United Spirits Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

United Spirits Ltd trades at ₹1,395, in a confirmed uptrend and 6 weeks into that stage. That is +0.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 52% of a 52-week range of ₹1,221 to ₹1,556. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 13 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 6 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹1,395 it trades +0.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 52% of its 52-week range (₹1,221–₹1,556).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +192% while the NIFTY 500 moved +267% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 13 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

United Spirits Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 22 August 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: MID_EXPANSION. Still open: The thesis breaks if reported P&A momentum outside Maharashtra fails to translate into recurring operating profit while McDowell's repeat purchases do not improve after the national rollout.

Our read, 22 August 2026. Premium brands and state-policy openings support earnings, but reported profit contains material below-EBITDA income and the McDowell's reset remains unproven.

From the numbers. Earnings have expanded while the multiple has compressed. The weekly PE is below the historical median, but recurring normalized earnings imply a higher valuation than the trailing PE. This supports a fairly priced…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 6 — below its 200-day line, relative strength rising.

From the research. Premium brands and state-policy openings support earnings, but reported profit contains material below-EBITDA income and the McDowell's reset remains unproven.

🚨 Where they disagree. Earnings have expanded while the multiple has compressed. The weekly PE is below the historical median, but recurring normalized earnings imply a higher valuation than the trailing PE. This supports a fairly priced conclusion rather than a valuation-only opportunity.

What is proven. Premium brands and state-policy openings support earnings, but reported profit contains material below-EBITDA income and the McDowell's reset remains unproven.

What is not proven yet. The thesis breaks if reported P&A momentum outside Maharashtra fails to translate into recurring operating profit while McDowell's repeat purchases do not improve after the national rollout.

🚨 What would change our mind. The thesis breaks if reported P&A momentum outside Maharashtra fails to translate into recurring operating profit while McDowell's repeat purchases do not improve after the national rollout.

🚨 Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — DROP. Sales fell 10% and operating profit stalled; the reported profit growth is a dividend management says will not repeat. United Spirits sold 10.4% less than a year ago and its operating margin dropped to 16% from 21%, with about 30 crore of extra cost from glass, energy, packaging and freight. Profit still printed 11% higher only because other income jumped to 218 crore from 58 crore and tax fell — and management stated on the call that its result included a 150 crore dividend it expects to be the last one. The multiple looks cheap only against the company's own 2020 bubble; stripping the one-off income puts it near 79 times, so there is no valuation cushion under a business whose engine is currently going sideways at best.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. The September quarter showing revenue back above the year-ago 3,173 crore with operating margin at or above 19% and other income back under about 60 crore — proving the premium portfolio outside Maharashtra converts into RECURRING operating profit rather than dividend income — would move this up sharply. What confirms the bearish read instead, sharpening the timeline's own kill line: another quarter of operating margin at or below 16% with other income again above 20% of pre-tax profit, plus…

The test written in advance. The thesis breaks if reported P&A momentum outside Maharashtra fails to translate into recurring operating profit while McDowell's repeat purchases do not improve after the national rollout. — the thesis as written as stated by the next result.

The test written in advance. Reported-profit quality — Reported-profit quality Other income remains a material share of profit before tax for two further quarters. by the next result.

The test written in advance. Maharashtra policy and lower-prestige competition — Maharashtra policy and lower-prestige competition Reported P&A volume remains negative without a corresponding improvement outside Maharashtra. by the next result.

What the company does. Prestige-and-above momentum outside Maharashtra and the UKFTA rollout can support mix and accessibility. The reported earnings print needs separating from recurring operations because recent quarters include non-operating income. The valuation is below its own recent range but remains rich on normalized earnings, so delivery rather than multiple expansion must carry the case.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: A low own-history percentile suggests valuation cheapness. The research reads it further: The current weekly PE is below its own median, but normalized earnings exclude elevated other income, so the apparent discount is less compelling on recurring profit.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: The trailing PE sits at a low own-history percentile and appears inexpensive. The research reads it further: Recurring earnings are lower after normalizing other income; the current operating margin is close to mid-cycle rather than a trough.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. Prestige-and-above momentum outside Maharashtra can lift mix and revenue per case. What proves it keeps working: Premium portfolio mix. It stops working if P&A growth outside Maharashtra slows while reported mix remains elevated only because Maharashtra volumes shrink.

Sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

United Spirits Ltd reported ₹2,708 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, −10.4% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 3.9% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹12,467 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹12,626 Cr.

Why this happened. Ex-Maharashtra P&A volume and NSV grew faster than the reported portfolio in Q1. This fits the Value Chain Climb model: consumers trade through the portfolio ladder, but the mechanism needs to remain visible in recurring operating profit.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹12,467 Cr (+3.3% on the year), capping 10 years at 3.9% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹2,708 Cr, −10.4% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +3.1% growth against the decade's 3.9% — the current year is running in line with its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +3.1% over the last 4 quarters against +5.2%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +24.4% vs +15.4%/yr — accelerating.

