Macfos Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Macfos Ltd trades at ₹1,105, in a confirmed uptrend and 37 weeks into that stage. That is +11.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 68% of a 52-week range of ₹691 to ₹1,300. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 1 straight week.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 37 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹1,105 it trades +11.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 68% of its 52-week range (₹691–₹1,300).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 3.5 years the stock moved +670% while the NIFTY 500 moved +53% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 1 straight week — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Macfos Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 17 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: EARLY_EXPANSION. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 27 June 2026.

Our read, 17 May 2026. India's only full-stack electronics e-commerce platform proving operating leverage at scale — Robu 2.0 proprietary margin is the next re-rating catalyst, management consistency is the key gating risk.

From the numbers. PE at 11th percentile of available range (41.3 vs 42.5 median, low reliability due to short history). COMPRESSED with GOLDEN_SETUP — EPS at ₹24.75 stepping up rapidly from ₹11.16 (FY24) → ₹17.23 (FY25) → ₹24.75 (FY26).…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 37 — above its 200-day line, relative strength falling.

From the research. India's only full-stack electronics e-commerce platform proving operating leverage at scale — Robu 2.0 proprietary margin is the next re-rating catalyst, management consistency is the key gating risk.

🚨 Where they disagree. PE at 11th percentile of available range (41.3 vs 42.5 median, low reliability due to short history). COMPRESSED with GOLDEN_SETUP — EPS at ₹24.75 stepping up rapidly from ₹11.16 (FY24) → ₹17.23 (FY25) → ₹24.75 (FY26). Earnings-driven compression: price lagging EPS acceleration. Q4 annualized EPS suggests FY27 trajectory toward ₹35-40 if growth sustains. Institutional signal MIXED — FII at 0.32%, DII rising to 7.06% (Mar 2025 vs 0.09% in Dec 2023); promoter selling offset by DII accumulation.

What is proven. India's only full-stack electronics e-commerce platform proving operating leverage at scale — Robu 2.0 proprietary margin is the next re-rating catalyst, management consistency is the key gating risk.

What is not proven yet. Four instances of management saying X in Oct 2025 and directly contradicting X in Apr 2026 — growth guidance softening, main board flip, Robu 2.0 drone-only vs SmartNix reality, inventory rotation confidence vs rising dead stock.

🚨 Layer 1 read, 27 June 2026 — DROP. Real operating leverage, but the profits aren't cash and management keeps contradicting itself. FY26 delivered EBITDA +103% with annual EPS stepping 17.23→24.75 on a multiple that compressed as earnings rose — the operating-leverage thesis is genuinely working and the price is still early. The catch is cash: cumulative 3-year operating cash flow is negative (OCF/PAT -0.53) because the model converts debt into inventory, and slow-moving inventory climbed from 2.64% to 6.21%. Layered on that are four cross-call management contradictions, so the growth is real but the earnings quality and governance both carry discounts.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. Slow-moving inventory pushes above 7% triggering write-offs, OR a fifth management contradiction / accelerating promoter selling — either would break the 'operating leverage is real and the cash will follow' premise and flip this from P2 to DROP.

The test written in advance. Management communication integrity — four documented cross-call contradictions — Management communication integrity — four documented cross-call contradictions Any new Q1 FY27 guidance statement vs Apr 2026 commitments by the next result.

The test written in advance. Slow-moving inventory rise + write-off risk — Slow-moving inventory rise + write-off risk Q1 FY27 slow-moving inventory percentage vs 7% threshold by the next result.

The test written in advance. Promoter selling + no dividend at elevated PB — Promoter selling + no dividend at elevated PB Any further promoter holding reduction in the Dec 2025 / Mar 2026 shareholding data (not yet available in context) by the next result.

What the company does. FY26 closed with revenue +64-67% (ex-one-off), EBITDA +103%, PAT +105% — Q4 FY26 the strongest quarter ever at ₹102 Cr revenue and ₹9.87 Cr PAT, OPM expanding 330bps YoY to 13.6%. PE compressed to 11th percentile of available range (COMPRESSED, GOLDEN_SETUP) while EPS stepped from ₹17.23 to ₹24.75 — earnings-driven multiple compression, not price weakness. Robu 2.0 (~300 SmartNix modules + 5-10 drone products) targets 10% higher gross margin vs distribution; binary 2-year defense decision ahead; four cross-call management consistency failures are the primary investor discount.

