Sector Alpha Week of 2026-07-31
Sector Alpha — machine-written from the numbers · Data as of 2026-07-31

Novartis India Ltd

NOVARTIND
Pharma - MNC bulk Drugs

Novartis India Ltd's price has outrun its earnings. +59.7% in a year against EPS −7.7% — the market is paying now for delivery later.

The sharpest disagreement: the price moved +59.7% in a year while annual EPS moved −7.7% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings.

The price is in a confirmed uptrend (18 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 69th percentile of its own 10-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read improving — profit +14.3% year on year, and 84% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved.

Stage
Topping out
fundamental trajectory, 12 quarters
Price
₹1,544
+59.7% 1Y
P/E
38.8×
69th pctile
of its own 10-year range
Revenue (Jun 26)
₹104 Cr
+18.2% YoY
Profit (Jun 26)
₹32.0 Cr
+14.3% YoY
Operating margin
34.0%
+3.0 pp YoY
ROCE
16%
FY26
ROIC
47.0%
vs WACC 12.0% → +35.0 pp
Cash conversion
84%
of profit, last 3 FY
01 · Price story

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Novartis India Ltd trades at ₹1,544, in a confirmed uptrend and 18 weeks into that stage. That is +34.2% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 88% of a 52-week range of ₹769 to ₹1,647. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 2 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 18 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹1,544 it trades +34.2% versus its 200-day average and sits at 88% of its 52-week range (₹769–₹1,647).

Jul 26: ₹1,544 Weekly closing price (₹) with 50- and 200-day averages; shaded bands mark the price stage (grey base, green advance, amber top, red decline). 3-year window.
+34.2% versus the 200-day line, week 18 of stage 2
Price50-day avg200-day avg
S2S2S4S2S4S2₹1,727₹1,438₹1,150₹861₹573₹1,544₹1,151Jul 23May 24Feb 25Nov 25Jul 26
S2S2S4S2S4S2₹1,727₹1,438₹1,150₹861₹573₹1,544₹1,151Jul 23Feb 25Jul 26
Beating or trailing, week by week since 2016 Each cell is one week from 2016 to now (551 weeks): the stock's trailing 13-week return minus the NIFTY 500's, green ahead / red behind (±25% ramp). Grey cells are the 13-week warm-up or weeks where the NIFTY 500 reading is not held.
trailing 13-week return vs the NIFTY 500
Feb 16Jul 26

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +144% while the NIFTY 500 moved +282% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 2 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

02 · Valuation

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Novartis India Ltd trades at 38.8× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (69th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 30.3×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 38.8× is mid-range by its own standards (69th percentile), against a long-run median of 30.3× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

P/E 38.8× vs a 30.3× long-run median P/E, weekly (left axis); earnings per share, trailing twelve months, weekly (right axis). 10.4-year window; loss-period spikes above 91× shown pinned at the top. The eps (ttm) bars are red where the reading is lower than the quarter before.
mid-range by its own standards (69th percentile)
P/EMedianEPS (TTM) (quarterly)
97.4×₹77.273.6×₹57.949.9×₹38.626.1×₹19.32.3×₹0.0×39.00×₹40Feb 16Oct 18Jun 21Feb 24Jul 26
97.4×₹77.273.6×₹57.949.9×₹38.626.1×₹19.32.3×₹0.0×39.00×₹40Feb 16Jun 21Jul 26
PEG 1.56 PEG ratio per quarter — the P/E divided by the earnings-growth rate. The dashed line marks 1.0: below it the growth is cheap against the multiple, above it the price already prices the growth in. Computed here as quarter-end P/E ÷ trailing-twelve-month EPS growth (only quarters with positive growth), because a reported quarterly PEG is not held for this stock. Last 8 quarters.
above 1.0, the multiple already banks the growth
PEGPEG = 1.0
2.4×1.8×1.3×0.7×0.1××1.56×Q2 FY24Q3 FY24Q2 FY25Q1 FY26Q3 FY26
2.4×1.8×1.3×0.7×0.1××1.56×Q2 FY24Q2 FY25Q3 FY26
P/E
38.8×
69th percentile of 10y
PEG
n/m
not derivable — 3-year earnings growth unavailable

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −7.7% against a +59.7% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +10.0%/yr price move, ~+36.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−26.2 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +8.2%/yr price move, ~−4.7%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+12.9 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

03 · Stage: Topping out

Stage: Topping out Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Novartis India Ltd reads as topping out on its fundamental arc. Topping out — profit and EPS growth have decelerated hard (profit growth +45.3% at its peak → −4.9% latest) while ROCE still reads 16.0%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Growth, year by year: revenue −0.6% in FY26, profit −7.9% Year-over-year growth per fiscal year, %: revenue (left axis); net profit and EPS (right axis — profit growth swings far wider). Zero line drawn.
Revenue YoYProfit YoYEPS YoY
8.5%172%0.6%94%−7.2%16%−15%−62%−23%−141%%%−0.6%−7.9%FY16FY21FY26
8.5%172%0.6%94%−7.2%16%−15%−62%−23%−141%%%−0.6%−7.9%FY16FY21FY26
Three growth curves, twelve quarters Year-on-year growth of trailing-twelve-month revenue (left axis), profit and EPS (right axis — they swing far wider), % at each quarter-end. A missing point means that reading is not held for the quarter.
the trajectory the stage is read from · revenue stabilising, profit rolling over
RevenueProfitEPS
8.9%82%0.5%55%−7.9%29%−16%1.8%−25%−25%%%5.4%−4.9%−4.9%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
8.9%82%0.5%55%−7.9%29%−16%1.8%−25%−25%%%5.4%−4.9%−4.9%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
ROCE Trailing-twelve-month operating profit (before interest and tax) as a share of average capital employed — total assets minus current liabilities, the standard textbook basis, %.
the return curve, computed quarterly
ROCE
18.2%17.5%16.8%16.0%15.3%%16%Sep 23Mar 24Dec 24Sep 25Jun 26
18.2%17.5%16.8%16.0%15.3%%16%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
Revenue growth
Flat
latest +5.4% · span −22.4% to +6.6%
Profit growth
Falling
latest −4.9% · span −16.5% to +74.5%
EPS growth
Falling
latest −4.9% · span −17.5% to +73.9%
ROCE
Steady high
latest 16.0% · span 15.5%–18.0%

Why it matters: decelerating from a peak is where good stories quietly end — the multiple usually notices late.

Compound annual growth rate (%) Compound annual growth rate over each window, %. Revenue, profit and EPS from fiscal-year figures; share price is the price CAGR over the same spans. A dash = that window is not held, or the base was a loss.
1yr3yr5yr10yr
Revenue−0.6%−2.2%−1.5%−6.5%
Profit−7.9%−3.3%+34.7%−7.3%
EPS−7.7%−3.4%+34.9%−4.8%
Share price+59.7%+27.9%+10.0%+8.2%
Revenue YoY (Jun 26)
+18.2%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Profit YoY (Jun 26)
+14.3%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Revenue 10y
−6.5%
long-run compound pace
04 · 4-Factor Sector Score

4-Factor Sector Score

46.8/100 — rank 6 of 8 in Pharma - MNC bulk Drugs · 100% evidence confidence

Novartis India Ltd scores 46.8 out of 100 against the 8 companies it is compared with in Pharma - MNC bulk Drugs, ranking 6. Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 49%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 13.3 + 6.9 + 6.6 + 20 = 46.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

05 · Revenue

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Novartis India Ltd reported ₹104 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +18.2% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at −6.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹354 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹371 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹354 Cr (−0.6% on the year), capping 10 years at −6.5% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹104 Cr, +18.2% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

FY26 revenue ₹354 Cr (−0.6% YoY) Revenue bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 11-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
−6.5% a year over 10 years
RevenueYoY growth
7458.5%5590.6%373−7.2%186−15%0−23%₹ Cr%₹354−0.6%FY16FY21FY26
7458.5%5590.6%373−7.2%186−15%0−23%₹ Cr%₹354−0.6%FY16FY21FY26
Jun 26: ₹104 Cr (+18.2% YoY) Quarterly revenue bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
2nd straight quarter of growth
Revenue (quarterly)YoY growth
11221%849.7%56−2.2%28−14%0−26%₹ Cr%₹10418.2%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
11221%849.7%56−2.2%28−14%0−26%₹ Cr%₹10418.2%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +5.6% growth against the decade's −6.5% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +5.4% over the last 4 quarters against +4.9%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit −4.9% vs +2.7%/yr — rolling over.