FY27-Q1. Revenue declined year on year while reported profit increased and operating margin fell.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

United Spirits Ltd's operating margin is 16.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, −5.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −32.0% to 19.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 16.0%, −5.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −32.0%–19.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −5.3 pp year on year while gross margin went −6.7 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

FY27-Q1. Revenue declined year on year while reported profit increased and operating margin fell.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

United Spirits Ltd earned ₹463 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +11.0% year on year. It is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹1,838 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 29.1%. That is 17.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹417 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹463 Cr, +11.0% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹1,838 Cr (+16.2%), and the 10-year compound rate is 29.1%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed −10.4% and the margin −5.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +25.0% vs revenue +3.1%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

FY27-Q1. Revenue declined year on year while reported profit increased and operating margin fell.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 94% of United Spirits Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹1,459 Cr of operating cash against ₹1,838 Cr of profit. After ₹−14.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹1,473 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹1,459 Cr against reported profit of ₹1,838 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹1,473 Cr after ₹−14.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 94% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 94%: the cash cycle tightened 48 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

United Spirits Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 129 days in FY26, down from 177 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹711 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹12,467 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹34.2 Cr, so roughly ₹4,406 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 106 days, inventory at 216 days — roughly 7.1 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 129 days, tighter than FY21's 177.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 216 days to sell; customers pay about 106 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 193 days — netting out to the 129-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹12,467 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹34.2 Cr — so the 129-day loop keeps roughly ₹4,406 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹711 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹847 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹77.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

United Spirits Ltd earns a ROCE of 26% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −24% in FY14. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +12.7 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 14.7% net margin on 0.86× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 26%, recovered from a FY14 trough of −24% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 14.7% net margin × 0.86× asset turns × 1.61× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 20.4% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 24.7% − 12.0% = a +12.7 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every rupee reinvested creates more than a rupee of value — the engine compounds.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

United Spirits Ltd carries total debt of ₹413 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹8,957 Cr as of Jun 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.05 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.12 in FY22 to 0.05 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Jun 26: total debt of ₹413 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹8,957 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.05. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.12 (FY22) to 0.05 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 3.1 points of United Spirits Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 17.1% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −2.2 points over the same window, to 12.9%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +3.1 points over 8 quarters to 17.1%; Foreign institutions: −2.2 points over 8 quarters to 12.9%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 56.7%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −2.2 points against domestic institutions +3.1 points over 8 quarters, with promoters holding steady — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

United Spirits Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

United Spirits Ltd trades at 54.8× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 12% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 70.7×, measured across 10.2 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 54.8× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 12% of the time, against a long-run median of 70.7× measured over 10.2 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +16.2% against a +6.5% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +13.1%/yr price move, ~+21.0%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−7.9 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +11.6%/yr price move, ~+28.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−17.3 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 25 August 2026 price, United Spirits Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 29.0% a year. Profit itself has compounded 29.1% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 54.8× P/E, the 12th percentile of its own 10-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is low against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is close to what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 25 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

United Spirits Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 28.3% and holding. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

4-Factor Sector Score

58.9/100 — rank 4 of 14 in Alcoholic Beverages · 100% evidence confidence

United Spirits Ltd scores 58.9 out of 100 against the 14 companies it is compared with in Alcoholic Beverages, ranking 4. Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 2.7%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 15.3 + 19.4 + 7.9 + 16.3 = 58.9. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What United Spirits Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

🚨 UK-India FTA Timeline Slippage · 15 May 2026. In the Jan 2026 call, management provided a specific timeline for the India-UK FTA, expecting British Parliament sign-off between March and May 2026 and stating the financial benefit - quantified at INR 110-120 crores annually - would begin flowing from the July-September 2026 quarter. In the May 2026 call, after the stated sign-off window has elapsed, management retreats to vague language and explicitly refuses to speculate on timing, offering no explanation for the missed deadline and leaving FY27 benefit assumptions unanchored.

McDowell's Competitive Weakness Understated in Prior Calls · 15 May 2026. The Oct 2025 call explicitly described McDowell's as reinforcing its leadership in the lower prestige segment with no mention of competitive share loss. The May 2026 call discloses share gaps over the last 6 to 7 quarters - a period that fully encompasses both prior calls - and announces a complete product reset covering the liquid, packaging, and format after testing with 10,000 consumers. Management's prior characterization of brand leadership is materially inconsistent with a multi-quarter share loss requiring a fundamental product overhaul of the world's largest whisky by volume.

A&P Spend Guidance Exceeded and Reset to a Higher Baseline · 15 May 2026. The Oct 2025 call issued a firm full-year FY26 A&P guidance of 9.5%-10.0% and stated explicitly it was unchanged. The Jan 2026 call gave only a mild warning that spending might be marginally above the top of the range. The May 2026 call reveals full-year A&P at 10.5% and establishes this as the forward run rate for FY27, permanently resetting the spend band above the original guided range with direct implications for EBITDA margin models built on the prior guidance.

Marketing Spend Guidance Revision · 21 January 2026. Management consistently maintained a strict full-year marketing spend guidance of 9.5-10% of net sales across both the August and October 2025 calls. However, in the latest call, management conceded they will likely exceed this cap, projecting to finish the year marginally higher than the previously stated upper limit. Earlier call (Oct 2025): “This, however, does not change our full year A&P guidance of 9.5%-10.0%.” Later call (Jan 2026): “My sense is that we will probably be around the higher end of the range, marginally higher than that on a full-year basis.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions