Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd trades at ₹633, in a confirmed uptrend and 16 weeks into that stage. That is +11.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 86% of a 52-week range of ₹397 to ₹670. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 1 straight week.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 16 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹633 it trades +11.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 86% of its 52-week range (₹397–₹670).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 2.2 years the stock moved +84% while the NIFTY 500 moved +0% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 1 straight week — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 31 May 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: Not stated in the research file. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 27 June 2026.

Our read, 31 May 2026. A mass-market distiller turning margin-led via premiumization and backward integration — FY26 delivered record PAT, but capex slippages and management consistency issues cloud the FY28 EBITDA path.

What is proven. A mass-market distiller turning margin-led via premiumization and backward integration — FY26 delivered record PAT, but capex slippages and management consistency issues cloud the FY28 EBITDA path.

What is not proven yet. Telangana license lottery created a 6-8 week pipeline disruption causing mass premium de-growth of 7.4% in Q3 FY26; Telangana receivables totaled Rs 700 Cr outstanding as of Nov 2025.

🚨 Layer 1 read, 27 June 2026 — DROP. Margin recovery banked, now richly priced and cash-negative — a value-trap with decelerating profit, ranked to the bottom. Revenue and OPM are still rising (Rs 1,007 Cr, 17%), but Q4 FY26 PAT fell -41% to Rs 38 Cr from Rs 64 Cr, three-year operating cash flow is negative (ACCRUAL_HEAVY) and the price (Rs 622) is ~5x the DCF recovery value of Rs 122 with EXTREME MoS — the engine flags value_trap. Management has missed four guided capex/ARR/EBITDA milestones and misrepresented its own prior EBITDA guidance, while a Telangana disruption ties up ~Rs 700 Cr of receivables.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. A second consecutive quarter of rising PAT with operating cash flow turning positive and Telangana receivables collected would invalidate the value-trap read; conversely, another quarter of PAT decline with revenue rolling over would escalate this from rank-bottom to a DROP-eligible fundamental contraction.

The test written in advance. State excise regulatory disruption (Telangana, Maharashtra model risk) — State excise regulatory disruption (Telangana, Maharashtra model risk) Telangana price increase announcement and Q2 FY27 revenue trend; Maharashtra volume trajectory Q1 FY27 by the next result.

The test written in advance. Backward integration timeline slippage (capex execution risk) — Backward integration timeline slippage (capex execution risk) Malt distillery commissioning announcement Q1-Q2 FY27; ENA expansion operational status H2 FY27 by the next result.

The test written in advance. Input cost headwinds (West Asia geopolitics, glass bottle inflation, fuel) — Input cost headwinds (West Asia geopolitics, glass bottle inflation, fuel) Q1 FY27 OPM trajectory vs Q4 FY26 17%; Telangana price increase approval date by the next result.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. P&A segment went from 42% revenue mix in Q2 FY25 to 57.7% in Q4 FY26; Iconic White 10.7 million cases FY26 in the prestige category. What proves it keeps working: Premiumization Mix Shift (P&A segment expansion). It stops working if Telangana price increase announcement and Q2 FY27 revenue trend; Maharashtra volume trajectory Q1 FY27.

Lever 8 · Demerger or value unlock — BUILDING. PET facility commissioned Q2 FY26 delivering ~75 bps gross margin accretion; 270 bps of the 300 bps Phase 1 target contingent on malt distillery (H1 FY27) and ENA expansion (H1 FY28) — both already slipped 1-2 quarters. What proves it keeps working: Backward Integration Margin Accretion (Phase 1). It stops working if Telangana price increase announcement and Q2 FY27 revenue trend; Maharashtra volume trajectory Q1 FY27.

Lever 10 · New geographies — BUILDING. Export revenue grew 14.1% to Rs 225 Cr FY26; footprint expanded from 14 to 36 countries in 24 months — asset-light model with higher margins than domestic. What proves it keeps working: International Expansion (Export Asset-Light Model). It stops working if Telangana price increase announcement and Q2 FY27 revenue trend; Maharashtra volume trajectory Q1 FY27.

Lever 3 · Management change — BUILDING. FY26 revenue grew 11.5% YoY but EBITDA grew 25.8% YoY — the leverage ratio is improving as fixed cost dilution accelerates with scale. What proves it keeps working: Operating Leverage on Revenue Scaling. It stops working if Telangana price increase announcement and Q2 FY27 revenue trend; Maharashtra volume trajectory Q1 FY27.

Sources: our stock research file (31 May 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd reported ₹979 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +6.1% year on year. That is the 8th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 6 years it has compounded at 4.6% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹3,923 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹3,979 Cr.

