NHPC Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

NHPC Ltd trades at ₹76.4, in a downtrend and 9 weeks into that stage. That is −2.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 30% of a 52-week range of ₹73 to ₹85. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (1 week and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 9 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹76.4 it trades −2.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 30% of its 52-week range (₹73–₹85).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +264% while the NIFTY 500 moved +267% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (1 week and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-09-04) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

NHPC Ltd trades at 20.2× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (75th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 10.7×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 20.2× is at the pricey end of its own range (75th percentile), against a long-run median of 10.7× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +25.4% against a −8.5% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +22.8%/yr price move, ~+2.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+20.5 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +11.3%/yr price move, ~+7.4%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+3.9 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 13 June 2026 price, NHPC Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 11.6% a year. Profit itself has compounded 6.0% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 20.2× P/E, the 75th percentile of its own 11-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is above what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 13 June 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Improving Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

NHPC Ltd reads as improving on its fundamental arc. Improving — profit growth bottomed 6 quarters ago at −21.3% and has held its recovery at +24.0%, ROCE holding at 5.4%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: a sustained climb off the trough is the setup this page is built to catch — the question moves to what you pay for it.

4-Factor Sector Score

55.5/100 — rank 6 of 20 in Power - Generation/Distribution · 100% evidence confidence

NHPC Ltd scores 55.5 out of 100 against the 20 companies it is compared with in Power - Generation/Distribution, ranking 6. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 24 + 9.5 + 5.4 + 16.6 = 55.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

NHPC Ltd reported ₹3,808 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +18.5% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 3.4% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹11,615 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹12,210 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹11,615 Cr (+11.9% on the year), capping 10 years at 3.4% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹3,808 Cr, +18.5% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +11.5% growth against the decade's 3.4% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +12.0% over the last 4 quarters against +13.0%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +24.0% vs +3.0%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

NHPC Ltd's operating margin is 62.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +6.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 35.0% to 62.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 62.0%, +6.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 35.0%–62.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +5.7 pp year on year while gross margin went +1.8 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

NHPC Ltd earned ₹1,178 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +4.2% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹4,220 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 6.0%. That is 30.9% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹1,131 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹1,178 Cr, +4.2% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹4,220 Cr (+23.7%), and the 10-year compound rate is 6.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +18.5% and the margin +6.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +21.2% vs revenue +11.5%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 134% of NHPC Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹3,294 Cr of operating cash against ₹4,220 Cr of profit. After ₹14,445 Cr of capital spending, ₹−11,151 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹3,294 Cr against reported profit of ₹4,220 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−11,151 Cr after ₹14,445 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 134% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 134%: the cash cycle tightened 111 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 8.3× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

NHPC Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 83 days in FY26, down from 194 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹36,097 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹11,615 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹31.8 Cr, so roughly ₹2,641 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 83 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 83 days, tighter than FY21's 194.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹11,615 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹31.8 Cr — so the 83-day loop keeps roughly ₹2,641 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹36,097 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹4,353 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹34,948 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

NHPC Ltd earns a ROCE of 6% in FY26. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −9.6 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 36.3% net margin on 0.10× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 6%.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 36.3% net margin × 0.10× asset turns × 2.90× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 10.5% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 2.4% − 12.0% = a −9.6 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

NHPC Ltd carries total debt of ₹54,751 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹48,405 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 1.13. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.74 in FY22 to 1.13 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹54,751 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹48,405 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 1.13. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.74 (FY22) to 1.13 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 6.0 points of NHPC Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 61.4% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +4.3 points over the same window, to 14.5%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −6.0 points over 8 quarters to 61.4%; Domestic institutions: +4.3 points over 8 quarters to 14.5%; Foreign institutions: +3.3 points over 8 quarters to 12.3%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−6.0 points), absorbed on the other side by domestic institutions (+4.3 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

NHPC Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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