06 · Operating margin

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Novartis India Ltd's operating margin is 34.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +3.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −1.1% to 27.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 34.0%, +3.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −1.1%–27.0%, and FY26's 27.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +2.5 pp year on year while gross margin went −0.2 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

FY26: 27.0% Operating margin by fiscal year, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). 13-year window.
the widest a −1.1–27.0% band over 13 years
operating marginYoY change (pp)
29%11%21%6.9%13%2.6%4.8%−1.8%−3.3%−6.1%%%27%1%FY14FY20FY26
29%11%21%6.9%13%2.6%4.8%−1.8%−3.3%−6.1%%%27%1%FY14FY20FY26
Jun 26: 34.0% operating margin (+3.0 pp YoY) Quarterly operating margin, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). Last 12 quarters. Operating profit as a share of revenue, per quarter.
Operating marginYoY change (pp)
36%17%30%11%24%4.5%18%−1.6%12%−7.7%%%34%3%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
36%17%30%11%24%4.5%18%−1.6%12%−7.7%%%34%3%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
07 · Net profit

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Novartis India Ltd earned ₹32.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +14.3% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹93.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is −7.3%. That is 30.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹28.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹32.0 Cr, +14.3% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹93.0 Cr (−7.9%), and the 10-year compound rate is −7.3%.

FY26 profit ₹93.0 Cr (−7.9% YoY) Net profit bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 11-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
−7.3% a year over 10 years
Net profitYoY growth
214172%15694%9716%38−62%−20−141%₹ Cr%₹93−7.9%FY16FY21FY26
214172%15694%9716%38−62%−20−141%₹ Cr%₹93−7.9%FY16FY21FY26
Jun 26: ₹32.0 Cr (+14.3% YoY) Quarterly net profit bars, ₹ Cr (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
Net profit (quarterly)YoY growth
35260%26179%1799%918%0−62%₹ Cr%₹3214.3%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26
35260%26179%1799%918%0−62%₹ Cr%₹3214.3%Sep 23Dec 24Jun 26

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +18.2% and the margin +3.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −3.9% vs revenue +5.6%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

08 · Cash flow — the router

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 84% of Novartis India Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹47.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹93.0 Cr of profit. After ₹0.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹47.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹47.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹93.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹47.0 Cr after ₹0.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 84% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

FY26: CFO ₹47.0 Cr vs profit ₹93.0 Cr Operating cash flow and net profit by fiscal year, ₹ Cr; the line is free cash flow (CFO minus capital spending). 11-year window, annual resolution. FY20 reflects an acquisition year — point shown clipped.
84% of 3-year profit arrived as cash
Operating cashNet profitFree cash
2301130−122−239₹ Cr₹47₹93₹47FY16FY21FY26
2301130−122−239₹ Cr₹47₹93₹47FY16FY21FY26
FY26: CFO = 51% of profit (three-year rate 84%) Operating cash as a share of net profit, per fiscal year, % (line). Dashed line = 100% — every unit of profit arriving as cash.
Conversion100%
252%84%−84%−251%−419%%51%FY16FY21FY26
252%84%−84%−251%−419%%51%FY16FY21FY26

Why conversion sits at 84%: the cash cycle stretched 17 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

09 · Where the cash goes

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Novartis India Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 36 days in FY26, up from 19 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹−9.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹354 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹1.0 Cr, so roughly ₹35.0 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 38 days, inventory at 98 days — roughly 3.2 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 36 days, looser than FY21's 19.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 98 days to sell; customers pay about 38 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 101 days — netting out to the 36-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹354 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹1.0 Cr — so the 36-day loop keeps roughly ₹35.0 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

FY26: a 36-day cash cycle Debtor days, inventory days, payable days and the cash conversion cycle by fiscal year. 13-year window.
+17 days vs FY21
Cash cycleInventory daysDebtor daysPayable days
185123620−62days36d98d38d101dFY14FY17FY20FY23FY26
185123620−62days36d98d38d101dFY14FY20FY26

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹−9.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹7.0 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

FY26: capex ₹0.0 Cr, work-in-progress ₹0.0 Cr Capital spending per fiscal year, ₹ Cr (bars); capital work-in-progress, ₹ Cr (line). Quarterly capital-spending history is not held for India — annual is the honest resolution.
steady investment
CapexWork-in-progress
825222−8−38₹ Cr₹0₹0FY16FY18FY21FY23FY26
825222−8−38₹ Cr₹0₹0FY16FY21FY26

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

10 · Return on capital

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Novartis India Ltd earns a ROCE of 16% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 5% in FY20. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +35.0 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 26.3% net margin on 0.36× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 16%, recovered from a FY20 trough of 5% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 26.3% net margin × 0.36× asset turns × 1.20× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 11.4% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 47.0% − 12.0% = a +35.0 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every rupee reinvested creates more than a rupee of value — the engine compounds.

FY26: ROCE 16% Return on capital employed by fiscal year, % (line); ROIC by fiscal year, % (line). 13-year window, dips included. Dashed line = the 12.0% cost of capital used on this page.
the climb back from FY20's 5%
ROCEROIC (annual)WACC
46%35%24%13%1.9%%16%43.2%FY14FY20FY26
46%35%24%13%1.9%%16%43.2%FY14FY20FY26
Q4 FY26: ROCE 11.1% (TTM) vs WACC 12.0% Trailing-twelve-month ROCE and ROIC, per quarter, %; dashed line = the cost of capital. Last 12 quarters, put on a trailing-twelve-month basis and anchored to the annual figure.
ROCE (TTM)ROIC (TTM)WACC
51%39%27%15%3.1%%11.1%42.2%Q1 FY24Q2 FY25Q4 FY26
51%39%27%15%3.1%%11.1%42.2%Q1 FY24Q2 FY25Q4 FY26
11 · Debt

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Novartis India Ltd carries total debt of ₹3.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹818 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.00 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.03 in FY22 to 0.00 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹3.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹818 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.00. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.03 (FY22) to 0.00 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

FY26: debt ₹3.0 Cr at 0.00× equity Total debt by fiscal year, ₹ Cr (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). 5-year window.
Total debtDebt-to-equity
260.032×190.024×130.015×60.006×0−0.002×₹ Cr×₹30.00×FY22FY24FY26
260.032×190.024×130.015×60.006×0−0.002×₹ Cr×₹30.00×FY22FY24FY26
Mar 26: debt ₹3.0 Cr, debt-to-equity 0.00 Total debt per quarter, ₹ Cr (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). Last 12 quarters. India reports the full balance sheet half-yearly, so the intervening quarter carries the prior reading forward.
Total debt (quarterly)Debt-to-equity
240.032×180.024×120.015×60.006×0−0.002×₹ Cr×₹30.00×Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
240.032×180.024×120.015×60.006×0−0.002×₹ Cr×₹30.00×Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
12 · Ownership

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Novartis India Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Promoters moved +0.0 points over the same window, to 70.7%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +0.8 points over 8 quarters to 1.4%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 70.7%; Foreign institutions: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 0.2%.

