TOYO Co., Ltd.
TOYOTOYO Co., Ltd.'s earnings have outrun its stock. EPS grew +3.7% in a year against a −10.5% price move.
Biggest watch item: the price is not yet in a confirmed uptrend — timing risk, not thesis risk.
The price is between stages. Underneath, the last four quarters read improving — profit +50.0% year on year, and 189% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: the next one or two quarters of delivery.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
TOYO Co., Ltd. trades at $5.5, between stages. That is −36.5% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 6% of a 52-week range of $5 to $16. On relative strength it is currently behind the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view (7 weeks and counting).
Today the stock is between stages. At $5.5 it trades −36.5% versus its 200-day average and sits at 6% of its 52-week range ($5–$16).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.1 years the stock moved +50% while the S&P 500 moved +24% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (7 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-18) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.
TOYO Co., Ltd. trades at 2.6× P/E, against too little history to rank. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/E of 2.6× is against too little history to rank. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +3.7% against a −10.5% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.
Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.
Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
TOYO Co., Ltd. reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read.
Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.
One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.
Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.
Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +138.9% | — | — | — |
| Profit | +0.0% | — | — | — |
| EPS | +3.7% | — | — | — |
| Stock price | −10.5% | — | — | — |
4-Factor Sector Score
42.2/100 — rank 8 of 10 in Solar · 32% evidence confidence · provisional, ranked below fully-evidenced peers
TOYO Co., Ltd. scores 42.2 out of 100 against the 10 companies it is compared with in Solar, ranking 8. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 16.4 + 10.7 + 11.5 + 3.6 = 42.2. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.
TOYO Co., Ltd. reported $0.3 B of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +625.0% year on year. Over 2 years it has compounded at 167.7% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $0.4 B. The last four reported quarters add to $0.6 B.
FY25 revenue came in at $0.4 B (+138.9% on the year), capping 2 years at 167.7% compound. The latest quarter (Dec 25) printed $0.3 B, +625.0% year on year.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +197.2% growth against the decade's 167.7% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.
Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.
TOYO Co., Ltd.'s operating margin is 17.2% in the Dec 25 quarter, +42.2 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across the last four quarters the operating margin has moved +0.5 percentage points. Across 3 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 5.6% to 16.7%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.
The latest quarter's operating margin is 17.2%, +42.2 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 3 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 5.6%–16.7%.
Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.5 pp year on year while gross margin went −9.2 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
TOYO Co., Ltd. earned $0.0 B of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +50.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.0 B. The 2-year compound rate is 100.0%. That is 10.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.0 B.
Dec 25 profit was $0.0 B, +50.0% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.0 B (+0.0%), and the 2-year compound rate is 100.0%.
Why profit moved: revenue contributed +625.0% and the margin +42.2 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.
Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +16.7% vs revenue +197.2%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.
Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.
Over the last 3 fiscal years 189% of TOYO Co., Ltd.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $0.1 B of operating cash against $0.0 B of profit. After $0.1 B of capital spending, $0.0 B was left as free cash.
FY25: operating cash of $0.1 B against reported profit of $0.0 B, leaving free cash of $0.0 B after $0.1 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 189% of profit.
Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.
Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.
Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.
Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).
TOYO Co., Ltd. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $0.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 0.0% of FY25 revenue a year.
Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.
On the investment side: capital spending of $0.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.
The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.
Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.
TOYO Co., Ltd. earns a ROE of 36% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 17% in FY23. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +29.2 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 9.3% net margin on 0.98× asset turns.
FY25 ROE is 36%, recovered from a FY23 trough of 17% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.
Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 9.3% net margin × 0.98× asset turns × 4.00× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 36.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.
The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 38.0% − 8.8% = a +29.2 pp spread. The 8.8% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every dollar reinvested creates more than a dollar of value — the engine compounds.
Dividend
TOYO Co., Ltd. pays no dividend. Across the last 5 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.
TOYO Co., Ltd. does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 5 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.
Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.
Debt-to-equity is 0.84 at the latest reading — modestly levered; a full borrowings history is not in our numbers.
We hold only the latest reading here: a debt-to-equity of 0.84 — a modest level of leverage behind the returns above. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so we say that rather than draw a chart we cannot support.
Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.
15.1% of TOYO Co., Ltd.'s tradable float is currently sold short — a large bloc is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 2.0 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.
The latest reading: 15.1% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 2.0 days to buy those positions back. A large bloc is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.
Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
TOYO Co., Ltd.: the Z-score reads 2.22. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits in the grey band between the two. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.
Why it matters: a Z-score of 2.22 sits in the grey band — neither clearly safe nor clearly distressed.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 2.22.
| Company | Score | Price stage | Growth & earnings/35 | Capital efficiency/25 | Valuation/20 | Relative strength/20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1First Solar, Inc.FSLR | 60.8/100Thin evidence · provisional56% evidence | TURNING | 19.5/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 6.9 pp 39% evidence | 16.1/25 ROCE 4.2% · OPM 33.1% 76% evidence | 10.8/20 P/E 14.5× · PEG — 15% evidence | 14.4/20 RS sector 6.4% · RS bench -5% · 1Y 31.9%7 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 19.5 + 16.1 + 10.8 + 14.4 = 60.8 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 2Shoals Technologies Group, Inc.SHLS | 56.8/100Thin evidence · provisional55% evidence | FADING | 18.5/35 Revenue 38.1% · PAT 70% · OPM change 0.1 pp 40% evidence | 11.8/25 ROCE 1% · OPM 5.5% 57% evidence | 12.0/20 P/E 32.9× · PEG 1.27 65% evidence | 14.5/20 RS sector 8.7% · RS bench -3.6% · 1Y 95.3%9 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 18.5 + 11.8 + 12 + 14.5 = 56.8 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 3Enphase Energy, Inc.ENPH | 55.6/100Thin evidence · provisional56% evidence | TURNING | 17.5/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change -19.5 pp 39% evidence | 12.3/25 ROCE 2.4% · OPM -10.5% 76% evidence | 9.5/20 P/E 49.2× · PEG — 15% evidence | 16.3/20 RS sector 7.6% · RS bench -4.7% · 1Y 28.8%10 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 17.5 + 12.3 + 9.5 + 16.3 = 55.6 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 4SolarEdge Technologies, Inc.SEDG | 52.3/100Thin evidence · provisional51% evidence | TURNING | 19.0/35 Revenue 35.5% · PAT — · OPM change 29.1 pp 40% evidence | 6.4/25 ROCE -3.8% · OPM -17.7% 57% evidence | 8.5/20 P/E 156× · PEG — 15% evidence | 18.4/20 RS sector 20.8% · RS bench 6.4% · 1Y 95.5%7 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 19 + 6.4 + 8.5 + 18.4 = 52.3 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 5Nextpower Inc.NXT | 49.2/100Thin evidence · provisional56% evidence | ASLEEP | 15.2/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change -3.7 pp 39% evidence | 17.5/25 ROCE 6.9% · OPM 17.4% 76% evidence | 10.2/20 P/E 29.2× · PEG — 15% evidence | 6.3/20 RS sector -1% · RS bench -13.2% · 1Y 75.1%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 15.2 + 17.5 + 10.2 + 6.3 = 49.2 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 6Canadian Solar Inc.CSIQ | 47.1/100Thin evidence · provisional51% evidence | FADING | 18.1/35 Revenue -6.6% · PAT — · OPM change 11.4 pp 40% evidence | 10.8/25 ROCE 0.8% · OPM 6.8% 57% evidence | 10.5/20 P/E 20.6× · PEG — 15% evidence | 7.7/20 RS sector -5.6% · RS bench -16.3% · 1Y 40.6%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 18.1 + 10.8 + 10.5 + 7.7 = 47.1 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 7Sunrun Inc.RUN | 40.4/100Thin evidence · provisional51% evidence | ASLEEP | 20.1/35 Revenue 52.4% · PAT — · OPM change 16.8 pp 40% evidence | 7.3/25 ROCE -0.2% · OPM -6% 57% evidence | 11.2/20 P/E 6.4× · PEG — 15% evidence | 1.8/20 RS sector -30.7% · RS bench -37.8% · 1Y -6.9%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 20.1 + 7.3 + 11.2 + 1.8 = 40.4 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 8TOYO Co., Ltd.this pageTOYO | 42.2/100Thin evidence · provisional32% evidence | BASING | 16.4/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change — 9% evidence | 10.7/25 ROCE 0% · OPM — 46% evidence | 11.5/20 P/E 5.2× · PEG — 15% evidence | 3.6/20 RS sector -28.8% · RS bench -38.3% · 1Y 15.9%5 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 16.4 + 10.7 + 11.5 + 3.6 = 42.2 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 9Tigo Energy, Inc.TYGO | 40.1/100Thin evidence · provisional45% evidence | ASLEEP | 19.3/35 Revenue 74.6% · PAT — · OPM change 11.5 pp 40% evidence | 6.0/25 ROCE -7.4% · OPM -9.6% 57% evidence | 8.8/20 P/E 94× · PEG — 15% evidence | 6.0/20 RS sector -20.5% · RS bench -31.4% · 1Y 55.7%1 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 19.3 + 6 + 8.8 + 6 = 40.1 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
| 10Array Technologies, Inc.ARRY | 37.6/100Thin evidence · provisional45% evidence | ASLEEP | 13.5/35 Revenue 13.2% · PAT — · OPM change -5.8 pp 40% evidence | 9.9/25 ROCE 0.7% · OPM 3.2% 57% evidence | 9.2/20 P/E 85.5× · PEG — 15% evidence | 5.0/20 RS sector -27.1% · RS bench -35% · 1Y 9.3%2 of 12 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 13.5 + 9.9 + 9.2 + 5 = 37.6 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral. | ||||||
Missing observations are not scored as bad. Their missing weight lowers confidence and pulls the final score toward neutral. PEG is not shown when the ratio cannot mean anything: the company must be making a profit, its price-to-earnings must be positive, and its three-year earnings growth must fall between 5% and 60%. Dividing a price multiple by a loss, or by growth measured off a tiny base, produces a number that looks precise and tells you nothing. Under relative strength, one mark per week shows the last 12 weeks: a mark is filled where the company led S&P 500 by 5% or more over the 13 weeks ending that week, which is the same test used everywhere on this site. Price stage places the company on the same six-step curve the sector itself is placed on — basing, turning, breaking out, leader, fading, asleep — read from how many weeks running it has led S&P 500 and whether that lead is widening or shrinking. It describes where the PRICE stands, not the earnings trajectory and not a recommendation, and it is left blank for a company whose weekly history is too short or too stale to read.
Frequently asked questions
What is TOYO Co., Ltd.'s stock price today?
TOYO Co., Ltd. trades at $5.5, −10.5% over the past year. The company is valued at $0.0 B. The stock sits at 6% of its 52-week range of $5–$16, −36.5% versus its 200-day average. Against the S&P 500 it has been behind on a trailing-13-week view for 7 weeks. — as of 5 August 2026.
What were TOYO Co., Ltd.'s latest quarterly results?
TOYO Co., Ltd. reported revenue of $0.3 B and net profit of $0.0 B for the Dec 25 quarter. Revenue rose 625.0% and profit rose 50.0% year on year. Earnings per share were $1.03. The operating margin was 17.2%, 42.2 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is TOYO Co., Ltd.'s revenue?
TOYO Co., Ltd. reported revenue of $0.3 B in the Dec 25 quarter, +625.0% year on year. For the full FY25 fiscal year, revenue was $0.4 B (+138.9%). Over the last 2 years revenue compounded at 167.7% a year. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is TOYO Co., Ltd.'s profit?
TOYO Co., Ltd. earned $0.0 B of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +50.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.0 B. The operating margin ran 17.2% in the latest quarter. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is TOYO Co., Ltd.'s market cap?
TOYO Co., Ltd.'s market capitalisation is $0.0 B at a stock price of $5.5. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 5 August 2026.
Does TOYO Co., Ltd. pay a dividend?
No — TOYO Co., Ltd. has declared no dividend per share in any of its last 5 reported quarters, so there is no payout history and no yield to quote. That is a reading of the filed statements, not an estimate. — as of 5 August 2026.
Is TOYO Co., Ltd. growing?
Yes — TOYO Co., Ltd. is growing: latest-quarter revenue +625.0% year on year, profit +50.0%, and the margin +42.2 pp at 17.2%. The 2-year compound rates are 167.7% (revenue) and 100.0% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 5 August 2026.
How is TOYO Co., Ltd. performing?
TOYO Co., Ltd.'s latest readings are below. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 625.0% and profit rose 50.0% year on year. Against the S&P 500 it has been behind on a trailing-13-week view for 7 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 5 August 2026.
Is TOYO Co., Ltd. beating the market?
Not lately — on a trailing-13-week view TOYO Co., Ltd. is currently behind the S&P 500 (7 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-18), the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 1.1 years the stock moved +50% against the S&P 500's +24% — ahead of the index over the full window. — as of 5 August 2026.
Will TOYO Co., Ltd.'s stock price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for TOYO Co., Ltd. What it measures instead: the stock price is $5.5. Direction is not something this site claims to know. — as of 5 August 2026.
Is the market betting against TOYO Co., Ltd.?
Yes — short interest is 15.1% of TOYO Co., Ltd.'s tradable float, about 2.0 days to cover at typical volumes. A crowded short: a large bloc is positioned against it. With no quarter-by-quarter holder register here, short interest is the cleanest crowd read we hold — as of 5 August 2026.
Does TOYO Co., Ltd. have too much debt?
It is moderate — TOYO Co., Ltd.'s debt-to-equity is 0.84. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so the latest reading is the cleanest hold. Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind — as of 5 August 2026.
What is TOYO Co., Ltd.'s capex?
TOYO Co., Ltd. spent $0.0 B on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY25 alone that was $0.1 B. — as of 5 August 2026.
What is TOYO Co., Ltd.'s cash flow?
TOYO Co., Ltd. generated $0.1 B of operating cash flow in FY25 and $0.0 B of free cash flow after $0.1 B of capital spending. Reported profit that year was $0.0 B, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. — as of 5 August 2026.
Is TOYO Co., Ltd.'s profit real cash?
Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 189% of TOYO Co., Ltd.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY25, operating cash was $0.1 B against reported profit of $0.0 B. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 5 August 2026.
How financially safe is TOYO Co., Ltd.?
On the balance sheet, the Z-score reads 2.22 — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the distress zone. That is in the grey band — neither clearly safe nor clearly distressed. — as of 5 August 2026.
Where is TOYO Co., Ltd. in its business cycle?
TOYO Co., Ltd.'s FY25 operating margin was 14.0%, against a 3-year band of 5.6%–16.7%: mid-band by its own history — neither the peak that precedes mean-reversion nor the trough that precedes recovery. The latest quarter ran 17.2%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 5 August 2026.
What could break the TOYO Co., Ltd. story?
Biggest watch item: the price is not yet in a confirmed uptrend — timing risk, not thesis risk. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 5 August 2026.
Is TOYO Co., Ltd. a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: TOYO Co., Ltd.'s earnings have outrun its stock. EPS grew +3.7% in a year against a −10.5% price move. The sharpest open question: the next one or two quarters of delivery. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 5 August 2026.