Tata Elxsi Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Tata Elxsi Ltd trades at ₹3,383, in a downtrend and 58 weeks into that stage. That is −21.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 0% of a 52-week range of ₹3,383 to ₹5,691. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (37 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 58 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹3,383 it trades −21.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 0% of its 52-week range (₹3,383–₹5,691).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +247% while the NIFTY 500 moved +267% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (37 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-02-06) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Tata Elxsi Ltd trades at 29.9× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 32% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 46.2×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 29.9× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 32% of the time, against a long-run median of 46.2× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −20.0% against a −40.9% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the −7.3%/yr price move, ~+11.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−18.6 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +16.0%/yr price move, ~+15.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+0.1 pp from the multiple (roughly flat). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Tata Elxsi Ltd reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — profit and EPS growth are shrinking (profit growth −12.0% latest against +668.9% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE slipping at 28.0%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.

4-Factor Sector Score

39.0/100 — rank 5 of 7 in IT - ER&D · 100% evidence confidence

Tata Elxsi Ltd scores 39.0 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in IT - ER&D, ranking 5. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 12.3 + 18.1 + 7.1 + 1.5 = 39. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Tata Elxsi Ltd reported ₹1,021 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +14.5% year on year. That is the 3rd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 13.3% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹3,757 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹3,886 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹3,757 Cr (+0.8% on the year), capping 10 years at 13.3% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹1,021 Cr, +14.5% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +5.4% growth against the decade's 13.3% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +5.2% over the last 4 quarters against +3.5%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit −12.0% vs −8.8%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Tata Elxsi Ltd's operating margin is 21.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 19 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 11.0% to 31.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 21.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 19 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 11.0%–31.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.2 pp year on year while gross margin went −0.6 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Tata Elxsi Ltd earned ₹171 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +18.8% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹628 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 15.0%. That is 16.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹144 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹171 Cr, +18.8% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹628 Cr (−20.0%), and the 10-year compound rate is 15.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +14.5% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −7.7% vs revenue +5.4%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 99% of Tata Elxsi Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹664 Cr of operating cash against ₹628 Cr of profit. After ₹33.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹631 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹664 Cr against reported profit of ₹628 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹631 Cr after ₹33.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 99% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 99%: the cash cycle held roughly steady between FY21 and FY26 — so conversion tracks profitability rather than the cycle.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Tata Elxsi Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 105 days in FY26, up from 98 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹216 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹3,757 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹10.3 Cr, so roughly ₹1,081 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 105 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 105 days, looser than FY21's 98.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹3,757 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹10.3 Cr — so the 105-day loop keeps roughly ₹1,081 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹216 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹298 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Tata Elxsi Ltd earns a ROCE of 30% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 16% in FY11. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +27.5 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 16.7% net margin on 0.95× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 30%, recovered from a FY11 trough of 16% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 16.7% net margin × 0.95× asset turns × 1.30× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 20.6% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 39.5% − 12.0% = a +27.5 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every rupee reinvested creates more than a rupee of value — the engine compounds.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Tata Elxsi Ltd carries total debt of ₹162 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹3,041 Cr as of Jun 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.05 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.09 in FY22 to 0.05 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Jun 26: total debt of ₹162 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹3,041 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.05. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.09 (FY22) to 0.05 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 4.8 points of Tata Elxsi Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 11.0% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −3.8 points over the same window, to 9.8%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +4.8 points over 8 quarters to 11.0%; Foreign institutions: −3.8 points over 8 quarters to 9.8%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 43.9%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −3.8 points against domestic institutions +4.8 points over 8 quarters, with promoters holding steady — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Tata Elxsi Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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