Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore Ltd trades at ₹827, in a confirmed uptrend and 10 weeks into that stage. That is −3.9% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 46% of a 52-week range of ₹681 to ₹1,000. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (8 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 10 of stage 2. At ₹827 it trades −3.9% versus its 200-day average and sits at 46% of its 52-week range (₹681–₹1,000).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +3,827% while the NIFTY 500 moved +276% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (8 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-19) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore Ltd trades at 3,612.0× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (94th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 48.4×, measured across 5.9 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 3,612.0× is at the pricey end of its own range (94th percentile), against a long-run median of 48.4× measured over 5.9 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −67.7% against a −11.4% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +42.4%/yr price move, ~−46.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+89.3 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −113.6% at the trough to +276.0%, a 2-quarter improving streak, ROCE holding at 18.8%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

4-Factor Sector Score

37.0/100 — rank 15 of 15 in Fertilisers · 89% evidence confidence

Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore Ltd scores 37.0 out of 100 against the 15 companies it is compared with in Fertilisers, ranking 15. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 17.5 + 4.2 + 5 + 10.3 = 37. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore Ltd reported ₹1,568 Cr of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +65.2% year on year. That is the 3rd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 7.4% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at ₹4,051 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹5,293 Cr.

FY25 revenue came in at ₹4,051 Cr (−19.8% on the year), capping 10 years at 7.4% compound. The latest quarter (Dec 25) printed ₹1,568 Cr, +65.2% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +37.7% growth against the decade's 7.4% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +30.4% over the last 4 quarters against +0.5%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore Ltd's operating margin is −2.7% in the Dec 25 quarter, −6.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 11 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −13.0% to 17.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is −2.7%, −6.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 11 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −13.0%–17.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −6.0 pp year on year while gross margin went −13.1 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore Ltd posted a net loss of ₹68.0 Cr in the Dec 25 quarter. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹41.0 Cr. That loss is 4.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹8.0 Cr. 3 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Dec 25 profit was ₹−68.0 Cr, −950.0% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed ₹41.0 Cr (−68.0%).

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 135% of Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was ₹140 Cr of operating cash against ₹41.0 Cr of profit. After ₹153 Cr of capital spending, ₹−13.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of ₹140 Cr against reported profit of ₹41.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−13.0 Cr after ₹153 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 135% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 135%: the cash cycle tightened 47 days between FY20 and FY25 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 4.3× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 94 days in FY25, down from 141 days in FY20. Capital spending ran ₹402 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY25 sales of ₹4,051 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹11.1 Cr, so roughly ₹1,043 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY25: debtors at 26 days, inventory at 128 days — roughly 4.2 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 94 days, tighter than FY20's 141.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 128 days to sell; customers pay about 26 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 60 days — netting out to the 94-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY25 sales of ₹4,051 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹11.1 Cr — so the 94-day loop keeps roughly ₹1,043 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹402 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹94.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹216 Cr (FY25) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore Ltd earns a ROCE of 9% in FY25. That is up from a trough of −55% in FY16. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −10.3 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 1.0% net margin on 0.67× asset turns.

FY25 ROCE is 9%, recovered from a FY16 trough of −55% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 1.0% net margin × 0.67× asset turns × 4.40× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 2.9% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 1.7% − 12.0% = a −10.3 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore Ltd carries total debt of ₹3,985 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,350 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 2.95. On the annual view that ratio went from 2.78 in FY22 to 2.95 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹3,985 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,350 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 2.95. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 2.78 (FY22) to 2.95 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions cut 8.5 points of Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 0.1% of the company. Promoters moved +0.0 points over the same window, to 90.0%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: −8.5 points over 8 quarters to 0.1%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 90.0%; Foreign institutions: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 0.2%.

🚨 Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (−8.5 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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