Fiscal-year ends: promoters +0.0 pts from Mar 24 to Mar 26 Shareholding at each fiscal-year end (March quarter), % of the company. 3 year-ends held.
PromotersForeign inst.Domestic inst.Public
76%56%35%15%−5.5%%70.7%0.2%0.5%28.6%Mar 24Mar 25Mar 26
76%56%35%15%−5.5%%70.7%0.2%0.5%28.6%Mar 24Mar 25Mar 26
A quiet register: no holder moved a full point in two years Shareholding by holder class, % of the company, quarterly, last 13 quarters.
PromotersForeign inst.Domestic inst.Public
76%56%35%15%−5.5%%70.7%0.2%1.4%27.8%Jun 23Dec 24Jun 26
76%56%35%15%−5.5%%70.7%0.2%1.4%27.8%Jun 23Dec 24Jun 26
13 · Safety line

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Novartis India Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

14 · Related companies · Pharma - MNC bulk Drugs
CompanyScorePrice stageGrowth & earnings/35Capital efficiency/25Valuation/20Relative strength/20
1Procter & Gamble Health LtdPGHL 75.3/100Favorable setup90% evidence TURNING 28.7/35 Revenue 15.6% · PAT 30.7% · OPM change 11 pp 88% evidence 21.2/25 ROCE 83.5% · OPM 37% 100% evidence 14.6/20 P/E 33.5× · PEG 0.5 100% evidence 10.8/20 RS sector -2.5% · RS bench 12.6% · 1Y 13.7%11 of 11 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 28.7 + 21.2 + 14.6 + 10.8 = 75.3 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
2Sanofi Consumer Healthcare India LtdSANOFICONR 61.2/100Mixed-positive evidence67% evidence ASLEEP 26.9/35 Revenue 31% · PAT 33% · OPM change 6 pp 71% evidence 20.9/25 ROCE 89.9% · OPM 38% 76% evidence 9.4/20 P/E 39.9× · PEG — 15% evidence 4.0/20 RS sector -7.1% · RS bench -2.3% · 1Y -7.4%2 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 26.9 + 20.9 + 9.4 + 4 = 61.2 · Decision use: Acceleration candidate, not a confirmed leader: earnings are strong but sector-relative strength is -7.1% and the one-year return is -7.4%. Do not upgrade until sector-relative strength is above zero and another reported period confirms growth.
3Pfizer LtdPFIZER 53.7/100Mixed-positive evidence100% evidence TURNING 19.1/35 Revenue 10.6% · PAT -9.2% · OPM change 3 pp 100% evidence 13.8/25 ROCE 24.1% · OPM 38% 100% evidence 18.7/20 P/E 28.7× · PEG 0.73 100% evidence 2.1/20 RS sector -8% · RS bench -3.2% · 1Y -10.2%0 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 19.1 + 13.8 + 18.7 + 2.1 = 53.7 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
4Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals LtdGLAXO 49.0/100Mixed-negative evidence96% evidence TURNING 11.8/35 Revenue 1.9% · PAT 11.8% · OPM change 1 pp 88% evidence 17.4/25 ROCE 61.4% · OPM 35% 100% evidence 5.3/20 P/E 46.8× · PEG 6.68 100% evidence 14.5/20 RS sector -1% · RS bench 4.2% · 1Y -15.5%1 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 11.8 + 17.4 + 5.3 + 14.5 = 49 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 4.2%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.
5Abbott India LtdABBOTINDIA 48.8/100Mixed-negative evidence90% evidence TURNING 14.9/35 Revenue 8.1% · PAT 9.7% · OPM change 1 pp 88% evidence 15.7/25 ROCE 44.8% · OPM 28% 100% evidence 7.9/20 P/E 38.2× · PEG 2.56 100% evidence 10.3/20 RS sector -0.7% · RS bench -2.8% · 1Y -17.7%5 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 14.9 + 15.7 + 7.9 + 10.3 = 48.8 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
6Novartis India Ltdthis pageNOVARTIND 46.8/100Mixed-negative evidence100% evidence LEADER 13.3/35 Revenue 5.4% · PAT -4.9% · OPM change 3 pp 100% evidence 6.9/25 ROCE 16.2% · OPM 34% 100% evidence 6.6/20 P/E 38.8× · PEG 1.96 100% evidence 20.0/20 RS sector 42.3% · RS bench 49% · 1Y 51.6%12 of 12 weeks ahead 100% evidence
Exact sum: 13.3 + 6.9 + 6.6 + 20 = 46.8 · Decision use: Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 49%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.
7Astrazeneca Pharma India LtdASTRAZEN 40.7/100Mixed-negative evidence83% evidence ASLEEP 17.0/35 Revenue 32.6% · PAT 63.5% · OPM change -7 pp 88% evidence 8.6/25 ROCE 29.3% · OPM 11% 100% evidence 4.3/20 P/E 106× · PEG 3.95 65% evidence 10.8/20 RS sector 2.3% · RS bench -7.8% · 1Y -8.7%0 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 17 + 8.6 + 4.3 + 10.8 = 40.7 · Decision use: Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
8Sanofi India LtdSANOFI 49.6/100Thin evidence · provisional40% evidence ASLEEP 17.7/35 Revenue — · PAT — · OPM change 2 pp 5% evidence 15.0/25 ROCE 49.2% · OPM 23% 57% evidence 13.9/20 P/E 17.3× · PEG — 50% evidence 3.0/20 RS sector -26.7% · RS bench -18.8% · 1Y -43.3%0 of 10 weeks ahead 70% evidence
Exact sum: 17.7 + 15 + 13.9 + 3 = 49.6 · Decision use: Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

Missing observations are not scored as bad. Their missing weight lowers confidence and pulls the final score toward neutral. PEG is not shown when the ratio cannot mean anything: the company must be making a profit, its price-to-earnings must be positive, and its three-year earnings growth must fall between 5% and 60%. Dividing a price multiple by a loss, or by growth measured off a tiny base, produces a number that looks precise and tells you nothing. Under relative strength, one mark per week shows the last 12 weeks: a mark is filled where the company led NIFTY 500 by 5% or more over the 13 weeks ending that week, which is the same test used everywhere on this site. Price stage places the company on the same six-step curve the sector itself is placed on — basing, turning, breaking out, leader, fading, asleep — read from how many weeks running it has led NIFTY 500 and whether that lead is widening or shrinking. It describes where the PRICE stands, not the earnings trajectory and not a recommendation, and it is left blank for a company whose weekly history is too short or too stale to read.

15 · Frequently asked questions

Frequently asked questions

What is Novartis India Ltd's share price today?

Novartis India Ltd trades at ₹1,544, +59.7% over the past year. The company is valued at ₹3,795 Cr. The stock sits at 88% of its 52-week range of ₹769–₹1,647, +34.2% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a confirmed uptrend, 18 weeks in. — as of 31 July 2026.

What were Novartis India Ltd's latest quarterly results?

Novartis India Ltd reported revenue of ₹104 Cr and net profit of ₹32.0 Cr for the Jun 26 quarter. Revenue rose 18.2% and profit rose 14.3% year on year. Earnings per share were ₹13.05. The operating margin was 34.0%, 3.0 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 31 July 2026.

What is Novartis India Ltd's revenue?

Novartis India Ltd reported revenue of ₹104 Cr in the Jun 26 quarter, +18.2% year on year. For the full FY26 fiscal year, revenue was ₹354 Cr (−0.6%). Over the last 10 years revenue compounded at −6.5% a year. — as of 31 July 2026.

What is Novartis India Ltd's profit?

Novartis India Ltd earned ₹32.0 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +14.3% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹93.0 Cr. The operating margin ran 34.0% in the latest quarter. — as of 31 July 2026.

What is Novartis India Ltd's market cap?

Novartis India Ltd's market capitalisation is ₹3,795 Cr at a share price of ₹1,544. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 31 July 2026.

What is Novartis India Ltd's P/E ratio?

Novartis India Ltd trades at a P/E of 38.8×, at the 69th percentile of its own 10-year range, against a long-run median of 30.3×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 31 July 2026.

Does Novartis India Ltd pay a dividend?

Not in its latest year — Novartis India Ltd's dividend payout was 0% of profit in FY26. It did record a payout in 11 of its last 13 reported fiscal years, so there is a history but no current dividend. This page holds the payout ratio, not a per-share amount. — as of 31 July 2026.

