Novartis AG

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Novartis AG trades at $153, in a confirmed uptrend and 65 weeks into that stage. That is +4.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 66% of a 52-week range of $123 to $169. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 3 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 65 of stage 2. At $153 it trades +4.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 66% of its 52-week range ($123–$169).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +87% while the S&P 500 moved +263% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 3 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

Novartis AG trades at 22.9× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (74th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 17.8×, measured across 4.3 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 22.9× is at the pricey end of its own range (74th percentile), against a long-run median of 17.8× measured over 4.3 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +21.8% against a +32.9% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +14.6%/yr price move, ~+22.7%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−8.1 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: Topping out Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Novartis AG reads as topping out on its fundamental arc. Topping out — revenue and profit growth have decelerated hard (revenue growth +12.9% at its peak → +2.7% latest) while ROCE still reads 21.0%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: decelerating from a peak is where good stories quietly end — the multiple usually notices late.

4-Factor Sector Score

42.1/100 — rank 9 of 16 in Drug Manufacturers - General · 85% evidence confidence

Novartis AG scores 42.1 out of 100 against the 16 companies it is compared with in Drug Manufacturers - General, ranking 9. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 11.4 + 16.1 + 7.1 + 7.5 = 42.1. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Novartis AG reported $14.9 B of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.7% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at 6.5% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $56.7 B. The last four reported quarters add to $56.7 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $56.7 B (+9.6% on the year), capping 4 years at 6.5% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed $14.9 B, +0.7% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +2.8% growth against the decade's 6.5% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +2.7% over the last 4 quarters against +7.7%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit −6.5% vs +12.4%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Novartis AG's operating margin is 31.8% in the Jun 26 quarter, −0.9 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 18.3% to 31.1%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 31.8%, −0.9 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 18.3%–31.1%, and FY25's 31.1% is the top of that band — a record year.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −0.9 pp year on year while gross margin went −2.4 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Novartis AG earned $3.3 B of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −18.9% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $14.0 B. The 4-year compound rate is −11.6%. That is 21.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $4.0 B.

Jun 26 profit was $3.3 B, −18.9% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $14.0 B (+17.0%), and the 4-year compound rate is −11.6%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +0.7% and the margin −0.9 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −5.8% vs revenue +2.8%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 149% of Novartis AG's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $19.1 B of operating cash against $14.0 B of profit. After $1.6 B of capital spending, $17.6 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $19.1 B against reported profit of $14.0 B, leaving free cash of $17.6 B after $1.6 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 149% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Novartis AG does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $4.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 2.4% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $4.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

Novartis AG earns a ROE of 30% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 10% in FY22. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +12.5 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 24.7% net margin on 0.51× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is 30%, recovered from a FY22 trough of 10% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 24.7% net margin × 0.51× asset turns × 2.38× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 30.0% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 18.8% − 6.3% = a +12.5 pp spread. The 6.3% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every dollar reinvested creates more than a dollar of value — the engine compounds.

Dividend A dividend is cash paid out per share. Dividend per share is the declared amount for the period; the trailing twelve-month total is the four most recent quarters added together.

Novartis AG has 3 quarters of declared dividends on file — too few for a trailing-twelve-month figure. The most recent declaration was $4.67 for Dec 25.

Novartis AG has declared a dividend in 3 of the last 12 reported quarters, most recently $4.67 for Dec 25. That is fewer than four quarters, so no trailing-twelve-month total is shown rather than one built from a partial year.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Novartis AG carries total debt of $49.0 B against shareholder equity of $42.0 B as of Jun 26, a debt-to-equity of 1.17. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.46 in FY21 to 0.76 in FY25. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Jun 26: total debt of $49.0 B against shareholder equity of $42.0 B — a debt-to-equity of 1.17. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.46 (FY21) to 0.76 (FY25). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

No ownership or positioning reading is held for Novartis AG, so this section names the gap rather than filling it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 2.7 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

We hold no ownership or positioning reading for this stock, so this section says that plainly.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Novartis AG: the Z-score reads 3.36. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 3.36 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 3.36.

Frequently asked questions