Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd trades at ₹510, in a confirmed uptrend and 7 weeks into that stage. That is +2.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 69% of a 52-week range of ₹386 to ₹568. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (5 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 7 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹510 it trades +2.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 69% of its 52-week range (₹386–₹568).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +541% while the NIFTY 500 moved +276% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (5 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-01) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd trades at 9.3× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (51st percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 9.2×, measured across 9.9 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 9.3× is mid-range by its own standards (51st percentile), against a long-run median of 9.2× measured over 9.9 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +35.2% against a −4.6% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +5.8%/yr price move, ~+4.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+1.6 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +12.7%/yr price move, ~+16.8%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−4.1 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Improving Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd reads as improving on its fundamental arc. Improving — profit growth bottomed 8 quarters ago at −60.5% and has held its recovery at +35.3%, ROCE holding at 10.6%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: a sustained climb off the trough is the setup this page is built to catch — the question moves to what you pay for it.

4-Factor Sector Score

69.5/100 — rank 1 of 15 in Fertilisers · 96% evidence confidence

Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd scores 69.5 out of 100 against the 15 companies it is compared with in Fertilisers, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 21.1 + 14.3 + 15.1 + 19 = 69.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd reported ₹2,208 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +7.4% year on year. That is the 3rd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 5.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹7,773 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹7,773 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹7,773 Cr (−1.5% on the year), capping 10 years at 5.5% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹2,208 Cr, +7.4% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −1.4% growth against the decade's 5.5% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −1.5% over the last 4 quarters against −1.0%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +35.3% vs +27.5%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's operating margin is 22.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +10.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −0.4% to 28.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 22.0%, +10.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −0.4%–28.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +10.1 pp year on year while gross margin went +8.4 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd earned ₹396 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +87.7% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹808 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 16.2%. That is 17.9% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹211 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹396 Cr, +87.7% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹808 Cr (+35.1%), and the 10-year compound rate is 16.2%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +7.4% and the margin +10.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +30.1% vs revenue −1.4%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 68% of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — most of the profit is real cash. In FY26 that was ₹654 Cr of operating cash against ₹808 Cr of profit. After ₹612 Cr of capital spending, ₹42.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹654 Cr against reported profit of ₹808 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹42.0 Cr after ₹612 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 68% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at 68%: the cash cycle tightened 22 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 81 days in FY26, down from 103 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹1,131 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹7,773 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹21.3 Cr, so roughly ₹1,725 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 30 days, inventory at 92 days — roughly 3.0 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 81 days, tighter than FY21's 103.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 92 days to sell; customers pay about 30 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 41 days — netting out to the 81-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹7,773 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹21.3 Cr — so the 81-day loop keeps roughly ₹1,725 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹1,131 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹918 Cr of depreciation — building somewhat ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹900 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd earns a ROCE of 12% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 8% in FY20. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −6.0 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses.

FY26 ROCE is 12%, recovered from a FY20 trough of 8% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 10.4% net margin × 0.68× asset turns × 1.25× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 8.8% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 6.0% − 12.0% = a −6.0 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd carries total debt of ₹6.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹9,115 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.00 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.00 in FY22 to 0.00 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹6.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹9,115 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.00. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.00 (FY22) to 0.00 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 6.1 points of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 13.1% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +4.4 points over the same window, to 11.0%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −6.1 points over 8 quarters to 13.1%; Domestic institutions: +4.4 points over 8 quarters to 11.0%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 41.3%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −6.1 points against domestic institutions +4.4 points over 8 quarters, with promoters holding steady — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Frequently asked questions