Why this happened. Export business operates on an asset-light distributor model with structurally higher margins than domestic IMFL. Country count expanded from 14 to 36 in 24 months. The UK FTA (if approved Q2 FY27) would create tariff benefit on premium scotch imports. CSD channel (12 million case annual market) approvals for four brands open a new domestic high-margin distribution track.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹3,923 Cr (+11.4% on the year), capping 6 years at 4.6% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹979 Cr, +6.1% year on year — the 8th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +8.1% growth against the decade's 4.6% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +7.9% over the last 4 quarters against +10.3%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit −12.5% vs +262.3%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd's operating margin is 12.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 6.0% to 14.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. The premiumization driver is the dominant earnings engine. P&A volume grew 20.5% YoY in Q4 FY26 (4.4 million cases), with P&A segment contributing 57.7% of quarterly sales value. The gross margin differential between P&A and mass premium means every percentage point of mix shift lifts blended margins. Iconic White's 10.7 million cases FY26 is the visible anchor of this thesis; the strategy extends to Officer's Choice Blue stabilization and ABD Maestro's luxury portfolio.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 12.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 6.0%–14.0%, and FY26's 14.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −0.3 pp year on year while gross margin went +2.8 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd earned ₹45.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −19.6% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹220 Cr. The 6-year compound rate is 60.2%. That is 4.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹56.0 Cr. 2 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Jun 26 profit was ₹45.0 Cr, −19.6% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹220 Cr (+12.8%), and the 6-year compound rate is 60.2%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +6.1% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −7.0% vs revenue +8.1%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years −31% of Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹362 Cr of operating cash against ₹220 Cr of profit. After ₹310 Cr of capital spending, ₹52.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹362 Cr against reported profit of ₹220 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹52.0 Cr after ₹310 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is −31% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at −31%: the cash cycle stretched 90 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 90 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 154 days in FY26, up from 64 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹608 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹3,923 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹10.7 Cr, so roughly ₹1,655 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 168 days, inventory at 221 days — roughly 7.3 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 154 days, looser than FY21's 64.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 221 days to sell; customers pay about 168 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 235 days — netting out to the 154-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹3,923 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹10.7 Cr — so the 154-day loop keeps roughly ₹1,655 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹608 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹198 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹110 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd earns a ROCE of 18% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 11% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −1.6 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 5.6% net margin on 0.94× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 18%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 11% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 5.6% net margin × 0.94× asset turns × 2.50× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 13.2% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 10.4% − 12.0% = a −1.6 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd carries total debt of ₹1,151 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,686 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.68. On the annual view that ratio went from 2.14 in FY22 to 0.68 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹1,151 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,686 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.68. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 2.14 (FY22) to 0.68 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 1.6 points of Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 5.1% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −0.6 points over the same window, to 3.2%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

Why this happened. Fixed cost base (employee, manufacturing, distribution overhead) is being diluted as the revenue base scales. The structural improvement in OPM from 7% in FY24 to 14% in FY26 has been driven primarily by this operating leverage combined with premiumization mix shift.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +1.6 points over 8 quarters to 5.1%; Foreign institutions: −0.6 points over 8 quarters to 3.2%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 80.9%.

Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (+1.6 points), absorbed on the other side by foreign institutions (−0.6 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd trades at 79.3× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (79th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 70.0×, measured across 1.9 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Why this happened. Phase 1 backward integration targets cumulative 300 bps EBITDA margin improvement by FY28. The PET facility has delivered the first 30 bps from Q3 FY26 onward. The remaining 270 bps require the malt distillery and ENA expansion to commission on schedule. Both have already slipped 1-2 quarters versus original commitments, introducing execution risk. Phase 2 (UP bottling, Maharashtra and Arunachal Pradesh) targets incremental 100 bps by FY29.

Today's P/E of 79.3× is at the pricey end of its own range (79th percentile), against a long-run median of 70.0× measured over 1.9 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +17.1% against a +15.9% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 29 June 2026 price, Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 34.9% a year. Profit itself has compounded 60.2% a year over the past 6 years. Today the market pays 79.3× P/E, the 79th percentile of its own 2-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 29 June 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE lifting at 31.0% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

4-Factor Sector Score

45.8/100 — rank 9 of 14 in Alcoholic Beverages · 93% evidence confidence

Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd scores 45.8 out of 100 against the 14 companies it is compared with in Alcoholic Beverages, ranking 9. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 14.3 + 14.7 + 4 + 12.8 = 45.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

ABD Maestro FY27 Revenue Outlook Reduced · 24 July 2026. In May 2026, management's next-year outlook for ABD Maestro was to cross 100 crores in annual top line. In July 2026, management instead described FY26 top line as 40 crores and said it would only double in FY27, implying about 80 crores; this is a material reduction from the prior target with no explanation.

Brand Reset Timeline Delayed · 24 July 2026. The prior calls indicated earlier FY27 packaging milestones for Officer's Choice Blue and Sterling Reserve B7. The latest call now targets Q3 FY27 for Officer's Choice Blue and Q4 FY27 for Sterling Reserve B7, representing material delays, particularly for B7, without any explanation for the revised timelines.

U.K. FTA Margin Benefit Estimate Reduced · 24 July 2026. In January 2026, management estimated that the U.K. FTA would add another 200 basis points by FY28. The latest call quantifies the benefit at only 130-140 basis points by FY28, a material reduction in a margin lever that supports the company's valuation framework, with no explanation for the change.

🚨 Backward Integration Project Timelines Slipped · 15 May 2026. The Nov 2025 call explicitly stated the Telangana malt distillery would be operational in Q4 FY26 and the Maharashtra ENA distillery in Q4 FY27, timelines the Jan 2026 call reaffirmed as on track. The May 2026 call - delivered after Q4 FY26 has already closed - now guides the malt distillery to H1 FY27 and ENA Maharashtra to H1 FY28, slippages of roughly one to two quarters each with no explanation provided, directly risking the 300 basis points EBITDA margin expansion commitment by FY28.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions