Sundram Fasteners Ltd
SUNDRMFASTSundram Fasteners Ltd's earnings have outrun its stock. EPS grew +9.6% in a year against a −0.1% price move.
The sharpest disagreement: Promoters moved −1.6 points over 8 quarters while the operating story went the other way — someone close to the numbers is not convinced.
The price is in a downtrend (85 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 40th percentile of its own 10-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read improving — profit +29.8% year on year, and 111% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether the register turns back in the story’s favour.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
Sundram Fasteners Ltd trades at ₹977, in a downtrend and 85 weeks into that stage. That is +7.3% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 78% of a 52-week range of ₹763 to ₹1,038. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 9 straight weeks.
Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 85 of stage 4. At ₹977 it trades +7.3% versus its 200-day average and sits at 78% of its 52-week range (₹763–₹1,038).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +572% while the NIFTY 500 moved +276% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 9 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.
Sundram Fasteners Ltd trades at 34.0× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (40th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 36.0×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/E of 34.0× is mid-range by its own standards (40th percentile), against a long-run median of 36.0× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +9.6% against a −0.1% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.
The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +5.1%/yr price move, ~+11.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−6.1 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +17.4%/yr price move, ~+11.5%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+5.9 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.
Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.
Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
Sundram Fasteners Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 19.1% and holding. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.
Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +5.6% | +3.6% | +11.5% | +6.8% |
| Profit | +9.4% | +5.9% | +10.3% | +16.8% |
| EPS | +9.6% | +6.1% | +10.5% | +16.7% |
| Share price | −0.1% | −7.6% | +5.1% | +17.4% |
4-Factor Sector Score
37.1/100 — rank 5 of 5 in Auto Ancillaries - Engine Parts · 94% evidence confidence
Sundram Fasteners Ltd scores 37.1 out of 100 against the 5 companies it is compared with in Auto Ancillaries - Engine Parts, ranking 5. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 13.2 + 12.1 + 6.2 + 5.6 = 37.1. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.
Sundram Fasteners Ltd reported ₹1,693 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +10.6% year on year. That is the 9th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 6.8% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹6,289 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹6,288 Cr.
FY26 revenue came in at ₹6,289 Cr (+5.6% on the year), capping 10 years at 6.8% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹1,693 Cr, +10.6% year on year — the 9th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +5.5% growth against the decade's 6.8% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.
Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +5.6% over the last 4 quarters against +5.3%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +9.4% vs +6.3%/yr — accelerating.
Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.
Sundram Fasteners Ltd's operating margin is 15.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 7.0% to 18.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
The latest quarter's operating margin is 15.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 7.0%–18.0%.
Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.5 pp year on year while gross margin went −0.6 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
Sundram Fasteners Ltd earned ₹161 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +29.8% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹593 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 16.8%. That is 9.5% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹124 Cr.
Mar 26 profit was ₹161 Cr, +29.8% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹593 Cr (+9.4%), and the 10-year compound rate is 16.8%.
Why profit moved: revenue contributed +10.6% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.
Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +9.9% vs revenue +5.5%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.
Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.
Over the last 3 fiscal years 111% of Sundram Fasteners Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹837 Cr of operating cash against ₹593 Cr of profit. After ₹398 Cr of capital spending, ₹439 Cr was left as free cash.
FY26: operating cash of ₹837 Cr against reported profit of ₹593 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹439 Cr after ₹398 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 111% of profit.
Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.
Why conversion sits at 111%: the cash cycle stretched 63 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.
Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 1.8× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.
Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).
Sundram Fasteners Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 173 days in FY26, up from 110 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹1,190 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹6,289 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹17.2 Cr, so roughly ₹2,981 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.
FY26: debtors at 89 days, inventory at 175 days — roughly 5.8 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 173 days, looser than FY21's 110.
The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 175 days to sell; customers pay about 89 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 91 days — netting out to the 173-day cycle.
In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹6,289 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹17.2 Cr — so the 173-day loop keeps roughly ₹2,981 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.
On the investment side: capital spending of ₹1,190 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹673 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹112 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.
The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.
Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.
Sundram Fasteners Ltd earns a ROCE of 18% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 15% in FY14. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +0.5 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 9.4% net margin on 1.06× asset turns.
FY26 ROCE is 18%, recovered from a FY14 trough of 15% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.
Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 9.4% net margin × 1.06× asset turns × 1.39× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 13.8% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.
The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 12.5% − 12.0% = a +0.5 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.
Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.
Sundram Fasteners Ltd carries total debt of ₹625 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹4,298 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.15 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.29 in FY22 to 0.15 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.
Mar 26: total debt of ₹625 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹4,298 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.15. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.29 (FY22) to 0.15 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.
Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.
Domestic institutions added 3.6 points of Sundram Fasteners Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 22.3% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −1.8 points over the same window, to 11.4%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.
The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +3.6 points over 8 quarters to 22.3%; Foreign institutions: −1.8 points over 8 quarters to 11.4%; Promoters: −1.6 points over 8 quarters to 46.9%.
Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −1.8 points against domestic institutions +3.6 points over 8 quarters, with promoters −1.6 points — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
Sundram Fasteners Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.
| Company | Score | Price stage | Growth & earnings/35 | Capital efficiency/25 | Valuation/20 | Relative strength/20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1India Nippon Electricals LtdINDNIPPON | 61.7/100Mixed-positive evidence94% evidence | TURNING | 27.2/35 Revenue 26.4% · PAT 35.4% · OPM change 0 pp 100% evidence | 11.0/25 ROCE 17% · OPM 12% 100% evidence | 13.4/20 P/E 29× · PEG 0.42 100% evidence | 10.1/20 RS sector -8.1% · RS bench 32.1% · 1Y 51.4%9 of 11 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 27.2 + 11 + 13.4 + 10.1 = 61.7 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 2Banco Products (India) LtdBANCOINDIA | 55.5/100Mixed-positive evidence94% evidence | TURNING | 14.4/35 Revenue 21.3% · PAT 22.6% · OPM change -4 pp 100% evidence | 23.0/25 ROCE 30.9% · OPM 20% 100% evidence | 13.5/20 P/E 19.6× · PEG 0.28 100% evidence | 4.6/20 RS sector -11.6% · RS bench -4.4% · 1Y 3.8%5 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 14.4 + 23 + 13.5 + 4.6 = 55.5 · Decision use: Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity. | ||||||
| 3Triton Valves Ltd505978 | 50.4/100Mixed-positive evidence75% evidence | LEADER | 27.1/35 Revenue 18.4% · PAT 89.8% · OPM change 1.6 pp 95% evidence | 5.1/25 ROCE 11.4% · OPM 7.2% 76% evidence | 8.5/20 P/E 49.6× · PEG — 15% evidence | 9.7/20 RS sector 1.1% · RS bench 20.3% · 1Y 54.1%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 27.1 + 5.1 + 8.5 + 9.7 = 50.4 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
| 4SPR Auto Technologies LtdSHRIPISTON | 50.0/100Mixed-positive evidence100% evidence | LEADER | 10.2/35 Revenue 25.6% · PAT 8.9% · OPM change -3 pp 100% evidence | 15.9/25 ROCE 20.8% · OPM 18% 100% evidence | 8.2/20 P/E 34.2× · PEG 1.4 100% evidence | 15.7/20 RS sector 16.4% · RS bench 38.7% · 1Y 81.8%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence |
| Exact sum: 10.2 + 15.9 + 8.2 + 15.7 = 50 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 38.7%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation. | ||||||
| 5Sundram Fasteners Ltdthis pageSUNDRMFAST | 37.1/100Mixed-negative evidence94% evidence | TURNING | 13.2/35 Revenue 5.6% · PAT 9.4% · OPM change 0 pp 100% evidence | 12.1/25 ROCE 17.6% · OPM 15% 100% evidence | 6.2/20 P/E 34× · PEG 5.37 100% evidence | 5.6/20 RS sector -20.1% · RS bench 5% · 1Y -2.6%4 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence |
| Exact sum: 13.2 + 12.1 + 6.2 + 5.6 = 37.1 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction. | ||||||
Missing observations are not scored as bad. Their missing weight lowers confidence and pulls the final score toward neutral. PEG is not shown when the ratio cannot mean anything: the company must be making a profit, its price-to-earnings must be positive, and its three-year earnings growth must fall between 5% and 60%. Dividing a price multiple by a loss, or by growth measured off a tiny base, produces a number that looks precise and tells you nothing. Under relative strength, one mark per week shows the last 12 weeks: a mark is filled where the company led NIFTY 500 by 5% or more over the 13 weeks ending that week, which is the same test used everywhere on this site. Price stage places the company on the same six-step curve the sector itself is placed on — basing, turning, breaking out, leader, fading, asleep — read from how many weeks running it has led NIFTY 500 and whether that lead is widening or shrinking. It describes where the PRICE stands, not the earnings trajectory and not a recommendation, and it is left blank for a company whose weekly history is too short or too stale to read.
Frequently asked questions
What is Sundram Fasteners Ltd's share price today?
Sundram Fasteners Ltd trades at ₹977, −0.1% over the past year. The company is valued at ₹20,539 Cr. The stock sits at 78% of its 52-week range of ₹763–₹1,038, +7.3% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a downtrend, 85 weeks in. — as of 31 July 2026.
What were Sundram Fasteners Ltd's latest quarterly results?
Sundram Fasteners Ltd reported revenue of ₹1,693 Cr and net profit of ₹161 Cr for the Mar 26 quarter. Revenue rose 10.6% and profit rose 29.8% year on year. Earnings per share were ₹7.68. The operating margin was 15.0%, 0.0 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 31 July 2026.
What is Sundram Fasteners Ltd's revenue?
Sundram Fasteners Ltd reported revenue of ₹1,693 Cr in the Mar 26 quarter, +10.6% year on year. For the full FY26 fiscal year, revenue was ₹6,289 Cr (+5.6%). Over the last 10 years revenue compounded at 6.8% a year. — as of 31 July 2026.
What is Sundram Fasteners Ltd's profit?
Sundram Fasteners Ltd earned ₹161 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +29.8% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹593 Cr. The operating margin ran 15.0% in the latest quarter. — as of 31 July 2026.
What is Sundram Fasteners Ltd's market cap?
Sundram Fasteners Ltd's market capitalisation is ₹20,539 Cr at a share price of ₹977. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 31 July 2026.
What is Sundram Fasteners Ltd's P/E ratio?
Sundram Fasteners Ltd trades at a P/E of 34.0×, at the 40th percentile of its own 10-year range, against a long-run median of 36.0×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 31 July 2026.
Does Sundram Fasteners Ltd pay a dividend?
Yes — Sundram Fasteners Ltd's dividend payout was 28% of profit in FY26, and it recorded a payout in each of its last 13 reported fiscal years. This page holds the payout ratio, not a per-share amount. — as of 31 July 2026.
Is Sundram Fasteners Ltd overvalued?
On its own history, Sundram Fasteners Ltd looks mid-range against its own history: its P/E of 34.0× sits at the 40th percentile of its 10-year range (long-run median 36.0×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. — as of 31 July 2026.
Is Sundram Fasteners Ltd growing?
Yes — Sundram Fasteners Ltd is growing: latest-quarter revenue +10.6% year on year, profit +29.8%, and the margin +0.0 pp at 15.0%. The 10-year compound rates are 6.8% (revenue) and 16.8% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 31 July 2026.
How is Sundram Fasteners Ltd performing?
Sundram Fasteners Ltd is in a downtrend, 85 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 10.6% and profit rose 29.8% year on year. Against the NIFTY 500 it has been ahead on a trailing-13-week view for 9 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 31 July 2026.
What stage is Sundram Fasteners Ltd in?
Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 19.1% and holding. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +5.6% latest, profit growth +9.4% latest, eps growth +9.7% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 31 July 2026.
Is Sundram Fasteners Ltd in an uptrend?
No — the price is in a downtrend (week 85 of stage 4), trading +7.3% versus its 200-day average and at 78% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 31 July 2026.
Is Sundram Fasteners Ltd beating the market?
On recent form, yes — Sundram Fasteners Ltd has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 9 straight weeks, the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +572% against the NIFTY 500's +276% — ahead of the index over the full window. — as of 31 July 2026.
Will Sundram Fasteners Ltd's share price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for Sundram Fasteners Ltd. What it measures instead: the share price is ₹977, the price is in a downtrend 85 weeks in. Its P/E of 34.0× sits at the 40th percentile of its own 10-year range. — as of 31 July 2026.
Who owns Sundram Fasteners Ltd?
Promoters hold 46.9% of Sundram Fasteners Ltd, foreign institutions 11.4%, domestic institutions 22.3% and the public 19.3% (latest quarter). The biggest move on the register over the last two years: Domestic institutions added 3.6 points over 8 quarters. — as of 31 July 2026.
Does Sundram Fasteners Ltd have too much debt?
No — Sundram Fasteners Ltd's debt-to-equity is 0.15, and operating profit covers the interest bill 26×. FY26 borrowings were ₹625 Cr against equity of ₹4,275 Cr. The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed — as of 31 July 2026.
What is Sundram Fasteners Ltd's capex?
Sundram Fasteners Ltd spent ₹1,190 Cr on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY26 alone that was ₹398 Cr, with ₹112 Cr in capital work-in-progress — capacity paid for but not yet earning. — as of 31 July 2026.
What is Sundram Fasteners Ltd's cash flow?
Sundram Fasteners Ltd generated ₹837 Cr of operating cash flow in FY26 and ₹439 Cr of free cash flow after ₹398 Cr of capital spending. Reported profit that year was ₹593 Cr, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. Cash-flow resolution for India is annual. — as of 31 July 2026.
Is Sundram Fasteners Ltd's profit real cash?
Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 111% of Sundram Fasteners Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY26, operating cash was ₹837 Cr against reported profit of ₹593 Cr. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 31 July 2026.
Where is Sundram Fasteners Ltd in its business cycle?
Sundram Fasteners Ltd's FY26 operating margin was 16.0%, against a 13-year band of 7.0%–18.0%: mid-band by its own history — neither the peak that precedes mean-reversion nor the trough that precedes recovery. The latest quarter ran 15.0%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 31 July 2026.
What could break the Sundram Fasteners Ltd story?
The sharpest disagreement: Promoters moved −1.6 points over 8 quarters while the operating story went the other way — someone close to the numbers is not convinced. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 31 July 2026.
Is Sundram Fasteners Ltd a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: Sundram Fasteners Ltd's earnings have outrun its stock. EPS grew +9.6% in a year against a −0.1% price move. The sharpest open question: whether the register turns back in the story’s favour. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 31 July 2026.