Novartis India Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Novartis India Ltd trades at ₹2,393, in a confirmed uptrend and 24 weeks into that stage. That is +86.4% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 100% of a 52-week range of ₹769 to ₹2,393. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 8 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 24 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹2,393 it trades +86.4% versus its 200-day average and sits at 100% of its 52-week range (₹769–₹2,393).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.5 years the stock moved +277% while the NIFTY 500 moved +273% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 8 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Novartis India Ltd trades at 60.4× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (82nd percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 30.4×, measured across 10.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 60.4× is at the pricey end of its own range (82nd percentile), against a long-run median of 30.4× measured over 10.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −7.7% against a +160.7% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +23.3%/yr price move, ~+33.8%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−10.5 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +12.7%/yr price move, ~−4.7%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+17.4 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

What the price assumes This reading works the multiple backwards. It asks one question: what yearly rate of profit growth is a buyer at the market price already paying for? The number is the growth rate that makes eleven years of profit — six years growing, then five fading — add up to that day's market price, once each year is discounted at 11% a year.

Solved at its 13 June 2026 price, Novartis India Ltd was paying for profit growth of about 20.9% a year. Profit itself has compounded −7.3% a year over the past 10 years. Today the market pays 60.4× P/E, the 82nd percentile of its own 11-year range.

What the two numbers say together. The multiple is full against its own past, and the growth the price is paying for is above what this company has actually delivered.

How to hold this number: it is a reading of one day's price, taken on 13 June 2026, not a running figure — every other number on this page, the multiple included, is read off the live quote as of 11 September 2026. A higher price is paying for more growth and a lower price for less, so it moves whenever the price does, and this page does not restate it between measurements.

Stage: Topping out Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Novartis India Ltd reads as topping out on its fundamental arc. Topping out — profit and EPS growth have decelerated hard (profit growth +45.3% at its peak → −4.9% latest) while ROCE still reads 16.0%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: decelerating from a peak is where good stories quietly end — the multiple usually notices late.

4-Factor Sector Score

47.7/100 — rank 6 of 8 in Pharma - MNC bulk Drugs · 100% evidence confidence

Novartis India Ltd scores 47.7 out of 100 against the 8 companies it is compared with in Pharma - MNC bulk Drugs, ranking 6. Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 118.6%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 14.1 + 7.8 + 5.8 + 20 = 47.7. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Novartis India Ltd reported ₹104 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +18.2% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at −6.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹354 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹371 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹354 Cr (−0.6% on the year), capping 10 years at −6.5% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹104 Cr, +18.2% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +5.6% growth against the decade's −6.5% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +5.4% over the last 4 quarters against +4.9%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit −4.9% vs +2.7%/yr — rolling over.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Novartis India Ltd's operating margin is 34.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +3.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −1.1% to 27.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 34.0%, +3.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −1.1%–27.0%, and FY26's 27.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +2.5 pp year on year while gross margin went −0.2 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Novartis India Ltd earned ₹32.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +14.3% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹93.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is −7.3%. That is 30.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹28.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹32.0 Cr, +14.3% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹93.0 Cr (−7.9%), and the 10-year compound rate is −7.3%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +18.2% and the margin +3.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −3.9% vs revenue +5.6%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 84% of Novartis India Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹47.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹93.0 Cr of profit. After ₹0.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹47.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹47.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹93.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹47.0 Cr after ₹0.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 84% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 84%: the cash cycle stretched 17 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Novartis India Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 36 days in FY26, up from 19 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹−9.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹354 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹1.0 Cr, so roughly ₹35.0 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 38 days, inventory at 98 days — roughly 3.2 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 36 days, looser than FY21's 19.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 98 days to sell; customers pay about 38 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 101 days — netting out to the 36-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹354 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹1.0 Cr — so the 36-day loop keeps roughly ₹35.0 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹−9.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹7.0 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Novartis India Ltd earns a ROCE of 16% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 5% in FY20. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +33.5 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 26.3% net margin on 0.36× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 16%, recovered from a FY20 trough of 5% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 26.3% net margin × 0.36× asset turns × 1.20× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 11.4% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 45.5% − 12.0% = a +33.5 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every rupee reinvested creates more than a rupee of value — the engine compounds.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Novartis India Ltd carries total debt of ₹3.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹818 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.00 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.03 in FY22 to 0.00 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹3.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹818 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.00. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.03 (FY22) to 0.00 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Novartis India Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Promoters moved +0.0 points over the same window, to 70.7%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +0.9 points over 8 quarters to 1.4%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 70.7%; Foreign institutions: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 0.1%.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Novartis India Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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