Foseco India Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Foseco India Ltd trades at ₹5,134, in a confirmed uptrend and 5 weeks into that stage. That is +3.2% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 36% of a 52-week range of ₹4,386 to ₹6,452. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 2 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 5 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹5,134 it trades +3.2% versus its 200-day average and sits at 36% of its 52-week range (₹4,386–₹6,452).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +337% while the NIFTY 500 moved +276% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 2 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Foseco India Ltd trades at 39.7× P/E, against too little history to rank. Its long-run median P/E is 43.8×, measured across 0.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 39.7× is against too little history to rank, against a long-run median of 43.8× measured over 0.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −16.1% against a −4.1% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Foseco India Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 15.9% and holding. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

4-Factor Sector Score

57.4/100 — rank 6 of 20 in Chemicals - Organic · 83% evidence confidence

Foseco India Ltd scores 57.4 out of 100 against the 20 companies it is compared with in Chemicals - Organic, ranking 6. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 18.6 + 14.9 + 11.1 + 12.8 = 57.4. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Foseco India Ltd reported ₹202 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +35.6% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 1 years it has compounded at 22.5% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at ₹643 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹691 Cr.

FY25 revenue came in at ₹643 Cr (+22.5% on the year), capping 1 years at 22.5% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹202 Cr, +35.6% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +25.7% growth against the decade's 22.5% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +31.6% over the last 4 quarters against +20.4%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +16.2% vs +8.5%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Foseco India Ltd's operating margin is 20.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across the last four quarters the operating margin has moved +3.0 percentage points.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 20.0%, +2.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 2 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 17.0%–19.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +3.7 pp year on year while gross margin went +6.3 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Foseco India Ltd earned ₹33.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +50.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹75.0 Cr. The 1-year compound rate is 2.7%. That is 16.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹20.0 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹33.0 Cr, +50.0% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed ₹75.0 Cr (+2.7%), and the 1-year compound rate is 2.7%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +35.6% and the margin +2.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +11.7% vs revenue +25.7%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 2 fiscal years 95% of Foseco India Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was ₹98.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹75.0 Cr of profit. After ₹744 Cr of capital spending, ₹−646 Cr was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of ₹98.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹75.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−646 Cr after ₹744 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 2 fiscal years the conversion rate is 95% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 95%: the cash cycle held roughly steady between FY24 and FY25 — so conversion tracks profitability rather than the cycle.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 57.2× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Foseco India Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs −22 days in FY25, down from −22 days in FY24. Capital spending ran ₹744 Cr over the last 1 years. At FY25 sales of ₹643 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹1.8 Cr, so roughly ₹−39.0 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY25: debtors at 87 days, inventory at 57 days — roughly 1.9 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of −22 days, tighter than FY24's −22.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 57 days to sell; customers pay about 87 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 166 days — netting out to the −22-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY25 sales of ₹643 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹1.8 Cr — so the −22-day loop keeps roughly ₹−39.0 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹744 Cr over the last 1 fiscal years against ₹13.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹4.0 Cr (FY25) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Foseco India Ltd earns a ROCE of 17% in FY25. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −2.5 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 11.7% net margin on 0.47× asset turns.

FY25 ROCE is 17%.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 11.7% net margin × 0.47× asset turns × 1.32× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 7.3% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 9.5% − 12.0% = a −2.5 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Foseco India Ltd carries total debt of ₹3.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,120 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.00 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.00 in FY24 to 0.00 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹3.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,120 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.00. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.00 (FY24) to 0.00 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 11.4 points of Foseco India Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 63.5% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +0.2 points over the same window, to 0.4%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −11.4 points over 8 quarters to 63.5%; Domestic institutions: +0.2 points over 8 quarters to 0.4%; Foreign institutions: −0.1 points over 8 quarters to 0.1%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−11.4 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Foseco India Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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