Is Novartis India Ltd overvalued?

On its own history, Novartis India Ltd looks expensive against its own history: its P/E of 38.8× sits at the 69th percentile of its 10-year range (long-run median 30.3×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. One caveat: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. — as of 31 July 2026.

Is Novartis India Ltd growing?

Yes — Novartis India Ltd is growing: latest-quarter revenue +18.2% year on year, profit +14.3%, and the margin +3.0 pp at 34.0%. The 10-year compound rates are −6.5% (revenue) and −7.3% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 31 July 2026.

How is Novartis India Ltd performing?

Novartis India Ltd is in a confirmed uptrend, 18 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 18.2% and profit rose 14.3% year on year. Against the NIFTY 500 it has been ahead on a trailing-13-week view for 2 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 31 July 2026.

What stage is Novartis India Ltd in?

Topping out — profit and EPS growth have decelerated hard (profit growth +45.3% at its peak → −4.9% latest) while ROCE still reads 16.0%. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +5.4% latest, profit growth −4.9% latest, eps growth −4.9% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 31 July 2026.

Is Novartis India Ltd in an uptrend?

Yes — the price is in a confirmed uptrend (week 18 of stage 2), trading +34.2% versus its 200-day average and at 88% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 31 July 2026.

Is Novartis India Ltd beating the market?

On recent form, yes — Novartis India Ltd has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 2 straight weeks, the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +144% against the NIFTY 500's +282% — behind the index over the full window. — as of 31 July 2026.

Will Novartis India Ltd's share price go up?

This page publishes no price forecast for Novartis India Ltd. What it measures instead: the share price is ₹1,544, the price is in a confirmed uptrend 18 weeks in. Its P/E of 38.8× sits at the 69th percentile of its own 10-year range. — as of 31 July 2026.

Who owns Novartis India Ltd?

Promoters hold 70.7% of Novartis India Ltd, foreign institutions 0.2%, domestic institutions 1.4% and the public 27.8% (latest quarter). No holder moved a full point over the last two years — the register is quiet. — as of 31 July 2026.

Does Novartis India Ltd have too much debt?

No — Novartis India Ltd's debt-to-equity is 0.00, and operating profit covers the interest bill 94×. FY26 borrowings were ₹3.0 Cr against equity of ₹817 Cr. The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed — as of 31 July 2026.

What is Novartis India Ltd's capex?

Novartis India Ltd spent ₹−9.0 Cr on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY26 alone that was ₹0.0 Cr, with ₹0.0 Cr in capital work-in-progress — capacity paid for but not yet earning. — as of 31 July 2026.

What is Novartis India Ltd's cash flow?

Novartis India Ltd generated ₹47.0 Cr of operating cash flow in FY26 and ₹47.0 Cr of free cash flow after ₹0.0 Cr of capital spending. Reported profit that year was ₹93.0 Cr, so operating cash ran behind profit. Cash-flow resolution for India is annual. — as of 31 July 2026.

Is Novartis India Ltd's profit real cash?

Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 84% of Novartis India Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY26, operating cash was ₹47.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹93.0 Cr. The cash then goes into a mix of the working-capital cycle and capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 31 July 2026.

Where is Novartis India Ltd in its business cycle?

Novartis India Ltd's FY26 operating margin was 27.0%, against a 13-year band of −1.1%–27.0%: the top of the band — a record year. Record profitability is late-cycle territory: every ratio flatters at the top, and the story leans on margins holding. The latest quarter ran 34.0%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 31 July 2026.

What could break the Novartis India Ltd story?

The sharpest disagreement: the price moved +59.7% in a year while annual EPS moved −7.7% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 31 July 2026.

Is Novartis India Ltd a stock worth studying right now?

This is not investment advice. The machine read: Novartis India Ltd's price has outrun its earnings. +59.7% in a year against EPS −7.7% — the market is paying now for delivery later. The sharpest open question: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 31 July 2026.

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