HDB Financial Services Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

HDB Financial Services Ltd trades at ₹686, in a downtrend and 57 weeks into that stage. That is −3.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 50% of a 52-week range of ₹590 to ₹784. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 10 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 57 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹686 it trades −3.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 50% of its 52-week range (₹590–₹784).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.1 years the stock moved −19% while the NIFTY 500 moved +0% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 10 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each ₹1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.

P/BV does not price HDB Financial Services Ltd — earnings are negative, so there is no multiple to rank against its own history. The revenue and margin lines below are where a turn, when it comes, would show first. On sales the market values HDB Financial Services Ltd at 3.5× its FY25 revenue of ₹16,300 Cr.

With earnings negative, P/BV does not price — there is no multiple to rank against its own history. The revenue and margin lines below are where the turn, when it comes, will show first.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year book value grew while the price moved −8.3% — price and book moved together, holding the multiple in its range.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

HDB Financial Services Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROE holding at 15.0% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 9 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

56.9/100 — rank 2 of 8 in Conglomerate Backed NBFC · 65% evidence confidence

HDB Financial Services Ltd scores 56.9 out of 100 against the 8 companies it is compared with in Conglomerate Backed NBFC, ranking 2. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 19.8 + 16.5 + 12.6 + 8 = 56.9. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fee and other income.

HDB Financial Services Ltd reported ₹4,266 Cr of income in the Mar 25 quarter, +16.3% year on year. That is the 4th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 7 years it has compounded at 12.8% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at ₹16,300 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹14,140 Cr.

FY25 revenue came in at ₹16,300 Cr (+15.0% on the year), capping 7 years at 12.8% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 25) printed ₹4,266 Cr, +16.3% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +51.2% growth against the decade's 12.8% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +83.6% over the last 4 quarters against +43.8%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +3.7% vs +18.2%/yr — rolling over.

Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every ₹100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. It is the cleanest single margin we can read for a lender.

HDB Financial Services Ltd's net margin is 12.4% in the Mar 25 quarter, −5.5 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 13.2% to 17.4%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's net margin is 12.4%, −5.5 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 13.2%–17.4%.

Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

HDB Financial Services Ltd earned ₹531 Cr of net profit in the Mar 25 quarter, −19.1% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹2,176 Cr. The 7-year compound rate is 12.9%. That is 12.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹601 Cr.

Mar 25 profit was ₹531 Cr, −19.1% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed ₹2,176 Cr (−11.6%), and the 7-year compound rate is 12.9%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +16.3% and the margin −5.5 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +0.6% vs revenue +51.2%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.

Loan-book quality history is not available for HDB Financial Services Ltd, so this section names the gap rather than estimating a ratio. No gross or net non-performing-asset series is filed in a form this page can read, and none is inferred from the profit line. The income, margin and return sections above carry the evidence this business does report.

We do not hold quarterly loan-book quality numbers for this bank, so this section states that plainly rather than working around it.

Why: loan-book quality is the engine room of a bank, and its drivers — slippages, recoveries, provisioning — sit below what we hold for this name; the sections around it carry the reads we can stand behind.

The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book grows, revenue grows with it. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.

HDB Financial Services Ltd's revenue grew +15.0% in FY25 to ₹16,300 Cr, so the book is growing. The latest quarter ran +16.3% year on year. The net margin on that income is 12.4%, −5.5 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.

FY25 revenue was ₹16,300 Cr, +15.0% on the year, and the latest quarter ran +16.3% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 12.4% this quarter (−5.5 pp YoY) — growth with a narrowing margin on it.

The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — gross NPA is the loan-quality read we carry here.

Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.

HDB Financial Services Ltd earns a return on equity of 15% in FY25. Its trough over the ladder below was 15% in FY18. For a lender the balance sheet is the operating asset, so equity return and asset return have to be read together.

FY25 ROE came in at 15%, recovered from a FY18 trough of 15%. On assets, the latest reading is about null% — every ₹100 the bank deploys earns roughly null a year. That clears the bar a bank must beat for its book value to compound.

Why ROE moved: profit compounded 12.9% a year over 7 years while the equity base grew more slowly — earnings recovering faster than book value builds is what lifts ROE off a trough.

Debt

For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.

A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of HDB Financial Services Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — .

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

HDB Financial Services Ltd: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.

Frequently asked questions