Tata Capital Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Tata Capital Ltd trades at ₹363, in a confirmed uptrend and 8 weeks into that stage. That is +5.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 83% of a 52-week range of ₹300 to ₹376. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 15 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 8 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹363 it trades +5.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 83% of its 52-week range (₹300–₹376).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 11 months the stock moved +10% while the NIFTY 500 moved −4% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 15 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Tata Capital Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 22 August 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: TROUGH operating cycle with expanding earnings. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 22 August 2026.

Our read, 22 August 2026. Tata Capital is compounding lending earnings through retail, SME and housing mix, but the investment case depends on credit costs, leverage and motor-finance recovery staying within management’s stated guardrails.

From the numbers. The deterministic lender lens places the operating cycle at a trough with rising earnings. This is not a trailing-PE story: the relevant question is whether current ROE can progress toward the through-cycle reference…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 8 — above its 200-day line.

From the research. Tata Capital is compounding lending earnings through retail, SME and housing mix, but the investment case depends on credit costs, leverage and motor-finance recovery staying within management’s stated guardrails.

🚨 Where they disagree. The deterministic lender lens places the operating cycle at a trough with rising earnings. This is not a trailing-PE story: the relevant question is whether current ROE can progress toward the through-cycle reference while credit costs and leverage remain controlled.

What is proven. Tata Capital is compounding lending earnings through retail, SME and housing mix, but the investment case depends on credit costs, leverage and motor-finance recovery staying within management’s stated guardrails.

What is not proven yet. The thesis breaks if consolidated AUM growth falls below management’s range while credit cost exceeds its guided corridor and motor-finance runoff does not convert into book growth by the second half of FY27.

🚨 What would change our mind. The thesis breaks if consolidated AUM growth falls below management’s range while credit cost exceeds its guided corridor and motor-finance runoff does not convert into book growth by the second half of FY27.

Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — KEEP. Profit up five quarters running as the lending spread widened 19% to 26% — but bought at full price. Tata Capital's quarterly profit has climbed without a break from Rs1,000 crore in Mar 2025 to Rs1,628 crore in Jun 2026, up 56.4% on the year, and I checked where it came from: the margin it keeps after paying for its money widened from 19% to 26% over those five quarters while non-operating income shrank to Rs4 crore, so this is core lending, not one-offs — a reading the zero one-off ledger backs up. Management is delivering what it promised on the two things that matter, credit cost at the guided 1.0% and loan-book growth of 22% against a 23-25% target. The catch is price and visibility: at 3.38 times book value on a 12.4% return on equity there is no valuation cushion, and the bad-loan…

What would change Layer 1’s mind. The lending spread narrowing for two consecutive quarters — financing margin falling back below 24% from the 26% it has held for two quarters — while loan-book growth also drops under the guided 23-25% range. That combination would mean the mix shift has stopped paying and the profit growth was a repricing window rather than a structural spread, and it is the sharpened version of the timeline's own kill-switch. A disclosed jump in bad loans would do it faster, but our source table cannot show…

Layer 2 read, 22 August 2026 — ADVANCE. The sector recovery reaches Tata, but valuation and motor-finance proof still limit the next step. Tata reported 22% AUM growth, 56% PAT growth and 1.0% credit cost. Outside the company, every sector call showed falling credit costs and the sector wind is TAILWIND. The external check supports ADVANCE, while concentration and the delayed motor turn keep the call at P2.

What would change Layer 2’s mind. Flip ADVANCE to DROP if Tata reports credit cost above its 1.0% corridor while motor-finance AUM is still contracting in the second half of FY27; that would show the sector recovery is not reaching this stock.

Layer 3 read, 22 August 2026 — BENCH. Core lending is improving, but the book-value rating already asks management to deliver almost everything. The DCF-based EXTREME MoS is the wrong lender test, but 3.38 times book on 12.4% return on equity still offers little room for mistakes. Credit cost is currently at the guided level, while the funding sweep warns of later margin pressure and the motor-finance restart has already been deferred.

What would change Layer 3’s mind. DEPLOY only if return on equity rises while credit cost stays within the 1.0% corridor and motor-finance AUM turns positive; a credit-cost breach would instead flip this to DROP.

The test written in advance. The thesis breaks if consolidated AUM growth falls below management’s range while credit cost exceeds its guided corridor and motor-finance runoff does not convert into book growth by the second half of FY27. — the thesis as written as stated by the next result.

