Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd trades at ₹235, in a downtrend and 21 weeks into that stage. That is −1.9% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 25% of a 52-week range of ₹192 to ₹362. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 1 straight week.

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 21 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹235 it trades −1.9% versus its 200-day average and sits at 25% of its 52-week range (₹192–₹362).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +78% while the NIFTY 500 moved +276% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 1 straight week — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd trades at 3.2× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 22% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 4.8×, measured across 8.2 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 3.2× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 22% of the time, against a long-run median of 4.8× measured over 8.2 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

One caveat before moving on: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. If profitability mean-reverts, today's multiple is higher than it looks.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +458.2% against a −23.4% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +15.1%/yr price move, ~+0.0%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+15.1 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources do not share enough overlapping reported history to be compared. A figure nobody could check is not used to price growth — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — revenue and profit growth are shrinking while ROCE is still lifting at 16.0% — falling growth against firm returns, so no single stage word fits yet. The read is built from 9 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

47.9/100 — rank 9 of 15 in Fertilisers · 81% evidence confidence

Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd scores 47.9 out of 100 against the 15 companies it is compared with in Fertilisers, ranking 9. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 15.9 + 9.9 + 14.6 + 7.5 = 47.9. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd reported ₹615 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, −50.6% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at −8.3% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹3,200 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹2,569 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹3,200 Cr (−27.9% on the year), capping 10 years at −8.3% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹615 Cr, −50.6% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −44.3% growth against the decade's −8.3% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −44.0% over the last 4 quarters against −24.3%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +197.0% vs +119.6%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd's operating margin is 10.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, −1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −11.0% to 10.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 10.0%, −1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −11.0%–10.0%, and FY26's 10.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −1.7 pp year on year while gross margin went −13.6 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd earned ₹119 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −6.3% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹982 Cr. That is 19.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹127 Cr. 1 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Jun 26 profit was ₹119 Cr, −6.3% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹982 Cr (+325.1%).

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed −50.6% and the margin −1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +138.4% vs revenue −44.3%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 86% of Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹203 Cr of operating cash against ₹982 Cr of profit. After ₹−654 Cr of capital spending, ₹857 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹203 Cr against reported profit of ₹982 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹857 Cr after ₹−654 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 86% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 86%: the cash cycle held roughly steady between FY21 and FY26 — so conversion tracks profitability rather than the cycle.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 16 days in FY26, down from 25 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹−1,544 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹3,200 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹8.8 Cr, so roughly ₹140 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 10 days, inventory at 45 days — roughly 1.5 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 16 days, tighter than FY21's 25.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 45 days to sell; customers pay about 10 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 39 days — netting out to the 16-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹3,200 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹8.8 Cr — so the 16-day loop keeps roughly ₹140 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹−1,544 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹256 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.⚠ unverified

Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd earns a ROCE of 16% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −5% in FY20. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −4.2 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 30.7% net margin on 0.98× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 16%, recovered from a FY20 trough of −5% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 30.7% net margin × 0.98× asset turns × 1.56× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 46.9% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 7.8% − 12.0% = a −4.2 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.⚠ unverified

Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd carries total debt of ₹642 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹2,090 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.31. On the annual view that ratio went from 3.13 in FY22 to 0.31 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹642 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹2,090 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.31. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 3.13 (FY22) to 0.31 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions added 1.3 points of Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 2.3% of the company. Promoters moved −0.1 points over the same window, to 65.2%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: +1.3 points over 8 quarters to 2.3%; Promoters: −0.1 points over 8 quarters to 65.2%; Domestic institutions: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 0.1%.

Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (+1.3 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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