NLC India Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

NLC India Ltd trades at ₹298, in a confirmed uptrend and 46 weeks into that stage. That is +4.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 52% of a 52-week range of ₹239 to ₹353. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (6 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 46 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹298 it trades +4.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 52% of its 52-week range (₹239–₹353).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +356% while the NIFTY 500 moved +282% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (6 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-25) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

NLC India Ltd trades at 11.7× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (67th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 7.6×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 11.7× is mid-range by its own standards (67th percentile), against a long-run median of 7.6× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +34.4% against a +27.3% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +38.1%/yr price move, ~+22.0%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+16.1 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +14.6%/yr price move, ~+12.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+2.4 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 8.2% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Stage: Improving Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

NLC India Ltd reads as improving on its fundamental arc. Improving — profit growth bottomed 8 quarters ago at −86.4% and has held its recovery at +216.5% (single-quarter readings), ROCE slipping at 10.0%. The read is built from 10 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: a sustained climb off the trough is the setup this page is built to catch — the question moves to what you pay for it.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

62.1/100 — rank 1 of 20 in Power - Generation/Distribution · 78% evidence confidence

NLC India Ltd scores 62.1 out of 100 against the 20 companies it is compared with in Power - Generation/Distribution, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 23.7 + 13.1 + 10.5 + 14.8 = 62.1. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

NLC India Ltd reported ₹5,042 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +31.4% year on year. That is the 8th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 8.4% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹17,490 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹17,489 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹17,490 Cr (+14.1% on the year), capping 10 years at 8.4% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹5,042 Cr, +31.4% year on year — the 8th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +14.9% growth against the decade's 8.4% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +14.5% over the last 4 quarters against +16.0%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +38.9% vs +42.0%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

NLC India Ltd's operating margin is 35.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +13.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 23.0% to 46.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 35.0%, +13.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 23.0%–46.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +12.7 pp year on year while gross margin went −6.8 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

NLC India Ltd earned ₹1,481 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +216.5% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹3,769 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 49.4%. That is 29.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹468 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹1,481 Cr, +216.5% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹3,769 Cr (+38.9%), and the 10-year compound rate is 49.4%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +31.4% and the margin +13.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +60.6% vs revenue +14.9%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 235% of NLC India Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹5,166 Cr of operating cash against ₹3,769 Cr of profit. After ₹7,272 Cr of capital spending, ₹−2,106 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹5,166 Cr against reported profit of ₹3,769 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−2,106 Cr after ₹7,272 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 235% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 235%: the cash cycle tightened 206 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 3.0× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

NLC India Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 70 days in FY26, down from 276 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹18,283 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹17,490 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹47.9 Cr, so roughly ₹3,354 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 70 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 70 days, tighter than FY21's 276.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹17,490 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹47.9 Cr — so the 70-day loop keeps roughly ₹3,354 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹18,283 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹6,088 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹14,293 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

NLC India Ltd earns a ROCE of 10% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 7% in FY24. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 21.5% net margin on 0.27× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 10%, recovered from a FY24 trough of 7% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 21.5% net margin × 0.27× asset turns × 3.03× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 17.6% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 8.2% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

NLC India Ltd carries ₹27,892 Cr of borrowings against ₹21,525 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 1.30. Operating profit covers the interest bill 5×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹27,234 Cr to ₹27,892 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹18,283 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹27,892 Cr against equity of ₹21,525 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 1.30. Operating profit covers the interest bill 5×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹27,234 Cr to ₹27,892 Cr while capital spending ran ₹18,283 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 8.2% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 2.7 points of NLC India Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 69.5% of the company. Foreign institutions moved +2.4 points over the same window, to 4.6%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −2.7 points over 8 quarters to 69.5%; Foreign institutions: +2.4 points over 8 quarters to 4.6%; Domestic institutions: −0.9 points over 8 quarters to 12.9%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−2.7 points), absorbed on the other side by foreign institutions (+2.4 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

NLC India Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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