The test written in advance. Credit-cost reversal in unsecured and motor finance — Credit-cost reversal in unsecured and motor finance Reported consolidated credit cost above 1.0% or a disclosed deterioration in stage-three assets. by the next result.

The test written in advance. Motor-finance turnaround remains unproven — Motor-finance turnaround remains unproven Motor-finance AUM remains below its June-quarter level by Q4 FY27. by the next result.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: The reported current price is ₹365. The research reads it further: Price alone does not establish value for a lender; it must be read with book value, P/BV and return on equity.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: A reported P/B of 3.38 can appear acceptable without a return comparison. The research reads it further: The separate weekly P/BV snapshot is 3.3 at its available-history median, while deterministic current ROE is about 12% versus a 15% through-cycle reference. The 3.38 company-info value and 3.3 weekly snapshot are different dated and rounded inputs, not interchangeable figures.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. Management’s AUM range and retail-plus-SME mix target create the primary earnings runway. What proves it keeps working: Retail and SME AUM expansion. It stops working if Consolidated AUM growth remains below the guided range for two consecutive reported quarters.

Sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fee and other income.

Tata Capital Ltd reported ₹8,822 Cr of income in the Jun 26 quarter, +15.1% year on year. That is the 4th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 5 years it has compounded at 26.3% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹31,566 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹32,695 Cr.

Why this happened. Management reported a large reduction in legacy net-AUM depletion. This remains a monitorable turnaround rather than a delivered driver because prior stabilization guidance was delayed.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹31,566 Cr (+11.5% on the year), capping 5 years at 26.3% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹8,822 Cr, +15.1% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +11.1% growth against the decade's 26.3% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

FY27-Q1. Reported revenue and profit increased year on year, extending the recent earnings progression.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every ₹100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. It is the cleanest single margin we can read for a lender.

Tata Capital Ltd's net margin is 18.5% in the Jun 26 quarter, +4.9 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 6 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 12.7% to 21.6%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Why this happened. High-margin disbursement growth is ahead of book growth, leaving a conversion milestone for the next two to three quarters.

The latest quarter's net margin is 18.5%, +4.9 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 6 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 12.7%–21.6%.

Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

FY27-Q1. Reported revenue and profit increased year on year, extending the recent earnings progression.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Tata Capital Ltd earned ₹1,628 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +56.4% year on year. It is the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹4,891 Cr. The 5-year compound rate is 31.5%. That is 18.5% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹1,041 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹1,628 Cr, +56.4% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹4,891 Cr (+33.8%), and the 5-year compound rate is 31.5%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +15.1% and the margin +4.9 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +30.6% vs revenue +11.1%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

FY27-Q1. Reported revenue and profit increased year on year, extending the recent earnings progression.

Why-sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) and the company’s own results for those quarters.

Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.

Tata Capital Ltd's gross NPA is 0.80% of the loan book in Sep 24. Net of provisions already set aside, 0.40% remains. Across the 1 quarters held here the book has ranged 0.80% to 0.80%. Falling NPAs are a loan book healing; rising NPAs are damage arriving.

Sep 24: gross NPA at 0.80% and net NPA at 0.40%. Over the 1 quarters we hold, the book's worst reading was 0.80% and its best is 0.80% — which is the current print.

The synthesis: profit growth at a bank is only as good as the book behind it, and this book is not yet on a clear healing streak. A note on depth: quarterly provisioning detail is not in our numbers yet, so this ladder reads levels and trend, not the cost of the cleanup.

Why the ladder moved: recoveries, write-offs and slippages each play a part, and that split sits below what we hold — the numbers show the healing; the driver mix does not travel with them.

The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book grows, revenue grows with it. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.

Tata Capital Ltd's revenue grew +11.5% in FY26 to ₹31,566 Cr, so the book is growing. The latest quarter ran +15.1% year on year. The net margin on that income is 18.5%, +4.9 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.

Why this happened. The lending growth case rests on management maintaining its AUM range while keeping retail and SME as the dominant portfolio mix. Incremental retail, SME and housing balances are intended to increase the contribution from higher-yield lending.

FY26 revenue was ₹31,566 Cr, +11.5% on the year, and the latest quarter ran +15.1% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 18.5% this quarter (+4.9 pp YoY) — growth with a widening margin on it.

The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — gross NPA is the loan-quality read we carry here.

Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.

Tata Capital Ltd earns a return on equity of 12% in FY26. Its trough over the ladder below was 11% in FY21. For a lender the balance sheet is the operating asset, so equity return and asset return have to be read together.

FY26 ROE came in at 12%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 11%. Return on assets is withheld on this page — its two source series disagree for this quarter. That return is below the bar a bank must clear to compound book value quickly — which is also the honest reason the stock trades where it does.

Why ROE moved: profit compounded 31.5% a year over 5 years while the equity base grew more slowly — earnings recovering faster than book value builds is what lifts ROE off a trough.

The quarterly return-on-equity and return-on-assets curves, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 35% on reported income across 8 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Debt

For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.

A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Tata Capital Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — .

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Tata Capital Ltd: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.

Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each ₹1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.

Tata Capital Ltd trades at 3.4× P/BV, mid-range by its own standards (43rd percentile). Its long-run median P/BV is 3.4×, measured across 0.6 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/BV of 3.4× is mid-range by its own standards (43rd percentile), against a long-run median of 3.4× measured over 0.6 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

The honest context for that discount: a bank earning about 12% on its equity is worth less per rupee of book, and the market has priced that in rather than overlooked it. The discount closes only if the returns themselves improve.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year book value grew while the price moved +9.7% — price and book moved together, holding the multiple in its range.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.

The PEG ratio, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 35% on reported income across 8 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 24 August 2026 price, Tata Capital Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 19.9% a year. Profit itself has compounded 31.5% a year over the past 5 years. Today the market pays 3.4× P/BV, the 43rd percentile of its own 1-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is unremarkable against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is below what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 24 August 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Tata Capital Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 4 quarters across 1 curve, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

4-Factor Sector Score

48.3/100 — rank 9 of 9 in Conglomerate Backed NBFC · 44% evidence confidence · provisional, ranked below fully-evidenced peers

Tata Capital Ltd scores 48.3 out of 100 against the 9 companies it is compared with in Conglomerate Backed NBFC, ranking 9. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 17.4 + 13.6 + 7.3 + 10 = 48.3. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Tata Capital Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

FY28 Cost-to-Income Guidance Revised Lower · 28 July 2026. In the Jan 2026 call, management guided to a FY28 cost-to-income ratio of 33%-34%. In the Jul 2026 call, the FY28 target was revised to 30%-32%, a material change in the efficiency outlook that was not reconciled with the earlier guidance.

Leverage Strategy Shift from De-risking to Higher Target Debt-to-Equity · 28 July 2026. In Jan 2026, management characterized the decline in debt-to-equity from 6.1x to 5.1x as continued balance-sheet de-risking. By Jul 2026, management said it was targeting consolidated debt-to-equity of 6.2x to 6.3x, implying a reversal toward materially higher leverage without explaining the change in capital structure strategy.

🚨 Motor Finance AUM Fails to Stabilize as Guided · 23 April 2026. In the October 2025 call, management committed that the Motor Finance loan book would stabilize by Q4 FY26 and start growing from Q1 FY27. By January 2026, this had already been pushed to H1 FY27. The April 2026 call confirmed Q4 FY26 saw yet another 4% sequential AUM decline, with management acknowledging growth is 'lagging by about a quarter'—confirming the original Q4 stabilization commitment was missed, with the effective growth start date now pushed further into Q2 FY27 or later. Later call (Apr 2026): “The AUM stood at 25,390 crores, a sequential decline of 4%, reflecting our fitness-first approach. Even though positive growth in AUM is lagging by about a quarter, the underlying momentum is improving.”

Housing Finance 1 Lakh Crore AUM Milestone Quietly Dropped · 23 April 2026. The October 2025 call contained a specific commitment to reaching approximately INR 1 lakh crore in Housing Finance AUM by the middle of FY27 (September 2026), when AUM stood at INR 75,636 crores. Neither the January 2026 call (AUM: INR 81,585 crores) nor the April 2026 call (AUM: INR 86,653 crores) re-affirmed or addressed this milestone despite detailed housing finance performance discussions in both; at the current 29% YoY growth rate, the September 2026 AUM trajectory falls short of 1 lakh crore, making the silence on this specific target meaningful. Later call (Apr 2026): “Our AUM grew 29% year-on-year to 86,653 crores, while profit after tax increased 34% year-on-year, reflecting both scale expansion and sustained earnings quality.”

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

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