National Fertilizer Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

National Fertilizer Ltd trades at ₹71.5, in a downtrend and 51 weeks into that stage. That is −10.5% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 11% of a 52-week range of ₹68 to ₹98. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (8 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 51 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹71.5 it trades −10.5% versus its 200-day average and sits at 11% of its 52-week range (₹68–₹98).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +162% while the NIFTY 500 moved +276% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (8 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-19) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

National Fertilizer Ltd trades at 16.6× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (61st percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 14.6×, measured across 9.9 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 16.6× is mid-range by its own standards (61st percentile), against a long-run median of 14.6× measured over 9.9 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +14.9% against a −24.3% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +2.2%/yr price move, ~−2.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+4.4 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +7.7%/yr price move, ~+0.7%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+7.0 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

National Fertilizer Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE slipping at 7.4% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

The latest quarter’s profit carries a one-off item larger than the operating base, so the profit curve is shown but does not vote in the stage call.

4-Factor Sector Score

41.7/100 — rank 13 of 15 in Fertilisers · 89% evidence confidence

National Fertilizer Ltd scores 41.7 out of 100 against the 15 companies it is compared with in Fertilisers, ranking 13. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 19.3 + 6.1 + 10.1 + 6.2 = 41.7. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

National Fertilizer Ltd reported ₹4,347 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.5% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 10.7% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹21,514 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹21,514 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹21,514 Cr (+8.7% on the year), capping 10 years at 10.7% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹4,347 Cr, −2.5% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +9.6% growth against the decade's 10.7% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +8.7% over the last 4 quarters against −4.5%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +15.2% vs +18.5%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

National Fertilizer Ltd's operating margin is 7.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 2.4% to 8.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 7.0%, +2.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 2.4%–8.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +2.1 pp year on year while gross margin went +1.3 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

National Fertilizer Ltd earned ₹152 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +12.6% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹211 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 0.7%. That is 3.5% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹135 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹152 Cr, +12.6% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹211 Cr (+14.7%), and the 10-year compound rate is 0.7%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed −2.5% and the margin +2.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −64.6% vs revenue +9.6%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 352% of National Fertilizer Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹−1,342 Cr of operating cash against ₹211 Cr of profit. After ₹234 Cr of capital spending, ₹−1,576 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹−1,342 Cr against reported profit of ₹211 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−1,576 Cr after ₹234 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 352% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 352%: the cash cycle stretched 17 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

National Fertilizer Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 81 days in FY26, up from 64 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹688 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹21,514 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹58.9 Cr, so roughly ₹4,774 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 92 days, inventory at 29 days — roughly 1.0 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 81 days, looser than FY21's 64.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 29 days to sell; customers pay about 92 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 39 days — netting out to the 81-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹21,514 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹58.9 Cr — so the 81-day loop keeps roughly ₹4,774 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹688 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹1,140 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹161 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

National Fertilizer Ltd earns a ROCE of 9% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 2% in FY22. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −7.2 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 1.0% net margin on 1.84× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 9%, recovered from a FY22 trough of 2% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 1.0% net margin × 1.84× asset turns × 4.13× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 7.6% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 4.8% − 12.0% = a −7.2 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

National Fertilizer Ltd carries total debt of ₹3,964 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹2,841 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 1.40. On the annual view that ratio went from 1.52 in FY22 to 1.40 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹3,964 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹2,841 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 1.40. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 1.52 (FY22) to 1.40 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions cut 2.5 points of National Fertilizer Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 4.9% of the company. Foreign institutions moved +0.1 points over the same window, to 0.5%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: −2.5 points over 8 quarters to 4.9%; Foreign institutions: +0.1 points over 8 quarters to 0.5%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 74.7%.

🚨 Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (−2.5 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

National Fertilizer Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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