Lever 1 · Operating leverage — BUILDING. Every ₹1 of incremental revenue dropping ~1.55x to EBITDA. FY26 EBITDA grew 103% on 64-67% revenue growth — fixed-cost absorption accelerating at scale. What proves it keeps working: Operating Leverage Inflection. It stops working if Any new Q1 FY27 guidance statement vs Apr 2026 commitments.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. ~300 SmartNix modules + 5-10 drone products targeting 10% higher gross margin than distribution — at 10% revenue mix, adds 1pp group margin. What proves it keeps working: Value-Added Product Mix Shift (Robu 2.0 — SmartNix + Drones). It stops working if Any new Q1 FY27 guidance statement vs Apr 2026 commitments.

Lever 14 · A bigger market to sell into — BUILDING. Indian electronics TAM expected ₹10,000 Cr by 2030; average order value lifted from ₹6,000 Q3 to ₹7,300 Q4 — customer maturation and larger basket sizes structurally widening addressable revenue. What proves it keeps working: TAM Expansion (India Electronics Market Growth + Customer Maturation). It stops working if Any new Q1 FY27 guidance statement vs Apr 2026 commitments.

Lever 15 · Market-share gains — BUILDING. ~1.5 lakh SKUs with no full-portfolio Indian competitor; corporate sales grew from ~5% of revenue in 2019 to ~50% now — organized intermediary capturing fragmented distribution share. What proves it keeps working: Market Share Gains (SKU breadth + B2B corporate channel). It stops working if Any new Q1 FY27 guidance statement vs Apr 2026 commitments.

Sources: our stock research file (17 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Macfos Ltd reported ₹81.3 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +37.2% year on year. That is the 3rd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 2 years it has compounded at 57.2% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹309 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹331 Cr.

Why this happened. The India electronics distribution market is growing driven by AI/IoT/drone/3D-printing adoption and the Make-in-India industrial push. CEO sees the market 'hot for at least next 2-3 years.' Average order value growth from H2 average ₹6,776 to Q4 approximately ₹7,300 confirms customer maturation — early startups graduating to mid-sized companies, enabling larger basket sizes. Corporate/B2B share growing faster than B2C. Macfos has no direct full-portfolio competitor in India. International players (Digi-Key, Mouser, Arrow) lack India-specific support. TAM estimated at ₹10,000 Cr by 2030.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹309 Cr (+21.2% on the year), capping 2 years at 57.2% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹81.3 Cr, +37.2% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +37.2% growth against the decade's 57.2% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +28.5% over the last 4 quarters against +45.6%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +40.5% vs +42.8%/yr — stabilising.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Macfos Ltd's operating margin is 10.6% in the Jun 26 quarter, −1.9 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 3 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 10.0% to 12.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. FY26 confirmed operating leverage at scale: revenue ₹312 Cr (ex-one-off, ~64-67% YoY), EBITDA ₹39 Cr (+103% YoY), PAT ₹25.65 Cr (+105% YoY). Gross margin held flat at 24% while scale grew — meaning fixed-cost leverage drove the EBITDA expansion. Q4 FY26 was the strongest quarter: ₹102.14 Cr revenue with 13.6% OPM, versus 10.3% in Q4 FY25. The fixed costs (salary <5% of revenue, digital marketing <1.5% of revenue, ERP/IT infrastructure) are being absorbed over a growing revenue base. This is the primary earnings engine.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 10.6%, −1.9 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 3 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 10.0%–12.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −1.9 pp year on year while gross margin went −0.1 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Macfos Ltd earned ₹5.8 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +17.1% year on year. It is the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹26.0 Cr. The 2-year compound rate is 53.7%. That is 7.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹5.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹5.8 Cr, +17.1% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹26.0 Cr (+44.4%), and the 2-year compound rate is 53.7%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +37.2% and the margin −1.9 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +51.8% vs revenue +37.2%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years −53% of Macfos Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹−8.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹26.0 Cr of profit. After ₹5.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹−13.0 Cr was left as free cash. Cash resolution here is annual, because quarterly cash statements are not published.

FY26: operating cash of ₹−8.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹26.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−13.0 Cr after ₹5.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is −53% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at −53%: the cash cycle stretched 38 days between FY24 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 38 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Macfos Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 113 days in FY26, up from 75 days in FY24. Capital spending ran ₹10.0 Cr over the last 2 years. At FY26 sales of ₹309 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹0.8 Cr, so roughly ₹96.0 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 16 days, inventory at 122 days — roughly 4.0 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 113 days, looser than FY24's 75.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 122 days to sell; customers pay about 16 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 26 days — netting out to the 113-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹309 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹0.8 Cr — so the 113-day loop keeps roughly ₹96.0 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹10.0 Cr over the last 2 fiscal years against ₹4.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Macfos Ltd earns a ROCE of 34% in FY26. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 8.4% net margin on 1.93× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 34%.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 8.4% net margin × 1.93× asset turns × 1.67× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 27.1% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Macfos Ltd carries ₹36.0 Cr of borrowings against ₹96.0 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.38. Operating profit covers the interest bill 10×. Over 2 years borrowings went from ₹8.0 Cr to ₹36.0 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹10.0 Cr across the last 2 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹36.0 Cr against equity of ₹96.0 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.38. Operating profit covers the interest bill 10×. Over 2 years borrowings went from ₹8.0 Cr to ₹36.0 Cr while capital spending ran ₹10.0 Cr in just the last 2 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Macfos Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Foreign institutions moved −0.1 points over the same window, to 0.2%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +0.8 points over 8 quarters to 6.1%; Foreign institutions: −0.1 points over 8 quarters to 0.2%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 69.1%.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Macfos Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Macfos Ltd trades at 43.2× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (50th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 43.3×, measured across 2.3 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 43.2× is mid-range by its own standards (50th percentile), against a long-run median of 43.3× measured over 2.3 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +43.4% against a +62.7% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 29 June 2026 price, Macfos Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 23.3% a year. Profit itself has compounded 53.7% a year over the past 2 years. Today the market pays 43.2× P/E, the 50th percentile of its own 2-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is unremarkable against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 29 June 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Macfos Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — the growth curves are steadily positive, but no return curve is held to confirm the Consistent bar. The read is built from 8 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

56.8/100 — rank 5 of 13 in E-Commerce - Platform - Utility · 75% evidence confidence

Macfos Ltd scores 56.8 out of 100 against the 13 companies it is compared with in E-Commerce - Platform - Utility, ranking 5. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 16.8 + 18.5 + 9.9 + 11.6 = 56.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Macfos Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Growth Guidance Confidence Shift · 30 April 2026. In Oct 2025, management gave an unambiguous affirmation when asked directly whether their historic ~50% CAGR and 8% PAT margins would continue for the next two to three years, explicitly stating they were 'very confident' the growth path would be maintained. In Apr 2026, when asked the same fundamental question about whether past growth rates can sustain, management gave a hedged, philosophical response acknowledging eventual sector saturation and did not reaffirm the prior commitment - a notable and unexplained softening of forward guidance even though FY26 like-for-like growth of 64-67% had actually exceeded the stated target.

Main Board Migration Narrative Shift · 30 April 2026. In Oct 2025, management stated that main board migration had never been discussed in detail and was not on the table, framing it as an option not yet seriously considered. In Apr 2026, management directly contradicted this by claiming the decision to migrate was made at the time of the original SME listing three years ago and that preparatory steps have since been taken - a materially inconsistent account of how long and how actively this value-relevant corporate action has been evaluated internally.

Robu 2.0 Stated Drone-Only Focus vs. Actual Product Mix · 30 April 2026. In Oct 2025, management explicitly characterized Robu 2.0 as having narrowed to a singular sector focus on drones, using the phrase 'focusing on one sector' to describe the current strategic state of the initiative. In Apr 2026, management revealed approximately 300 SmartNix (non-drone) modules and only 5-10 drone products under Robu 2.0, and described both drones and SmartNix as 'major focus areas' - a product distribution and strategic framing that directly contradicts the prior representation of drones as the sole area of concentration.

Inventory Rotation Confidence vs. Acknowledged Rise in Dead Stock · 30 April 2026. In Oct 2025, when an investor specifically asked whether 4x-4.5x annual inventory rotation could be maintained given rapid SKU additions, management gave a confident and unqualified confirmation of 4.5x turns with no caveats. In Apr 2026, management acknowledged that slow-moving inventory has materially increased - attributing the cause to the components category addition that predated the Oct 2025 call - raising the question of why the Oct 2025 rotation figure was presented with such confidence despite the drag from that same category already being present at the time.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions