Coal India Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Coal India Ltd trades at ₹407, in a confirmed uptrend and 30 weeks into that stage. That is −5.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 29% of a 52-week range of ₹376 to ₹482. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (10 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 30 of stage 2. At ₹407 it trades −5.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 29% of its 52-week range (₹376–₹482).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +31% while the NIFTY 500 moved +284% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (10 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-19) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Coal India Ltd trades at 8.0× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (57th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 7.5×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 8.0× is mid-range by its own standards (57th percentile), against a long-run median of 7.5× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −12.4% against a +5.9% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +23.1%/yr price move, ~+17.8%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+5.3 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +1.9%/yr price move, ~+8.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−7.0 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

The PEG ratio and its quarterly curve, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 86% on reported income across 16 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Coal India Ltd reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — profit and EPS growth are shrinking (profit growth −5.9% latest against +21.5% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE slipping at 35.0%. The read is built from 9 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

4-Factor Sector Score

46.5/100 — rank 9 of 13 in Mining/Minerals · 82% evidence confidence

Coal India Ltd scores 46.5 out of 100 against the 13 companies it is compared with in Mining/Minerals, ranking 9. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 6.8 + 20.7 + 11.6 + 7.4 = 46.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Coal India Ltd reported ₹46,255 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +7.8% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 8.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,68,400 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,57,856 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,68,400 Cr (−0.5% on the year), capping 10 years at 8.0% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹46,255 Cr, +7.8% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +5.6% growth against the decade's 8.0% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +6.1% over the last 4 quarters against +4.8%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit −5.9% vs −9.2%/yr — accelerating.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Coal India Ltd's operating margin is 26.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, −3.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 11.0% to 33.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 26.0%, −3.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 11.0%–33.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −3.2 pp year on year while gross margin went −3.8 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Coal India Ltd earned ₹8,850 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.7% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹31,071 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 8.1%. That is 19.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹8,788 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹8,850 Cr, +0.7% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹31,071 Cr (−12.4%), and the 10-year compound rate is 8.1%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +7.8% and the margin −3.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −8.3% vs revenue +5.6%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 88% of Coal India Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹43,215 Cr of operating cash against ₹31,071 Cr of profit. After ₹16,269 Cr of capital spending, ₹26,946 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹43,215 Cr against reported profit of ₹31,071 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹26,946 Cr after ₹16,269 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 88% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 88%: the cash cycle tightened 49 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 2.1× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Coal India Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 31 days in FY26, down from 80 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹54,460 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹1,68,400 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹461 Cr, so roughly ₹14,302 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 31 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 31 days, tighter than FY21's 80.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹1,68,400 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹461 Cr — so the 31-day loop keeps roughly ₹14,302 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹54,460 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹25,964 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹23,413 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Coal India Ltd earns a ROCE of 35% in FY26. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 18.5% net margin on 0.59× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 35%.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 18.5% net margin × 0.59× asset turns × 2.38× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 26.0% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The quarterly return curves and the return-on-invested-capital overlay, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 86% on reported income across 16 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Coal India Ltd carries ₹14,072 Cr of borrowings against ₹1,19,102 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.12. Operating profit covers the interest bill 31×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹5,884 Cr to ₹14,072 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹54,460 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹14,072 Cr against equity of ₹1,19,102 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.12. Operating profit covers the interest bill 31×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹5,884 Cr to ₹14,072 Cr while capital spending ran ₹54,460 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

The total-debt and debt-to-equity series, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 86% on reported income across 16 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 2.0 points of Coal India Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 61.1% of the company. Foreign institutions moved +2.0 points over the same window, to 10.4%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −2.0 points over 8 quarters to 61.1%; Foreign institutions: +2.0 points over 8 quarters to 10.4%; Domestic institutions: −0.9 points over 8 quarters to 22.2%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−2.0 points), absorbed on the other side by foreign institutions (+2.0 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Coal India Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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