY21's 60.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹10,508 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹28.8 Cr — so the 48-day loop keeps roughly ₹1,382 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹4,367 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹1,952 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹1.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Delhivery Ltd earns a ROCE of 1% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −17% in FY22. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −13.2 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 1.5% net margin on 0.82× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 1%, recovered from a FY22 trough of −17% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 1.5% net margin × 0.82× asset turns × 1.32× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 1.6% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: −1.2% − 12.0% = a −13.2 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Delhivery Ltd carries total debt of ₹1,463 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹9,687 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.15 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.18 in FY22 to 0.15 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Why this happened. SCS has changed from a growth-at-any-cost business into a selective profitability lever. The latest call summary says FY26 SCS revenue was Rs 729 crore with service EBITDA of Rs 79 crore and a 10.9% margin. If new mandates meet internal hurdle rates, SCS can add earnings without consuming disproportionate capital.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹1,463 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹9,687 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.15. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.18 (FY22) to 0.15 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 21.0 points of Delhivery Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 43.1% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −19.2 points over the same window, to 41.9%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

Why this happened. PTL reached 2 million FY26 tons and management sees a path from 13-14% adjusted EBITDA margin toward 18%.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +21.0 points over 8 quarters to 43.1%; Foreign institutions: −19.2 points over 8 quarters to 41.9%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −19.2 points against domestic institutions +21.0 points over 8 quarters — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Delhivery Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Delhivery Ltd trades at 276.0× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (71st percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 196.1×, measured across 1.8 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 276.0× is at the pricey end of its own range (71st percentile), against a long-run median of 196.1× measured over 1.8 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −6.0% against a −6.2% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Delhivery Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 12 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

4-Factor Sector Score

23.4/100 — rank 8 of 8 in Logistics - Warehousing/Supply Chain · 93% evidence confidence

Delhivery Ltd scores 23.4 out of 100 against the 8 companies it is compared with in Logistics - Warehousing/Supply Chain, ranking 8. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 11.8 + 2.4 + 3.5 + 5.7 = 23.4. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Delhivery Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Express Volume Guidance Raised · 8 August 2026. In Jan 2026, management indicated that 15-20% Express volume growth was an acceptable outlook. In Aug 2026, management referred to a materially higher 20-30% range and said performance was tracking toward its upper end, without clearly reconciling the change with the prior outlook.

Quick-Commerce Strategy Reversed · 8 August 2026. In Jan 2026, management expected some expansion of its dark-store or dark-fulfillment network during Q1 and Q2 of FY27. In Aug 2026, management stated that it does not run dark stores for quick-commerce players, representing a material change in the planned scope of participation and capital allocation; although the latest call provided an economic rationale, it did not explain the reversal from the prior build-out plan.

FY27 New-Initiative Investment Range Increased · 8 August 2026. In May 2026, management expected FY27 investment in the new initiatives to be approximately 130-160 crores. In Aug 2026, management referred to an earmarked amount of approximately 160-175 crores, raising both the lower and upper ends of the stated range without reconciling the change, despite also saying that improved contribution margins should reduce investment needs.

Free Cash Flow Breakeven Threshold · 16 May 2026. During the Jan 2026 call, the CFO explicitly stated that a 6% Adjusted EBITDA margin was required to achieve free cash flow breakeven based on capex and working capital math. However, in the May 2026 call, management reported turning free cash flow positive for FY26 despite a full-year Adjusted EBITDA margin of only 4.4%.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions