Siemens Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Siemens Ltd trades at ₹3,760, in a confirmed uptrend and 16 weeks into that stage. That is +9.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 91% of a 52-week range of ₹2,900 to ₹3,844. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (8 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 16 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹3,760 it trades +9.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 91% of its 52-week range (₹2,900–₹3,844).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +528% while the NIFTY 500 moved +274% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (8 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-19) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Siemens Ltd trades at 47.7× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (70th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 42.4×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 47.7× is at the pricey end of its own range (70th percentile), against a long-run median of 42.4× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +30.8% against a +24.4% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +27.4%/yr price move, ~+24.1%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+3.3 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +17.4%/yr price move, ~+16.4%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+1.0 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

The PEG ratio and its quarterly curve, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 38% on reported income across 13 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Siemens Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE holding at 16.0% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 10 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

48.6/100 — rank 10 of 19 in Capital Goods - Electric General · 78% evidence confidence

Siemens Ltd scores 48.6 out of 100 against the 19 companies it is compared with in Capital Goods - Electric General, ranking 10. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 15.9 + 17.3 + 7.3 + 8.1 = 48.6. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Siemens Ltd reported ₹4,618 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +14.6% year on year. That is the 4th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 8.7% a year. The last full year, Mar 26, came in at ₹24,846 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹17,696 Cr.

Mar 26 revenue came in at ₹24,846 Cr (+45.4% on the year), capping 10 years at 8.7% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹4,618 Cr, +14.6% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +13.5% growth against the decade's 8.7% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +13.4% over the last 4 quarters against −2.3%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit −40.3% vs −18.4%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Siemens Ltd's operating margin is 10.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, −1.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 1.1% to 14.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 10.0%, −1.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 1.1%–14.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −1.4 pp year on year while gross margin went −4.6 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Siemens Ltd earned ₹370 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −36.4% year on year. Full-year Mar 26 profit was ₹2,754 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is −0.6%. That is 8.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹582 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹370 Cr, −36.4% year on year. On the full year, Mar 26 printed ₹2,754 Cr (+30.8%), and the 10-year compound rate is −0.6%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +14.6% and the margin −1.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −39.9% vs revenue +13.5%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 20% of Siemens Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In Mar 26 that was ₹−535 Cr of operating cash against ₹2,754 Cr of profit. Cash resolution here is annual, because quarterly cash statements are not published.

Mar 26: operating cash of ₹−535 Cr against reported profit of ₹2,754 Cr. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 20% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at 20%: the cash cycle stretched 31 days between FY21 and Mar 26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 31 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Siemens Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 23 days in Mar 26, up from −8 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹532 Cr over the last 3 years. At Mar 26 sales of ₹24,846 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹68.1 Cr, so roughly ₹1,566 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

Mar 26: debtors at 57 days, inventory at 60 days — roughly 2.0 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 23 days, looser than FY21's −8.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 60 days to sell; customers pay about 57 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 94 days — netting out to the 23-day cycle.

In money terms: at Mar 26 sales of ₹24,846 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹68.1 Cr — so the 23-day loop keeps roughly ₹1,566 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹532 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹844 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹206 Cr (FY25) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Siemens Ltd earns a ROCE of 21% in Mar 26. That is up from a trough of 11% in FY20. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 11.1% net margin on 1.17× asset turns.

Mar 26 ROCE is 21%, recovered from a FY20 trough of 11% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (Mar 26): 11.1% net margin × 1.17× asset turns × 1.53× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 19.9% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 38% on reported income across 13 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Siemens Ltd carries ₹307 Cr of borrowings against ₹13,840 Cr of equity in Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.02. Operating profit covers the interest bill 83×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹4.0 Cr to ₹307 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹532 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

Mar 26: borrowings of ₹307 Cr against equity of ₹13,840 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.02. Operating profit covers the interest bill 83×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹4.0 Cr to ₹307 Cr while capital spending ran ₹532 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 38% on reported income across 13 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 2.1 points of Siemens Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 6.5% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +2.1 points over the same window, to 9.1%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −2.1 points over 8 quarters to 6.5%; Domestic institutions: +2.1 points over 8 quarters to 9.1%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 75.0%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −2.1 points against domestic institutions +2.1 points over 8 quarters, with promoters holding steady — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Siemens Ltd: the Z-score is withheld — it comes from the second data source this page could not reconcile, and a solvency score is not worth printing on a number two sources dispute. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is withheld — it comes from the second data source this page could not reconcile, and a solvency score is not worth printing on a number two sources dispute.

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